Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 6:48:18 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 6:52:36 GMT -8
Some highly amusing YOY context from Vz: 6.3M smartphone "sales" in calendar Q1 12 2.9M LTE device sales. www22.verizon.com/investor/DocServlet?doc=1q12_earnings_release_slides.pdfSo, roughly 3.2/6.3...2.9...then. Now 4.0/7.2...5.9...2.0... Fire up the ROFLcopter. Sorry, don't feel like spelling it out, but you have enough to go on here people. But just in case- Spoiler Alert: Verizon is being assimilated. AND just another in a long series of flukes, Apple is still doomed, but but subsidies and competition but but but. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:10:00 GMT -8
Mercel, yes it's late, but sure seems like Up is Down World, doesn't it.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 7:10:18 GMT -8
Some highly amusing YOY context from Vz: 6.3M smartphone "sales" in calendar Q1 12 2.9M LTE device sales. www22.verizon.com/investor/DocServlet?doc=1q12_earnings_release_slides.pdfSo, roughly 3.2/6.3...2.9...then. Now 4.0/7.2...5.9...2.0... Fire up the ROFLcopter. Sorry, don't feel like spelling it out, but you have enough to go on here people. But just in case- Spoiler Alert: Verizon is being assimilated. AND just another in a long series of flukes, Apple is still doomed, but but subsidies and competition but but but. This GrandPa can't see the forest for the trees! |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 18, 2013 7:14:27 GMT -8
mav is like tyrion from Game of Thrones- always talking in riddles!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:15:17 GMT -8
Not terribly young, artman  But just this once, and because of that astonishing iPad's bar post- iPhone share YOY up to 55% from around 51%, it appears iPhone 5 alone seems to have accounted for 2/3 of "LTE device" growth YOY. That's before adding in iPads, which would just be gravy. Therefore, Apple is...? That's right. Still doomed. So Apple's now dominating a former Android stronghold. Verizon? It means nothing now! |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:16:58 GMT -8
These ain't riddles. I'm tired of having to explain to the last degree. Hey I DID give the Vz links people! You think I'm cryptic, ask that oracle guy. Oh wait. Hear GoT adaptation is pretty sweet. Maybe I'll watch one day on my iTV. |
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Post by BillH on Apr 18, 2013 7:18:18 GMT -8
Wow the fear out there is amazing. You'd think the company was about to go out of business  +1! Tim did in fact address this issue at the last conference call when he stated that Apple watchers shouldn’t derive product production/sales from reports of individual component suppliers. Watching all this as I have for the past decade I’ve come to believe that there isn’t ANYTHING that could be said that isn’t either deprecated or spun in some fashion to whatever point of view is desired. Additionally, if what we’re seeing is more about the macro economic environment and less about the desirability of Apple products then I’d be biting my tongue were I in Tim’s position. Even the best of economist’s rarely get that right. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 18, 2013 7:19:40 GMT -8
aapl has the #2 lowest forward P/E of the 50 largest companies. #1 is chevron.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:21:48 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Apr 18, 2013 7:22:36 GMT -8
Etrade earnings estimates for 2q13 are 9.23-12. Yes 12.
It should also be noted that our stock is so volatile that it has moved 77 points in 18 trading days.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 7:25:06 GMT -8
Not bad. And of course AAPL tanks. Because of the subsidy remarks? Eh, it 's always something. Wild speculation: Is today a "last-chance" takedown before earnings? We do have 20K put contracts at $400 (they're monthlies doncha' know). Wall Street can figure the VZ news out well enough. Or can they? No matter, despite AAPL trading to levels not seen since March 2009 (in relative terms), I LIKE the VZ numbers. Are u listening Mr. Market? Crickets.... |
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Post by jmolloy on Apr 18, 2013 7:28:03 GMT -8
CNN Manipulating facts for dodgy headlines:
CNN headline. iPhone sales down 33% - They are comparing last quarter (the big one) to this one. Lying, cheating b***ards.
As you all know iPhone sales up 25% year on year.
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Post by sponge on Apr 18, 2013 7:29:21 GMT -8
I think what everyone fails to realize is that people prefer a smaller cell phone simply because of it is easier to carry.
But what no one talks about is privacy. The larger the screen the smaller amount of privacy one has when browsing, texting, or reading emails.
Cell phones have become very personal devices and as social as we are, we still don't want to share with complete strangers what we are doing on our cell phones.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:29:50 GMT -8
Up is down, Mercel.
Vz data is great, though clearly smartphone saturation in the US is underway.
I posted about 400 a little ways up. It "seems" that put wall is there for a reason - but if the bears wanted to extract the last drops of water from the rock, they'd want AAPL to be under 400 tomorrow. Which could start more exaggerated selling.
