aapl
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Post by aapl on Oct 17, 2023 2:23:24 GMT -8
AAPL's showing some red in the premarkets again: 177.97 -0.75 (-0.42%) Tim Cook visits China to take in a Gamer Event - CNBC
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 17, 2023 5:37:48 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Oct 17, 2023 5:48:05 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2023 7:52:03 GMT -8
The relationship may not be as symbiotic as he was hoping. I guess I never understand how exactly you would prefer Apple dealt with the situation. If Apple were shipping a self-driving car to a country that drives on the left, the car would have to drive on the left. If Apple ships software/hardware and has an app store in China, then it has to comply with their rules. Even if their censorship rules are something that we don't have in the US. Do you see another viable solution? I don't think just throwing in the towel would be a better way, either directly or by not complying and then getting completely banned.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2023 8:14:33 GMT -8
Looks like at least some of the 15 pros are available without much lead times at Costco and at Apple. 6 of the 10 shown configs, which all include AppleCare+ with about a $30 total discount, deliver from Costco in 2 days. And for the configs I pulled up at Apple, they had listed delivery times at the start of November, but could be picked up at certain Apple stores today. An interesting thing to me was looking at the AppleCare+. It was really hard to find the coverage length, with no mention at Costco, and at Apple I didn't see it until seeing the payment options with the monthly choice. The choice with additional theft or loss coverage is only $70 more on the 15 pro for 2 years. The fine print says that Find My iPhone has to be turned on, and then it needs to be wiped and locked, if a theft happens. But "lost" is a little different, with Apple even having a video clip of one being lost over the side of a mountain. When using mine for photos while snorkeling in Hawaii, it could have slipped out of my hand while going over deeper water, lost to me. I did fine with it, but that worry kept me from bringing it out on the "swimming with the manta rays" nighttime tour. Pictures would have been cool on that amazing event (highly recommend it!!!), but it's an activity that hundreds see daily there on the Big Island, so if the website doesn't have cool pictures we can look at, I'm sure social media has plenty. And all while getting to enjoy the experience, and not worry about losing my iPhone. www.apple.com/support/products/iphone/
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Oct 17, 2023 8:15:10 GMT -8
An iPhone without any, or very few of the apps that you want isn’t much more than simply communication device. Let me add, a very expensive simple communication device. Is there a line in the sand that the Chinese government can draw that you think that Apple shouldn’t cross?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 17, 2023 8:31:46 GMT -8
Busy day at Apple Insider. How Apple has changed Option key behavior in macOS Sonoma. Lots of new options. Fortunately, as a non-developer these days and only ever did UNIX development, my desktop is seldom busy enough to need them, but I’ll probably take the time to familiarize myself with them anyway. YMMV
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2023 9:01:29 GMT -8
An iPhone without any, or very few of the apps that you want isn’t much more than simply communication device. Let me add, a very expensive simple communication device. Is there a line in the sand that the Chinese government can draw that you think that Apple shouldn’t cross? i just don't really see that as the choice. China isn't asking Apple to get rid of all apps. Instead it is limiting certain things, and it is doing it across the board. I coached youth soccer for a few years, where there is a variety of unpaid referees that are generally trying to do the right thing. Some are much more strict on certain things, or don't understand some of the rules. This is especially the case when a parent from the sidelines comes in to help, though there is extra confusion since AYSO has changed some rules over the years and has some different rules at different age groups. One of the first games like this was when the older brother of a kid offered to be the ref. And he did a great job. But every single time someone kicked it, it went off another player, and then went out, he'd call it wrong. But he did it consistently and evenly. It was just a part of the game, a "different" rule to play by and follow. Since that time this has happened a lot, especially by volunteers from the sideline but also by uniformed refs. Maybe one is really specific on throw ins, where another is fine with sloppiness. Another might not care about an incidental bounce off an arm, whereas another gives a penalty kick within the goal box. It's just a little different each time. But if it's called evenly and consistently, it's just a different "rule" for the game. I don't follow things closely enough to know if China is calling things evenly and consistently every single time, but they have some rules that they choose to enforce. I see Apple having enough sway that they can push back or negotiate a little on some of the things, but at the end of the day China has the power to decide how the game is played in their country. As I've said before, I think it is better that Apple is there and giving a little pushback or negotiating on things, rather that just walking away. To me that seems like the best choice, given the options out there. But maybe there is a better choice. You seem to bring this up quite a bit. What do you think Apple should do?
