chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 4, 2023 6:13:34 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Nov 4, 2023 9:20:51 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,111
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Post by Dave on Nov 6, 2023 1:59:57 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,111
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Post by Dave on Nov 6, 2023 2:15:12 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,647
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2023 6:54:24 GMT -8
There's always the question of when and why the government should interfere with the market. I just read a section from 1928, of politicians wanting to stop speculative investing in the US stock market. But not the whole market, just the speculative stuff that seemed like it was pushing into a bubble. In the end they just messed around with interest rated, bumping them up, then a few months later bringing them back down fearing they were doing more harm that good. And then things continued going up into 1929, cruising along while the DOW kept going higher though fewer and fewer stocks were participating. Apparently the big ones then were the likes of GM, and RCA. The index hit a high of 391 on September 3rd... At the stock market overview last week, one of the people liked pointing out that international stocks have outperformed the S&P for the past 2 years. Apparently it had been a lot time since that had happened. But IMO, if there isn't a huge reason for it's advantage going forward, it's more similar to when I first got info on my company 401k and the 6-8 choices I had for investments, basically looking at the performance in the past and choosing off of that. And maybe that works out ok. But the real question is what will do the best going forward. Figuring that out, or making some educated guesses at that, is a lot tougher. But I hadn't heard or paid attention to international stocks doing well, though it could very well have a lot to do with the S&P not doing too well in that specific timeframe. As we know, AAPL has had timeframes here and there where it hasn't done too well. But the long term has run with a different story.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,647
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 6, 2023 10:31:19 GMT -8
At the stock market overview last week, one of the people liked pointing out that international stocks have outperformed the S&P for the past 2 years. Apparently it had been a lot time since that had happened. But IMO, if there isn't a huge reason for it's advantage going forward, it's more similar to when I first got info on my company 401k and the 6-8 choices I had for investments, basically looking at the performance in the past and choosing off of that. And maybe that works out ok. But the real question is what will do the best going forward. Figuring that out, or making some educated guesses at that, is a lot tougher. But I hadn't heard or paid attention to international stocks doing well, though it could very well have a lot to do with the S&P not doing too well in that specific timeframe. As we know, AAPL has had timeframes here and there where it hasn't done too well. But the long term has run with a different story. I try to not normally quote myself, but I was curious and looked into this a little, and it doesn't look good. Using the 2 year time period he gave, using the stat of November, MSCI is down something like 6-13% depending on if I am looking at Yahoo's futures graph or business insider's MSCI graph. And of course you have to be careful, since there is also a MSCI, Inc company. You don't want that one. markets.businessinsider.com/index/msci-worldfinance.yahoo.com/quote/MWL=F?p=MWL=F&.tsrc=fin-srchThe S&P is also down just a little, like 5-6%, in the last 2 years. finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPCSo, they are both down a bit, but on the same order of magnitude, and actually both pretty much the same. Would you recommend someone changes their investments due to this? Or would this be one of those "talking your book" type things. Maybe there is some other world index that does this better, or maybe he specifically called out emerging markets. Hopefully that is the case, because for the 2 year period of MSCI vs S&P, I'm just not seeing a compelling reason to even bring it up.
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