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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2013 11:11:50 GMT -8
Hedge Why are you so angry about what I do or say? You sound like you are appledoc and jdsocal combined coming back just to harass anyone who disagrees with you. You first posts were sensible. Now you have become hostile and argumentative. Because so often you are so utterly wrong. If you think Apple is supply constrained for more than 2 or 3 months of the year, it is obvious to everyone else how delusional you are. The confidence with which you make your "predictions" and the almost boastful nature with which you announce your frequent margin calls are exasperating and anger inducing to many, and many of us feel the need to set the record straight for the sale of not letting misinformation pervade. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:17:18 GMT -8
This article is exactly what I've been harping on, that the media is busted. CNBC is the CNN of financial reporting, and it's no stretch to say it's far more irresponsible. medium.com/on-the-news-media/c53bde1778d1 |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:19:04 GMT -8
Actually if you see the photo BGs non shaking hand was in his trouser pocket. Lacks respect a bit but lack of enthusiasm and sense of occasion immensely I think it's more Bill playing pocket pool than his nonplussed expression |
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Post by cambrose on Apr 23, 2013 11:22:02 GMT -8
Hedged today by selling Jan 2014 530 Calls at $8.30. Will be very happy if I have to buy them back tomorrow around the same price or a little higher.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 11:22:27 GMT -8
Hedge Why are you so angry about what I do or say? You sound like you are appledoc and jdsocal combined coming back just to harass anyone who disagrees with you. You first posts were sensible. Now you have become hostile and argumentative. Because so often you are so utterly wrong. If you think Apple is supply constrained for more than 2 or 3 months of the year, it is obvious to everyone else how delusional you are. The confidence with which you make your "predictions" and the almost boastful nature with which you announce your frequent margin calls are exasperating and anger inducing to many, and many of us feel the need to set the record straight for the sale of not letting misinformation pervade. You are upset as well. I can call your views delusional also, but then iPad gets on my case says to play nice. I am confident regardless of what you think or what the stock does. It is broken and I am not bothered about it like you are. We will recover and the company is in great hands. They build amazing products. Have you talked to a retailer about what it takes to become an Apple authorized retailer? Or even a phone carrier. They are begging to sell their products. Apple forces them to buy minimums. You know why?. Because Apple can manage supply for JIT inventory systems. If Samsung can compete against Apple with the same price, then Apple has a supply problem. If they were to advertise more and open up more carriers they could not supply them all. You don't get 38% margin by guessing demand. You know demand ahead of time and build enough to satisfy it. They cant satisfy all demand all the time. |
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Post by fas550 on Apr 23, 2013 11:23:34 GMT -8
Actually if you see the photo BGs non shaking hand was in his trouser pocket. Lacks respect a bit but lack of enthusiasm and sense of occasion immensely I think it's more Bill playing pocket pool than his nonplussed expression Probably a jet lag thing and amusing himself to stay awake |
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Post by bud777 on Apr 23, 2013 11:23:48 GMT -8
Just some random thoughts while we are waiting for earnings.....
I have trouble understanding the basic premise of many here about Apple management. There seems to be a position that Apple has a responsibility to the stockholders to manage WS's perception of Apple and its effect on the share price. I would question that premise on practical grounds. First, from a traders perspective, the last thing I want is for management to monitor and stabilize the share price through active intervention whether it is hinting at new development, telegraphing stock buybacks or just engaging more with the press and analysts. If I were a trader, I make my money off volatility, down is as good as up as long as it moves. Let the big boys push it around. In this case, silence on the part of the board is golden. ( Of course, if i am inept at trading, I can see why I would be frustrated when they don't move it where I want it, but really, it is my fault for not being nimble enough or managing my risk.
On the other hand, if i am a long term investor, I have to ask "How much of the share price do I want to be dependent on the board's PR efforts?" If i am investing on fundamentals, the numbers should speak for themselves. If the boards efforts inflate the P/E, it gives me a temporary boost in overall portfolio value, but that means nothing since i don't intend to sell. On the other hand, it makes the stock more vulnerable since part of the valuation is based on fluff. Again, silence makes the stock less risky.
