aapl
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Post by aapl on Feb 26, 2024 6:45:17 GMT -8
AAPL has opened down again...@181.51 -$1.01 (-0.55%) as of 9:44am. Buying a few shares in the HSA next.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 26, 2024 7:14:01 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 26, 2024 7:17:32 GMT -8
When you can earn more from a risk-free CD than from a stock, there is definitely something wrong.
Today is the 5th test of the 181 level since the start of the year, 10% below ATH. Meanwhile, nasdaq making new ATH each week. It’s definitely disappointing.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 26, 2024 8:41:37 GMT -8
When you can earn more from a risk-free CD than from a stock, there is definitely something wrong. I fail to see your point; this is always possible depending on the prices paid for each and their post purchase performance. There are no guarantees in investing, only expectations.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 26, 2024 8:43:58 GMT -8
The point is that opportunity cost is a real factor, and that AAPL’s past overperformance is not a guarantee of future overperformance.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 26, 2024 8:56:53 GMT -8
It is basically dead money. One’s investment should at least be keeping up with inflation, otherwise you’re losing money.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 26, 2024 9:01:08 GMT -8
The point is that opportunity cost is a real factor, and that AAPL’s past overperformance is not a guarantee of future overperformance. Yes, I have always understood that as the essence of investing in stocks, and that bonds generally present a less risky, if more circumspect, opportunity, but there are no guarantees in either case, obviously depending on the specific stocks and bonds selected, and the timing thereof. Expectations are not guarantees.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 26, 2024 9:14:10 GMT -8
Like most data, if you pick thru it there are normally positives and negatives. In this case it is predictions from outsiders on EPS and revenue, guessing 4 years out. I don't really see how that can be very accurate, but then he isn't even looking at the estimates and comparing them to current values (ie EPS estimates have it going up 8.25% in the next 12 months), but instead looking at the estimates compared to estimates made ~6 months ago (down 0.8%! OMG!!!). Those estimates dropped a little more for 2026...but didn't drop as much for 2027, which means that the expected EPS growth in 2027 increased a bunch, now at 14.1%. The 4 year EPS estimated expected growth dropped from an overall near 50% to a little above 45%. Annualized, it dropped from 10.6% to 9.8%. Time to make a mountain! OTOH, one could reasonably expect estimates by outsiders guessing at 4 years out to be pretty related to how bullish or bearish they are on the company, and they are likely to be most bullish if the stock has had a steady upturn and is near or at the high. Pulling up the stock chart, AAPL was at a high right there at the end of July. The article shows the peak estimates in August. Hmmmm It seems estimates that far out would basically just be another example of investor sentiment. I'd rather see the stock flying, instead of currently inching downward after a big downturn and recovery that has made the net total of the last ~2 years to be tiny. But the silver lining of outsiders lowering their long term estimates is that they are then easier to beat.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Feb 26, 2024 9:17:18 GMT -8
When you can earn more from a risk-free CD than from a stock, there is definitely something wrong. Today is the 5th test of the 181 level since the start of the year, 10% below ATH. Meanwhile, nasdaq making new ATH each week. It’s definitely disappointing. As I read the "news" stories about Apple, I get the feeling that there is an increase in FUD. This seems to be the norm for Apple. In the absence of a campaign to continually promote the stock in the press and combined with Apple's understandable penchant for secrecy (are you listening Microsoft and Google? Of course you are).We seem to drift slowly downward for months, then make a strong move up. Remember when Steve was dying and that creep who runs Business Insider was shilling for Samsung? Apple was kicking it and the stock slid from 700 to 400. before the split, we sat at 115 for months. I think the herd money is all chasing NVDA and AI shocks and using Apple as a bank. Patience is the key. When Apples AI strategy becomes clear (maybe at WWDC) we will see another move up, maybe a split. I had a Applevision Pro demo last night. It's for real and nobody, nobody is ready for this. I don't see how Google or MIcrosoft are going to compete with this. It is the biggest leap forward since Xerox Parc invented Smalltalk and graphical interfaces. I was staggered and am still trying to envision the impact. It is not a question of whether it will be adopted or a success. It was jus f**king incredible. I almost bought 2 of them. The Apple associate said that 20% of the people who see the demo buy it. I think this is a home run for Apple and it will just gt better as the technology is applied. I cannot find words to describe it adequately, please go try it. This is big
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 26, 2024 9:39:30 GMT -8
