aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Nov 30, 2023 3:45:09 GMT -8
AAPL's slightly green in the premarkets: 189.41 +$0.04 (+0.02%)
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Nov 30, 2023 7:18:13 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Nov 30, 2023 8:41:08 GMT -8
Gotta love his closing!
"The idea that Google being found guilty of anti-competitive behavior would result in a “hit to Apple earnings” is preposterous and fails on first inspection. The exact opposite is the likely outcome."
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Nov 30, 2023 10:07:20 GMT -8
Remember that tomorrow starts a new month and we're only a few weeks away from the start of a new year. Optimism all around.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Nov 30, 2023 12:57:53 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Nov 30, 2023 13:09:02 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 30, 2023 13:19:45 GMT -8
Remember that tomorrow starts a new month and we're only a few weeks away from the start of a new year. Optimism all around. Things have slowed down over the past few trading days, but during the last month AAPL is up about 10%. The recent low was just over a month ago, so that is cherry picking a bit. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPLFWIW, the 3 or 5 year chart shows a bit of the recent ups and downs. Depending on if you go Oct 1st to Oct 1st, or Dec 1st to now, the last 3 years have given annualized returns of 16.5% or 12.7%. Together they help frame a likely outlook going forward, of probably somewhere in the 12-15% annualized return when looking 3-5 years out, and likely a 90% chance of 10-20% annualized returns over 5 years even if there are some positive or negative surprises. For comparison, the S&P gave a 3 year annualized return of 8.6%/6.6% with those dates, and the Nasdaq 5.6%/3.2%. AAPL did great in comparison, and so the TINA mindset is there. Looking forward 3-5 years, with roughly the same economy wide wall of worry items, is there another investment that seems better? Likely within a year interest rates will start coming down, but Apple is in a whole different position than it was in ~2010, and the largest mega caps at that time were oil companies. MSFT might give an idea, but there would be much more of a reliance on corporate spending, that likely would still be coming around at that time, than the higher percent of consumer spending Apple currently has. But they pulled off 13.3% and 14.9% annualized returns over the 3 and 5 year timeframes. AAPL did 14.2% and 13.9% with those timeframes, so pretty close to the same even with the differences at the time. Anyways, just running some numbers, while trying to keep things in perspective. Some are expecting the indexes to gain 5% in December, while some are expecting the indexes to only gain 5% in all of 2024. Fisher pointed out in his books that sometimes, and even often, gains or losses for the market were outside what the masses predicted for the year. So there's that. And it makes sense a bit, that people are thinking now with a 12 month timeframe, but 6-9 month into next year they will still be looking out 12 months, and trying to jockey for position for then. So with reasonable likelihood, there's a chance that worse than expected things happen and the market goes lower than expected, or (hopefully with a higher probability) the economy is looking ok but enough green shoots are showing while interest rates start to change, and so people get a bit more bullish and push things up, with things hitting 10-15% while the "safe/cautious/reasonable" expectations they put out now only called for 5%. Like the IBM quote, no one ever got fired for the market beating their expectations. We'll see how things play out. But throwing out a slightly educated guess with a touch of probability, I'm feeling a 70% chance of the S&P returning at least 10%, and AAPL returning at least 12% for 2024, though for safety I'll take that anywhere within 13 months instead of just 12 or exactly at year end. And that's being cautious, whereas being bullish I could be looking at 20% for AAPL, or writing calls I might go even a little higher, since looking at 1 year instead of a 5 year average. Happy end of November everyone! And on to December, where all sorts of things can happen.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 30, 2023 16:13:47 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble with mail? i keep getting letters I sent in my in box. Also when I delete letters they just stay there and I have to reboot. My imac is getting worse with this?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 30, 2023 16:50:26 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble with mail? i keep getting letters I sent in my in box. Also when I delete letters they just stay there and I have to reboot. My imac is getting worse with this? I haven't had any problems, but am still running 13.5.2. Have you run any updates lately? If I ever have problems or strange things, the first thing to do is reboot. And make sure any backups are current.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Dec 1, 2023 2:59:05 GMT -8
4appl, any projections of future returns should always keep inflation in mind. Are my investments at least keeping up with the rate of inflation? Or maybe I should ask, is there any place that one can park their money in that will keep up with inflation and hopefully outpace it?
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Post by duckpins on Dec 1, 2023 9:48:00 GMT -8
Have you run any updates lately?