Right now, Apple feels like the perfect investment. A decent return and very very little downside risk, with a strong upside potential.
There are some things that management has done that I do not understand. I am not saying that they are wrong, just that I don't understand why they did what they did. I developed software for 45 years, and about 10 of that was managing high-tech new product development. in my experience, a major product usually takes between 1-2 years. 18 months is about the fastest you can really do anything unless it is just a superficial revision. maybe that has all changed now, but maybe not. Apple used to have new product introductions staggered so a new products were being introduced about every 3 months. Last year, they seemed to synchronize the introductions so everything was refreshed right before Christmas. While this may have helped that quarter, it inevitably leads to a long dry spell. Innovation and development can be just as fast as before, even better, and it appears that the company is not doing anything. This certainly has an impact on marketing, but maybe there were other benefits that out weigh that that I do not see yet.
Best of luck today, whatever your position
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Post by lance on Apr 23, 2013 11:24:31 GMT -8
Pop or drop? I am not placing really any bets on this earnings just want to hear the numbers the make an assessment whether the next 3 months are even worth considering.
We shall soon see.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 23, 2013 11:26:38 GMT -8
Great post bud.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 11:26:46 GMT -8
Just some random thoughts while we are waiting for earnings..... I have trouble understanding the basic premise of many here about Apple management. There seems to be a position that Apple has a responsibility to the stockholders to manage WS's perception of Apple and its effect on the share price. I would question that premise on practical grounds. First, from a traders perspective, the last thing I want is for management to monitor and stabilize the share price through active intervention whether it is hinting at new development, telegraphing stock buybacks or just engaging more with the press and analysts. If I were a trader, I make my money off volatility, down is as good as up as long as it moves. Let the big boys push it around. In this case, silence on the part of the board is golden. ( Of course, if i am inept at trading, I can see why I would be frustrated when they don't move it where I want it, but really, it is my fault for not being nimble enough or managing my risk. On the other hand, if i am a long term investor, I have to ask "How much of the share price do I want to be dependent on the board's PR efforts?" If i am investing on fundamentals, the numbers should speak for themselves. If the boards efforts inflate the P/E, it gives me a temporary boost in overall portfolio value, but that means nothing since i don't intend to sell. On the other hand, it makes the stock more vulnerable since part of the valuation is based on fluff. Again, silence makes the stock less risky. Right now, Apple feels like the perfect investment. A decent return and very very little downside risk, with a strong upside potential. There are some things that management has done that I do not understand. I am not saying that they are wrong, just that I don't understand why they did what they did. I developed software for 45 years, and about 10 of that was managing high-tech new product development. in my experience, a major product with a usually takes between 1-2 years. 18 months is about the fastest you can really do anything unless it is just a superficial revision. maybe that has all changed now, but maybe not. Apple used to have new product introductions staggered so a new products were being introduced about every 3 months. Last year, they seemed to synchronize the introductions so everything was refreshed right before Christmas. While this may have helped that quarter, it inevitably leads to a long dry spell. Innovation and development can be just as fast as before, even better, and it appears that the company is not doing anything. This certainly has an impact on marketing, but maybe there were other benefits that out weigh that that I do not see yet. Best of luck today, whatever your position Well said. You take the time to explain things. I am not that patient. In the mean time we are going up and up. At this rate we could Mace's target of 415. ;D |
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 23, 2013 11:30:07 GMT -8
AT&T will probably report in 30 minutes. Their webcast starts in ONE hour.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:31:20 GMT -8
I think it's more Bill playing pocket pool than his nonplussed expression Probably a jet lag thing and amusing himself to stay awake With Bill's usual style, he probably uttered something like "...how nice it must be for you to meet me..." |
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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2013 11:31:38 GMT -8
