aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Aug 8, 2023 2:30:24 GMT -8
Good morning. AAPL is trading at $179.30 (+.51 or +.29%) in premarket trading at this time.
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Post by zebrum on Aug 8, 2023 3:06:31 GMT -8
Hope everyone picked up some cheap shares yesterday. Crazy it was at Dec 2021 levels.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 8, 2023 5:21:08 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Aug 8, 2023 5:22:15 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 8, 2023 5:49:50 GMT -8
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve should be delighted at seeing that their actions have crashed the greatest economy in the world. I'm curious to see what their next step may be.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Aug 8, 2023 5:57:29 GMT -8
MacRumors has Apple Planning to Test AI Services Using Foxconn Servers. “During Apple's earnings call last week, CEO Tim Cook said that AI and machine learning are "core fundamental technologies integral to virtually every product" that Apple builds. AI is apparently "absolutely critical" to Apple, with Cook confirming that Apple has been investigating generative AI "for years."
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Aug 8, 2023 7:28:30 GMT -8
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve should be delighted at seeing that their actions have crashed the greatest economy in the world. I'm curious to see what their next step may be. How is the economy "crashed?" What metrics are you looking at? Inflation before interest rate hikes started: 9% Inflation now......................................... 4% How would you have handled the situation, Dave? Just curious.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 8, 2023 7:59:47 GMT -8
And this is why it’s a good idea to consider selling at RSI > 70. Even though you might not hit the exact top, you’ll always have a chance to buy back lower eventually.
At RSI < 30 this has historically been a good buy point
Your mileage may vary, past performance doesn’t equal future results
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 8, 2023 8:14:25 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 8, 2023 8:57:17 GMT -8
I just don't see the emerging market side to be directly related to the Fed rate. It could be if there were drastic changes to demand, but the trade deficit only ticked down a little. And most places have their own interest rate setting organization, with Hungary in the EU, and the article saying: Gasoline and new mortgages combined might be at a 20 year high, but how much does that matter? On gasoline, you'd want to take into account the number of miles driven, the average gas mileage, and the other options. Obviously it hurts some people more than others, and like in all things there are always going to be some edge cases. People taking flights and lines at Starbucks might not encompass the complete population, but it might give a good picture of up to 80% of the population. For mortgages, the article says only 10% of existing US mortgages have interest rates over 6%. New fix rate mortgages have high rates, compared to the last 10-25 years. But how many people does that affect? I could see the possibility of low supply still being an issue, but in most things it doesn't seem like there is still low supply. There is a lower supply in housing that is likely bolstering pricing, and that has a mix of causes including new construction and existing listings, but there are likely other causes mixed in like foreign and domestic investors in general, VRBO type investors (buying to use as a short term rental) along with people buying additional homes for themselves. While these might not be huge positions in all places, the housing supply in total is tight enough that I think small changes can still cause big differences. It seems like most new cars have caught up, but I also see supply issues in hybrids from Toyota. I'd expect other hybrid options with meaningful gas mileage increases, including Honda and at least some Ford options but probably other similar ones too, would also still have some supply issues. It might not be completely balanced yet, but it is a lot closer, and that is working into the new and used pricing. Dave and others, where are you still seeing supply side issues, especially that could be improved with lower interest rates for companies to increase their production?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 8, 2023 9:06:53 GMT -8
There’s still a supply side problem in the labor market. Unemployment is very low and companies are still having trouble filling open positions, particularly in low-pay, low-skilled areas such as restaurant work, cleaning, farm work, etc. because of this, wages are going up, which isn’t a bad thing but it contributes to inflation when businesses pass those costs on to consumers.
The Fed’s way of addressing this is to keep raising rates until some restaurants and farms go out of business, some offices close down and don’t need cleaners, etc. Recession. Would lower demand for labor until it comes into balance with limited supply.
Another way of addressing this would be to increase the supply of labor — thru immigration. Because of stricter rules put in place, immigration has been going down for the last 10 years. The US economic growth thrived partly because of a supply of inexpensive labor from immigration. Now without that, the gears of growth are grinding slower.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 8, 2023 9:40:55 GMT -8
Apple is pausing at the 100 day MA. So next stop is either the 200 day MA at about 167 or the gap fill at 176. The 14 day RSI is at 30...usually there is a choppy decline, this is a strait line. History shows the decline stopping when the 14 day RSI is near or below 30. But History shows that 30 is often not the real bottom. We will see. A few days of choppiness where the price goes up resets the rsi and then we can go down to the 200 MA or to the gap fill. Filling the gap and turning would be a good continuation for the bulls.
