CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 23, 2023 3:16:19 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Oct 23, 2023 4:08:15 GMT -8
Macrumors has possibly new Macs by Months end and selected groups of Retail getting advance Training on Vision Pro.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Oct 23, 2023 4:47:33 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 23, 2023 4:57:01 GMT -8
Watch for Microsoft and Alphabet on Tuesday, Meta on Wednesday, and Amazon, Intel on Thursday.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Oct 23, 2023 4:58:05 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Oct 23, 2023 5:09:58 GMT -8
Apparently Rolling Stone doesn’t know what a 1st Gen IPod looks like…
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2023 7:28:24 GMT -8
AAPL stayed just above its 200 DMA, while the S&P dipped just below 4200, also about the 200 DMA. I didn't look at the RSI until a bit later when it was 37.5, but for AAPL it probably got down to around 35.
Looking back at this without the baggage of current articles or emotions, it seems likely that this will be pretty textbook. That probably helps some people, but I don't personally know how much faith to put into it. OTOH, there is a tiny bit of cash in the kids ROTHs still, the last 1/3 or so. Seems like a decent time to make a purchase, even if in other accounts I wouldn't want to take on more risk by borrowing more. But cash in an account for the very long term? Time to go shopping!
We had a long warm stretch here so it was hard to remember that the year is moving along. But now the temps are dropping and the leaves are changing, even if their season was shorter this year. AAPL earnings is about 10 days away, on November 2nd.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2023 7:55:05 GMT -8
My youngest came to me last week just before heading off to bed, and asked "so you know my account we opened a few months ago? How is it doing?"
Well, remembering that there was still up to a third in there to invest, I just made the last few purchases. Generally they were aiming for a third in AAPL, a third in QQQ and a third in VOO. My son asked to buy some NVDA, maybe even on the day it was at the ATH, so he has a share of that in his mix at I think $490 (nope, it's at $454 so not the peak).
...so when wondering who is buying during the day, when the stock is moving around a lot, it can be a lot of different things. Today I was part of it, buying single digit shares of some index ETFs and AAPL. And even putting in limit purchases a couple pennies below the current asks, and then waiting seconds or up to a minute for them to fill.
Fun times.
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Oct 23, 2023 8:48:02 GMT -8
Horace has posted his 4th quarter earnings guesses here.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2023 9:58:06 GMT -8
Horace has posted his 4th quarter earnings guesses here. That graph of EPS is pretty impressive. I didn't realize EPS had basically doubled during covid, and that it is holding!!! Good to see his predictions. There are times where it would be great to see a euphoric pushed return to a P/E of 40. But the constant push in the right direction will slowly get AAPL where it seems it should be, over time. And I like seeing "neutral" weightings that still expect AAPL above $200 (the one today gave a $208 target on a neutral rating). Euphoric levels might have to wait until the next big thing, whether that is some new product, or it's the ramping up of a current or already announced product. We can't have tulip mania every day, but it can bring some fun times.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 23, 2023 12:01:30 GMT -8
The negative streak broke. Not by much, but it closed green today.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 23, 2023 12:12:43 GMT -8
This could be interesting. ARM chips for Windows, with Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm making them. Nvidia to make Arm-based PC chips in major new challenge to IntelIt's worth reading the whole thing. Qualcomm making these exclusively for years, such as for lower powered laptops. These other makers getting into the play. And why is this being pushed?
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mark
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Post by mark on Oct 23, 2023 20:52:02 GMT -8
Making ARM-based PC chips could really put Intel down. ARM architectures are usually substantially less expensive than Intel architectures, and are also more commoditized at this point. So not only could they be cheaper to make, but because they are commoditized they also come with a lower profit margin to the chip seller. That could really potentially be another nail in Intel's coffin. What'll they have left?
As far as the kind of euphoria that could push the P/E to 40, with the kind of growth exhibited lately, there is as much likelihood that the P/E gets pushed down to 25, or even 20. I'm not saying I'm "bearish" per se, just saying there is a possibility of it. And that would cause my March '24 170/190 BCS to go to zero.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 24, 2023 5:40:41 GMT -8
As far as the kind of euphoria that could push the P/E to 40, with the kind of growth exhibited lately, there is as much likelihood that the P/E gets pushed down to 25, or even 20. I'm not saying I'm "bearish" per se, just saying there is a possibility of it. And that would cause my March '24 170/190 BCS to go to zero. You're right. The kind of euphoria needed in most cases to have the P/E visit 40 again is going to take some time. Many of the big wall of worry items for the market will have to be mitigated, and it will have to look like AAPL could do no wrong. And it might never happen, as Apple continues to transform as a company. I don't think AAPL ever revisited the PE of 60+ from ~1999, at least in a meaningful way (ie not like Clorox right now with a PE of 103 because earnings dropped off, most recently due to a cyber attack that caused ordering to get messed up, but it's more over time since the covid spike). But if it does, it will likely take years. 18 months would be possible, but 3-5+ years is more likely. OTOH, while from a "be greedy" standpoint I wouldn't mind seeing AAPL overpriced, instead with a long term view I'm fine that it isn't and things are less bubbly and so pop and fall less.
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