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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 26, 2013 2:23:00 GMT -8
It's Friday...and the PIN begins. Let's see what GDP brings us this morning but doubtful it will be the pesticide this fruit company needs to be healthy once again in the eyes of investors. Like most things in life, time and patience will get us there.
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Post by wheeles on Apr 26, 2013 2:36:49 GMT -8
It's Friday...and the PIN begins. Let's see what GDP brings us this morning but doubtful it will be the pesticide this fruit company needs to be healthy once again in the eyes of investors. Like most things in life, time and patience will get us there. Interesting notion of linking pesticides to health. You don't work for Monsanto, do you?  |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 26, 2013 2:47:11 GMT -8
It's Friday...and the PIN begins. Let's see what GDP brings us this morning but doubtful it will be the pesticide this fruit company needs to be healthy once again in the eyes of investors. Like most things in life, time and patience will get us there. Interesting notion of linking pesticides to health. You don't work for Monsanto, do you? No, Whole Foods .... ;D (just kidding) I could have said, "fresh compost tea spray" but it would not have had the same delivery. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 26, 2013 4:38:53 GMT -8
LOL, Phoebes!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 26, 2013 4:42:47 GMT -8
WAG: AAPL is back in the Fall 2011 trading range until proven otherwise.
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Post by wheeles on Apr 26, 2013 4:46:34 GMT -8
Interesting notion of linking pesticides to health. You don't work for Monsanto, do you? No, Whole Foods .... ;D (just kidding) I could have said, "fresh compost tea spray" but it would not have had the same delivery. It's a shame that the usual dollops of manure from analysts don't seem to encourage much growth in price. |
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Post by jmolloy on Apr 26, 2013 4:47:09 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 26, 2013 4:51:07 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 26, 2013 5:18:29 GMT -8
Paging Mercel..... The GM miss begins to make much more sense...from Horace... www.asymco.com/"These service policy changes were made around April 1st and were in response to editorials in the People’s Daily, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party. Though seen as a PR issue, their impact goes beyond the company’s image. Changes in warranty policy implies setting aside some of the revenues as an expense, increasing the cost of sales and reducing margins. The 10Q says that $190 million of the additional warranty set-aside was for prior quarters and that $224 million was for the March quarter. If we were to subtract the $190 million from the cost of sales the gross margin would increase from 37.50% to 37.93% and if we subtract the full $414 million the gross margin would increase to 38.44%. The calculations are shown in the following table:" |
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Post by rob_london on Apr 26, 2013 5:23:40 GMT -8
Paging Mercel..... The GM miss begins to make much more sense...from Horace... www.asymco.com/These service policy changes were made around April 1st and were in response to editorials in the People’s Daily, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party. Though seen as a PR issue, their impact goes beyond the company’s image. Changes in warranty policy implies setting aside some of the revenues as an expense, increasing the cost of sales and reducing margins. The 10Q says that $190 million of the additional warranty set-aside was for prior quarters and that $224 million was for the March quarter. If we were to subtract the $190 million from the cost of sales the gross margin would increase from 37.50% to 37.93% and if we subtract the full $414 million the gross margin would increase to 38.44%. The calculations are shown in the following table: Analysts at Wells Fargo and UBS have also commented on the warranties: blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/04/25/aapl-ubs-reads-10-k-for-upside-in-one-time-items/?mod=BOL_hpp_blog_tt |
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Post by Big Al on Apr 26, 2013 5:29:38 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Apr 26, 2013 5:53:59 GMT -8
Paging Mercel..... The GM miss begins to make much more sense...from Horace... www.asymco.com/"These service policy changes were made around April 1st and were in response to editorials in the People’s Daily, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party. Though seen as a PR issue, their impact goes beyond the company’s image. Changes in warranty policy implies setting aside some of the revenues as an expense, increasing the cost of sales and reducing margins. The 10Q says that $190 million of the additional warranty set-aside was for prior quarters and that $224 million was for the March quarter. If we were to subtract the $190 million from the cost of sales the gross margin would increase from 37.50% to 37.93% and if we subtract the full $414 million the gross margin would increase to 38.44%. The calculations are shown in the following table:" Horace Dediu does remarkable analysis. |
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Post by podboy on Apr 26, 2013 5:59:05 GMT -8
[/quote]Horace Dediu does remarkable analysis.[/quote] +1. Bullish action so far, wasn't really expecting this.  |
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Post by tuffett on Apr 26, 2013 5:59:29 GMT -8
^ yes. Glad we have two of his equals here  |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 6:07:13 GMT -8
417 then 437 for 61.8% retrace levels.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 6:10:19 GMT -8
I've never done this before.
Yesterday I couldn't resist buying with May Wk1 $390 Call, with the intent to make it a $390/$395 Call Spread.