This started over a year ago. So even when I run the updates no change? First it was one email once in a while now it is getting to be multiple ones. I can't be the only person this happens to? How long did the wintel monopoly roar after microsoft reached the change for the sake of change stage? Apple is there with changes that don't improve just are different and often more cumbersome. You can see that Jobs' relentless focus on economy and elegance in software is slowly eroding to the microsoft like tech guys. The phone will dominate for a while. But like GenX and the shopping malls-nothing last forever.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 1, 2023 10:48:22 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble with mail? i keep getting letters I sent in my in box. Also when I delete letters they just stay there and I have to reboot. My imac is getting worse with this? ... This started over a year ago. So even when I run the updates no change? First it was one email once in a while now it is getting to be multiple ones. I can't be the only person this happens to? How long did the wintel monopoly roar after microsoft reached the change for the sake of change stage? Apple is there with changes that don't improve just are different and often more cumbersome. You can see that Jobs' relentless focus on economy and elegance in software is slowly eroding to the microsoft like tech guys. The phone will dominate for a while. But like GenX and the shopping malls-nothing last forever. Do you check email on multiple devices, or just this iMac? How many different email accounts do you have setup, and if you have multiple are they all acting strangely? When you last brought this up a month or two ago, people suggested rebuilding your mailbox or other similar options that you can do within Mail (It's the last choice in the Mailbox menu). Did you do this? There are also various settings you can put for POP and IMAP mail. You can see what you have set in the Accounts tab of Mail->Settings. If strange things are happening all the time, it's probably a setting. If it's happening only sometimes when you send a message, it could be just doing this when you can't reach the mail server, or something like that. I've been using Mail for around 10 years, after using entourage for too long. I have 11 accounts set up, a few that have been deactivated for a while, and at least one that migrated over from Apple (Searches sometimes pull up this old info, like coming across a message from Cricket who tested Mail). Maybe once every year or two I see it acting strange in some way (like not connecting to all accounts) and have to reboot it. And maybe twice I have had a filter I set up lose some or all of it's settings, so that constant ads from the likes of Home Depot start showing up in my inbox instead of being pushed to a folder I have set up for Ads. I finally moved thousands of old messages out of my inbox and into a folder, so now instead of something like 26,000 messages being in my combined inboxes, there's 7600. It was still working ok, but I thought maybe that was a contributing factor to occasional problems. Try a couple things like rebuilding your mailbox, and take a look at the settings. It's possible that something got messed up a year ago when you started having problems, either by you accidentally changing a setting or even a mouse dropping or something falling on the keyboard. Or maybe there was a bug in an update that changed a setting. But it sounds like the problems you are having aren't seen by others here that are using Apple's Mail, so I don't think it is a general thing that you should blame on Apple making changes just for the sake of change. FWIW while I no longer run most updates immediately, and tell my parents the same, my mom went ahead and updated her Mac's OS as soon as this year's new version came out. And then she hit an error with her iPhoto library. After what sounded like hours on the phone to support across 3 different calls, it turned out that iPhoto was using a small iPhoto library instead of her big main one, making it look like the update had lost most of her photos. Once that was corrected, all was well in the world again. It's hard to know exactly why that happened, and I didn't see it in person, but it could have been as simple as the main library being on an external device, a new one being created at some point since the external was disconnected, and then the update thinking the one on the startup disk was the main one. Or it could have been their cat walking across the keyboard, an action which has an amazing ability to do random things. Either way, it was a very worrisome problem that ended up having a simple solution, even though it took some time and stress to talk to the right person to manage to fix it. Hopefully your problem is easier to fix.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Dec 2, 2023 21:03:11 GMT -8
Hey DuckPins,
You might try deleting your Mail Plist files ~/Library/Containers/com.apple.Mail also ~/Library/Preferences/com.apple,mail-shared.plist. The files will regenerate as new the next time you open Mail, sometimes bad preferences or errors end up in the Plist Files by forcing them to re-start your starting out with "Fresh" Files so to speak.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Dec 3, 2023 6:04:07 GMT -8
Anyone else having trouble with mail? i keep getting letters I sent in my in box. Also when I delete letters they just stay there and I have to reboot. My imac is getting worse with this? Is this happening with all email messages you send? If not and just on a some messages, are they coming back 2 or 3 days later? If so, then visit the General Tab in Mail preferences (Command - comma) and uncheck 'Followup Suggestions'.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 3, 2023 18:36:26 GMT -8
I keep getting this message in Apple Mail. I have two accounts, one a local internet server, and the other an "exchange" server for the University of Toledo. The exchange server is probably 30 years old. I think the problem is with it. Moving Messages.pdf Any ideas would be appreciated ! PS Someone has said I should delete the account for the exchange server, and then create the account again, and all will be well. I am reluctant to do this at the moment.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2023 21:37:16 GMT -8
I keep getting this message in Apple Mail. I have two accounts, one a local internet server, and the other an "exchange" server for the University of Toledo. The exchange server is probably 30 years old. I think the problem is with it. Moving Messages.pdf Any ideas would be appreciated ! PS Someone has said I should delete the account for the exchange server, and then create the account again, and all will be well. I am reluctant to do this at the moment. I'd guess at those POP or IMAP settings, of keeping the messages on the server vs locally. There could be an extra complexity, like renaming an inbox or folder, and it not liking it. But that's just a wild guess. I worked with the OS X mail server for maybe 6 months, but that was over 20 years ago now. A google search might help. But if it's not a standard mail setting, then that "deleting the preferences" idea has been one of the standards for weirdness on any app, for all time. And in mail apps (was a thing with entourage too), rebuilding the mail database.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 179
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Post by aapl on Dec 4, 2023 5:04:14 GMT -8
I had this along with high cpu usage by Mail app recently. I solved it a couple weeks ago by rebuilding mailboxes. I just did the 'Inbox' ones first and you definitely want to backup your computer first.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 4, 2023 6:04:12 GMT -8
I will give it a try !
Thanks aapl ! !
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Post by duckpins on Dec 4, 2023 9:49:55 GMT -8
Thanks.
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