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Post by Lstream on Oct 17, 2023 10:07:10 GMT -8
I too would like to hear what Apple is supposed to do. I have asked this and crickets. China is a pain in the ass. The only way to avoid that pain is to leave the market. Who seriously wants that?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 17, 2023 10:43:05 GMT -8
An iPhone without any, or very few of the apps that you want isn’t much more than simply communication device. Let me add, a very expensive simple communication device. Is there a line in the sand that the Chinese government can draw that you think that Apple shouldn’t cross? I don't follow things closely enough to know if China is calling things evenly and consistently every single time, but they have some rules that they choose to enforce. I see Apple having enough sway that they can push back or negotiate a little on some of the things, but at the end of the day China has the power to decide how the game is played in their country. As I've said before, I think it is better that Apple is there and giving a little pushback or negotiating on things, rather that just walking away. To me that seems like the best choice, given the options out there. But maybe there is a better choice. You seem to bring this up quite a bit. What do you think Apple should do? IMHO, as usual Tim Cook is ahead of the game. This was the reason he accelerated the expansion to India. The effect of the COVID epidemic on Apple’s manufacturing sites in China was a clear warning about how seriously any large political or other similar condition could affect Apple’s production capabilities in China, despite Apple’s best efforts. While it will take a while for operations in India to come up to full speed, it has served a warning that Apple does have options, as well as the financial capabilities, to respond to any ill-considered actions taken by the Chinese government. Similarly, India has gotten a taste of what significant investment from Apple can do for their economic health, and my guess is they will be cautious about taking any actions that would jeopardize not only the current benefits, but also future possibilities that are already central to their planning.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2023 10:53:50 GMT -8
Consumer spending is up. That's good or bad depending on how you look at it, and it's hard to decide exactly what the different categories mean for Apple directly since the Electronics and Appliances category is down. Retail sales smash expectations in September with US consumer slowdown nowhere in sightI tend to think of Apple as special, and that if total spending is not down a lot, then Apple is doing ok. I'm sure some analysts will throw around some guesses, but it seems like from this data along it would be hard to get much more precise.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2023 11:16:45 GMT -8
I don't follow things closely enough to know if China is calling things evenly and consistently every single time, but they have some rules that they choose to enforce. I see Apple having enough sway that they can push back or negotiate a little on some of the things, but at the end of the day China has the power to decide how the game is played in their country. As I've said before, I think it is better that Apple is there and giving a little pushback or negotiating on things, rather that just walking away. To me that seems like the best choice, given the options out there. But maybe there is a better choice. You seem to bring this up quite a bit. What do you think Apple should do? IMHO, as usual Tim Cook is ahead of the game. This was the reason he accelerated the expansion to India. The effect of the COVID epidemic on Apple’s manufacturing sites in China was a clear warning about how seriously any large political or other similar condition could affect Apple’s production capabilities in China, despite Apple’s best efforts. While it will take a while for operations in India to come up to full speed, it has served a warning that Apple does have options, as well as the financial capabilities, to respond to any ill-considered actions taken by the Chinese government. Similarly, India has gotten a taste of what significant investment from Apple can do for their economic health, and my guess is they will be cautious about taking any actions that would jeopardize not only the current benefits, but also future possibilities that are already central to their planning. I think that's true on the manufacturing side, and it goes with Apple's general desire to have multiple suppliers. That gives them some leverage, but also some options if a problem comes up, no matter how that problem came about. But "China" has a bunch of different aspects. One is supporting the users and getting the related sales. This is good for Apple, but is also good for China. At this point in time, while I don't know exact user base or demographics, some portion of the population uses iPhones, and they wouldn't be happy if China stopped all iPhones from working tomorrow. The exacts of it might be up for debate, but in general it would be bad PR . Another is the investment by Apple and jobs created. My understanding is that this is a net positive to the country, financially, especially when considering all of the other suppliers. But I don't know the exact scale of this, and imagine that even if it were large, China would have the ability to just say "screw it" and kick Apple out, if they really wanted. OTOH, the 3rd biggie seems like something that is really important, of the top tier company sourcing, training and manufacturing in China. How do you even put a price tag comparison on that, if looking at the bigger picture. This keeps China on the cutting edge of many of the manufacturing areas, along with production of many of the parts. It creates well trained employees, who can then help other places come up to speed. And it just pushes China as the ideal place for other companies to do their manufacturing too. Many of the TSM articles talk of the trouble getting a top tier fab going outside of Taiwan, and that is even with many "close to the cutting edge" fabs out there. Even in this day and age of information, it is hard to put a full value on what it takes to get to that leading edge. We can see that in many places, but right now China is at that leading edge on mass assembly of small electronics, and I think they put enough of a value on that to want to stay there. But that's just what I think I see. Maybe there are other important things, or maybe China sees some of these things differently.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 17, 2023 19:53:35 GMT -8
I don’t disagree with anything you mentioned, especially that there are several sides to this picture, but I would remind you that before Steve Jobs passed, Tim Cook was the person at Apple who had responsibility at Apple for many of the production factors you mentioned. If anyone is capable of deciding how to approach managing relations with Apple’s production suppliers, I’ll put my money, literally, on Tim. Will there be challenges in responding to business factors that may result? Certainly, but Tim has demonstrated that he has been quite a capable leader in the management of the business relationships with a broad spectrum of Apple partners/suppliers. I see no reason to doubt that will continue.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Oct 18, 2023 1:37:39 GMT -8
The responses here have been amazing, and some were even a bit humorous. All I did was post a news story from Yahoo Finance, on a very slow day on the AFB, and pulled a line from the story and commented “ The relationship may not be as symbiotic as he was hoping” and everyone reads into it their own preconceived ideas. As I’ve said many times before, China is a mess, a house of cards being run by one very paranoid dictator where anything is possible. Reference Venezuela before and after Hugo Chavez. So what was it that drove everyone here to get out their pitchforks and touches? Was it the news story, that many millions of people also read, or was it my comment?
