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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 8, 2023 14:00:06 GMT -8
6 We have been positive for Six weeks in a row.
Great week, Santa has joined the rally. Let's see if we can keep this up and hit an ATH close, and ATH intraday next week.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 8, 2023 17:50:18 GMT -8
Here's a little more info from the Morgan Stanley price boost to $220. Morgan Stanley boosts Apple price to $220 over AI and Vision ProI'm not so sure about their numbers though, for the Vision Pro. If 33% of all iPhone owners in general bought a Vision Pro in the first 12 months, and the price is more than 3x the ASP of the iPhone, that would have revenue for the Vision Pro matching the iPhone. Instead it says in 3 years it might almost match AirPods. Seems like there is an error there somewhere: Either way, those 33% and 74% figures seem excessively high, possibly by a factor of 10. I'm happy that people are interested, but those numbers don't seem correct. We might buy one, but most likely we will wait at least 6 months to see some of the uses...unless I come up with a good app idea and want to write something. That seems unlikely at the moment, but inspiration can hit at any time.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 9, 2023 6:20:58 GMT -8
Me too. I sure don't buy those numbers, at all. I have real reservations about the market for Vision Pro, except possibly for games.
And a bit unsteady about AI.
(I am getting tired of making telephone calls where the respondent is an attempt to mimic a person.)
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Dec 9, 2023 7:01:23 GMT -8
I guess to me the crucial issue is whether there will be an attractive “multiplayer” option. For one thing, that is the most effective way to introduce the product to new users/buyers, which will be crucial given the initial estimated price point. Even then, the jump from user to owner will be highly dependent on the expectations engendered by the early adopters, plus, of course, the in-store sampling experience.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 9, 2023 14:15:22 GMT -8
6We have been positive for Six weeks in a row. Great week, Santa has joined the rally. Let's see if we can keep this up and hit an ATH close, and ATH intraday next week. Being positive for 6 weeks in a row is *excellent*...and, in those 6 weeks, we're up 15.1% of our 01/03/22 ATH(92.4% to 107.5%)...more % gain than any of the other 6 stocks. MSFT is second with a 13.1% increase over the last 6 weeks.
I don't think many people recognize how well AAPL is doing as they make their way back from the massive share price drop in 2022. For example, when a commenter on Seeking Alpha stated he planned to trim his AAPL, I responded, "**Yep, AAPL's up 45.8% this year. Time to trim. /s"
A different person responded to my comment with: ======= "Is it absolute or relative that one cares about? AAPL is the worst performing out of the magnificent 7 currently this year. Albeit not by much as AAPL, GOOG and MSFT all in the 45 to 50 range? AMZN,TESLA in the 90% range and META and NVDA 160+. Does AAPL have the best prospects over the next 12 months compared to the other 6?" ======= IOW, the person was emphasizing that AAPL wasn't up as much as some of the others like AMZN and TSLA. ======= I replied, "Myself and others on Seeking Alpha have been invested in AAPL for years...in some cases for decades. AAPL is up 48.9% so far this year...48.9%.
If that makes AAPL "the worst performing out of the magnificent 7" I'm not bothered by that at all.
-- "...GOOG and MSFT all in the 45 to 50 range? AMZN,TESLA in the 90% range and META and NVDA 160+" -- **I don't follow NVDA so I can't speak to that stock. But for the others I can tell you that AAPL and MSFT are the *only* ones of the 7 that have set a new ATH set this year...the rest have an ATH that was set in 2022 or even late in 2021.
Stock % of 2021/2022 ATH MSFT—-110.5%—11/19/21 AAPL—-105.1%—01/03/22 GOOG—-85.5%—11/18/21 META—-85.0%—09/07/21 AMZN—-79.0%—07/08/21 NFLX—-67.3%—11/17/21 TSLA—-58.3%—11/04/21
After looking at this list, if you still think AMZN and TSLA are doing *better* than AAPL because they may be up "in the 90% range" this year, you and I have completely different ideas about how to gauge a stock's progress and possible future success. ======= When that commenter replied to that without mentioning the % of previous ATH's which have been reached by the 7 stocks, my final comment was: ======= But you *completely* failed to address my point. How can AAPL be the "the worst performing out of the magnificent 7" if the other stocks have still not even reached, much less exceeded, their ATH from almost 2 years ago...meanwhile, both AAPL and MSFT have set *new* ATH's this year?
Are you of the viewpoint that what happens in a particular year is more important than what happens over a period of years? Can you appreciate that setting a new ATH, while other stocks still have an ATH from almost two years ago, is much better than what happened *this* year? ======= Sorry to belabor the point and go on and on, but I don't think some folks are considering how really well AAPL is doing this year. The fact that both AAPL and MSFT have set new ATH's this year, and that many of the others still have ATH's from 2 years ago, is significant.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 9, 2023 14:50:25 GMT -8
Sorry to belabor the point and go on and on, but I don't think some folks are considering how really well AAPL is doing this year. The fact that both AAPL and MSFT have set new ATH's this year, and that many of the others still have ATH's from 2 years ago, is significant. It does vary based on what you look at. Lately you have mostly compared to the past ATH, somewhere around 2 years ago. And I can see that, even if you're thinking about company value and so with Apple by looking at share price you aren't taking into account the true market cap since Apple has been buying back shares. I could see also wanting to look at how AAPL performed compared to the others over some other period, like 5 years or even 10 years. An ATH might be more inflated with certain stocks than others, but a longer term time chunk would likely not pick out a price at the absolute top, or absolute bottom. On that note, I just upgraded the OS on my Mac and iPhone this week. With the stock app on iOS 17.1.2 (presumably with iOS 17) they added a cool feature that makes that easy. If you click on a stock, by default you see the 1 day chart, along with the 1 day gain (or loss). But click on a different timeframe, like 5 day, and now not only do you see that longer term chart, but also the longer term change in the stock. 5Y? Bam! 10Y? Bam! AAPL hasn't outperformed all for all timeframes, but who cares! Still, it's a quick and nearly effortless way to compare, instead of doing rough ballpark estimates in your head, or making charts with multiple symbols in some other viewer. We each have different things we care about. While I like your ATH comparison, I could see comparing what happened in the last X months (someone thinking "I had 10k to invest 6 months ago. What did best."), or see a longer term view like "how did things do in the past 5 or 10 years". At the same time, I always find the YTD chart timeframe strange, as it just doesn't tell me anything that I really care about, while also being much different timeframes a month into the year vs 11 months in. I'm sure someone cares about it for some reason. But I just don't get it....even if the new iOS can quickly give stats on that too.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Dec 9, 2023 17:30:24 GMT -8
I'm in Lucky's camp on this one (and most others too ). If I log into my Schwab account and hit Portfolio Performance on my SEP IRA which holds only AAPL, it spits out a report showing the rate of annualized return from 1/1/17 to 12/8/23. Amazingly, AAPL 33.07% S&P 12.95% Dow 11.59% Naz 15.16% I guess I can live with that...
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 9, 2023 18:05:39 GMT -8
I'm not so sure about all of these "predictor" stats...it starts to seem a bit more like data mining. But if you need a good reason for positiveness for next year, look at this article: An 'extremely rare' stock market signal with a 100% accuracy rate is flashing and points to record highs in 2024There's a few more positive predictors stated in there. But in general, the S&P and most companies have been down for 2 years, not seeing a new ATH, so if the market bumps up and sets one then things seem likely to keep going up. Sounds good. As Lucky pointed out, some are nearing or setting new ATH's before others.
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