Because so often you are so utterly wrong. If you think Apple is supply constrained for more than 2 or 3 months of the year, it is obvious to everyone else how delusional you are. The confidence with which you make your "predictions" and the almost boastful nature with which you announce your frequent margin calls are exasperating and anger inducing to many, and many of us feel the need to set the record straight for the sale of not letting misinformation pervade. You are upset as well. I can call your views delusional also, but then iPad gets on my case says to play nice. I am confident regardless of what you think or what the stock does. It is broken and I am not bothered about it like you are. We will recover and the company is in great hands. They build amazing products. Have you talked to a retailer about what it takes to become an Apple authorized retailer? Or even a phone carrier. They are begging to sell their products. Apple forces them to buy minimums. You know why?. Because Apple can manage supply for JIT inventory systems. If Samsung can compete against Apple with the same price, then Apple has a supply problem. If they were to advertise more and open up more carriers they could not supply them all. You don't get 38% margin by guessing demand. You know demand ahead of time and build enough to satisfy it. They cant satisfy all demand all the time. So Is Apple not adding many more carriers because they can't make enough iPhones, or are the carriers not agreeing to their terms? It's obviously the latter, if they cannot sell as many as they did last quarter, since on the supply side it just gets easier as time goes on. This is not a "viewpoint" - it's simple logic and common sense that shouldn't even need to be debated. For clarity, let me rephrase: Apple is constrained by demand at their current price points. If they slash prices obviously demand is going to increase. The reason I didn't explain this earlier is because it's an obvious concept, and applies to every product sold by any company in existence. |
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 23, 2013 11:35:30 GMT -8
In exactly one hour, we shall be flying... upwards!  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:37:33 GMT -8
Whoever started this image meme business on Intraday...  I thought it was protocol. Every time I post I see "Add image to post." I feel guilty when I don't... |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:41:29 GMT -8
Just some random thoughts while we are waiting for earnings..... I have trouble understanding the basic premise of many here about Apple management. There seems to be a position that Apple has a responsibility to the stockholders to manage WS's perception of Apple and its effect on the share price. I would question that premise on practical grounds. First, from a traders perspective, the last thing I want is for management to monitor and stabilize the share price through active intervention whether it is hinting at new development, telegraphing stock buybacks or just engaging more with the press and analysts. If I were a trader, I make my money off volatility, down is as good as up as long as it moves. Let the big boys push it around. In this case, silence on the part of the board is golden. ( Of course, if i am inept at trading, I can see why I would be frustrated when they don't move it where I want it, but really, it is my fault for not being nimble enough or managing my risk. On the other hand, if i am a long term investor, I have to ask "How much of the share price do I want to be dependent on the board's PR efforts?" If i am investing on fundamentals, the numbers should speak for themselves. If the boards efforts inflate the P/E, it gives me a temporary boost in overall portfolio value, but that means nothing since i don't intend to sell. On the other hand, it makes the stock more vulnerable since part of the valuation is based on fluff. Again, silence makes the stock less risky. Right now, Apple feels like the perfect investment. A decent return and very very little downside risk, with a strong upside potential. There are some things that management has done that I do not understand. I am not saying that they are wrong, just that I don't understand why they did what they did. I developed software for 45 years, and about 10 of that was managing high-tech new product development. in my experience, a major product usually takes between 1-2 years. 18 months is about the fastest you can really do anything unless it is just a superficial revision. maybe that has all changed now, but maybe not. Apple used to have new product introductions staggered so a new products were being introduced about every 3 months. Last year, they seemed to synchronize the introductions so everything was refreshed right before Christmas. While this may have helped that quarter, it inevitably leads to a long dry spell. Innovation and development can be just as fast as before, even better, and it appears that the company is not doing anything. This certainly has an impact on marketing, but maybe there were other benefits that out weigh that that I do not see yet. Best of luck today, whatever your position THANK YOU bud777 for a well written reality check for the doubters/weak at heart. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:42:34 GMT -8
Sponge, not only are you going to get your $405, it looks very much like you are going to get a Close above $405.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 11:43:25 GMT -8
Well if we do sell off we should only come down to about 380 if we get a 7% drop. That is the silver lining for some bad numbers.
