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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 11:36:11 GMT -8
Sponge, I've gotta lot of love for you and your post. If the special Olympics started a category for forum posts - you'd be a gold medalist in my book. Sent from my iPad using ProBoards app Someone has to keep you all entertained while Mercel and Red are on break.  Nice strong rebound . IV on those calls has not moved much since last week. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 11:40:27 GMT -8
What if no plan is mentioned for cash other than the gratuitous dividend increase? . A couple of analysts have recently stated that they believe that any capital allocation plans will be announced at a separate conference call sometime in the next couple of weeks. Agreed. Toni Sacconaghi has already weighed in on this and ignore at your peril. I'm not expecting any cash plans announced tomorrow, except color on the timing of WHEN. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 11:42:02 GMT -8
And what a shocker - the stock is up close to 3%. Moral of the story: respect the Street, and the Street might respect you. ^ I don't know what this means. |
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Post by cbingle on Apr 22, 2013 11:53:02 GMT -8
Neither does Apple...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 11:58:39 GMT -8
So far the thread today has been mostly about fantasizing about what the "what if scenarios" if we get positive comments tomorrow - buy-back/divs/earnings/ outlook -- whatever. Where does the stock go if they don't? What if they disappoint? What if no plan is mentioned for cash other than the gratuitous dividend increase? Does anyone think we will go to $360-$370 range - or is ALL baked in already? No one knows for sure - I realize that - but feel free to share your thoughts.  Personally I think we if we report under $10 and don't issue solid guidance for next quarter, we'll see the $350 - $360 range shortly. I don't see much more downside than the $350 range, but that's of course under the assumption that results aren't atrocious and under $8.50. |
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Post by prazan on Apr 22, 2013 12:02:22 GMT -8
So far the thread today has been mostly about fantasizing about what the "what if scenarios" if we get positive comments tomorrow - buy-back/divs/earnings/ outlook -- whatever. Where does the stock go if they don't? What if they disappoint? What if no plan is mentioned for cash other than the gratuitous dividend increase? Does anyone think we will go to $360-$370 range - or is ALL baked in already? No one knows for sure - I realize that - but feel free to share your thoughts. Redler this morning said that Apple could pop 35 points either way. He mentioned 350-360 as downside targets if earnings disappoint. That said, he might be opening a few bull calls to play earnings, something he usually does and mentioned during the initial morning call. I have no special insights, but I see cash and buybacks as side issues for the earnings report and CC. I suspect the drop in price is attributable to WS pricing in declining EPS for this quarter. In retrospect, Apple fell only 6 cents YOY in Q1 2013, a quarter that contained one extra week, with real growth on a week to week compare. I know we all like to think everyone on WS is an idiot, that they don't know how to count weeks in a direct comparison, and though I think that's true of most reporters (and writers are my tribe) I don't think it's true of the WS crowd. I think they priced in declining EPS for this quarter. To me, this suggests that WS reaction will be primarily to guidance. If Apple reports on the low side of Q2 guidance, and if the midpoint of Q3 guidance suggests EPS below $9.30, then it will be tough to see when growth will come this year, and investors might react to this. The unknown, at least to me, is the guidance number on which the bull/bear case will hinge. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 12:03:19 GMT -8
Well a nice strong close from the lows of Friday.