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Post by sponge on Apr 18, 2013 7:31:50 GMT -8
Not bad. And of course AAPL tanks. Because of the subsidy remarks? Eh, it 's always something. Wild speculation: Is today a "last-chance" takedown before earnings? We do have 20K put contracts at $400 (they're monthlies doncha' know). Wall Street can figure the VZ news out well enough. Or can they? No matter, despite AAPL trading to levels not seen since March 2009 (in relative terms), I LIKE the VZ numbers. Are u listening Mr. Market? Crickets.... I also think that ATT numbers will be even more robust. Then the rest of the world will finally have enough units to satisfy the appetite for all models. I think the iPHone numbers will surprise many. My bigger issue is iPad numbers. We were still constraint in the Mini until middle of the quarter. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 18, 2013 7:31:50 GMT -8
You can love or hate Dan Niles from Alpha but he said a few things earlier today about AAPL in an interview worth repeating IMHO. He said that the street has ignored the last 3 misses (I disagree - since we plummeted - wouldn't exactly call that "ignoring") and they may very well miss the 4th. We just don't know. But what I thought was interesting was that he said that the AAPL bulls are completely ignoring things TC was very clear about - he is not putting out a different size iPhone. His comments more or less was that they played around with the size and feel they have it just right. When asked if they would make a cheaper phone, his response was that they don't make cheap phones but make the best products and product experience for the consumer. Niles thinks that the bulls are just slicing and dicing his words and not accepting that they are choosing to stay out of a segment of the market that is extremely important. He said that the attitude that TC and management are taking is one that AAPL had when they had products that were significantly different and at a time when there was no competition - however - their competitors are now eating their lunch in many ways. When pressed as to whether Niles thought the stock was cheap - he refused to pick a bottom given all the concerns he has. I guess the main point here is that the company is saying one thing - and as bulls - we are processing it to suit our views. Not sure anymore but this is simply brutal.
You don't have to agree with Niles but it does cause one to reflect a bit...yet again.
Oh and he doesn't really think that there will be anything significant mentioned or announced during the earnings call about the cash deployment.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 18, 2013 7:33:56 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 7:35:48 GMT -8
CNN Manipulating facts for dodgy headlines: CNN headline. iPhone sales down 33% - They are comparing last quarter (the big one) to this one. Lying, cheating b***ards. As you all know iPhone sales up 25% year on year. I just sent an email to PED re: this. CNN is better than this. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:37:50 GMT -8
Am I now, phoebear? Am I? (Processing to fit views, that is)
You're right, Niles is suspect. WS missing misses? Brain already turned off.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:38:48 GMT -8
Everyone from NYT to WSJ loves to hate on Apple. The Dangerfield Legacy lives on.
And NYT got that Pulitzer they were after. An indictment of both.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 18, 2013 7:47:26 GMT -8
CNN Manipulating facts for dodgy headlines: CNN headline. iPhone sales down 33% - They are comparing last quarter (the big one) to this one. Lying, cheating b***ards. As you all know iPhone sales up 25% year on year. I just sent an email to PED re: this. CNN is better than this. HD has picked up on the false headline too. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 7:48:09 GMT -8
Using 4M VZW iPhones sold this past quarter and the ratio of VZW to total iPhones sold in Q4, extrapolating results to this quarter gives us total 30.8M iPhones. That's really light. Last year for Q1 Apple reported 35.1M total iPhones sold. Numbers don't always (rarely do) tell the whole story. Last year Apple finished FQ1/2012 with the "mother of all backlogs" (according to TC). In April TC commended staff for satisfying that backlog in January. Hence FQ2/2012 iPhone results were artificially inflated due to unsatisfied December quarter demand spilling over into FQ2/2012. Like I've said more than once, FQ2/2013 vs FQ2/2012 is a bad compare because of anomalies in GM% and iPhone unit sales. To make a legitimate, and useful, compare you have to normalize FQ2/2012 to historical (aka seasonal) trends. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:53:45 GMT -8
Dediu having a Twitter slam with everyone's favorite Blodget right now.
UH OH: Sequential compares are stupid: There's a reason YOY comparisons are the industry standard
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2013 7:54:03 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 18, 2013 7:57:16 GMT -8
Winner tweet from Neven Mrgan!
"@asymco @hblodget "Henry Blodget Dying" <- a technically accurate, though horribly misleading headline."
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Post by jmolloy on Apr 18, 2013 8:01:32 GMT -8
I would have thought that that was pretty obvious. Ironically Google probably makes more money from each iPhone customer than it does from Android. Not sure who's winning. here. |
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 18, 2013 8:01:50 GMT -8
Dediu having a Twitter slam with everyone's favorite Blodget right now. UH OH: Sequential compares are stupid: There's a reason YOY comparisons are the industry standard I think low life henry is just trying to get recognition and page views. The low life linked one of PED's posts directly to his site earlier this week.  |
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Post by prazan on Apr 18, 2013 8:05:14 GMT -8
Here's one takeaway on the dangers of extrapolation: "Tavis McCourt with Raymond James, who has an Outperform rating on Apple, and a $600 price target, advises investors not to draw too much from the report as far as iPhone trends: We believe you will see analysts try and take the Verizon iPhone sales number and figure out what it means for overall iPhone sales in 1Q. We would be cautious of this analysis, as it has many faults. Last quarter Verizon represented 13% of total iPhone sales, and if you assumed that this would be the same in 1Q13, you would come to the conclusion that Apple sold about 31 million iPhones in 1Q13. However, because 4Q, a big launch quarter in the U.S., tends to have a heavier skew of U.S. carriers, this analysis would lead one to an overly pessimistic 1Q answer. Additionally, it doesn’t incorporate share shifts amongst carriers or channel inventory changes. 1Q13 will be much more driven by international trends than 4Q was. We believe the important analysis for iPhone trends is that it is still taking y/y share. Again, this is only one carrier, but shows that, at least in the U.S., the ecosystem strategy is working." |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 18, 2013 8:05:32 GMT -8
Oversold on the daily right now.
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