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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 9:45:41 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2013 10:29:14 GMT -8
It's not an important resistance level. Just trust me on that. What we want to see is 469-->484-->fill gap to 514. By time we get to 514, the only significant moving averages above us will be the 50 week and 200 day. Decisively break the 200 day, and we're going to be off to the races. So what happens to the retrace to 430? Do we save it for a rainy day? We'll need to fill it at some point, no? IMO, the gaps since 385 are all small enough that they don't need to be filled. I don't think any of them are greater than 0.5% even. There could and should be bumps (retraces) along the way to 469, 484 and 514. But maybe there won't be. If we've reversed course, don't get caught waiting for a retrace that never comes. Theoretically if we don't go below 447 again, I'm buying if we take down the daily SMA100 (currently 465/trending down, and I'd feel pretty safe that 469 will get taken out if that goes first). If we retrace before that, I'm buying if we don't go back into the downtrend. That's as simple as I can put it right now. There are too many IF/THEN possibilities to post them all. I just play it day by day, or actually minute by minute  |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 2, 2013 10:31:01 GMT -8
I bought back my May 3 440 covered calls at a loss...as I feared I might have to....
As I posted yesterday, the trend has changed as far as I am concerned and no more covered call writing for a while...not worth the gravy...but it worked pretty well for five months...
But not buying calls either...... ;D
Let's see more proof...I do believe 460 is very doable next week....
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Post by rob_london on May 2, 2013 10:36:38 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 10:49:24 GMT -8
I would like to see at least 4 million more shares traded in the last hour and push thru 450 and close above 450.
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Post by terps530 on May 2, 2013 10:54:44 GMT -8
I would like to see at least 4 million more shares traded in the last hour and push thru 450 and close above 450.  bearish and bullish! learn something new every day |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 10:59:24 GMT -8
The losers seem to be Nokia and HTC, although the bottom six (of 8) manufacturers seem to be treading water. All industry growth has gone to Samsung and Apple, with LG, Sony MOT and BKBY holding fairly steady. This is a 2 horse race, with the majority of industry profits going to Apple. I'm in the camp that unit share means squat, when you control industry profit share. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 11:00:05 GMT -8
I would like to see at least 4 million more shares traded in the last hour and push thru 450 and close above 450. Wouldn't we all. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 11:13:50 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 11:16:28 GMT -8
Not likely. Displays and cost are an issue. Perhaps next year. |
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mark
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Post by mark on May 2, 2013 11:19:36 GMT -8
But it's a supply issue, right? Why doesn't Apple just add more carriers and supply more phones? Perhaps because carriers are unwilling to accept Apple's terms? If so, that is a demand issue. Carriers do not want to "buy" what Apple is "selling". Apple has made it clear they will not lower prices to spur demand for their products other then selling older iPhones at a discount. The ball is in Apples court and they won't budget. I like their strategy. It hurts them short term but makes them stronger in the long run. That is why their margins are high. They keep a tight ship in manufacturing which may negatively impact them in high demand periods. But they won't increase supply and lower their prices to counter the weaker months. I'm not so sure this is completely true anymore. Witness the discounting of the iPad Mini recently. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 2, 2013 11:27:35 GMT -8
They ALWAYS lower the prices of pricey first-gen non-iPhone product over time. Remember when the 20" lamp iMac sold for $2199? You can get quite the machine for that price now.
Cost curve, demand, it's all related.
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 11:32:28 GMT -8
Mark
I think the iPad is in a different category. The intro of the Mini earlier then I had anticipated (Apple saw that demand was softening due to cheaper competition) was a sign that Apple was willing to lose margin for market share.
They may lower the Mini in price when the Retina comes out. Apple can afford to lose margins and market share.
As we look forward we must focus on overall iOS devices. As the iWatch and iTV come out, the ecosystem gets bigger and stronger.
Apple needs to grow revenue and profits and I think they will as we enter 2014.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 2, 2013 12:00:08 GMT -8
Buyers disappeared in the last 10 min. Weird.
