bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 4, 2023 5:56:32 GMT -8
I'll do it if no one else wants to. Looks like the bears were pissed about the AI bump. I don't mind picking up a few more shares
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 4, 2023 6:00:43 GMT -8
Thanks for the open bud
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Aug 4, 2023 6:11:50 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,428
Member is Online
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Post by chinacat on Aug 4, 2023 6:38:54 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Aug 4, 2023 7:32:34 GMT -8
My old 90/120 BCS sold today (at nearly full value). I don't know why the order triggered today, it's been in place for months GTC.
And I just bought a '24 170/190 BCS. Just a bit for now, but I will probably add some more with time. I use BCS for "playing".
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Post by kpas1 on Aug 4, 2023 8:58:49 GMT -8
My old 90/120 BCS sold today (at nearly full value). I don't know why the order triggered today, it's been in place for months GTC. And I just bought a '24 170/190 BCS. Just a bit for now, but I will probably add some more with time. I use BCS for "playing". I have something similar: 105-110 Jan '24 BuCS. My GTC order is 97% full value ($4.85/$5) but it doesn't seem to want to fill yet. Do you ever try to leg into these or just BTO the spread? Looks to me like 170/190 would be about 65% ROI which is quite lucrative as it is.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 4, 2023 9:04:28 GMT -8
I'm trying to keep in mind how excited I was by $185 only a few weeks ago.
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Post by kpas1 on Aug 4, 2023 9:09:14 GMT -8
The last 48 hours were not kind to my short-term double diagonal strategy. The expected move was ~$8 which would have been fine, but the post ER drop came on the heels of a $5 drop (T-bill downgrade news?) so it was $11 from Wed. to today. That's a big dip in a short time. But it's a chance to go long at some point soon, right?.
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duckpins
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Post by duckpins on Aug 4, 2023 9:44:15 GMT -8
Saw a talking head on one of the financials saying Apple need to innovate. Stunning thought. I can't believe these guys get paid for that. The cycle pattern chartists are saying a buy opportunity comes for many stocks mid august...with a bull market resumption late October. I like long term options. 868 days to go up to 4 trillion if you buy the Dec 25's.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 4, 2023 9:51:54 GMT -8
The "Glass Half Full" view is that at least AAPL's RSI is now down to 37.4. Indicating it's close to oversold.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 4, 2023 10:17:40 GMT -8
I'm trying to keep in mind how excited I was by $185 only a few weeks ago. Just picked up a small amount of shares at just under 185, and then a few shares in my kids Roths at a little above 184. I put in another small order at 182. I don't expect it to get there, but... With Apple giving increased EPS and beating posted expectations, it seems this is mainly a slow down on forward looking hopes by investors. I don't know what the next 3-6 months will bring, even if often there is a pre-iphone announcement bump up. But Apple saying they expect YOY revenue to match this quarter, so down 1.5%, shows they aren't expecting a jump. Yet. And that makes sense. This is a slow quarter. People getting excited about the next new thing often means they let off a bit on the current cool thing. While I think there are decent odds that in the shorter term things will go up, in the medium term of say 1 year out I think it is pretty likely things will be up. 70%? 80%? 90% chance? If the downside is only in the short term, or in missing out on an even lower price, then it's not a terrible downside. It depends on an investor's timeframes and needs. I decided to go for it, even though I sold a few shares at ~194 just over a month ago. Each day is different. Thanks Apple
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duckpins
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Post by duckpins on Aug 4, 2023 10:39:07 GMT -8
Cramer' fibonacci lady might say the next level of support is near 175. Clearly this is more than just about earnings which were good. Apple and TSLA have more haters than any other stock on Wall Street, so kicking them when they are down is like...Soccer for bankers? I mentioned the new weekly channel. Of course it has been breached by this selling. Pretty impressively.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 4, 2023 11:16:26 GMT -8
Clearly this is more than just about earnings which were good. Apple and TSLA have more haters than any other stock on Wall Street The market is just more forward looking than most things, and ideally forward looking with acceleration (or deceleration). It's a bit like throwing a flight delay while the plane is taxiing on the runway. The plane will probably still take off. But it puts a monkey wrench into the exact timing of the event.
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Aug 4, 2023 11:44:22 GMT -8
With the market closing soon, I just entered the rest of my 2023 Roth conversion which will go through at today's closing price - so, thanks to everyone who helped push AAPL down today in order to maximize my non-taxable gains. (I just wish I did even more back in Feb.)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 4, 2023 12:06:17 GMT -8
With the market closing soon, I just entered the rest of my 2023 Roth conversion which will go through at today's closing price - so, thanks to everyone who helped push AAPL down today in order to maximize my non-taxable gains. (I just wish I did even more back in Feb.) Good timing! Looks like my second order squeaked by in the last minute, picking up a few more shares at $182.03. The thrill of picking up some shares within pennies of the daily low helps dull the huge downward move for the day, while at the same time I realize that this might not be the relative low. Earnings themselves might not justify the move, but possibly being a little bubbly for the current conditions to undervaluing it a bit can make a quick change. Ahhh, investor sentiment can be so fickle.
