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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 19, 2024 13:31:37 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,111
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2024 6:37:08 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,111
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2024 9:36:13 GMT -8
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 184
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Post by aapl on Jan 20, 2024 9:58:32 GMT -8
You will if OnlyFans can get their app past app store review.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 20, 2024 15:06:04 GMT -8
Here I am again with a table showing the current share price of 7 stocks measured against their ATH's...for some, like AAPL, MSFT and now META, it's a *previous* ATH. I'm sorry, but I can't quite get over the fact that so many folks talk about how poorly AAPL did in 2023(+48.2%) compared to GOOG(+58.8%), (AMZN +80.9%), NFLX(+90.1%), META(+194.9%) or even TSLA(+101.7). The 2023 gains in those stocks don't relate to the stock's ATH and I think it's meaningful that 2 of the 7 stocks(AAPL and MSFT) set new ATH's several times during 2023 while 5 of the 7 stocks had ATH's that were over 2 years old...set in 2021. META has now joined AAPL and MSFT by setting a new ATH and GOOG is very close to doing so as well. The MSFT share price is currently doing much better than AAPL...but AAPL shareholders can appreciate that AAPL has been slowly correcting for the last 9 market days...and since it was $181.18 on 01/05/24, it's up $10(5.7%).
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,648
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2024 15:23:41 GMT -8
Thanks for the data Lucky!
Each person looks at different things. I'm not really looking for other single companies to invest in right now, but if I was and was continuing to think somewhat longer term, I'd probably be curious about the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year (possibly also the 10 year) annualized return. I'd also look at the current P/E, the 12 month trailing earnings growth, and the 12 month earnings expectations from analysts (I like the P/E, but you kinda need these other things to help quantify it).
I don't expect you to add these. But like how the shorter term investor might only care about the momentum in the last year and not how it did overall, the longer term investor probably wants to get rid of some of the middle data, and instead think more about that 5 year trend.
Luckily the Stock app now makes that 5 year overall (not annualized) number easy to get. Looks like AAPL as done significantly better than Goog, AMZN, META and MSFT over that timeframe, though NVDA and TSLA have significantly beat AAPL's 5 year +386% figure.
It's hard to know what the future holds, but I'm still thinking for the next 5 years AAPL should beat the Nasdaq and S&P. Just as it has in the past.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 20, 2024 16:25:05 GMT -8
Thanks for the data Lucky! Each person looks at different things. I'm not really looking for other single companies to invest in right now, but if I was and was continuing to think somewhat longer term, I'd probably be curious about the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year (possibly also the 10 year) annualized return. I'd also look at the current P/E, the 12 month trailing earnings growth, and the 12 month earnings expectations from analysts (I like the P/E, but you kinda need these other things to help quantify it).Since my wife and I have always been long term investors, we've never stayed invested in AAPL because of the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year return. AAPL dropped -35% in 2002 and -57% in 2008, while Steve Jobs was CEO...and also dropped -5% in 2015, -6.8% in 2018 and -26.8% in 2022 while Tim Cook was CEO. Short term investors may have not continued to hold after experiencing those pullbacks in the share price. The concern over AAPL's current PE is overblown, IMO. BWDIK I don't expect you to add these. But like how the shorter term investor might only care about the momentum in the last year and not how it did overall, the longer term investor probably wants to get rid of some of the middle data, and instead think more about that 5 year trend.This is why we're long-term investors. 😎 Luckily the Stock app now makes that 5 year overall (not annualized) number easy to get. Looks like AAPL as done significantly better than Goog, AMZN, META and MSFT over that timeframe, though NVDA and TSLA have significantly beat AAPL's 5 year +386% figure.It's hard to know what the future holds, but I'm still thinking for the next 5 years AAPL should beat the Nasdaq and S&P. Just as it has in the past. This is a table that I keep on my main AAPL spreadsheet and it gets updated every time I update the current AAPL share price. AAPL doesn't have the most gain since 2001, or perhaps even over the last 5 years...but with 3 splits since 2001 along with the products, management and the consistency of the company, I'm not looking for anything else. I've shown this table previously...but it clearly shows how AAPL has *not* produced the most gain since 2001...Monster Beverage(MNST) beats it handily. AAPL has done better for many years but there's no making up for 2004 and 2005 when MNST was up over 300% each year.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,648
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2024 22:26:18 GMT -8
Thanks for the data Lucky! Each person looks at different things. I'm not really looking for other single companies to invest in right now, but if I was and was continuing to think somewhat longer term, I'd probably be curious about the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year (possibly also the 10 year) annualized return. I'd also look at the current P/E, the 12 month trailing earnings growth, and the 12 month earnings expectations from analysts (I like the P/E, but you kinda need these other things to help quantify it).Since my wife and I have always been long term investors, we've never stayed invested in AAPL because of the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year return. AAPL dropped -35% in 2002 and -57% in 2008, while Steve Jobs was CEO...and also dropped -5% in 2015, -6.8% in 2018 and -26.8% in 2022 while Tim Cook was CEO. Short term investors may have not continued to hold after experiencing those pullbacks in the share price. The concern over AAPL's current PE is overblown, IMO. BWDIK I completely agree. I feel it is wrong to put too much credence in a ~2 year period, and I'm really surprised that you of all people would look at varying 24 to 28 month periods for a handful of stocks, and then compare them. At a minimum pick an equal timeframe before their peaks of 3 years, but 5 is even better. 10 might be more ideal to help smooth out the data, but at some point you are potentially waiting a long time before turning the ship. A lot can happen over 10 years. I think it was back in '97, before I had any money invested in the stock market, that I was dealing with a scatter graph of data, and looking at the trend. Since that time I've seen stocks the same way, that there might be short term movements, similar to a sine wave's frequency and amplitude, moving all about. But the key, unless going for a cyclical, is the long term slope of change, after taking out all of that slop. And just like with the varying timeframes you have picked, while AAPL hasn't done the very best, it has done well. I value what you have posted, even if it is not quite how I would have looked at it. But you've said that you sometimes post this info in other places like Seeking Alpha, and I think it is important to be ready for the flaws that others might see. OTOH, if people there are only looking at the 12 month or under trend, then these numbers that are twice as long might be considered long term by that crowd.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2024 9:12:02 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,648