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Post by mace on Apr 23, 2013 11:46:28 GMT -8
You don't get 38% margin by guessing demand. You know demand ahead of time and build enough to satisfy it. They cant satisfy all demand all the time. There are always two sides. Can't satisfy demand could be due to forecasting too low demand and hence plan for less supply, leading to supply constraints. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 11:48:04 GMT -8
You don't get 38% margin by guessing demand. You know demand ahead of time and build enough to satisfy it. They cant satisfy all demand all the time. There are always two sides. Can't satisfy demand could be due to forecasting too low demand and hence plan for less supply, leading to supply constraints. What a great problem that would be when you continue to grow share. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 11:54:04 GMT -8
You are upset as well. I can call your views delusional also, but then iPad gets on my case says to play nice. I am confident regardless of what you think or what the stock does. It is broken and I am not bothered about it like you are. We will recover and the company is in great hands. They build amazing products. Have you talked to a retailer about what it takes to become an Apple authorized retailer? Or even a phone carrier. They are begging to sell their products. Apple forces them to buy minimums. You know why?. Because Apple can manage supply for JIT inventory systems. If Samsung can compete against Apple with the same price, then Apple has a supply problem. If they were to advertise more and open up more carriers they could not supply them all. You don't get 38% margin by guessing demand. You know demand ahead of time and build enough to satisfy it. They cant satisfy all demand all the time. So Is Apple not adding many more carriers because they can't make enough iPhones, or are the carriers not agreeing to their terms? It's obviously the latter, if they cannot sell as many as they did last quarter, since on the supply side it just gets easier as time goes on. This is not a "viewpoint" - it's simple logic and common sense that shouldn't even need to be debated. For clarity, let me rephrase: Apple is constrained by demand at their current price points. If they slash prices obviously demand is going to increase. The reason I didn't explain this earlier is because it's an obvious concept, and applies to every product sold by any company in existence. YOu would think so, but for Apple it is a different type of dilemma. Like TC said, their supply chain is very complex. They relay on multiple partners, but if one partner fails, it can impact the whole system. Foxconn was not joking when they complained about how hard it was to manufacture the iPHone 5. Heck look what happened to the iMac. They have lots of triggers in place to deal with issues, but the scale at which they are building makes it very challenging. If they miss the window of about 4 months then sales fall off a cliff. Customers are getting very savy about knowing when new stuff comes out. Apple is not going to produce more stuff knowing that 6 months later they need to switch components for the new iPhone or iPad. They have slowly increased manufacturing capacity with their partners, but they have done so in a very systematic way. Their margins are high because of this. Unlike everyone else that pumps millions more smart phones but somehow still manage to lose money. We went from being able to produce 600K in one quarter to 48 million while increasing market share and raising prices. No company in the world can ever claim such amazing numbers without being a monopoly. Books will be written about what Apple was able to do in the last 6 years. |
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 23, 2013 11:57:18 GMT -8
I hope Daniel's right. Numbers in that range would be a solid beat. But sellthrough vs. sell-in is causing major headaches, considering both the ongoing product/margin transitions AND the analyst education of sellthrough-to-sellthrough comparisons transition. This is _further_ complicated by the ongoing market share wars. Estimates of sell-in, projections of market growth based on incomplete data...tough to navigate it all right now. Takes a bit longer to confirm trends, though individual data points like the US carriers is somewhat useful. Sellthrough may eventually need to be made as clear as "special cases" like TAC for Google. The sooner even the financial media can easily account for it (and the media _has_ gotten the basics about Google's business mostly right, from what I can tell), the better. Of course, Google isn't the best example as far as their LACK of guidance is concerned... I find it interesting that the company known for its secrecy is one of the most open about this data. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 11:59:27 GMT -8
I own a tuxedo shop. During prom season we could not supply enough tuxedos. It would have been very stupid for me to buy extra tuxedos just for that season and later find myself with inventory sitting there for the other 11 months. Further more if I tried to buy more I could not because every other tuxedo shop in the country had the same issue and the manufacture could not make enough to satisfy demand from all of us. Therefore I chose how much marketing I was willing to do for that season or tried to push people into other tuxedos.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 12:01:49 GMT -8
