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Post by rickag on Apr 22, 2013 13:24:44 GMT -8
Like I have said before. The margin shares I buy, unless forced to sell, will stay in my account until I die. Yes they may be negative a year or two but I see nothing but blue skies for Apple in the next 50 years. I like your unbridled optimism but even I question looking out 50 years. Surely you exagerated for effect. Edit for spell check mistake |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 22, 2013 13:28:50 GMT -8
Like I have said before. The margin shares I buy, unless forced to sell, will stay in my account until I die. Yes they may be negative a year or two but I see nothing but blue skies for Apple in the next 50 years. Unlike your unbridled optimism but even I question looking out 50 years. Surely you exagerated for effect. Since the Sponge is currenty 74 years old and will hold the shares until he dies, he remains an optimist in all things. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 22, 2013 13:31:26 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 13:32:44 GMT -8
Mercel You may recall we talked about this. www.theregister.co.uk/2013/04/22/apple_returns_iphones_to_foxconn/My source indicated that this is what happened in 4th and 1st quarter. This caused the major shortage until middle of the quarter. Margins should improve as more units moved quicker in the cycle. This may also explain and bigger then usual drawdown in the last 90 days. This was corroborated by some of my retail friends at Apple. Hard to say how many, but this was widely reported just after the launch. I don't think the #s bandied about are accurate, however. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2013 13:34:37 GMT -8
Like I have said before. The margin shares I buy, unless forced to sell, will stay in my account until I die. Yes they may be negative a year or two but I see nothing but blue skies for Apple in the next 50 years. You're better off limiting your time horizon to 5 years. This IS a tech stock you do realize... |
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 22, 2013 13:34:44 GMT -8
Yeah. Simply. It's that easy. What have the numbers been saying to you since October? Numbers are saying GET OUT to me, but since you keep buying options and shares on margin, I must have it all wrong. Have you heeded your numbers' advice? Did you GET OUT? Can't speak to what Hedge has done. I have been buying Bear Put Spreads to insure my core shares and my now worthless Bull Call Spreads for the last $150 drop in AAPL. Been using them as disaster insurance and have been making $ and raising cash with them for a while now. Thank god I figured out that every time Tim and Pete talk, the stock tanks. I will continue to buy put spreads to help ease my paper losses until that correlation ends, which I hope is tomorrow, but I'm not banking on that happening. Easiest money in town the past few months has been Puts on Tim Cook. My only regret was being so slow to figure it out (completely got hammered on the drop from $705 to $520), but live, learn, and adapt. |
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Post by aapl4kiki on Apr 22, 2013 13:35:29 GMT -8
Competence? Give me a freakin' break. How many of the Fortune (or S&P) 500 CEOs have you seen on CNBC, and how often? How many DOW component, or Nasdaq 100, CEO's. Its rare when a CEO of that stature shows up on any TV program. Yeah competence. Cook and Oppenheimer have been public embarrassments at both of the past 2 conference calls. They came across as bumbling stumbling idiots rather than the CEO and CFO of the most valuable company on the planet. Screw ups happen, but they need to do some damage control when they do. With the exception of two brutal performances by Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer on the past two earnings conference calls, both have been completely Missing In Action while their stock price has been relentlessly driven down and their company has been relentlessly attacked without refute from them. So yeah, as a freakin' Apple shareholder, I want to see some competence from Apples CEO and CFO. I think TC needs to come on there tomorrow at 2pm PDT sounding like Larry - weak and frail - then maybe we'll get to 800 in short order. But seriously, if I hear more crap about building great products and north stars I may puke all over my screen. For once, I'd like a little edge, a little swagger on the CC. He's been a punching bag for 7 months and all he can come up with is don't bet against us. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:40:35 GMT -8
tuffett - Moral of the story: Show up for CEO interviews? Not sure where that's going. No, maybe it's more like CAT is a boring, safe, established builder with a reasonable multiple, and they instituted a buyback for the first time since 2008 to support the share price. finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-1q-profit-shrank-cuts-115757675.html Also, though a lower-beta name, it too has gotten its haircut. I feel bad for anyone who bought CAT over 80 from around October 2010. |
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 13:47:14 GMT -8
Hello Good People,
I used to post here and would like to give you my views.
First of all, thank you iPad for welcoming me. Please feel free to kck me off whenever. I try to speak the truth as I see it and you know...
Anyway no false flattery, you have done a yeoperson's job running this thing.
End of first post.