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Post by hledgard on Aug 8, 2023 9:53:35 GMT -8
Much as I am in deep, I think the future of AAPL is not very bright at the moment. As best I can see, Apple has three big projects on the back burner.
1. Vision Pro. Unless it is a big gaming hit, I do not think there will be much return.
2. Generative AI. I think this sounds so cool, but it is not that much. AI is an excellent field, but generative AI has not much real promise in my view.
3. CarPlay and Self-Driving. That seems to have the most promise. Auto interfaces seem to be getting worse over time, and the potential market and depth of contribution by Apple is potentially a real plus. Self-driving is a huge area, but it is a tough nut to crack.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 8, 2023 10:04:21 GMT -8
There’s still a supply side problem in the labor market. Unemployment is very low and companies are still having trouble filling open positions, particularly in low-pay, low-skilled areas such as restaurant work, cleaning, farm work, etc. because of this, wages are going up, which isn’t a bad thing but it contributes to inflation when businesses pass those costs on to consumers. The Fed’s way of addressing this is to keep raising rates until some restaurants and farms go out of business, some offices close down and don’t need cleaners, etc. Recession. Would lower demand for labor until it comes into balance with limited supply. Another way of addressing this would be to increase the supply of labor — thru immigration. Because of stricter rules put in place, immigration has been going down for the last 10 years. The US economic growth thrived partly because of a supply of inexpensive labor from immigration. Now without that, the gears of growth are grinding slower. Part of that is also the participation rate, which a graph I saw showed much higher than recent times, but still with some room for increases compared to some of the highest times over the past 10 years or so. But even that is hard to compare, as it might not fully take into account some of the side hustles or things people do but want to keep/consider to be under the table. There are some longer term ways to change some of these things, and the best plan is to likely hit it wide by touching a lot of things. Taxes, path to legalizing current immigrants, college/training costs and cycle, housing costs, etc. They all work somewhat together, and there are multiple ways to deal with them, with some more heavy handed or government oversight influenced. But the main "needs" are thinking ahead by a decade or more to where we want the country to be, while also working on unifying the country. IMO Sometimes politics moves so slowly, and many point out that this is by design. But it also causes people to get fed up with it all when they feel some big changes are needed, and feel that an outsider could be best to mix things up. Schwarzenegger? Venture? Others for the same reasons? Conversely, sometimes it is just small changes that need to be made at first, and then additional ones as needed. An article talking of all the semiconductor job needs led to the page with the Phoenix area giving a $291 stipend (pays for it all for locals except the $15 reg fee) to take a 10 day course at the community college to get a job that normally pays $25-30/hr (starts at 20-25). It could help, but my guess is that if they push the steadiness of the job or area, and maybe even a $1k bonus once employed for 2 years, they might get even more takers. info.maricopacorporate.com/semiconductor(EDIT: original full article at finance.yahoo.com/news/chipmakers-have-plans-for-new-us-factories-but-not-enough-workers-to-run-them-113827037.html )
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 8, 2023 11:09:47 GMT -8
Gasoline and new mortgages combined might be at a 20 year high, but how much does that matter? On gasoline, you'd want to take into account the number of miles driven, the average gas mileage, and the other options. Obviously it hurts some people more than others, and like in all things there are always going to be some edge cases. People taking flights and lines at Starbucks might not encompass the complete population, but it might give a good picture of up to 80% of the population. Really? Good question. What would the percentage of US mortgages be if the interest rate were say 3.8%? I would guess mush greater than 10%. As China continues to disappear from the world supply chain the shortfall will need to be replaced by the US. And that is going to require a great deal of financial investment. Ideally, cheap money.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 8, 2023 11:28:58 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 8, 2023 12:45:30 GMT -8