Patience is the key. When Apples AI strategy becomes clear (maybe at WWDC) we will see another move up, maybe a split. I have to remind myself that while I don't think the stock is drastically low right now, this steady push towards 180 does help push investor sentiment down along with options premiums. This could be a good time to pick up something, and even one that is just slightly bullish and has a long timeframe could still be nice. I had a Applevision Pro demo last night. It's for real and nobody, nobody is ready for this. I don't see how Google or MIcrosoft are going to compete with this. It is the biggest leap forward since Xerox Parc invented Smalltalk and graphical interfaces. I was staggered and am still trying to envision the impact. It is not a question of whether it will be adopted or a success. It was jus f**king incredible. I almost bought 2 of them. The Apple associate said that 20% of the people who see the demo buy it. I think this is a home run for Apple and it will just gt better as the technology is applied. I cannot find words to describe it adequately, please go try it. This is big Sounds great! We're only 3.5 weeks in. I'm sure the tough part is getting to critical mass, having enough people have wonderful experiences that the excitement and word of mouth spreads. At the same time, there are the issues of fixing any SW or HW problems that arise, getting enough 3rd party developers on board, and spreading on to other regions. The next 12 months of this product intro should be fun to watch, and it is great to hear of these positive experiences.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 26, 2024 11:29:14 GMT -8
When you can earn more from a risk-free CD than from a stock, there is definitely something wrong. Today is the 5th test of the 181 level since the start of the year, 10% below ATH. Meanwhile, nasdaq making new ATH each week. It’s definitely disappointing. I had a Applevision Pro demo last night. It's for real and nobody, nobody is ready for this. I don't see how Google or MIcrosoft are going to compete with this. It is the biggest leap forward since Xerox Parc invented Smalltalk and graphical interfaces. I was staggered and am still trying to envision the impact. It is not a question of whether it will be adopted or a success. It was just xxf**king incredible. I almost bought 2 of them. The Apple associate said that 20% of the people who see the demo buy it. I think this is a home run for Apple and it will just gt better as the technology is applied. I cannot find words to describe it adequately, please go try it. This is big Exactly right! The Vision Pro is the first edition of a product that is unlike *anything* most people have ever seen. The enthusiasm evident in bud777's comment is what will be felt by any thinking person who tries the Apple Vision Pro...it's truly remarkable. Shortly after we got ours, my wife and I watched the initial "Raiders of the Lost Ark" movie after choosing the moon's surface as our environment. So, a massive screen for the movie and completely out of our normal living room environment when looking at the sides of the screen(or behind us). My favorite experience with the AVP, however, is the short clip made by Apple called Encounter Dinosaurs. It's a relatively short clip and I've watched it more times that I'm willing to admit. I just can't get over the sensation of walking up to the "screen" and having the dinosaurs, small and *very* large, come over very close to you(within 2 feet) and sniff you. Plus, when the very large T-Rex comes close to the screen at one point, it appears to stick its head into the room. Unfingbelivable! I can't emphasize it enough...what bud777 said about the AVP is absolutely correct. Don't listen to the naysayers. Yes, it's expensive...yes, it's heavy on your head, etc. But this is the first edition of the product. Go to the nearest Apple Store and try it for yourself. It's the only way to truly understand what Apple has done. There's a very good reason that Mark Zuckerberg felt that he had to make a video denouncing the Apple Vision Pro and stating that META's product, the Quest 3, was superior. I can't imagine Tim Cook feeling the need to make a similar video knocking a competitor's product. Explore Encounter Dinosaurs on Apple Vision Pro
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Feb 26, 2024 22:22:23 GMT -8
When you can earn more from a risk-free CD than from a stock, there is definitely something wrong. I had a Applevision Pro demo last night. It's for real and nobody, nobody is ready for this. I don't see how Google or MIcrosoft are going to compete with this. It is the biggest leap forward since Xerox Parc invented Smalltalk and graphical interfaces. I was staggered and am still trying to envision the impact. It is not a question of whether it will be adopted or a success. It was jus f**king incredible. I almost bought 2 of them. The Apple associate said that 20% of the people who see the demo buy it. I think this is a home run for Apple and it will just gt better as the technology is applied. I cannot find words to describe it adequately, please go try it. This is big Have you tried the latest Meta Quest? We just used it to present for a client at a trade shown in the Middle East. It was a hit. I even felt like getting a headset for myself, it was quite compelling. But I am convinced the VP will leave it in the dust. Anyone tried both?
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