4aapl
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Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 16, 2023 20:11:15 GMT -8
I'm going to start this one a little early. AAPL was down about a quarter of a percent in post-market, just like everything else. Like the end of Wednesday, seeing the notes that some people wanted interest rates to increase another quarter, while exactly what was said going into the previous meeting, was not something that some people wanted to hear. But the Fed will take into account new info before making any decisions at the next meeting, which is still a ways off. And really, in the longer term picture, it doesn't matter much if rates go up another quarter percent or not. It could lengthen the timeframe that rates are above some level, like 4%. But for someone looking 10 or more years out, or possibly just 5 years out, it shouldn't matter much. And maybe Lucky's next dividend repurchase will net him a few more shares. Anyways, there were 2 articles I saw on Wednesday that I didn't get a chance to post. The first is about LG's new 27" TV in a briefcase. And while offhand that might not seem very Apple related, it is for me because at one of my first AAPL shareholder meetings Steve was asked about making a briefcase sized laptop, and he said he didn't see Apple making a Samsonite laptop. This was likely in 1998, 1999 or 2000, and a recap of the meeting that might have been on AppleInsider called the person asking about this a gadfly. The other article was a simple one from CNN noting that Buffet and Bury both sold some last quarter (neglecting the part about Bury being wrong or much too early so many times). But the interesting bit was just the brief discussion of the 4 wall of worry items. China’s economic meltdown, Russia and Ukraine’s impact on inflation, US economy is slowing down, Banks remain a quiet risk. OTOH, these 4 are well known and have been well known for a while, so they should be priced in. Unless things change a lot, it's more likely that something else will pop up and blindside us. OTOH, even the known things can help shape the mindset, making things stay in a bit of a funk. RSI is at 30.81. Time to see some green, but we'll have to see if that happens today or not.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,427
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Post by chinacat on Aug 17, 2023 6:02:41 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2023 7:05:11 GMT -8
RSI is at 30.81. Time to see some green, but we'll have to see if that happens today or not. So much for the hope of green. RSI at 27.37 right now. That just doesn't happen very often, but while it might be rare that doesn't mean that this is almost over, even if the odds might be in the right direction. schrts.co/QfmUdjzeProbably best just to get outside and do stuff. Watch and iPhone rumors, but a lot of it is just guesses, and we're about a month from the likely announcement time.
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Post by zebrum on Aug 17, 2023 8:44:14 GMT -8
Bought some more 😉
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2023 9:48:31 GMT -8
The gaps been filled. Support at $170.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 17, 2023 11:44:57 GMT -8
Support at $170. How so?
Buying Disney and other streamers as they collapse is an interesting strategy. Live sports. I like the tennis live for 100 a year. I can watch Iga instead of some Spanish guy on the TV channel. College football would be perfect for streaming. Apple hasn't been this low on the 14 day RSI since 2019.