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Post by aapl4kiki on May 2, 2013 12:05:43 GMT -8
I am not agreeing with your conclusion. Apple still has supply problems simply because they want to maintain high margins. The only way for them to move more phones is to only make older models. That is not their MO. If they lowered their prices and added more carriers Foxconn could not keep up with demand for the iPHone 5. Wow. If BMW slashed their prices in half they'd also have supply problems. In fact, this applies to pretty much any business. Lowering prices increases demand - amazing insight! Anyone with a shred of business acumen would understand that if one is talking about a demand problem, it means under the current business model. I am well aware that Apple would have supply issues if iPhones and iPads were selling for $4.99  By the way, as evidenced many, many times (no iPad mini, no substantial buyback etc.) you do not have a clue about Apple's MO. Seriously tuffett, you're turning into an internet bully. Let it go already. There's this thing called ignore. I highly recommend it in this case. I, on the other hand, happen to enjoy Sponge's musings. Keep it up Sponge. |
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mark
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Post by mark on May 2, 2013 12:09:32 GMT -8
Warren Buffett has started tweeting... (@warrenbuffett. I believe it has been verified as genuine) It is genuine and his first tweet was apparently about the housing market :-) Here's a link - |
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on May 2, 2013 12:13:41 GMT -8
Buyers disappeared in the last 10 min. Weird. They were all busy checking out Warren Buffett's twitter activity. ;D |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 12:17:06 GMT -8
Buyers disappeared in the last 10 min. Weird. I am glad we closed above 445. |
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Post by lovemyipad on May 2, 2013 12:21:21 GMT -8
NEW RULE:
People who make my life difficult* go in Time Out for a week (to start). If you find you can read but no longer post, you're in Time Out.
*if I receive multiple complaints in my Inbox about your posts
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Post by lovemyipad on May 2, 2013 12:24:12 GMT -8
I bought back my May 3 440 covered calls at a loss...as I feared I might have to.... As I posted yesterday, the trend has changed as far as I am concerned and no more covered call writing for a while...not worth the gravy...but it worked pretty well for five months... But not buying calls either...... ;D Let's see more proof...I do believe 460 is very doable next week.... I thought about you and those calls today, Red -- was worried!! |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 12:26:17 GMT -8
I can still post. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 2, 2013 12:27:02 GMT -8
Momo Mav went fixin' for trouble...and found it.
Well, I _do_ have a couple weeks for AAPL to go back up a few bucks. Otherwise I can just bail. Still just testing the waters with smaller bets for now.
Don't see anything _bad_ about AAPL's price action lately, though there's always chart-readin' for me to do.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 2, 2013 12:33:44 GMT -8
NEW RULE: People who make my life difficult* go in Time Out for a week (to start). If you find you can read but no longer post, you're in Time Out. *if I receive multiple complaints in my Inbox about your posts Testing...testing...Am I in time out? I can't feel my legs......   |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 2, 2013 12:38:16 GMT -8
Oh that? You should check to see if you got assimilated. Again.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 2, 2013 12:39:28 GMT -8
I bought back my May 3 440 covered calls at a loss...as I feared I might have to.... As I posted yesterday, the trend has changed as far as I am concerned and no more covered call writing for a while...not worth the gravy...but it worked pretty well for five months... But not buying calls either...... ;D Let's see more proof...I do believe 460 is very doable next week.... I thought about you and those calls today, Red -- was worried!! thanks, Lovey. I knew earlier this week that this strategy had grown stale. I promised myself yesterday that if we gapped up in the morning and held for 90 minutes...I was buying em back and not playing anymore. I wonder if we do get a meaningful retrace along here...I mean, today just held up really well once 447 was established.....The 50 day is safely in the rear view mirror at this point.... |
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Post by staralpha on May 2, 2013 12:44:45 GMT -8
To be honest I'd like it go back to the 50 day and then just launch off of it, and get a violent short covering move (what little short there is anyway). Don't even have to drop to it... consolidating here and let the 50 day come to current levels works too. Though I'd admit that wouldn't work too well with my current options daytrade morning plan
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Post by rob_london on May 2, 2013 12:49:57 GMT -8
Buyers disappeared in the last 10 min. Weird. They were all busy checking out Warren Buffett's twitter activity. ;D He is tweeting from an iPad. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 12:55:27 GMT -8
TC listened to him and bought back stock.
What excites me about the way they did the buy back is that Apple hangs on to cash, buys enough to lower dividend cost, and they can do the same thing again every 3 years.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 12:57:26 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 13:01:48 GMT -8
Not likely. Displays and cost are an issue. Perhaps next year. But Apple did announce a Flash memory option for iMacs today. I was thinking of upgrading to a new iMac (just because) but don't need 27" screen. The Flash memory option is an animal of a different color. Boot and read/write times for my Filemaker and Excel spreadsheets should explode. THAT has me giving a new iMac A LOT of thought (I'll let you know how much faster it is). I can see this upgrade spurring a sales volume lurch. |
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