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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 3, 2023 4:12:25 GMT -8
Well, that wasn't fun. Earnings last night. Numbers looked good, mostly, but the outlook was flat. WallStreet didn't care for that. AAPL currently trading at $173.62 -3.95 (-2.22%) (it was -$6 at the end of After Market last night) RSI is 56.68
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 3, 2023 5:51:30 GMT -8
All the $200 per share price targets appear unsustainable for the foreseeable future Thanks for the graphs. Like looking at the Fed interest rates, the trick is looking forward instead of back. It looks like the EPS were equal or greater in the 3 most recent quarters, so this next Q will replace the only down one. That's a little positive. But we'll have to see how this Q, and the economy and holiday season in general, are doing. Saying this Q will be about what last year's was still has some wiggle room, especially if Apple tends to guide on the conservative side. OTOH, it is a cautious statement to be reminded that it is unlikely this Q will be a blowout one. And they have a month of data to help give that guidance in the right direction. Guidance for $200, sometime over the next year, seems possible. But how possible or likely? 50%? 70%? 80%? 90%? That is a little tougher, but I'd probably guess at somewhere between 70% and 85%. What do other people think? How likely do you think it is that AAPL sees $200 sometime in the next 12 months? I think there's a 20% chance we see $200, but I'll settle for $190 by March (due to my aforementioned 170/190 BCS). The reason the probability is so low is because TTM earnings are $6.12 right now, and a $200 price makes the P/E nearly 33. Does a company that isn't growing deserve a P/E of 30+? Usually not. The 20% chance is based on the chances of showing growth over the next few quarters. It is entirely possible that there will be some growth due to a few reasons: 1) Maybe a bunch of people that put off their iPhone upgrades will decide to upgrade during the next few quarters. 2) The new personal computer lineup is pretty compelling, it is possible that more and more people will either upgrade or switch from PC to Mac. 3) Services is likely to continue to grow, though I am a little worried about the Apple TV+ price increase. Gone are the days where people simply say to themselves "I'll just get all the streaming services because they are so cheap", if you do that today, it's easily $50+ a month. Even we are looking at pruning some of our streaming services and TV+ is indeed a candidate (Netflix is definitely staying, that's not negotiable, but all the others are candidates). $200 ? It all depends on the Apple Vision Pro. I doubt Vision Pro will have much effect in 2024, it'll be slowly rolling out and won't show any big numbers. If it is a success, it'll begin to show that success in 2025/26. Even if a million are sold in 2024, and it won't be a million, that'll only add $3.5B to revenue. And $3.5B is less than 1% of total revenue.
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duckpins
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Post by duckpins on Nov 3, 2023 7:48:14 GMT -8
Netflix and Comcast have the best TV software. apple should think about that.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 3, 2023 8:02:20 GMT -8
Netflix and Comcast have the best TV software. apple should think about that. What do you like the most about them? And is it better across the board, on a computer, iOS, and TV? I've been bugged by most of the various streaming interfaces, but haven't used them all recently. We have a mac mini connected to the TV, with a full keyboard, so that has improved things a little by making it easy to put things into the search field. But I know at one time I really liked that Netflix tried to pick out things for you based on your rating of things you had watched. I don't know if that still works well, or if it's something that most people don't use, similar to how things have changed in iTunes/Music over the years.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 3, 2023 8:32:20 GMT -8
I know there are more detailed ocean shipping information out there, but the details in this article put it in perspective. Shipping giant laying off 10,000 as pandemic boom turns to bustFor the math to work on that, assuming the number of containers shipped was flat or went down, the average shipping cost must have still been higher last Q. A drop by more than 50% YOY has to be great for companies having lots of things shipped by sea....like Apple. FWIW, weaving around the back side of one of the local Walmarts a couple weeks ago, they already had their back lots littered with shipping containers. In at least the last few years this seems to be their way to deal with the holiday rush. But that also means that many places are shipping their holiday items in Q3. It would be interesting to know how long Apple tends to have to ship things by air vs sea, and the relative costs. Back long long ago, with the 15" lampshade iMac, at a shareholder meeting Fred Anderson said it was an extra $75 per unit to ship by air (I believe...I'd have to check my notes to be certain). It's hard to know how costs have changed in the 18-20 years since then, especially as Apple has worked to make things smaller and lighter, and making the shipping boxes smaller and lighter. I don't know if Apple would continue to ship by air anything that has a wait time over a week, or if it would start doing a mix of air and sea for a certain product even while it has a longer wait time. There's a compromise there somewhere, just as some places have at least certain iPhone 15 Pros in stock, but my mom was happy to order one through AT&T (they were giving her $700 off for her 12 Pro) and waiting 1.5-2 weeks, arriving in a couple days. It will be interesting to see how everyone feels about the holiday season once Black Friday comes. But it seems like US holiday spending has pretty consistently been a pleasant surprise, even in times where economists and analysts start to worry that spending might possibly be down for a season. AAPL is only a buck twenty-five off of yesterday's close. Those AH prices can be twitchy, and aren't always (often?) a true sense of how an announcement or earnings are interpreted by the masses as a whole. $200 is less than 15% away. An 85% chance of seeing it within a year might be a little too bullish in this environment and with what Apple has seen over the past year for growth. But especially if AAPL stays above $170 for the next few trading days, I feel pretty good about giving a 70% chance, though I also think $220 has a 50% chance. We'll see. Sometimes it is tough to be realistic when also looking at both the pessimistic and optimistic views.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Nov 3, 2023 8:52:55 GMT -8
