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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 7, 2023 5:04:01 GMT -8
Starting the thread. Out of town, but will try to add more late.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 7, 2023 5:31:02 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 7, 2023 5:35:03 GMT -8
What to Expect in the Markets Next WeekEvents Calendar: Monday, August 7KKR & Company (KKR), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), BioNTech (BNTX), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Tyson Foods (TSN), Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS), Lucid Group (LCID), Paramount Global (PARA), and Viatris Inc. (VTRS) report earnings Manheim Consulting Used Vehicle Price Index (Jul) China Trade Balance (Jul) Tuesday, August 8Eli Lilly & Company (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Zoetis Inc. (ZTS), Duke Energy Corp. (DUK), Li Auto (LI), GlobalFoundries Inc. (GFS), Sun Life Financial (SLF), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) report earnings U.S. Trade Balance (Jun) Wholesale Inventories (Jun) NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jul) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Aug) New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report (Q2 2023) Wednesday, August 9The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Honda Motor Company (HMC), Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC), Illumina (ILMN), Roblox Corporation (RBLX), U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL), and Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) report earnings Thursday, August 10Alibaba Group (BABA), Brookfield Corporation (BN), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM), News Corporation (NWS), and US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) report earnings Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Report (Jul) Friday, August 11Spectrum Brands Holding Inc. (SPB) and Soho House & Co. (SHCO) reports earnings Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation Report (Jul) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Preliminary (Aug) U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Preliminary Reading (Q2 2023) The Latest Inflation ReadingsWe’ll get the latest updates on inflation next week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. Consumer prices likely rose 0.2% last month, matching June’s rate, and were likely up 3.3% on an annual basis. This would mark an acceleration from June’s 3% rate, which had a favorable year-over-year base effect as inflation peaked in June 2022. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was likely unchanged at 4.8%, the slowest pace since October 2021. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will issue the July PPI, tracking inflation from the standpoint of manufacturers and wholesalers. Producer prices are projected to have risen 0.2% last month, after rising 0.1% in June. Year-over-year, they were likely up 0.7%, compared to an annual gain of just 0.1% in June, which marked the smallest increase since a decline in August 2020. Consumer Sentiment UpdateOn Friday, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary August reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), providing an update on consumer confidence. The index reading is projected at 71, down just slightly from 71.6 last month. July’s reading was the highest in two years, as consumers became more optimistic on the economy and their finances amid slowing inflation and a strong jobs market. While consumer sentiment is still well below pre-pandemic levels, it’s a stark reversal from last year, when the index hit an all-time low of 50 amid the highest inflation in four decades.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 7, 2023 6:46:46 GMT -8
I am not normally one to engage in pessimism here, but I have a hard time envisioning a near-term catalyst for the stock, given how hardware growth has stalled. I don’t think the services story can offset that.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,428
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Post by chinacat on Aug 7, 2023 9:03:23 GMT -8
I am not normally one to engage in pessimism here, but I have a hard time envisioning a near-term catalyst for the stock, given how hardware growth has stalled. I don’t think the services story can offset that. Can I assume that you are a trader? The bounce back from the 130’s has been breathtaking IMHO, roughly a 50% increase as of last week, along with collecting solid, if a bit underwhelming, dividend payments along the way. Hopefully, you exploited your trading expertise to place your bets at the most advantageous times. With the Fall releases on deck, hardware sales are due for a near term bump, going into the holidays. Meanwhile, services provide a dependable cushion to offset the more variable seasonal performance of hardware sales. That’s the point of a strategy that leverages both product strengths, for which I say “Thanks, Tim.”
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Post by duckpins on Aug 7, 2023 10:04:48 GMT -8
Looks like the surrogate Apple, BRK, had great earnings. Broke through its old high. Now into uncharted waters. Should be little resistance to a move higher. Apple oversold so at some point we fill in the gap.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 7, 2023 12:35:56 GMT -8
Apple oversold so at some point we fill in the gap. Closing RSI of 29.57. Historically AAPL rarely gets below 35, and very rarely gets below 30. That doesn't mean it won't go lower, or that it won't stay around here for a bit. But historically, it doesn't. My son decided to get a few (yes, 3) more shares of AAPL, and a share of NVDA. The girls bought shares of AAPL on Friday, for a third of their account. It's good to get them all thinking about investing and the market, even if it's just to not be scared into being overly conservative with long term retirement accounts. Better to learn early when the values are low. There's always something to learn, even if it seems like the basics. My son got a screw in a tire last week, and today the relative's car didn't start, potentially from their son charging and such in the car while we were still hiking. It's good that they at least know what jumper cables are, but their son was even able to look up a you-tube video of resetting the car, which helped after the first few jump and recharge sessions weren't working. What a different world.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Aug 7, 2023 13:14:46 GMT -8
My old 90/120 BCS sold today (at nearly full value). I don't know why the order triggered today, it's been in place for months GTC. And I just bought a '24 170/190 BCS. Just a bit for now, but I will probably add some more with time. I use BCS for "playing". I have something similar: 105-110 Jan '24 BuCS. My GTC order is 97% full value ($4.85/$5) but it doesn't seem to want to fill yet. Do you ever try to leg into these or just BTO the spread? Looks to me like 170/190 would be about 65% ROI which is quite lucrative as it is. It's more lucrative today. I doubled my position (Mar '24 170/190 BCS) today. Today's trade has a potential ~75% return. I don't leg in, and while often tempted, I don't leg out (unless I am assigned on a short call of course). For example, today I was tempted to leg out, could buy the 190 call I sold for 30% less. BUT, that action is the functional equivalent of buying a 190 call, and that action requires adding capital to the trade, and if I'm going to add capital, I will increase the size of the trade ... as I did today.
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Aug 7, 2023 15:15:50 GMT -8
Looks like the surrogate Apple, BRK, had great earnings. Broke through its old high. Now into uncharted waters. Should be little resistance to a move higher. Apple oversold so at some point we fill in the gap. BRK's move in the last few days doesn't really make sense in the context that 46% of BRK is AAPL. But sense (if AAPL @$178 is sense?) at BRK seems to have caught up in the afterhours. The perennial question.... is Maestri taking this opportunity to splurge on AAPL buybacks? ...or does the bloodletting have a bit more to go? Down 9% in the past 5 days. I miss Artman...
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Post by hledgard on Aug 7, 2023 15:55:37 GMT -8
Me too...
Maybe he will be on vacation for a while.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 7, 2023 19:06:49 GMT -8
I am not normally one to engage in pessimism here, but I have a hard time envisioning a near-term catalyst for the stock, given how hardware growth has stalled. I don’t think the services story can offset that. Can I assume that you are a trader? The bounce back from the 130’s has been breathtaking IMHO, roughly a 50% increase as of last week, along with collecting solid, if a bit underwhelming, dividend payments along the way. Hopefully, you exploited your trading expertise to place your bets at the most advantageous times. With the Fall releases on deck, hardware sales are due for a near term bump, going into the holidays. Meanwhile, services provide a dependable cushion to offset the more variable seasonal performance of hardware sales. That’s the point of a strategy that leverages both product strengths, for which I say “Thanks, Tim.” No, I am absolutely not a trader. Long term buy and hold. Just an observation on the near term. I don’t think we have seen hardware growth stagnant for this long before though.
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