ESPN doesn't cover hockey which is enormously popular in its home markets. Better than pillow fighting and english soccer.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2023 12:03:03 GMT -8
Support at $170. How so? Buying Disney and other streamers as they collapse is an interesting strategy. Live sports. I like the tennis live for 100 a year. I can watch Iga instead of some Spanish guy on the TV channel. College football would be perfect for streaming. Apple hasn't been this low on the 14 day RSI since 2019. ESPN doesn't cover hockey which is enormously popular in its home markets. Better than pillow fighting and english soccer. Looking at the chart that 4AAPL linked to above, there was some consolidation at the $170 line.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Aug 17, 2023 12:14:15 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 17, 2023 12:32:50 GMT -8
“ what the Fed needs to actually break this labor market”
They’re not gonna be happy until they cause a recession and put people out of work. Then they can finally change course.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2023 12:46:07 GMT -8
Do we really expect any different? Inflation is current or backward looking, while rate increases are also backward looking but even more so. So while inflation is coming down, rates are likely still high or even going up. And due to the varying delay, that can make a larger net positive interest rate, on bonds or otherwise. It's just been a while, since this last bull run was so long.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Aug 17, 2023 12:51:16 GMT -8
Michael Batnick and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management do a weekly YouTube show and podcast called What Are Your Thoughts. Yesterday, Michael posted a mystery chart (below) to Twitter ahead of the broadcast. Any guesses (from those who didn't listen to the podcast or watch it on YouTube) on what it's showing? Attachments:
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 17, 2023 13:03:46 GMT -8
Michael Batnick and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management do a weekly YouTube show and podcast called What Are Your Thoughts. Yesterday, Michael posted a mystery chart (below) to Twitter ahead of the broadcast. Any guesses (from those who didn't listen to the podcast or watch it on YouTube) on what it's showing? Return per year of a big index, like the S&P or Nasdaq? Fisher had some things like this in his books, basically saying that it was very rare for an index to have an annual return near its average annual return. Instead it's a mix of small down or up, and big down or up, that all together averages out over a decade or more to maybe 10%. Doesn't look like that is AAPL, since ~135 to ~180 in '21 would be 33%. (EDIT: On AAPL it's a little disappointing since the stock was above here 1.5 years ago. OTOH, looking at the chart you could think that the stock got a little ahead of itself then, and maybe $160 was more of a fair valuation at the tippy top. That still only makes for under a 6% annualized rate since then. OTOH, we have to remember that it's all a longer term thing, and to really compare you'd have to look at two times where the sentiment was similar, for a stock, the market, and the economy. We're in a strange place now, where people aren't bullish but are looking to beat the market. I think Apple and others are up as much as they are since this segment (big tech) looks less risky than others while potentially going into a flat or even negative economy. But that's still different than the sentiment when all cylinders seem to be hitting and people are only thinking up up up)
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Post by aaplcrazie on Aug 17, 2023 13:06:40 GMT -8
“ what the Fed needs to actually break this labor market” They’re not gonna be happy until they cause a recession and put people out of work. Then they can finally change course. Seemingly just like The AMPTP - Crashing the Motion Picture and Television Industries 108 Days and counting And tv+ somehow winning a Golden Ticket (Interim Agreement) from SAG so they could go Shoot Season 3 of Tehran in Greece even tho is an AMPT signatory.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Aug 17, 2023 13:09:50 GMT -8
Close.... Annual Returns Apple minus S&P 500. Meaning it's by how much APPL outperformed the S&P500 Index. Average outperformance has been 17% which we all kinda know but still impressive when you think about it. Attachments:
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 17, 2023 13:21:55 GMT -8
Here’s another chart. The last five years of Apple’s PE ratio. If we’re headed for a big correction, it seems like apples PE could bottom out somewhere around 20.that would be about $120.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 17, 2023 16:08:42 GMT -8
I'm going to start this one a little early.And really, in the longer term picture, it doesn't matter much if rates go up another quarter percent or not. It could lengthen the timeframe that rates are above some level, like 4%. But for someone looking 10 or more years out, or possibly just 5 years out, it shouldn't matter much. And maybe Lucky's next dividend repurchase will net him a few more shares.You know, it's been surprising to me that so many investors, on AFB and other sites, have been a little freaked out about AAPL's recent pullback from the $190's. But as an AAPL Long, I *love* to see a pullback in share price when it's dividend time. I talked to one of the Charles Schwab guys today because I'm always a little disappointed that my dividend-purchased shares don't show up until the day after my AAPL dividends and he explained very clearly, what I'm sure the less-dense AFB members already know. Charles Schwab has to make the auto-reinvest purchases of a stock *gradually* during the day...and then they average those purchases so everyone pays the same price. Obviously, the other financial companies do much the same. Anyway, I did a simple calculation to approximate the obvious...the difference in total shares between buying shares at a lower price than $195/share. Since today's range was $173.48 to $177.51, I used $175.00. Buying shares at, or close to that price will result in picking up about 11% more shares that if new AAPL shares were purchased at $195. Is this a great company or what? 😎
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