Gasoline and new mortgages combined might be at a 20 year high, but how much does that matter? On gasoline, you'd want to take into account the number of miles driven, the average gas mileage, and the other options. Obviously it hurts some people more than others, and like in all things there are always going to be some edge cases. People taking flights and lines at Starbucks might not encompass the complete population, but it might give a good picture of up to 80% of the population. Really? I think it is easy to get overly worried about a few things, and not look at the full picture to see how much they really matter. On gas prices, that would include increased efficiencies and looking at the mileage people drive. We replaced most of our annual household driving from an old Sienna to a new one. The new one is a hybrid, and gets roughly 50% better gas mileage (EPA total figures are about 21 for the old and 35 for the new one). But just as those that now use an electric car could see a big change, it would depend on the US fleet as a whole, along with how many miles people drive. As metropolitan areas get larger, people choose to live further away, or people work from home, it makes for more variables. And so if we are saying "OMG, things are bad because gas prices are up 10% over the 10 year inflation adjusted average", we'd also need to take some of these other things into account. OTOH, it's also a scale thing. To get in the right ballpark, 12k a year at 20mpg is 600 gallons. At $4/gallon, that's $2400/year. If that's 10% more than before, that's an extra $240/year. It seems likely that other inflationary costs are a much larger issue. But back on that supply thing, are there other things currently that are having major supply issues? I haven't really hit ones lately other than cars. And Rooster brand Sriracha. But that's a different issue, while more than offset by current much lower vanilla extract prices than a few years back. Wow, that's a supply/demand mismatch in the agriculture sector that repeats a bit, just like other things that in this day and age we get used to having whenever we want (avocados, citrus, bananas, etc). (EDIT: FWIW, Scotty Kilmer claims 9 of the 10 hardest to get cars right now are from Honda and Toyota, their mid-sized hybrids. Most other cars aren't an issue anymore. OTOH, the 2 Toyota dealers are already talking about longer wait times on 2 new vehicles that don't even have full specs or pricing on them, the '24 Tacoma and '24 Land Cruiser. At least they had a Venza and Rav4 in the lot that we could sit in, even though both had sold. And a Grand Highlander was available, though not the hybrid. Anyways, here's a link to Scotty's video. He got a little more opinionated and political in this one, against EVs or looking at the pics he adds, so be forewarned. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk3sJoq5PpY )
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Aug 8, 2023 14:24:54 GMT -8
And this is why it’s a good idea to consider selling at RSI > 70. Even though you might not hit the exact top, you’ll always have a chance to buy back lower eventually. At RSI < 30 this has historically been a good buy point Your mileage may vary, past performance doesn’t equal future results This only works for folks who hold their shares in tax-deferred accounts. I hold 99.4% of my shares in a taxable account. Almost all with a negligible basis. So if I sold 1000 shares at 70+ RSI a few weeks ago at 195, I have $195,000. Then I pay about $45,000 capital gains tax, then I have $150,000. Then I wait till RSI hits 30-, let's say at $175 and I buy 857 shares. Now I only benefit from future gains on 857 shares insted of on 1000 shares. Is it worth it? No! In a tax-deferred account, if you can time this perfectly, you will do great. You sell 1000 shares at $195, buy back at $175 and you now have 1114 shares to collect future gains from. Most people can't time it perfectly, and I doubt a mechanical RSI trigger would time it perfectly either.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Aug 8, 2023 14:40:40 GMT -8
This inflation is a supply side problem. Raising the cost of money this high and this rapidly is the opposite of what should have happened. How can businesses expand when the cost of money only continues to rise. And the Fed. Chairman insists on raising the unemployment rates and the reduction of people’s savings accounts. His aim is to crash the economy, which he doing. I don't think the aim was to "crash the economy". The goal was to slow the economy, and maybe even cause a shallow recession, to speedily lower inflation. But that goal was supposed to happen before 2024. Because nobody wants to force a recession in an election year. Now they are in a tough spot, it didn't happen, employment is still way high, and business is rapidly expanding in many spheres, perhaps mostly due to massive government spending (infrastructure bill, IRA bill, and general auto-ratcheting up of all other spending). Now the fact that government is spending/distributing so much money, so quickly, is only adding to the inflation of some things. For example, construction equipment, and construction workers are very quickly being attracted to building things like semiconductor facilities, and away from building homes. So that'll cause increases in the cost of homes. Same for equipment. Same for some raw materials. Etc. I suppose one could say that the monetary policy is working to reduce inflation, while the fiscal policy is working to increase inflation in some regards.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 9, 2023 1:54:59 GMT -8
Where are there supply issues? Inflation and shortages go hand in hand, as they are the same. And the cost of energy has a factor in everything. Every link in the chain is affected by the cost of energy. From the production of any product to its delivery. So, the inflating of the cost of money is not a solution, it’s just another example of shortage.
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