Tomorrow and Wednesday are going to be lots of fun. Won't be able to listen to conf call until later tomorrow night.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 12:04:57 GMT -8
CAT released earnings that were bad and lowered their outlook today. I've seen CAT's CEO on Bloomberg and CNBC giving candid interviews and having relevant discussions on both channels today on his company's results and discussing his lowered outlook. Very professional and a role I would expect a CEO to do. Any chance Tim Cook will show such CEO competence and presence this week? Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 22, 2013 12:07:25 GMT -8
IV on those calls has not moved much since last week. a jan 14 call should not drop 10% when aapl goes up 2.5%. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 12:07:56 GMT -8
And what a shocker - the stock is up close to 3%. Moral of the story: respect the Street, and the Street might respect you. ^ I don't know what this means. Me either. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 12:10:14 GMT -8
Mercel You may recall we talked about this. www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/22/apple_returns_iphones_to_foxconn/My source indicated that this is what happened in 4th and 1st quarter. This caused the major shortage until middle of the quarter. Margins should improve as more units moved quicker in the cycle. This may also explain and bigger then usual drawdown in the last 90 days. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 22, 2013 12:11:40 GMT -8
Great responses to my post - thank you for sharing. As I look at NFLX trade up $30 in AH after earnings and see that they earned $0.31 and are trading at $200....and then look over at AMZN and see where they are...and then look at my valued fruit company....it validates something my mom told me as a child, "Life is not fair"
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 12:11:59 GMT -8
IV on those calls has not moved much since last week. a jan 14 call should not drop 10% when aapl goes up 2.5%. I would agree, but watching how this call moves, it has happened before. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 12:14:35 GMT -8
Great responses to my post - thank you for sharing. As I look at NFLX trade up $30 in AH after earnings and see that they earned $0.31 and are trading at $200....and then look over at AMZN and see where they are...and then look at my valued fruit company....it validates something my mom told me as a child, "Life is not fair" So they moved up 26% in one day. Someday we will be treated half way fair and get at least 12%. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 22, 2013 12:17:48 GMT -8
netflix with another 25-30% earnings beat. 300 less than 2 years ago, down to 60, and now 60-->210 in 6 months.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 22, 2013 12:17:47 GMT -8
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Post by vikesfaniv on Apr 22, 2013 12:20:26 GMT -8
CAT released earnings that were bad and lowered their outlook today. I've seen CAT's CEO on Bloomberg and CNBC giving candid interviews and having relevant discussions on both channels today on his company's results and discussing his lowered outlook. Very professional and a role I would expect a CEO to do. Any chance Tim Cook will show such CEO competence and presence this week? Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. Happens fairly often actually. JNJ CEO is on right now talking about past recall problems and future growth opportunities. |
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Post by vikesfaniv on Apr 22, 2013 12:21:25 GMT -8
CAT released earnings that were bad and lowered their outlook today. I've seen CAT's CEO on Bloomberg and CNBC giving candid interviews and having relevant discussions on both channels today on his company's results and discussing his lowered outlook. Very professional and a role I would expect a CEO to do. Any chance Tim Cook will show such CEO competence and presence this week? Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. Happens fairly often actually. JNJ (almost $200 billion market cap) CEO is on right now talking about past recall problems and future growth opportunities. In fact, I can rattle off numerous bigtime CEO's I've seen recently making an appearance on TV. |
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Post by mstrmac on Apr 22, 2013 12:22:36 GMT -8
^ I don't know what this means. Me either. Neither does Apple...  |
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 22, 2013 12:32:17 GMT -8
CAT released earnings that were bad and lowered their outlook today. I've seen CAT's CEO on Bloomberg and CNBC giving candid interviews and having relevant discussions on both channels today on his company's results and discussing his lowered outlook. Very professional and a role I would expect a CEO to do. Any chance Tim Cook will show such CEO competence and presence this week? Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. Yeah competence. Cook and Oppenheimer have been public embarrassments at both of the past 2 conference calls. They came across as bumbling stumbling idiots rather than the CEO and CFO of the most valuable company on the planet. Screw ups happen, but they need to do some damage control when they do. With the exception of two brutal performances by Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer on the past two earnings conference calls, both have been completely Missing In Action while their stock price has been relentlessly driven down and their company has been relentlessly attacked without refute from them. So yeah, as a freakin' Apple shareholder, I want to see some competence from Apples CEO and CFO. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 12:35:48 GMT -8
TC and PO simply have to show a revenue increase with margin expansion tomorrow.