$200 ? It all depends on the Apple Vision Pro. I doubt Vision Pro will have much effect in 2024, it'll be slowly rolling out and won't show any big numbers. If it is a success, it'll begin to show that success in 2025/26. Even if a million are sold in 2024, and it won't be a million, that'll only add $3.5B to revenue. And $3.5B is less than 1% of total revenue. I agree that it will take a while before the needle gets moved significantly and so much of that movement will depend on the available software (apps) that are made available soon after launch. But if you look back a few weeks ago when the AppleVision Pro was first introduced, we saw a significant bump in share price over nothing more than a video about the device and its basic capabilities. Looking back to the iPhone and the iPad, the thing that that really made the sales go through the roof was when people started to visualize how the device could change their lives. Because of the background that those two devices have provided, plus a whole generation that have grown up with them, it should be easier for everyone to see Vision Pros advantages. And that includes Mr. Market. But that’s only if someone (Apple) or something doesn’t screw up.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 3, 2023 9:02:57 GMT -8
It was interesting, especially thinking of splitting potential buyers into pyramid tiers. To me the Edition level Apple Watch showed that there was some number of people willing to pay nearly anything. Apple has occasionally gone after the "special" market. I think they were still hoping the Cube would go big, but it was up-priced a bit. The 20th Anniversary Mac is a more obvious limited scope one. Apple now has some special watch bands, and of course there are the highest memory config versions of products, but it hasn't really pushed special limited release versions at a premium price too often. Apple could charge an extra $100 for the first 10,000 iPhones, though the better way might be to have a limited release color. But they don't, even though some companies (40th anniversary Toyota 4runner) manage to make some special limited release products or trim levels, some that charge extra and some that just have extra features that add to the price. I guess it comes down to choice, and customers. Apple has expanded its number of unique products greatly since the initial trimmed down 2x2 grid of products, but the majority of choice these days is in color. 7 choices in color for an iMac, so many that they didn't even put the silver one in the pic at the top of www.apple.com/imac/While I'd like to see a few more product choices other than color, and while I see and like having color choices for a portable unit while I am more of a traditionalist on colors for a desktop unit including an iMac, Apple has done this for a long time and only rarely has had different price points for different colors. And while the extra $100 for a black iBook vs a white was odd, they still sold them. I think it would be interesting for Apple to occasionally have some limited edition products at a higher price point, even if most or all of the difference is just color or case material. Sometimes having a product for that top section of the market is worthwhile.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 3, 2023 9:55:02 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 3, 2023 9:55:41 GMT -8
I doubt Vision Pro will have much effect in 2024, it'll be slowly rolling out and won't show any big numbers. If it is a success, it'll begin to show that success in 2025/26. Even if a million are sold in 2024, and it won't be a million, that'll only add $3.5B to revenue. And $3.5B is less than 1% of total revenue. I agree that it will take a while before the needle gets moved significantly and so much of that movement will depend on the available software (apps) that are made available soon after launch. But if you look back a few weeks ago when the AppleVision Pro was first introduced, we saw a significant bump in share price over nothing more than a video about the device and its basic capabilities. Looking back to the iPhone and the iPad, the thing that that really made the sales go through the roof was when people started to visualize how the device could change their lives. Because of the background that those two devices have provided, plus a whole generation that have grown up with them, it should be easier for everyone to see Vision Pros advantages. And that includes Mr. Market. But that’s only if someone (Apple) or something doesn’t screw up. It's not just a matter of not screwing up, though that's a big part of it. It will need, really need, to have something so compelling about it that people are willing to spend $3500+ on it (probably over $4000 once you add accessories and sales tax). Think back to the first iPhone, it was cool, very cool, but it only started to become compelling about 6 quarters in when it sold over 6M in Q4 of 2008. We may be able to determine "success" of vision pro until 4Q of 2025, maybe even later because, after all, $4000 is a lot, and the market for $4000 stuff is quite a bit smaller than it is for $1000 stuff (like iPhones).
