mark
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Post by mark on Feb 5, 2024 6:19:50 GMT -8
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Feb 5, 2024 8:11:12 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 5, 2024 8:34:59 GMT -8
and the form factor evolves to being like a sunglass. This analyst didn't do much research if he's willing to say something so wrong in public. This particular genre of product can't be like "google glass" because of the way it works. It needs the light and the eyes well enclosed. If he at least said "ski goggles", I'd take him a bit more seriously, but for now I can safely ignore anything he says on the matter.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2024 8:44:27 GMT -8
Very strong reception over the weekend gives Wedbush confidence in its 2024 unit target of 600,000 for Vision Pro, says Daniel Ives. He estimates $1M+ unit sales in 2025 as a cheaper version launches and the form factor evolves to being like a sunglass." Hmmmm. Something looks wrong with that. We try to teach our kids that units are important. Apparently it's stuck in my wife's mind, after failing an engineering quiz or assignment over it. The summary was above, but here is the text: So call it a 2000x difference, if using dollars instead of AVP2 units.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2024 9:58:32 GMT -8
I guess that the one thing that seems to be missing, or perhaps that I have overlooked, is the opportunity for shared experiences. What is the analog to inviting a few friends over to watch a movie together, never mind an important game for the local team? The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time, will restrict the number of participants who can share the experience. Heck, within a family, even just a man and wife, never mind a couple of children or neighbors, itâs either a cost shared in some way or a âbring your ownâ kind of situation. I mean, who is going to spend the cash to have one or two devices lying around for occasional use?
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Feb 5, 2024 10:36:03 GMT -8
I guess that the one thing that seems to be missing, or perhaps that I have overlooked, is the opportunity for shared experiences. What is the analog to inviting a few friends over to watch a movie together, never mind an important game for the local team? The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time, will restrict the number of participants who can share the experience. Heck, within a family, even just a man and wife, never mind a couple of children or neighbors, itâs either a cost shared in some way or a âbring your ownâ kind of situation. I mean, who is going to spend the cash to have one or two devices lying around for occasional use? This first gen AVP and apps are for solitary use it seems. Amazing for solo viewing of sports, movies, videos, 3D memories, science as well as game play and productivity - see Johanna Stern's reviews. But in the near future we can expect FaceTime to be any virtual space where people's avatars (or whatever Apple's calling them) can meet and interact. Have you read or seen "Ready Player One?" Eventually, with enough compute power and bandwidth, I'd think Apple wants to make that real - a shared space for humanity with pretty unlimited possibilities. Of course then we'd all be even more removed from reality than we are now, but think of the shareholder value created! đ Weight and price will come down each year. And I don't think the AVP will languish in a drawer after purchase, chinacat. For now, for Apple's well-heeled clients, this has the potential to be the ultimate computing device for work, travel and play. Please stand by...
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ems
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Post by ems on Feb 5, 2024 11:32:39 GMT -8
. Â I mean, who is going to spend the cash to have one or two devices lying around for occasional use? Back in the early days of iPhone, iPad, etc the same thing could apply. Or even the early days of computers. Now I have a handful of older iPhones and iPads and laptops laying around, just for that purpose (casual / guest use). Once the cost comes down and people start upgrading there will be tons of extras in a household in a similar manner to above devices.
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Post by pauls on Feb 5, 2024 11:42:14 GMT -8
I guess that the one thing that seems to be missing, or perhaps that I have overlooked, is the opportunity for shared experiences. What is the analog to inviting a few friends over to watch a movie together, never mind an important game for the local team? The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time, will restrict the number of participants who can share the experience. Heck, within a family, even just a man and wife, never mind a couple of children or neighbors, itâs either a cost shared in some way or a âbring your ownâ kind of situation. I mean, who is going to spend the cash to have one or two devices lying around for occasional use? These are great points. And at present, it can't realistically be shared, even within a family. The 'guest user' mode must be re-set each time you hand it to someone, even someone you handed it to 10 minutes earlier. Meaning scanning of hands, recalibrating eye capture cameras, questions about eyewear. It's possible, and there will be workarounds figured out, but so far it's been a pain. So it's a very personal piece of tech, showcasing future possibilities. I believe the social part of it can and will follow. When the form factor is smaller, lighter, less expensive.... The 'environments' cry out for shared social experience. Just watching the same movie on a huge perfect screen (it's amazing) on the surface of the moon in surround sound with one's family would be amazing, because alone, it's incredible. It's not the real world, but it is an amazing world, nonetheless. No reason not to share it. Or virtually attending a concert, or wandering through some sort of event, or a meeting.... But at this price, and heft, and sheer ahead-of-its-time-ness, it's a very solitary (but awesome!) experience. 6 min. IFixIt teardown video. I actually don't think it's that expensive. 3x iPhone seems fair, imo.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVJPAYwY8Us
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 5, 2024 12:54:44 GMT -8
The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time Why would we think it's "inevitable"? If we look at another example of "world changing" product, did the iPhone "inevitably" decrease in price over time? I think the price might come down somewhat, maybe a la AVP SE models, or even settle somewhere near $2k for the next generation low-tier model. But I don't think the price will decline precipitously. If anything, it may even go up as capabilities are added to it. It has a lot of expensive stuff inside it (the processor of a powerful laptop, 3+ hi-res displays, sensors out the wazoo, etc), and it may get more expensive stuff added with time.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Feb 5, 2024 13:29:57 GMT -8
The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time Why would we think it's "inevitable"? If we look at another example of "world changing" product, did the iPhone "inevitably" decrease in price over time? I think the price might come down somewhat, maybe a la AVP SE models, or even settle somewhere near $2k for the next generation low-tier model. But I don't think the price will decline precipitously. If anything, it may even go up as capabilities are added to it. It has a lot of expensive stuff inside it (the processor of a powerful laptop, 3+ hi-res displays, sensors out the wazoo, etc), and it may get more expensive stuff added with time. The cost of AVP will come down in several ways probably. There might be a Vision Air as well as the Vision Pro. Apple will probably offer year-old and two-year-old models for sale along with the latest year models as with iPhone. And then there's refurbished units and the second-hand market.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 5, 2024 14:30:45 GMT -8
I predict a new AppleTV in the near future that will add to the flexibility of the AVP.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2024 20:33:32 GMT -8
The cost of the device alone, even as it will inevitably decrease over time Why would we think it's "inevitable"? If we look at another example of "world changing" product, did the iPhone "inevitably" decrease in price over time? I think the price might come down somewhat, maybe a la AVP SE models, or even settle somewhere near $2k for the next generation low-tier model. But I don't think the price will decline precipitously. If anything, it may even go up as capabilities are added to it. It has a lot of expensive stuff inside it (the processor of a powerful laptop, 3+ hi-res displays, sensors out the wazoo, etc), and it may get more expensive stuff added with time. I never said precipitously, but I do believe that it will be necessary for the device to be as successful as it can be. Apple products have traditionally been at the higher levels of the price range, and deservedly so, but inevitably there are price adjustments, coupled with capability tradeoffs to bring more people on board. In this case there does not appear to be lower priced competitors to match the current capabilities, but inevitably there will be competitors who will offer similar, if lesser, capabilities at a reduced price; think iPhone SE for example, or the range of iMac offerings. The important thing is to draw folks into the ecosystem, trading short term revenue decreases for what often turn into a thirst for better features and lifelong attachments to all things Apple.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 6, 2024 2:58:06 GMT -8
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