They will show the proof in the conf call. No need to be on TV. They do it once every three months and the numbers speak for themselves.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 22, 2013 12:40:15 GMT -8
TC and PO simply have to show a revenue increase with margin expansion tomorrow. They will show the proof in the conf call. No need to be on TV. They do it once every three months and the numbers speak for themselves. Yeah. Simply. It's that easy. What have the numbers been saying to you since October? Numbers are saying GET OUT to me, but since you keep buying options and shares on margin, I must have it all wrong. |
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Post by wheeles on Apr 22, 2013 12:48:02 GMT -8
Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. Yeah competence. Cook and Oppenheimer have been public embarrassments at both of the past 2 conference calls. They came across as bumbling stumbling idiots rather than the CEO and CFO of the most valuable company on the planet. Screw ups happen, but they need to do some damage control when they do. With the exception of two brutal performances by Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer on the past two earnings conference calls, both have been completely Missing In Action while their stock price has been relentlessly driven down and their company has been relentlessly attacked without refute from them. So yeah, as a freakin' Apple shareholder, I want to see some competence from Apples CEO and CFO. You're blaming the wrong people. You want to know who is really to blame? How about the head of marketing, Phil Schiller? Since Steve left Schiller has done next to nothing where marketing is concerned. He lived in Steve's shadow for so long, with Steve doing all the work. Now Steve is gone, Schiller's not stepped up to the plate. If anything, Forstall should have been the one moved in to head up marketing and Schiller moved to head up iOS. |
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Post by david on Apr 22, 2013 12:52:38 GMT -8
TC and PO simply have to show a revenue increase with margin expansion tomorrow. They will show the proof in the conf call. No need to be on TV. They do it once every three months and the numbers speak for themselves. Yeah. Simply. It's that easy. What have the numbers been saying to you since October? Numbers are saying GET OUT to me, but since you keep buying options and shares on margin, I must have it all wrong. Have you heeded your numbers' advice? Did you GET OUT? |
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Post by icam on Apr 22, 2013 12:57:31 GMT -8
Yeah competence. Cook and Oppenheimer have been public embarrassments at both of the past 2 conference calls. They came across as bumbling stumbling idiots rather than the CEO and CFO of the most valuable company on the planet. Screw ups happen, but they need to do some damage control when they do. With the exception of two brutal performances by Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer on the past two earnings conference calls, both have been completely Missing In Action while their stock price has been relentlessly driven down and their company has been relentlessly attacked without refute from them. So yeah, as a freakin' Apple shareholder, I want to see some competence from Apples CEO and CFO. You're blaming the wrong people. You want to know who is really to blame? How about the head of marketing, Phil Schiller? Since Steve left Schiller has done next to nothing where marketing is concerned. He lived in Steve's shadow for so long, with Steve doing all the work. Now Steve is gone, Schiller's not stepped up to the plate. If anything, Forstall should have been the one moved in to head up marketing and Schiller moved to head up iOS. I don't know anything about either of them nor their job performances. But, in general, if an employee is ineffective, it is his bosses responsibility to recognize that fact and take the necessary corrective action. Last time I checked, Tim Cook is his boss. So, Tim ultimately owns how this plays out too. |
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Post by jmolloy on Apr 22, 2013 13:08:43 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 22, 2013 13:13:20 GMT -8
Yeah. Simply. It's that easy. What have the numbers been saying to you since October? Numbers are saying GET OUT to me, but since you keep buying options and shares on margin, I must have it all wrong. Have you heeded your numbers' advice? Did you GET OUT? I did. Dumped 3/4 of my commons on the bounce after January earnings. Haven't bought options other than for trading purposes since mid-January. Have no plans on buying anything else until the company shows me something. And I won't hesitate to dump the rest of those commons Wednesday morning if TC sounds as weak as he did in January. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 13:14:22 GMT -8
Like I have said before. The margin shares I buy, unless forced to sell, will stay in my account until I die.
Yes they may be negative a year or two but I see nothing but blue skies for Apple in the next 50 years.
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 13:17:30 GMT -8
Have you heeded your numbers' advice? Did you GET OUT? I did. Dumped 3/4 of my commons on the bounce after January earnings. Haven't bought options other than for trading purposes since mid-January. Have no plans on buying anything else until the company shows me something. And I won't hesitate to dump the rest of those commons Wednesday morning if TC sounds as weak as he did in January. You are the perfect example of a short term retail investor. Many like you got out in Oct and since then have stayed out. By the time you get back in, you may miss the next 90% move in the stock. Sentiment is very bearish right now and few folks like you have the balls to get in. This is why volume is low and we have gone nowhere since Jan except down. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 22, 2013 13:21:41 GMT -8
Sentiment is very bearish right now and few folks like you have the balls to get in.. This isn't about having balls. It's about having a brain. |
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