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Oct 18, 2023 1:41:36 GMT -8
I too would like to hear what Apple is supposed to do. I have asked this and crickets. China is a pain in the ass. The only way to avoid that pain is to leave the market. Who seriously wants that? It’s becoming obvious that Apple is not going to leave the Chinese market, so the question is what do you think will happen if Apple stays?
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2023 8:27:04 GMT -8
The responses here have been amazing, and some were even a bit humorous. All I did was post a news story from Yahoo Finance, on a very slow day on the AFB, and pulled a line from the story and commented “ The relationship may not be as symbiotic as he was hoping” and everyone reads into it their own preconceived ideas. As I’ve said many times before, China is a mess, a house of cards being run by one very paranoid dictator where anything is possible. Reference Venezuela before and after Hugo Chavez. So what was it that drove everyone here to get out their pitchforks and touches? Was it the news story, that many millions of people also read, or was it my comment? It isn’t just one post. You are a frequent critic of Apple when it comes to China. It leads to the natural question of what you would do about China if you were Apple? I’d really like to know what you think the correct answer is. It sure isn’t obvious to me, assuming they will continue to compete in China. Also, asking what you would do given the frequency of your China commentary is hardly pitchforks. Also, I have read the Chavez bio. I really doubt that China is going to go full-on bat-shit crazy like he did. I don’t think they are interested in economic suicide.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2023 8:32:34 GMT -8
I too would like to hear what Apple is supposed to do. I have asked this and crickets. China is a pain in the ass. The only way to avoid that pain is to leave the market. Who seriously wants that? It’s becoming obvious that Apple is not going to leave the Chinese market, so the question is what do you think will happen if Apple stays? I think they will continue to sell large quantities of phones there. And they will also still build product there. And the Chinese will continue to throw challenges at them. Which Apple will work behind-the-scenes with them on, to try and minimize damage. But in the end, they will do their best to follow the rules of doing business there. I see no other choice. And I strongly believe that it’s in the best interest of shareholders for them to do exactly that. Sure beats throwing a tantrum and leaving the market.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Oct 18, 2023 12:52:14 GMT -8
The responses here have been amazing, and some were even a bit humorous. All I did was post a news story from Yahoo Finance, on a very slow day on the AFB, and pulled a line from the story and commented “ The relationship may not be as symbiotic as he was hoping” and everyone reads into it their own preconceived ideas. As I’ve said many times before, China is a mess, a house of cards being run by one very paranoid dictator where anything is possible. Reference Venezuela before and after Hugo Chavez. So what was it that drove everyone here to get out their pitchforks and touches? Was it the news story, that many millions of people also read, or was it my comment? It isn’t just one post. You are a frequent critic of Apple when it comes to China. It leads to the natural question of what you would do about China if you were Apple? I’d really like to know what you think the correct answer is. It sure isn’t obvious to me, assuming they will continue to compete in China. Also, asking what you would do given the frequency of your China commentary is hardly pitchforks. Also, I have read the Chavez bio. I really doubt that China is going to go full-on bat-shit crazy like he did. I don’t think they are interested in economic suicide. Yes your right that I have been beating the drum about China for several years now as it became obvious that Chairman Xi was not going to continue to follow the party line and integrate the country into the world economy as his predecessors had. But instead he viewed himself as the successor to Mao. So he started doing what dictators normally do and eliminated anyone he view as competition. He also started to beat the drums for world expansion. And he's killed so many messages that none are willing to provide him with any meaningful information. So he is flying blind. And during this period Apple continued to increase their dependence in this country in spite of all of the warnings. But I'm sure that you know all of these facts. I feel for that person that is left with cleaning up this mess after Tim retires. But what do I know, I'm just someone on an internet forum that is heavily invested in Apple.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2023 15:27:39 GMT -8
The way I read your comment and others like them is that the only satisfactory answer for you is to not do business in China at all.
If I was succeeding Cook, I would much rather deal with the complexities of China, than to lose by default there. Which would mean lost sales measured in the billions and the loss of shareholder value that would have resulted in.
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