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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 18, 2023 7:22:26 GMT -8
Hi All, A little fun here. Let's see where we think AAPL will end the Calendar Year 2024. All predictions must be in by the end of Dec 31, 2023. Winner gets bragging rights for the month of Jan 2025. And here are the final predictions: Member | Guess | macster | $215.00 | mark | $216.00 | 4aapl | $224.00 | benoir | $225.00 | Ted | $228.50 | nwjade | $230 | elmar | $240.00 | hrace | 242.00 | ems | $242.11 | aapl | $246.00 | chinacat | $249.00 | CdnPhoto | $270.00 |
There are some interesting sets of groupings. I guess I'm the optimist in this group.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 18, 2023 7:31:11 GMT -8
I'll start it off.
AAPL at $270 by the end of the Calendar Year 2024
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 18, 2023 9:21:49 GMT -8
Just like with bullish options, I'd prefer to be conservative and then be pleasantly surprised if things go even better.
It seems like there is at least an 80% chance of the stock gaining at least 10% ($214), and even a 70% chance of at least 12%.
But my guess will be where I think there's at least a 50% chance of hitting, up 15%. And that is $224 from today's $195.
Sounds boring, but up about $30 points would still be nice, even if the bullish side of me wants to guess even higher.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Dec 18, 2023 14:59:33 GMT -8
My WAG ... we're going to pull back to 188 or so at EOY 23. Then 15% gain for 24 brings us to about 216 or so.
Oh, and dividend will go up to 25 cents a quarter. Maybe 26 cents if they're thinking about a 2:1 split later in the year.
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benoir
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Posts: 1,319
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Post by benoir on Dec 18, 2023 19:59:58 GMT -8
$225. <-- boring like 4aapl. $6.5 EPS - I don't see PE breaking north of 35
I want what CdnPhoto is smoking'... $270 would be happy days.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,654
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 18, 2023 21:20:35 GMT -8
$225. <-- boring like 4aapl. $6.5 EPS - I don't see PE breaking north of 35 I want what CdnPhoto is smoking'... $270 would be happy days. The link Chinacat posted tonight had Ives predicting $260 and a $4T market cap in 2024: It takes a bit of growth, and the bullish side of me expects some of that, along with potentially a rise in the P/E while switching positively out of a no-growth timeframe while also seeing the Fed ease off on interest rates. And then there's the potential of the Vision Pro doing better than expected, or some other thing like AI or car related getting investors all fired up. But what probability would you put on that, of most things going right? I expect AAPL will make it there, to $260/$270. It's just a matter of timing. For now I'll plan on the easier glide path for 2024, while remaining cautiously optimistic. I'm trying to be realistic and not too overly optimistic, remembering that while it should continue to beat the S&P and Nasdaq over the long term, the average annualized rates just aren't likely to be what they were a decade or two ago. But as Fisher said, the market is The Great Humiliator. Maybe AAPL will take off in 2024, with or without the whole market, and prove my guess wrong.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Dec 19, 2023 7:46:03 GMT -8
I want what CdnPhoto is smoking'... $270 would be happy days. By the way, the question was about the price on 12/31/2024. That doesn't mean that the stock can't hit $250 (or $150) sometime between now and then.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 19, 2023 7:54:34 GMT -8
$225. <-- boring like 4aapl. $6.5 EPS - I don't see PE breaking north of 35 I want what CdnPhoto is smoking'... $270 would be happy days. My thoughts are that AAPL will close 2023 at or near the $200 mark. Historically, the annualized gains averaged out over 5 or 10 years is 25%. (I did this by getting the closing prices for AAPL from Yahoo for every year, calculating the gains, then looking at a 5 or 10 year annualized gain) So, a 35% gain for the coming year after a negative in 2022 didn't feel that far off.
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aapl
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Posts: 185
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Post by aapl on Dec 20, 2023 10:28:14 GMT -8
$246 is my guess. 198 + 24%
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Post by elmar on Dec 21, 2023 8:55:43 GMT -8
My guess is $240 and I would be very confident with this
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Post by nwjade on Dec 22, 2023 18:48:32 GMT -8
My guess is a conservative $230... However if the Vision Pro takes off and/or a successful Apple AI App Store emerges aapl could really surprise to the upside.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on Dec 23, 2023 8:09:13 GMT -8
$249
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Post by hrace on Dec 27, 2023 11:37:36 GMT -8
$242. 25% up from here ($193 today).
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 27, 2023 12:07:49 GMT -8
Okay, I'm going with $228.50 and not a penny more. I'll take my winnings via Venmo. 💸💰
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Post by macster on Dec 29, 2023 6:34:29 GMT -8
$215…. like 23 the price dipped to around $170. Being a grinch I expect the same in 24 but a higher low.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 29, 2023 7:38:45 GMT -8
$215…. like 23 the price dipped to around $170. Being a grinch I expect the same in 24 but a higher low. We started the year at 129.93, and have gained about 49% for the year. the $215 price factors in a 11% gain for the year.
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Post by macster on Dec 29, 2023 8:46:11 GMT -8
$215…. like 23 the price dipped to around $170. Being a grinch I expect the same in 24 but a higher low. We started the year at 129.93, and have gained about 49% for the year. the $215 price factors in a 11% gain for the year. Ok yeah thanks. Let me reword it. Approximately $170 was the low after the previous all time high around August. I’m going for a higher low and a aprox 10% gain from the current price. Hope i’m wrong.😑
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on Dec 29, 2023 11:49:04 GMT -8
$242.11. Seems like a good number and has some interesting historical significance to me.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 29, 2023 11:51:16 GMT -8
$242. 25% up from here ($193 today). LOL, ems only gave you 11¢ of wiggle room on the upside there.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 1, 2024 6:58:36 GMT -8
Updated original post. Let's see how everyone does.
I don't think anyone will complain if I win this one.
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benoir
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Posts: 1,319
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Post by benoir on Jan 1, 2024 15:14:18 GMT -8
Hi All, A little fun here. Let's see where we think AAPL will end the Calendar Year 2024. All predictions must be in by the end of Dec 31, 2023. Winner gets bragging rights for the month of Jan 2025. And here are the final predictions: Member | Guess | macster | $215.00 | mark | $216.00 | 4aapl | $224.00 | benoir | $225.00 | Ted | $228.50 | nwjade | $230 | elmar | $240.00 | hrace | 242.00 | ems | $242.11 | aapl | $246.00 | chinacat | $249.00 | CdnPhoto | $270.00 |
There are some interesting sets of groupings. I guess I'm the optimist in this group. The average guess is $236. I'll take that... and anything north of that!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,654
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 1, 2024 23:50:36 GMT -8
Hi All, A little fun here. Let's see where we think AAPL will end the Calendar Year 2024. All predictions must be in by the end of Dec 31, 2023. Winner gets bragging rights for the month of Jan 2025. And here are the final predictions: Member | Guess | macster | $215.00 | mark | $216.00 | 4aapl | $224.00 | benoir | $225.00 | Ted | $228.50 | nwjade | $230 | elmar | $240.00 | hrace | 242.00 | ems | $242.11 | aapl | $246.00 | chinacat | $249.00 | CdnPhoto | $270.00 |
There are some interesting sets of groupings. I guess I'm the optimist in this group. The average guess is $236. I'll take that... and anything north of that! Interestingly the median is really close to that, at 235. Sometimes the mean and median vary a bit. We’ll see. It seems unlikely that aapl and the market will have another blow out year, but often it’s when people don’t expect it that the market surprises. And with last year generally canceling out the losses from the year before, another solidly positive year would likely still make for an average or sub-average rate when looking at the overall 3 year annualized figures.
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