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icam
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Post by icam on Apr 22, 2013 13:47:56 GMT -8
tuffett - Moral of the story: Show up for CEO interviews? Not sure where that's going. No, maybe it's more like CAT is a boring, safe, established builder with a reasonable multiple, and they instituted a buyback for the first time since 2008 to support the share price. finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-1q-profit-shrank-cuts-115757675.html Also, though a lower-beta name, it too has gotten its haircut. I feel bad for anyone who bought CAT over 80 from around October 2010. nagrani - "special"? It shows the CEO has a plan and is willing to communicate that plan to the market. Neither of which Tim Cook has shown the aptitude for nor the willingness to do. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 22, 2013 13:48:16 GMT -8
IV on those calls has not moved much since last week. a jan 14 call should not drop 10% when aapl goes up 2.5%. The latter controls delta. There's also theta and vega. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 13:48:17 GMT -8
Holy crap!! NFLX is up $53 in one day. Maybe those 2 new million subscribers were all the new iOS owners.  |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 22, 2013 13:49:47 GMT -8
Holy crap!! NFLX is up $53 in one day. My EXACT reaction!!!  (Also, glad I'm not short!) |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:51:00 GMT -8
There isn't a thing Tim Cook can say to "Reed Hastings" up AAPL. Nothing that Apple's culture would allow him to say, anyway.
And where were the cries when AAPL tanked from 200 to 80 under Steve? Sure, Great Recession, but he could've said something.
You have to remember the company. The culture is tight-lipped as hell. You will rarely get unannounced product specifics and you will never get any clues about financial results or stuff like dividends, buybacks and share splits. This is a company that speaks in themes and platitudes by its very nature.
If it doesn't fit your expectations, your options are to sue, vote the Board out, sell, or hold. Same as it is for any publicly traded stock.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:51:58 GMT -8
GREAT SCOTT REED HASTINGS WHAT!
(Wow, really happy I didn't buy any puts on NFLX.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:55:30 GMT -8
$18M in profit (excluding debt retirement) on in-line revs of $1.02B. Just splendid. Bravo, NFLX. BRAVO.
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Post by sponge on Apr 22, 2013 13:55:41 GMT -8
Like I have said before. The margin shares I buy, unless forced to sell, will stay in my account until I die. Yes they may be negative a year or two but I see nothing but blue skies for Apple in the next 50 years. I like your unbridled optimism but even I question looking out 50 years. Surely you exagerated for effect. Edit for spell check mistake No I am very serious. I looked at train stocks in the 1870s, Standard Oil in 1900, Ford in 1920s, and IBM in 1960s. Apple is an investment of a generation. Their products and game plan is paying off 30 years later. They are in a better position today then ever. They can give us Star Trek innovation for decades. Why? Because they have the best engineers in the world and enough cash to do anything. When you control 70% of profits, all you do is make small changes to your products and sell 40% more YOY. Yes the iPhone 5 that many doubters complain about sold 40% more YOY on weekly basis. That is for a product that retails for $645 average and sells for. $3700 in Moscow in the first week of release. Few people other the Blackrock which owns 40 million shares understand how huge this company is and strong their future will be. |
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Post by rickag on Apr 22, 2013 13:57:16 GMT -8
Holly crap!! NFLX is up $53 in one day. Maybe those 2 new million subscribers were all the new iOS owners. I guess a hostile takeover is out for the time being. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:59:26 GMT -8
40% more, YOY. For iPhone? That's a good one.
That's 45M iPhones on a sellthrough basis and friggin' 49M iPhones on a sell-in basis. Not happening this quarter. Not remotely hinted at through guidance.
iPad is another story. iPhone, why don't we wait for the numbers before projecting the trends. Apple won't be able to even approach 40% YOY iPhone growth (and even then, maybe only for a brief moment) without massive carrier deals like China Mobile and/or iPhone Big and/or the much-ballyhooed/dreaded "cheap iPhone".
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Post by terps530 on Apr 22, 2013 14:02:54 GMT -8
I did. Dumped 3/4 of my commons on the bounce after January earnings. Haven't bought options other than for trading purposes since mid-January. Have no plans on buying anything else until the company shows me something. And I won't hesitate to dump the rest of those commons Wednesday morning if TC sounds as weak as he did in January. You are the perfect example of a short term retail investor. Many like you got out in Oct and since then have stayed out. By the time you get back in, you may miss the next 90% move in the stock. hiya- it's just the not-making-sense police stopping by for a quick moment. based on the lowest day in october: worst case the 'retail investor' got out 200 points higher than this current level. you're not gonna go away for a day and come back to see aapl above 590. per your definition, i wish i had been a 'short term retail investor'. |
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 14:05:29 GMT -8
So I was on a train today from Paris to Amsterdam, which for reasons I do not understand is a fairly expensive train for a 3.25 hour ride. It costs $150+.