Today I couldn't resist selling the $395 at $18.71, constructing a Deep In the money Call Spread at $1.04.
But then when I checked my handiwork, I saw that my $5.00 Spread was trading $5.20 - $5.95. So I placed an order to sell them at $5.20, mind you these are $5.00 Spreads. My order filled immediately.
It's almost as though the AAPL god is trying to atone for the way I've been treated since last September.
I'll take it.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 26, 2013 6:14:49 GMT -8
Paging Mercel..... The GM miss begins to make much more sense...from Horace... www.asymco.com/These service policy changes were made around April 1st and were in response to editorials in the People’s Daily, the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party. Though seen as a PR issue, their impact goes beyond the company’s image. Changes in warranty policy implies setting aside some of the revenues as an expense, increasing the cost of sales and reducing margins. The 10Q says that $190 million of the additional warranty set-aside was for prior quarters and that $224 million was for the March quarter. If we were to subtract the $190 million from the cost of sales the gross margin would increase from 37.50% to 37.93% and if we subtract the full $414 million the gross margin would increase to 38.44%. The calculations are shown in the following table: Analysts at Wells Fargo and UBS have also commented on the warranties: blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/04/25/aapl-ubs-reads-10-k-for-upside-in-one-time-items/?mod=BOL_hpp_blog_tt |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 26, 2013 6:38:45 GMT -8
well played gregg thats a lovely gain for 1 day lately any time i attempt to leg into spreads, it goes the wrong way. |
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Post by mace on Apr 26, 2013 6:48:32 GMT -8
Another failure at $415  . Three times mean jinx? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 7:01:28 GMT -8
Another failure at $415 . Three times mean jinx? I'm happy with anything over $410 today -- wrecking the option pin is positive |
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Post by The Big Toe on Apr 26, 2013 7:07:36 GMT -8
I wish I shorted AMZN yesterday.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 7:11:15 GMT -8
I wish I shorted AMZN yesterday. One doesn't have to short AMZN to enjoy today's action on this stock. Maybe we'll even seen some rotation into AAPL... |
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Post by moltenfire on Apr 26, 2013 7:28:13 GMT -8
The action for the last two days have been remarkably stable. Maybe we'll even close above 420 today?
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Post by bud777 on Apr 26, 2013 7:43:42 GMT -8
One of the more frustrating things about having money at risk in the market for me it that I can do nothing to affect the value. I am a stick being carried along in the current of a turbulent stream, with the caveat that I can decide when to get in or get out. Helplessness is not my natural state, I struggle to find a way to control or at least influence my fate. I know others feel this too, hence the never ending posts on how Apple should manage the cash, develop a bigger, smaller, iPhone. etc.
One of the major factors ( I believe) affecting the stock is the constant FUD. While this may be the result of a well funded campaign by Samsung, it may also be just the result of click whores reweaving memes to collect their nickel a hit. "Apple can no longer innovate", "Law of large numbers", you know the stories all to well. Since this seems to be hurting the stock, and the "press" seems to have a lack of creativity, I suggest that we offer a new meme that they can use. i have no doubt that any scum sucking dog who writes this FUD (you know who you are) reads this board for ideas. The lack of originality, research, or even logic indicates that any plausible theory will be plagiarized, so this may actually work. So here is my suggestion for a new meme:
"Wall street saves Apple"
After months of ignoring the guidance of Wall Street and the technical press, Apple management capitulated and changed course to become more of a model corporate citizen. By following the suggestions of (fill in your favorite shills), Apple has agreed to distribute more cash and buy back stock. No longer the arrogant start up, Apple has recognized the wisdom of the financial press and fallen in line with other tech giants like Amazon and Google. As a result the stock has reversed its fall and seems to be headed for a new all time high"
I am gagging trying to write this, but you get the idea.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 7:45:24 GMT -8
The action for the last two days have been remarkably stable. Maybe we'll even close above 420 today? That would be aggressive in my book. It would be nice, but would also induce quick profit taking. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 8:28:34 GMT -8
To Amazon:  |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 8:33:35 GMT -8
Range bound for almost four months now. Will break out soon. I'm guessing higher. And I really only say that because of how annoying AMZN is. Could use the daily SMA100 as a springboard. |
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Post by capablanca on Apr 26, 2013 8:39:22 GMT -8
the 8-K filed yesterday covers China Thank you. I had missed this. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 8:43:42 GMT -8