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2024 10:33:50 GMT -8
It will be great to hear people's experience with the AVP, and how/when they use it compared to their iPhone/iPad/Mac/TV. One use they are showing is not just media consumption, but your every day workflow. If that goes on, and works well, why would you use your Mac. Currently there is battery life, and potential issues are differing eye strain, wearing the unit for too long, or just the power of the processor used for general computing. I don't know those, other than battery life, are current issues for most people, though we'll hear a lot more once people are using them. But at some point, this could be the Mac replacement. And that helps with units, and also with justifying the pricing even if it eventually lowers like he is guessing, though my guess would be for the Pro version to stay up near this level, and a non-pro version coming in lower, eventually (1-2 years out, hopefully not 3). That will be a big thing to get unit sales up, especially if the main goal is a 1 to 1 implementation. As an aside, it would be interesting to learn how many of the customers have relatively standard fitment, like if 80% of customers would use just 2-4 sizes/types. This would be important if ever using them in bulk, like for the first class airline passengers, or at a movie theater. But it also plays into how much stock and varieties they have to have at retail for selling these. But it would be useful even as far as a family, knowing how many of the family could reasonably use it.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 21, 2024 11:12:04 GMT -8
Since my wife and I have always been long term investors, we've never stayed invested in AAPL because of the 2 year, 3 year, and 5 year return. AAPL dropped -35% in 2002 and -57% in 2008, while Steve Jobs was CEO...and also dropped -5% in 2015, -6.8% in 2018 and -26.8% in 2022 while Tim Cook was CEO. Short term investors may have not continued to hold after experiencing those pullbacks in the share price. The concern over AAPL's current PE is overblown, IMO. BWDIK I completely agree. I feel it is wrong to put too much credence in a ~2 year period, and I'm really surprised that you of all people would look at varying 24 to 28 month periods for a handful of stocks, and then compare them.I apologize for apparently not making it clear months ago when I first posted the table. I didn't decide to compare 7 stocks over a 2 year period to see how they performed when compared to one another. Instead, I noticed that, in early 2023, AAPL was moving to meet and surpass their previous ATH much quicker all the other stocks. MSFT was doing so as well. In mid-June AAPL had already exceeded its previous ATH, whereas all the others, except MSFT, had failed to do so. Even though AAPL had only gained 30.4% against its previous ATH, it had already surpassed it...the same for MSFT. Even thought META and TSLA had gained more than AAPL or MSFT when compared to their previous ATH, they were still far from it and would be unable to meet their previous ATH during the entirety of 2023.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,648
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2024 11:29:13 GMT -8
I completely agree. I feel it is wrong to put too much credence in a ~2 year period, and I'm really surprised that you of all people would look at varying 24 to 28 month periods for a handful of stocks, and then compare them.I apologize for apparently not making it clear months ago when I first posted the table. I didn't decide to compare 7 stocks over a 2 year period to see how they performed when compared to one another. Instead, I noticed that, in early 2023, AAPL was moving to meet and surpass their previous ATH much quicker all the other stocks. MSFT was doing so as well. In mid-June AAPL had already exceeded its previous ATH, whereas all the others, except MSFT, had failed to do so. Even though AAPL had only gained 30.4% against its previous ATH, it had already surpassed it...the same for MSFT. Even thought META and TSLA had gained more than AAPL or MSFT when compared to their previous ATH, they were still far from it and would be unable to meet their previous ATH during the entirety of 2023. View Attachment No need to apologize. But I should. Sorry for not being able to understand the value of the timeframe you selected to use. I understand how it is easy to use an ATH as a benchmark, just as I have many times with AAPL over the decades. Apple and others have had short to medium term issues, along with overall economy issues, that often affect 2 year time periods but normally round out when looking at 5 years or longer. I tend to look at shorter term movements as opportunities. But your info and timeframes make sense when thinking about it in certain ways, especially with people on other sites that might only think about the shorter term. I truly am curious about how the magnificent 7 compare over a 5 or 10 year period, and the posting of your long term spreadsheet that included Tesla showed that TSLA really did have a huge growth spurt that greatly outshined AAPL for the more recent decade+. But like not worrying about MSFT's market cap (stock app said it was just a tiny bit higher than Apple's at Friday's closing price...good to know but not anything to get worked up over), there can be multiple winners and I don't feel any worse about AAPL's amazing growth just because there was something else that did even better. Anyways, sorry for being bugged by it, and thanks for sharing your work. Aaron
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,648
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2024 11:40:50 GMT -8
For anyone out there that feels they missed out by not ordering an Apple Vision Pro right away, you might want to take another look.
It seems Apple has opened up some more time slots, or maybe moved some units from in-store to preorder, along with their pickup/fitment. At this moment there is a 512gig version available on the 2nd in Berkeley. The 3rd is available in Reno, Santa Rosa, and Modesto. And the 4th and other dates are available at many stores. For me, looking at our zip code and one in the East Bay, stores closer to SF seem sold out. I didn't try a slew of other zip codes or locations, like 10101 (NY), LA, Seattle, Portland or Phoenix. The 1T version also had availability, though the 256gig one was not available for pickup.
Looks like it is changing, so get in sooner rather than later if it is something you are after.
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