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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 20, 2023 5:00:33 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Nov 20, 2023 6:21:00 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 20, 2023 6:38:00 GMT -8
Things move quick sometimes. I don't know all the players, or all that Apple has going, but I expect Apple was on the ball enough to see this as an opportunity and at least think about it a little bit. CNN has their story too. And, pleasing to me, they fixed the quote two! www.cnn.com/2023/11/20/tech/sam-altman-joins-microsoft/index.htmlIn the vein of the "do you want to keep selling sugar water" history, it seems like Apple could have made Sam a solid offer based on changing the world, but with a company that believes in privacy and protecting the user.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 20, 2023 7:00:24 GMT -8
OMG, Dan Ives isn't the highest target? I'm sure he'll fix that shortly.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 20, 2023 8:32:01 GMT -8
OMG, Dan Ives isn't the highest target? I'm sure he'll fix that shortly. It's the "bull case" targets that get the headlines. I thought Katy did a good job, but often her base case was only a 10% gain target. But then she'd throw out bull and bear cases, with things like a 50% increase or a 35% decrease. And it was something like those "edge cases" had 15-20% chances, each, with the remaining 60% probability being that bland base case. But I guess that's the trade-off, to not having to be overly stuck with the safety prediction, and yet not go all crazy bullish on a bubble like Zaky and others. So I like the approach. Maybe it was the lack of conviction in the details that I didn't like. Overall being bullish and understanding that the market skews positive especially for non-failing companies, I would have tried to frame it with a 10% bear case (stuff happens), a 60% base case, and a 30% bull case. That might not seem like a huge difference, but at least it shows that predictions skew in the bullish direction instead of being more evenly distributed around a somewhat bland base prediction. Nice to see $191. I worry things may run out of steam here, with with the holiday season upon us hopefully any pause will just be a regrouping before a further upswing. But admittedly, when thinking about that in a sub-quarter timeframe without any real positive news, it's more of just a wish.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 20, 2023 9:22:12 GMT -8
Someone else mentioned this last week, and I had just thought about the same thing. Is Microsoft still Apple's major competitor? Have your feelings changed for Microsoft over the last 5 years or more? With the AI changes this weekend, it seems like MSFT is the big winner, while OpenAI fumbled things. Microsoft emerges as clear winner from OpenAI turmoil with Altman on boardBut is that a problem or disadvantage to Apple? Who are Apple's biggest competitors these days? So much is tied to the iPhone, the intertwined app store, and the subscription services that are used primarily on the iPhone. And MSFT just isn't a player there. Google is running the competition show with Android, even if they aren't the primary HW maker. Add in search, and they are a behemoth. I would have liked to see Apple snatch up Sam and some of the OpenAI players that were looking for a change. But I just don't see MSFT as being a major competitor these days, and so don't feel bad about the change. At least at the moment. What do you think? Do you worry much about MSFT as a competitor these days? Or do you still consider them, thinking that with some time and a few good moves they could be a threat again?
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aapl
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Post by aapl on Nov 20, 2023 9:46:50 GMT -8
snip Who are Apple's biggest competitors these days? snip I've been saying this for more than a decade - 'Apple has no competition and its biggest threat is itself.' There is no other company like Apple. The way they are organized, how they operate and the way they decide on what products and markets to deliver and go into is what makes it unique. This run isn't over and won't be until the 'company' changes. And by that I mean I'm not going to worry until its culture changes from within.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 20, 2023 10:41:39 GMT -8
Finaaly filled the gap and broke thru the 3 .5 month barrier at 190 or so. Good sign as we move into the holidays. Put spreads or short term calls for folks who like to gamble with options. Apple might explore better content for its TV model along with a better interface. There is no reason not to have a catalogue of great old movies and classic TV shows. They have the money to afford same and to make there interface work with various cABLE providers so Apple tv becomes seamless instead of cumbersome. Comcast has a the best interface, Charter is ridiculous, Charter doesn't have features Tivo had decades ago. Maybe buy Tivo if it still exists for their software?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 20, 2023 10:43:43 GMT -8
90% of the OpenAI team have threatened to leave to join the new Microsoft AI team. Microsoft came out the winner on this one.
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aapl
fire starter
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Post by aapl on Nov 20, 2023 11:05:12 GMT -8
90% of the OpenAI team have threatened to leave to join the new Microsoft AI team. Microsoft came out the winner on this one. This letter might be fake. #12 is a board member.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,113
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Post by Dave on Nov 20, 2023 11:17:33 GMT -8
Microsoft, as long as Microsoft dominates enterprise they will be dominant with the consumer. And if/when they become the dominant source of AI then they will become dangerous. But back when it was Windows vs Mac the only way to compete was through comparison. Ease of use and safety, which Apple won, in my view. So when it comes to AI, if Apple is going to play in that sandbox, then it will need to be the same type of comparison. Especially safety. But maybe not as few seemed to care about their safety with Google as long as Google continued to give access to their software away. But who knows how this story will play out. Just a thought.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 20, 2023 13:02:59 GMT -8
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Nov 20, 2023 13:06:16 GMT -8
I don't know about this Microsoft AI takeover. Given the incredible dead weight of the Windows Codebase, Anything that comes out of Microsoft will eventually sink under its own weight. Look at what happened when they hired David Cutler to save their bacon with Windows. Cutler had written Digitals RSX-11 and the VAX operating system, but despite his best efforts, we ended up with Windows XP and things went downhill from there. It does appear that the insanity of Windows 10 years has improved, but I have yet to see a Microsoft product that wasn't a bloated marketer-driven nightmare. Even a pillar of their products like EXCEL which was initially developed elsewhere is a poorly documented, inefficiently designed tool. When I was forced to use it, I only billed clients for half the hours I worked out of common decency. Maybe I have never forgiven these creeps for stealing the graphical interface from the MAC.
Artificial Intelligence might help Microsoft, but not nearly as much as Artificial Ethics would have. We'll see. At least they didn't go to Google
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aapl
fire starter
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Post by aapl on Nov 20, 2023 13:29:12 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 20, 2023 15:50:34 GMT -8
Thanks for posting the link! I was just about to do so myself. It's a very well-written article, IMO...and should be read by all AAPL investors. I enjoyed the article before I even looked at the author's name.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 20, 2023 17:36:16 GMT -8
Microsoft, as long as Microsoft dominates enterprise they will be dominant with the consumer. And if/when they become the dominant source of AI then they will become dangerous. But back when it was Windows vs Mac the only way to compete was through comparison. Ease of use and safety, which Apple won, in my view. So when it comes to AI, if Apple is going to play in that sandbox, then it will need to be the same type of comparison. Especially safety. But maybe not as few seemed to care about their safety with Google as long as Google continued to give access to their software away. But who knows how this story will play out. Just a thought. I agree. While Microsoft might not currently be a big competitor, they have the background size and history to become a competitor in the future in a current, or more likely future venture of Apple. I’ve been watching a few movies and reading a bit while recovering from a mile case of Covid these last few days. How to drive your competition crazy, braveheart, v is for vendetta, and even true grit all showed of outsmarting the competition, but that the true power came from making it a crusade, a mission. Many companies might manage that while an underdog, and I bet many at Tesla still feel they are on a world changing mission. But Microsoft, Amazon, google? Nvidia might, thru pushing hardware to push ai and other intensive things. Corporate culture can change over time. Apple is much different now than the underdog waving the pirate flag that they once were, but I’m sure that the corporate culture has employees there still feeling that they are pushing a mission based on making great and easy to use tech for their users.
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