We barely closed above 405. Everyone is nervous about the numbers, except Gregg and I. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 12:01:54 GMT -8
I own a tuxedo shop. During prom season we could not supply enough tuxedos. It would have been very stupid for me to buy extra tuxedos just for that season and later find myself with inventory sitting there for the other 11 months. Further more if I tried to buy more I could not because every other tuxedo shop in the country had the same issue and the manufacture could not make enough to satisfy demand from all of us. Therefore I chose how much marketing I was willing to do for that season or tried to push people into other tuxedos. I think I found your website. Uhm....  |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 12:03:29 GMT -8
Hedge Why are you so angry about what I do or say? You sound like you are appledoc and jdsocal combined coming back just to harass anyone who disagrees with you. You first posts were sensible. Now you have become hostile and argumentative. You're a loud mouth who has been wrong about absolutely everything since October. You present your opinions as facts, and even worse, don't back them up with any logical arguments. You're a long term bull, yet feel the need to analyze intraday activity, which shouldn't matter in the least to you. Your motto is buy and hold, yet you buy options and shares on margin. You don't ever admit when you're wrong, even though you're wrong all the time. You don't have the first clue how EW works, yet think you can compare it to your predictions. You think your buddies in the industry provide you with enough information to become an expert on a certain subject (see Lstream's dismissal of your piss poor attempt to discredit the possibility of fingerprinting technology in the next iPhone). And maybe worst of all, you somehow have your ridiculous earnings estimates included in PED's round up. Maybe you'll nail them (I hope you do). But now that you're not just some guy on a message board, it's time you get held accountable for the garbage that you post. There are a lot of people on this board who add valuable information and engage in thought provoking discussion. You don't do either. And dude, you don't know a damn thing compared to Horace. It's a disgrace you compared yourself to him. |
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 23, 2013 12:04:07 GMT -8
AT&T numbers:
1.2 million new smartphone subscribers (88% of postpaid phone sales)
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Post by terps530 on Apr 23, 2013 12:04:14 GMT -8
what kinda # are we hoping for out of AT&T iphones?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2013 12:04:39 GMT -8
So Is Apple not adding many more carriers because they can't make enough iPhones, or are the carriers not agreeing to their terms? It's obviously the latter, if they cannot sell as many as they did last quarter, since on the supply side it just gets easier as time goes on. This is not a "viewpoint" - it's simple logic and common sense that shouldn't even need to be debated. For clarity, let me rephrase: Apple is constrained by demand at their current price points. If they slash prices obviously demand is going to increase. The reason I didn't explain this earlier is because it's an obvious concept, and applies to every product sold by any company in existence. YOu would think so, but for Apple it is a different type of dilemma. Like TC said, their supply chain is very complex. They relay on multiple partners, but if one partner fails, it can impact the whole system. Foxconn was not joking when they complained about how hard it was to manufacture the iPHone 5. Heck look what happened to the iMac. They have lots of triggers in place to deal with issues, but the scale at which they are building makes it very challenging. If they miss the window of about 4 months then sales fall off a cliff. Customers are getting very savy about knowing when new stuff comes out. Apple is not going to produce more stuff knowing that 6 months later they need to switch components for the new iPhone or iPad. They have slowly increased manufacturing capacity with their partners, but they have done so in a very systematic way. Their margins are high because of this. Unlike everyone else that pumps millions more smart phones but somehow still manage to lose money. We went from being able to produce 600K in one quarter to 48 million while increasing market share and raising prices. No company in the world can ever claim such amazing numbers without being a monopoly. Books will be written about what Apple was able to do in the last 6 years. Your post has nothing to do with what I wrote. Yes, Apple's rapid production increase is truly impressive. However, it doesn't change the fact that they are constrained by demand for all but the holiday quarter. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 12:05:59 GMT -8
Anyone expect a halt from Apple today? It seems most people are in the same ballpark at least for EPS this quarter.
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