Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
|
Post by Dave on Jul 13, 2023 1:09:17 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
|
Post by Dave on Jul 13, 2023 1:25:49 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
|
Post by Dave on Jul 13, 2023 1:32:18 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
|
Post by chinacat on Jul 13, 2023 5:13:22 GMT -8
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Jul 13, 2023 6:07:04 GMT -8
"Now could be the worst time to buy Apple stock. Yes, really—just look at Robert Shiller's famous CAPE metric"
Clickbait BS Fortune article. Look at the last paragraph where he dismisses the whole premise: “The Shiller P/E doesn’t tell us everything, and in the Apple example, that gigantic multiple of 61 is misleading.”
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jul 13, 2023 9:06:37 GMT -8
"Based on Nasdaq 100 methodology, the combined weight of the five companies with the largest market caps will be set to 38.5%. The five-largest companies, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Nvidia had a combined weight of 46.7%. That suggests some notable reduced weightings for these names."
So if all were the same, 7.7%. But it does not suggest all 5 will be the same. Apple is 12.5 now. MSFT about the same. NVDA 7+ and rising. Bezos 6.8 Zuck less than 5. So do you reduce proportionately or by some random number? Looks like a 20% reduction in apple might be in the cards. Maybe they will set a max at 10% of the index?
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Jul 13, 2023 9:35:33 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 13, 2023 10:55:03 GMT -8
I saw the article, but didn't think of Apple being a potential. Good thought.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Jul 13, 2023 16:25:52 GMT -8
"help it transition to a direct-to-consumer model."
Hmm. Who is good at direct-to-consumer? Apple could increase ESPN's value to Disney. Apple gets great sports content to deliver to Apple Vision users. I'm not sure Apple needs exclusivity, just the best delivered premium experience via Vision Pro. Subscribers will pay a premium.
What is the complexity of filming a game to deliver to Vision Pro? It can't be easy or inexpensive.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Jul 13, 2023 16:33:24 GMT -8
www.networthspot.com/espn/net-worth/How much does ESPN earn? ESPN earns an estimated $18.4 thousand a month. ESPN has 20.44 million on TikTok and has actually published 4498 videos. If ESPN were to sell a shoutout, they could on average capture 20.44 thousand per post each day. If ESPN were to offer a shoutout per day, the channel could make $18.4 thousand every month on average. If we take a look at the yearly potential, this could drive $223.82 thousand in income potential each year. When it comes to a profile with a high engagement rate, the authentic revenue may be as high as $1.87 million monthly. That's because higher engagement accounts are able to require greater prices. If a marketer buys a shoutout on a low-engagement profile, they may possibly see a lower return on their financial investment. Yet if an advertiser purchases a shoutout on a high engagement account, they might see much more interactions and purchases than other profiles with similar followings. That's why engagement is really a vital part of an TikTok profile. Less, more engaged fans are worth a lot more than more, disengaged followers.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Jul 13, 2023 17:13:35 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Jul 14, 2023 8:47:55 GMT -8
Aren't these earnings attributed to Disney via ESPN just from some youtube channel? ESPN would be a great acquisition, maybe then Apple would show something besides soccer and baseball?
