|
Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 7, 2023 6:11:38 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by macster on Nov 7, 2023 7:44:07 GMT -8
I’m wondering what’s driving this upward rally after I was such a downer the other day about believing we would not see $200 for some time.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
|
Post by 4aapl on Nov 7, 2023 8:37:31 GMT -8
I’m wondering what’s driving this upward rally after I was such a downer the other day about believing we would not see $200 for some time. I think the Hon Hoi details artman posted yesterday is a big one, being forward looking for Apple. The other is that things are ok, and not really overvalued. Stocks seemed to be pricing in a fall, with 3 lower highs and a move down over the last 4 months, so since things didn’t get worse stocks are rebounding a bit. And for aapl, while revenue outlook was given as about the same, it’s a short Q and apple will likely beat, so the real number is 5-8%, or possibly a bit more. We’re still in that strange middle ground for the market and fed, until interest rates start going down which will likely take 9-12 months imo. I picked up a little at 167. I’ll likely sell a little at 187 for a quick gain while not keeping the extra risk/borrowing for too long. But it looks like 3T is at just under 192. I don’t see huge reasons for the stock or market to completely take off, even if 2-3 years out looks good. Given that, and paying around 6.6% to borrow quite a bit, I’ll take some of the extra off the table if given a good chance, while keeping the large core position.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Nov 7, 2023 11:01:44 GMT -8
Our sister stock BRK is down since good earnings. The stock was up 50+ from below 300 in the Spring. That is a great move. Eventually it will find a bottom here and then move up again. If the earnings beats continue hard to see the price going down. Rio down. But iron ore going much higher according to some and lower according to hedge funds. Pay a good dividend too.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Nov 7, 2023 15:12:07 GMT -8
I’m wondering what’s driving this upward rally after I was such a downer the other day about believing we would not see $200 for some time. Its that old 'The markets can remain irrational...' What is going on? I don't feel like I have a good gauge on sentiment at the moment. Probably because I haven't had enough time too read all/participate in groups like this over the last year or so. Generally I like to have a 5 year horizon on my sense of where Apple is headed. Up til now it's been a great way to manage the inevitable noise of daily/weekly/quaterly falls in APPL. Having a 5 year horizon lets you not get stressed over the noise. However, I have somewhat lost control of that 5 year sense, so I am unsettled. I have a few unanswered questions in my mind - what happens, post Cook? The next generation will not have had direct contact with SJ and even though he said, "don't say ;What would Steve do'", but there will inevitably be cultural shift over time. - is Vision Pro the right answer? It's pricey, It's different. Will it gain traction fast enough to keep the Apple spark alive? - TITAN... Is Apple spinning its wheels, or are they getting value from the years and $$$ they have invested? - At some point iPhone will lose its magic appeal. I know the ecosystem is sticky Anyways, enough of my 'itrrational' ramblings.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
|
Post by 4aapl on Nov 7, 2023 20:56:20 GMT -8
I have a few unanswered questions in my mind - what happens, post Cook? The next generation will not have had direct contact with SJ and even though he said, "don't say ;What would Steve do'", but there will inevitably be cultural shift over time. - is Vision Pro the right answer? It's pricey, It's different. Will it gain traction fast enough to keep the Apple spark alive? - TITAN... Is Apple spinning its wheels, or are they getting value from the years and $$$ they have invested? - At some point iPhone will lose its magic appeal. I know the ecosystem is sticky Anyways, enough of my 'itrrational' ramblings. There's no correct answer for any of these, mainly because we don't know the future, but they aren't all completely scary. There are people, at Apple or no longer at Apple, that were there when SJ was. While I could see thinking there is a benefit to that overlap, the even more important thing might be being a long time Mac user, so that they understand the past, the path that Apple has taken, and basically the culture of Apple. The corporate culture of Apple is important, but the culture of Apple is even more so. We don't know yet about Vision Pro. It seems the naming points to a non-Pro version, at some point. Even so, it will be a new thing, and so the "will it gain traction" and "if so, how fast" is important. I doubt that future portable battery chemistry is the only think we see out of Titan. It could be that they want to compete, but that their preferred solution doesn't have consumer support yet. Or pricing. Or something. The consumer currently has been pushing for a 100% solution to what they are used to, generally full size vehicles with 200-300 mile range, which can get pricey but still might not fit every perceived need, like being able to recharge as quick as filling a gas tank, on those occasional long trips. Plug-in hybrids only get about 40 miles on just electric. Maybe Apple feels a small smart-car sized vehicle with a 40-80 mile range is what they would like to see, but that the US consumer isn't generally looking for that right now. I don't know. I do know that a current EV wouldn't be a 100% replacement for any of our 4 cars at the moment, but I also feel that maybe changing the mindset could have one be fine. With that mindset, one with a 100 mile range, and a price $5k or more less, would probably work well for us even if it isn't a perfect replacement. But along with that EV front is the self-driving or mostly self-driving that we are on the cusp of. Tesla self-driving accidents show that things might not be fully there yet, though we don't tend to hear how the miles per incident or miles per fatality compare to a human. And that's what really matters. But for Apple, there's just so many unknowns at least for us outsiders, but I trust that they are making a good choice (even if that were to mean to put it on hold after spending a lot on R&D). On the iPhone, it seems like the 2 things are to keep improving, and to keep quality up. If Apple started lagging on something that consumers cared about, whether that is camera power, speed, screen characteristics, battery life, or even foldability, that could let things change. Likewise if their SW or HW quality was to get worse, that could be a problem. But as long as they stay on the ball, including looking for the thing that might eventually replace a standard cell phone form factor or whole unit, then they should be ok. Something could blindside them. But if paying attention, it shouldn't. On that note, the Blackberry movie was good, though a bit slow to start. It might be on netflix. We watched it about a month ago. It's good to pay attention and make sure that Apple stays on track, while watching for weakness. I don't think these are things to worry about at the moment, but I do think it's a good idea to think about them and other potential issues, and to try to do so with a level mind. It's also worthwhile to pay attention to companies that didn't manage to stay on track, whether that is Blackberry, or whether that is much more historic ones like GM and RCA. They both came up in the "Lords of Finance" book for the Great Depression, since they were both top dogs back then. I think it said GM went from 81 to 10, whereas RCA went from 101 to 2. The Dow as a whole dropped nearly 90% in 2.5 years, from 381 to 41. Nice to see AAPL with some green. It's at or just above the last peak. I'm not into most of the technicals, but I think the general feeling is that if it has another up day from here, it should have a good chance at getting up to where the previous relative peak was, at about 190. I'm game for it.
|
|