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Post by podboy on Apr 26, 2013 9:56:58 GMT -8
Another failure at $415  . Three times mean jinx?  |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 9:59:33 GMT -8
WAG: let's see how AAPL resolves before making WAGs. ;D Oh look mace! topping or breaking through 415 resistance? Action suggests the latter. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 10:02:40 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 10:04:12 GMT -8
Mace, what's the significance of 415? The high on Wednesday?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 10:07:39 GMT -8
Range bound for almost four months now. Will break out soon. I'm guessing higher. And I really only say that because of how annoying AMZN is. Could use the daily SMA100 as a springboard. If AMZN goes higher, I'm leaving the stock market permanently once I see an exit in AAPL. If TA is the foundation for its rise (as you're suggesting), then the market is more F'd up than I realized. |
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Post by mace on Apr 26, 2013 10:10:16 GMT -8
Mace, what's the significance of 415? The high on Wednesday? Refer to EW thread, I think is similar to your $417. Is the price that make it likely for AAPL to challenge $438/50-day SMA/EMA. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 10:14:37 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 10:14:38 GMT -8
Mace, what's the significance of 415? The high on Wednesday? Refer to EW thread, I think is similar to your $417. Is the price that make it likely for AAPL to challenge $438/50-day SMA/EMA. Additional note, if that happens next week, price will come above the daily and weekly log scale downtrend line. First step is to break and close above, next is to hold on a retest. Then we can start considering the bottom being in. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 10:18:17 GMT -8
Mace, what's the significance of 415? The high on Wednesday? Refer to EW thread, I think is similar to your $417. Is the price that make it likely for AAPL to challenge $438/50-day SMA/EMA. So we have two groups of sellers today before the close, right? 1. Option writers at $415 and below 2. Those who follow TA and are short and seek to close AAPL below the $415 price, understanding the "significance" of this. (Of course, the same could be true of the bulls who want it to close over $415). |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 10:57:36 GMT -8
This is monster relative strength though.
I don't think 415 was a pin target this week, was it? Well all the more bullish at 415.01. And in any case, AAPL is at least breaking over 415 without fierce rejection, and 18M volume so far.
Still fragile, but constructive IMHO on a micro basis,
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 26, 2013 11:12:10 GMT -8
I'm sure Apple is smartly buying the shares in good doses whenever the stock is lagging and giving it a boost to either hold up or rise. Also, the number of buyers to sellers ratio (as I see it in my Level II Nasdaq BookViewer) has almost doubled in these 3 days after earnings. Great sign! Feels like the gradual rise will continue next week, with Apple's continued support, of course  |
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 26, 2013 11:16:11 GMT -8
I am having trouble navigating the site - is this just me or anyone else have a problem?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 11:16:53 GMT -8
This is monster relative strength though. I don't think 415 was a pin target this week, was it? Well all the more bullish at 415.01. And in any case, AAPL is at least breaking over 415 without fierce rejection, and 18M volume so far. Still fragile, but constructive IMHO on a micro basis, No, it wasn't. I'm impressed that the $410 and $415 contracts could be taken out. I hope Apple is participating, crushing the call writers. Sending a message Apple? We can hope. |
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Post by moltenfire on Apr 26, 2013 11:19:17 GMT -8
So, like I said this morning, let's close at $420.01 today  EDIT: okay, so maybe not |
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2013 11:25:18 GMT -8
Anyone think AAPL is benefitting from the AMZN results?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 11:25:27 GMT -8
This is good, but be careful here. Think of how many suckers' rallies we've already had.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 26, 2013 11:28:15 GMT -8
AAPL 4-HOUR CHART: Key Levels I'm Watching (ONE way to measure composure and commitment)  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 11:47:53 GMT -8
This is good, but be careful here. Think of how many suckers' rallies we've already had. No worries. I'm long and strong (sort of). Not trading this at all. I really like this strength in the face of 26K contracts at $410 and $415. There are another 14k contracts at $420 but don't expect THAT to get slaughtered. I'm very encouraged if Apple is sending a message to the weekly options players -- don't F with us. Maybe AAPL will be less constrained by option pin behavior. It's WAY past due. |
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Post by moltenfire on Apr 26, 2013 11:50:53 GMT -8
Mercel: agreed re the pinning. I actually sold some $420 covered calls expiring next week, so we'll see if we hold $420 next Fri. If I get called away I'll just buy it back the following Monday.
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Post by mace on Apr 26, 2013 12:04:32 GMT -8
Mercel,
Please refer to yesterday's post (for your convenience, pasted below this message.
Please send me an iPad mini as a price. Read your PM for my address.
Thanks.
Yesterday at 2:40pm, mace wrote:
So quiet for a weekly max pain Thursday. Max pain is $410, so really really really want AAPL to close above $410 tomorrow. Above $415 would be ecstatic.
I don't see it happening from open interest. Next week looks better for $415+
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 12:12:58 GMT -8
Mercel, Please refer to yesterday's post (for your convenience, pasted below this message. Please send me an iPad mini as a price. Read your PM for my address. Thanks. Yesterday at 2:40pm, mace wrote: So quiet for a weekly max pain Thursday. Max pain is $410, so really really really want AAPL to close above $410 tomorrow. Above $415 would be ecstatic. I don't see it happening from open interest. Next week looks better for $415+ THAT's why I am encouraged. 26 THOUSAND contracts at $410 and $415 strikes. That's worth a Lovey "Wheeeeeee." See Mav for your iPad -- he covers all my unplaced bets. ;D |
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 26, 2013 12:20:09 GMT -8
Now that everyone is in a good mood...
...would any of you be willing to educate me about the mechanics of stock buybacks?
. Does the company just buy them on the open market, or is there a special process?
. If the former, how does the SEC(?) know when the shares are retired, so that the outstanding share count is reduced?
. If so, is there a period where they can just resell them on the open market, or must they be "reissued?"
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 26, 2013 12:37:48 GMT -8
Now that everyone is in a good mood... ...would any of you be willing to educate me about the mechanics of stock buybacks? . Does the company just buy them on the open market, or is there a special process? . If the former, how does the SEC(?) know when the shares are retired, so that the outstanding share count is reduced? . If so, is there a period where they can just resell them on the open market, or must they be "reissued?" Start here....... onswipe.investopedia.com/investopedia/#!/entry/a-breakdown-of-stock-buybacks,5102c39bd7fc7b5670046d9c |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 12:55:29 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 13:01:19 GMT -8
Bite me Mercel. ;D. CY(O)A. So quiet...until the pin snapped in half. C'mon get happy, mace! Decent close. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 13:07:01 GMT -8
27M volume...decent as well.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 13:16:56 GMT -8
Look at that IV crush today! Good to see it happen on an up day though.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2013 13:28:30 GMT -8
To Amazon:  Holy crap - has Wall Street finally given up on Amazon!?! |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 13:46:12 GMT -8
Well remember, IV crushes also happen when a stock is rebounding (sometimes). Note the SPX and VIX inverse-ish relationship. "Predictable" price action that's gradual, linear, "trending" may sometimes lower IV whichever direction it is.
As for AMZN, I'm waiting to see what happens around 253. I should also do a little reading this weekend into how earnings really were.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 13:49:39 GMT -8
This is good, but be careful here. Think of how many suckers' rallies we've already had. This is good, but anything can change at any moment? That sounds about right. The trend is STILL DOWN after all. iPad, IIRC, we _should_ be out of that "master downtrend line"? |
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. Three times mean jinx?