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Jul 14, 2023 9:55:12 GMT -8
Aren't these earnings attributed to Disney via ESPN just from some youtube channel? ESPN would be a great acquisition, maybe then Apple would show something besides soccer and baseball? TV shows and movies are still a strange area for Apple to be in. When I think of Apple, I don't immediately think of sports TV, or vice versa. The Apple TV hardware was already a hobby, almost a hedge that if computer useage changed to be centered around a big TV screen, then Apple wanted a piece of that. And it is in some aspects, whether as a streaming device or a gaming device. And there's the potential of it being the center of your digital home hub, with it as one of the few things that might make the most sense to have on all the time, doubling or tripling up it's functionality, if you include the primary use, being the home hub for all smart things, and also being a router for all home internet. But TV shows and movies? Sure, Apple has a lot of users that help create those. And you might play them on your devices. One of the reasons for creating TV shows and movies is to stay relevant in the area, both having a stepping stone if needing it, but also making sure that all the streaming competitors see a reason to support your hardware and platform. That's much less of an issue these days, but it wasn't that long ago that it was more of a thing. OTOH, with how focused Apple has remained in most things, it is a little surprising to me that they have put so much into making shows and movies. The tie-in just doesn't seem as solid as in other areas. It seems they would be better as the digital store for all media, as iTunes was. But maybe the first step in getting good terms there is being a decent competitor and bringing people to your platform. We still have a horrible time picking a movie for the family. We can watch a bunch of trailers on a platform, but that tends to take a long time. Most platforms don't seem to have a good way to hunt down what you really want in a quick manner, such as tying in star ratings, IMDB or Rotten Tomatoes ratings, or movie ratings or reasoning (maybe you are ok with an R rated movie if it is due to language but not violence). And then if you do find quite a few and write a list, you have no idea if the movie will still be available next time. Going to blockbuster (or the equivalent) wasn't always easy either. But it seems like in this day and age, it should be possible to use multiple filters. OTOH, the low rated junk movies must be cheaper for the companies to add to their services, so it might not be in their best interest to make easy ways to filter them out. Sad but true. We'll see how Apple goes about it. Like the EV market, there are times where the big players can come in and make good deals, even if they are looking years out to make a profit. Apple has the cash flow and resources that it can make some good deals, especially when there is some turbulence. And I trust that Apple has a plan around it, even if it doesn't seem like the best fit to me.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Jul 14, 2023 10:19:24 GMT -8
Wonderful post, 4aapl ! ! Truly thoughtful ! !
I, like you, have one heck of a time trying to find a movie that I and my lady friend would like to watch. And I really do put an effort into it.
I usually find one or more movies, but it takes mucho time, and often includes Amazon as well. But it is basically a mindless process.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Jul 14, 2023 10:43:40 GMT -8
I, like you, have one heck of a time trying to find a movie that I and my lady friend would like to watch. And I really do put an effort into it. I usually find one or more movies, but it takes mucho time, and often includes Amazon as well. But it is basically a mindless process. Sometimes having more choices makes it more difficult. When there were only 3 movies across the 7 broadcast TV stations, somehow a choice was quickly made. I really liked the way Netflix worked 2 decades ago, with a good algo on making recommendations, but also the availability of nearly any movie, even if you had to wait a bit. Now days the closest to that on availability both of new movies, but also older ones, is our local library. And while the new releases might have a huge backlog that takes 6 weeks, I can generally get something older like "Back to the Future" in a couple days, delivered to my library a mile away. Basically for anything that has been out on DVD for at least 4 months, they are the way to go, though I have to plan ahead by at least 3-4 days. But no one seems to have the whole enchilada anymore. I still remember the TV commercial from around 21 years ago, where the guy is getting a room in some run down motel in the middle of no where. He asks the young clerk what movies they have, and she drolly says something like "We have every movie ever made". This was back in the time of TIVO, and Apple was working on a set top box streamer that a guy working on Quicktime would test, and I think they even had a product in the European market. If Apple wants to own every electronics market that you are engaged with, from morning to night, then having the media platform with that makes sense. It does come down to the catalog, and so producing part of the catalog can make sense. It's not a direct perfect match, but it's not too far out. Especially if it turns out that a big portion of the viewing time is spent watching non-blockbusters, whether TV or movies. Each person is different, but reading a story this morning on the stock app of a guy with a you-tube channel where he loses $300k a year to slot machines, but makes a nice profit for himself and his team's paychecks through advertising, sponsorships, etc including a bunch of cruises, I'm reminded that there are a lot of ways to make money and a lot of content that people are interested in. I would think the goal for Apple would be to both have a good catalog that maybe 50% or more of the viewing comes from, while also having the ability to rent/stream another 25% or more of things that people want to see. Ideally you would want 100% availability, but in this day and age of multiple streaming options for pretty cheap, that might not be the goal even if I think Apple would really like to be the aggregator on the media front. But owning a good catalog gives them options and leverage.
|
|