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Post by zebrum on Aug 4, 2023 13:09:58 GMT -8
A few other stocks have made exactly the same dip and everything is calm after hours so I think next week we'll be back on track
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 4, 2023 13:26:35 GMT -8
If you are looking for some non-Apple investing articles, these two pair in an interesting way: First is Charlie Munger, basically saying to not be diversified. Instead, own just a few, and really know them. OTOH, the comments seem to be right, that if you don't have the time and energy to put in to pick out the very best, index funds might be best. And then there is the middle ground that Fisher Investments pushes, of not being just in the indexes but also not only aiming for a home run, instead mostly owning the market but getting rid of a sector you think will do worse, and doubling up on a sector that you think will do better. Lots of methods out there.... finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-asks-want-more-151617368.htmlBut then at the bottom of that article, for me at least, was this one on Benzinga, about a new RV rental business, and investing in it. www.benzinga.com/news/23/07/33449799/new-airbnb-for-rvs-platform-takes-on-540-million-rv-rental-market-with-25-in-savings-and-50-000-forMaybe it's a great service, and maybe it is a great company. OTOH, chances are that they will go the model of spending all or more than they earn in the first years, all in the name of growth. And that can work, but it's also tempting to overspend on a calculated basis, and then hit an unexpected issue (downturn, high gas prices, less interest in RVs, more buying of RVs, etc) that then really hits the leveraged position hard. I guess it just reminded me of how tempting it can be at times to go for the lottery ticket position. And that might be justified at times (I really don't know if the 2nd of the 2 big summer lottery jackpots was hit, but both were roughly at par with the ticket costs and odds, and taxes too if you wrote off your losses. But some of these little guys can be tempting for new investors, and now there are more ways to get around some of the traditional roadblocks (ie needing to be an accredited investor). Maybe that's good, but it seems like letting more people get into riskier investments probably isn't good. AAPL makes it look easy, over the long and very long term. 30+% annualized returns over the last 25 years makes it easier to forgive or forget the major downturns along the way.
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Post by firestorm on Aug 6, 2023 3:31:12 GMT -8
If you are looking for some non-Apple investing articles, these two pair in an interesting way: "First is Charlie Munger, basically saying to not be diversified. Instead, own just a few, and really know them. OTOH, the comments seem to be right, that if you don't have the time and energy to put in to pick out the very best, index funds might be best. And then there is the middle ground that Fisher Investments pushes, of not being just in the indexes but also not only aiming for a home run, instead mostly owning the market but getting rid of a sector you think will do worse, and doubling up on a sector that you think will do better. Lots of methods out there...." finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-asks-want-more-151617368.htmlMy method favored the home run by investing mostly in AAPL for years. At the time it went against all "common sense" investment strategies, but it left me reasonably comfortable for my latter years.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 6, 2023 20:17:46 GMT -8
If you are looking for some non-Apple investing articles, these two pair in an interesting way: "First is Charlie Munger, basically saying to not be diversified. Instead, own just a few, and really know them. OTOH, the comments seem to be right, that if you don't have the time and energy to put in to pick out the very best, index funds might be best. And then there is the middle ground that Fisher Investments pushes, of not being just in the indexes but also not only aiming for a home run, instead mostly owning the market but getting rid of a sector you think will do worse, and doubling up on a sector that you think will do better. Lots of methods out there...." finance.yahoo.com/news/charlie-munger-asks-want-more-151617368.htmlMy method favored the home run by investing mostly in AAPL for years. At the time it went against all "common sense" investment strategies, but it left me reasonably comfortable for my latter years. Most of us here favored this method, in some sort or other. And we did well, so we can pat ourselves on the back. OTOH, would we advise it to someone else. If we did, what stock would we suggest today, maybe 20-25-30 years after we first got into investing in Apple? On an institutional basis, they are limited to how much they can have in a certain stock. And one of the ones that we might despise the most, Cathy with ARK, is probably the closest known institutional that is investing the way we probably did, betting big on something she thinks could be a high flyer. OPM is a whole different beast, since you do have some responsibility to not be completely risky. There's ways to do it, like some Hedge Funds. But by and large you probably wouldn't suggest to someone today, whether a loved one, friend, or even someone you don't know, that they should invest the same way you did. And if you feel that you would, what stock or stocks would you put a concentrated portfolio into? Would you do the same if thinking they would be in those the next 10-20 years? What if they needed money in 3 years for a down payment? What if they didn't have the same stubborn determination to stick in particular investments, even if they were down 50% or more? Maybe some people would still say to put 50% to 125% into AAPL for the next 10-30 years. But just because it let me retire more than a decade ago in my 30's doesn't mean I would suggest it to anyone else. I think Apple is great and expect AAPL to beat the indexes for the next few years and at least match them for 5 or more years out. But for another 25 years? It might happen, just as AAPL might continue its 25 year annualized rate and make me a billionaire before I reach 60. But I'm not counting on it. For my kids, I'm suggesting they split their investments into thirds or sixths. That seems concentrated enough, even considering the small account balances.
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