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Nov 3, 2023 13:53:16 GMT -8
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Nov 3, 2023 13:57:42 GMT -8
I agree that it will take a while before the needle gets moved significantly and so much of that movement will depend on the available software (apps) that are made available soon after launch. But if you look back a few weeks ago when the AppleVision Pro was first introduced, we saw a significant bump in share price over nothing more than a video about the device and its basic capabilities. Looking back to the iPhone and the iPad, the thing that that really made the sales go through the roof was when people started to visualize how the device could change their lives. Because of the background that those two devices have provided, plus a whole generation that have grown up with them, it should be easier for everyone to see Vision Pros advantages. And that includes Mr. Market. But that’s only if someone (Apple) or something doesn’t screw up. It's not just a matter of not screwing up, though that's a big part of it. It will need, really need, to have something so compelling about it that people are willing to spend $3500+ on it (probably over $4000 once you add accessories and sales tax). Think back to the first iPhone, it was cool, very cool, but it only started to become compelling about 6 quarters in when it sold over 6M in Q4 of 2008. We may be able to determine "success" of vision pro until 4Q of 2025, maybe even later because, after all, $4000 is a lot, and the market for $4000 stuff is quite a bit smaller than it is for $1000 stuff (like iPhones). I predict Apple will make far more profit from content subscriptions for AVP than from selling the AVP hardware. Multiples more.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2023 7:30:54 GMT -8
It's not just a matter of not screwing up, though that's a big part of it. It will need, really need, to have something so compelling about it that people are willing to spend $3500+ on it (probably over $4000 once you add accessories and sales tax). Think back to the first iPhone, it was cool, very cool, but it only started to become compelling about 6 quarters in when it sold over 6M in Q4 of 2008. We may be able to determine "success" of vision pro until 4Q of 2025, maybe even later because, after all, $4000 is a lot, and the market for $4000 stuff is quite a bit smaller than it is for $1000 stuff (like iPhones). I predict Apple will make far more profit from content subscriptions for AVP than from selling the AVP hardware. Multiples more. It also seems that unlike other new product launches where Apple generally comes out with a standard one at first and then gets even better with a Pro version, it is going the other way. To help differentiate, gain interest, and maybe get a bigger chunk of those top funds (you could call it the Tesla model of doing it, with their then expensive Roadster first with limited production and demand), Apple is going Pro first. Later they can come out with a standard version, with a lower cost and higher production and availability, but an ecosystem should at least be started by then. In general this makes a lot of sense, but on the production side it depends on what your constraints are. But on the consumer marketing side, you're setting that price anchor point high, and getting it out to those people that don't mind the pricing. As long as the product is good and desirable, then when a lower priced but lower featured product comes in, there should be some demand that just wasn't up for the full pro price point. This week I was driving my 13 year old back from an art class at sunset, and she just missed a great picture of it as we passed an open space. First she said that there should be this thing on glasses that could take pictures, and I told her about Apple Vision Pro and some of the other ones out there. Then she talked about how she didn't really think it could be done, but what about a chip in your brain that just takes those pictures (time to look more at Musk's other ventures). The future is coming. And the kids can see it coming, the same ones that are used to touch screens that they can swipe being on everything.
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Nov 4, 2023 8:45:03 GMT -8
We’re on vacation and I brought along a used Apple TV I picked up for $20. I am using the ESPN app to watch Clemson play Notre Dame and I’m seeing something I’ve never seen before. (I usually watch all my television sports on a Tivo.) Many of the ads shown in the commercial breaks during the ESPN broadcast are specific for AppleTV with QR codes to scan with my iPhone and options for interacting with the Apple Remote to votes on some surveys on 2 different ads and to swipe to see alternate images in a Mercedes Benz ad. Has anyone seen these types of ads before and when did this all start? I did swipe in the MB ad so I wonder if Apple will track this and show me similar ads in Apple News…
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 4, 2023 15:51:24 GMT -8
We’re on vacation and I brought along a used Apple TV I picked up for $20. I am using the ESPN app to watch Clemson play Notre Dame and I’m seeing something I’ve never seen before. (I usually watch all my television sports on a Tivo.) Many of the ads shown in the commercial breaks during the ESPN broadcast are specific for AppleTV with QR codes to scan with my iPhone and options for interacting with the Apple Remote to votes on some surveys on 2 different ads and to swipe to see alternate images in a Mercedes Benz ad. Has anyone seen these types of ads before and when did this all start? I did swipe in the MB ad so I wonder if Apple will track this and show me similar ads in Apple News… I've read about interactive advertising and how it's coming soon, but I've never seen one in real life yet!
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