One of the more frustrating things about having money at risk in the market for me it that I can do nothing to affect the value. I am a stick being carried along in the current of a turbulent stream, with the caveat that I can decide when to get in or get out. Helplessness is not my natural state, I struggle to find a way to control or at least influence my fate. I know others feel this too, hence the never ending posts on how Apple should manage the cash, develop a bigger, smaller, iPhone. etc. One of the major factors ( I believe) affecting the stock is the constant FUD. While this may be the result of a well funded campaign by Samsung, it may also be just the result of click whores reweaving memes to collect their nickel a hit. "Apple can no longer innovate", "Law of large numbers", you know the stories all to well. Since this seems to be hurting the stock, and the "press" seems to have a lack of creativity, I suggest that we offer a new meme that they can use. i have no doubt that any scum sucking dog who writes this FUD (you know who you are) reads this board for ideas. The lack of originality, research, or even logic indicates that any plausible theory will be plagiarized, so this may actually work. So here is my suggestion for a new meme: "Wall street saves Apple" After months of ignoring the guidance of Wall Street and the technical press, Apple management capitulated and changed course to become more of a model corporate citizen. By following the suggestions of (fill in your favorite shills), Apple has agreed to distribute more cash and buy back stock. No longer the arrogant start up, Apple has recognized the wisdom of the financial press and fallen in line with other tech giants like Amazon and Google. As a result the stock has reversed its fall and seems to be headed for a new all time high" I am gagging trying to write this, but you get the idea. I get a feed from Seeking Alpha every day. Lately i've been getting about a dozen. I rarely read beyond the initial summary. 99% of is rehash of other misinformed "reporting", On another note: Tuesday's conference call makes me believe that the sell off from $700 wasn't a conspiracy at all, it was good old fashioned research. None of the knowledgeable (I wasn't one of them) believed Apple's out sized GM% was sustainable, yet we acted (buying AAPL up) as though it were. We had been bemoaning the lack of respect Apple's cash and earnings was getting from the market, and rejoiced when it looked like we were finally getting it. My take on AAPL (in hindsight) is that WS established fair value based on HISTORIC SUSTAINABLE GM%. If you do that earnings drop, but PE shoots upward. At the same time WS (and here I'm talking the big houses) gave Apple's guidance the respect it deserved (starting with July guidance). The run to $700 was fueled by investors such as myself, that did not see the changes happening under the hood. Institutional ownership began to decline during the June quarter, well ahead of the September crest. When AAPL stalled for 3 days at ~$700 the institutions decided not to wait any longer, and began selling off. Initially, I think they were looking for a 10% "correction", which would have taken AAPL down to ~$630. PC Ratio bottomed here and AAPL seemed to stabilize. But the ferocity of the sell off (for no apparent reason) shook the confidence of others and the pile on began. Think about this: institutional ownership dropped less than 7%, even though AAPL dropped >40%. Institutional valuation had AAPL higher than it was trading, but the buyers, in that environment, felt they could wait. The lack of buyers, as AAPL continued its disintegration, only added to the fear factor among sellers. Bottom line is that AAPL dropped >40%, but institutional ownership only declined ~7%. They recognize how much AAPL is undervalued, but aren't in a hurry to buy, instead waiting until just before the picture clears enough for retail traders to see it. They'll be able to swoop in at that time for not much more than it would cost now, and in the meantime have their money working productively elsewhere. To me, this suggests that significant positive money flows won't happen until late June/early July. It also suggests, in light of TC's comprehensive comments during the conference call, that the institutional will accumulate during dips between now and then, setting a floor under AAPL. FUD is only effective if it is believed. In the fear based environment of the past 7+ months it worked very well, on those not as well informed as the big boys. I have my doubts that it will be as effective going forward, because now the big boys are confident in Apple's future, and no matter the FUD, they will be accumulating. |
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Post by greyfox15 on Apr 26, 2013 9:11:47 GMT -8
Hypothetical early Apr. BOD meeting:
PO-as all know, we're in trouble for the this quarter and at least the next,
TC-Agreed, so what should we do about it.
PO-Tell the truth for March 1/4, and we'll low ball the estimates for June.
Al- We're gonna get hammered if that's all we say and we've been hammered a ton already.
PO- Getting killed already with no announcement on the div & buy back.
TC- Hate to commit any more $'s to same. We only have 135 B.,
Al- Better give the stockholders some give back and relief. $10 div and 10B buy back isn't doing it.
TC- Gotta do something, Sam & FUD is killing us one way and the outrageous projections of some advocates may even be worse.
PO- Did you see on one board a Sponge and Greg Thurman figures. Off the wall.
TC- Gotta do something.
Al- As the politician, how about a political solution. Forecast low for the next 2 Q's, raise the div and about a 50 B. buy back.
PO- That sort of solutions Al, and you wudda be pres.
TC- GO!
OK all you forecasters. You knew the earnings weren't good, even going forward. That the past GM was unreachable. That the next few 1/4's aren't much better, the main hope new products, now the earlier Fall. Yet all this nonsense when the solution was really the only way to go.
Think about that. Easy in hindsight.
What BOD decided and aapl announced was really was the only way to go.
Or is this the fantasy projection board?
Greyfox
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. Three times mean jinx?