So the people on it it are fairly well-heeled in general, but on the other hand it is about the only way to do this route.
I sat there and tried to do my work with my iPad 2.
The woman to my left struggled with her blackberry (a lot of furious clicking on the center button) and then she whipped out her iPad mini and calmed down.
The man next to me was watching Game of Thrones on his mac something. The two people across from him were on iPhones.
The woman across to my left was (I think) on an IPhone.
In other words, on this train - 2nd class no less - there was virtually only apple.
My theory is that everyone everywhere desperately wants an apple product if they can afford it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 14:07:29 GMT -8
Careful 2cents, you sound bullish.
(I appreciate the perspective though. Even as Apple is a "failure" - well - it's very clearly not. The formerly invincible Microsoft can only dream of being where Apple is now.)
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 14:15:02 GMT -8
Now for particulars.
The way I see this is that most everyone here knows a TON about aapl.
The average loss here for many people is about 90% I estimate or worse.
I am worse than that and I was half in Jan 2014 and half Jan 2015 leaps - a fairly safe position I thought.
But still, think about it, what stock do u know better than our fruit company?
So what stock are you most likely to benefit from?
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 22, 2013 14:19:49 GMT -8
I seem to do much better with stocks of companies about which I know nothing.
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Apr 22, 2013 14:20:42 GMT -8
If you're confident about your EPS estimate, it seems your decision would be made for you. But there's nothing wrong with caution when a stock drops $300 for reasons far less to do with Apple than the stock market and media. Yes I am confident. But even with good numbers, WS may come up with an excuse to continue to punish the stock. Oct and Jan come to mind. I may just use half of it tomorrow depending on how the stock reacts. |
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 14:30:41 GMT -8
More particulars, as I see it.
Think about this. Suppose apple did NOTHING except add a faster processor and better camera for the next iphone and kept all prices the same. And they kept doing this and NOTHING ELSE.
Would they lose half their sales?
Let's say they did.
Iphone is roughly 2/3 their profits. So that profit is cut in half but overall their profit would be 2/3 what it is now, which gives them a 13.5 pe instead of 9. NOT INCLUDING CASH.
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 14:41:41 GMT -8
Even more particulars.
In no particular order...
Mercel, you have stepped up. When we needed it. Both humor and insight far beyond the average bear.
Mav, verbal skills i can't even imagine and a really deep knowledge of all things apple and just keep going because most of it is priceless.
Gregg, some kind of genius slants on things.
Red, 100+ posts and never seen a bad one, not even one.
Lstream, excellent sense of humor, even at my expense, and common sense.
Will continue list...
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Post by appledoc on Apr 22, 2013 14:42:02 GMT -8
More particulars, as I see it. Think about this. Suppose apple did NOTHING except add a faster processor and better camera for the next iphone and kept all prices the same. And they kept doing this and NOTHING ELSE. Would they lose half their sales? Let's say they did. Iphone is roughly 2/3 their profits. So that profit is cut in half but overall their profit would be 2/3 what it is now, which gives them a 13.5 pe instead of 9. NOT INCLUDING CASH. What does this prove? If the iPhone lost half its sales, you damn well know share price would absolutely collapse. A P/E of 9 would be a huge reach. |
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Post by 2cents on Apr 22, 2013 15:04:07 GMT -8
And then there are so many more people I benefit from here ... tuffet, hedge, icam, mace, wheeles, many many many more - I sincerely apologize that I cannot remember all the names ... Sceptical with entirely valid opinions.
Then there is the elderly gentleman whose name I forget (something fox???) who did well with leaps and who knew SO MUCH and I kept trying to elicit more information from (apologies if it came across as obnoxios but you know that you know..)
Edited to change who's to whose because you know people often people judge your posts by your grammar.
Google the mark twain quote about grammar and cats.
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Post by david on Apr 22, 2013 15:07:49 GMT -8
Sentiment is very bearish right now and few folks like you have the balls to get in.. This isn't about having balls. It's about having a brain. Speaking of having a brain, your advice is to GET OUT? Right now, before ER? |
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