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Post by phoebear611 on May 2, 2013 3:13:49 GMT -8
So we are up a bit in PM...no big news in today's markets...could be a quiet day. Wednesday to Friday sometimes shows a bit of weakness into the weekly PIN. We'll see.
Looking through other blogs/threads there is still strong belief that we need to retrace back to the low 430s before moving significantly forward but AAPL always surprises us so we will have to watch.
Mercel posted a list of things that could be a catalyst for this stock late in yesterday's thread. He's right. You see it often - any small piece of good news makes this stock run so one can only imagine if the company announces anything at all (i.e. deals, partnerships, etc.) - we will have a few whhheeee days. I am optimistically cautious.
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Post by frqntflr on May 2, 2013 4:51:40 GMT -8
i'm sure we've all seen the latest IDC tablet estimates for Q1 ... big news was that iPads dipped below 40% share for the quarter even with 19.5M sold the particular item of note was the 'other' category with 15.5M sold ... the lowest sales of a listed vendor was MS with 0.9M sales ... so presumably no other vendor in the 'other' category had as many or they would be listed ... that means we've got a whole bunch of small vendors adding up to 15.5M in sales ... looks bogus to me ... maybe IDC grossly overestimated this category with the single purpose to drive down iPads market share just came across another estimate on Q1 tablet sales from Strategy Analytics on SA post ... seekingalpha.com/article/1392721-how-apple-s-pain-is-intel-s-gainnotice that SA only lists 0.5M sales under 'other' i don't doubt that Android is making gains but these estimates of shipping numbers (vs. actual reported sales, and that only from Apple) can be wildly manipulated |
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2013 5:02:31 GMT -8
Here's something I've learned over the past two years...
IDC SUCKS
Their numbers never make any sense, especially when compared to actual numbers released from vendors.
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Post by jmolloy on May 2, 2013 5:15:58 GMT -8
Here's something I've learned over the past two years... IDC SUCKS Their numbers never make any sense, especially when compared to actual numbers released from vendors. I'm not really sure what market share means any more. Based on this information it seems to mean "out ship" your competition or maybe dump product or perhaps you don't actually have to make anything and let the analysts make the numbers up for you. Business Insider headlines "Android Now Ahead Of Apple's iOS In Tablet Market Share" are disingenuous to say the least. Out shipping Apple in 3 consecutive quarters does not outweigh 3 years of an almost exclusive sales lead from Apple. |
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Post by phoebear611 on May 2, 2013 5:19:09 GMT -8
Here's something I've learned over the past two years... IDC SUCKS Their numbers never make any sense, especially when compared to actual numbers released from vendors. I'm not really sure what market share means any more. Based on this information it seems to mean "out ship" your competition or maybe dump product or perhaps you don't actually have to make anything and let the analysts make the numbers up for you. Business Insider headlines "Android Now Ahead Of Apple's iOS In Tablet Market Share" are disingenuous to say the least. Out shipping Apple in 3 consecutive quarters does not outweigh 3 years of an almost exclusive sales lead from Apple. HOLD THE PHONE....you expect HONESTY from BLODGET??? -- who is now backed by AMZN? Hmm.... |
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Post by jmolloy on May 2, 2013 5:20:39 GMT -8
HOLD THE PHONE....you expect HONESTY from BLODGET??? -- who is now backed by AMZN? Hmm.... It was Kovach actually, I think Blodget was being too busy appearing on that TV version of his rag - CNBC. ;D EDIT: Oh and yes I forgot Bozo invested in them - I tweeted Yarow at the time that it would all be slagging off the iPad from now on, and got the one word reply "No". That didn't last too long, did it? |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 5:36:20 GMT -8
HOLD THE PHONE....you expect HONESTY from BLODGET??? -- who is now backed by AMZN? Hmm.... It was Kovach actually, I think Blodget was being too busy appearing on that TV version of his rag - CNBC. ;D EDIT: Oh and yes I forgot Bozo invested in them - I tweeted Yarow at the time that it would all be slagging off the iPad from now on, and got the one word reply "No". That didn't last too long, did it? Now that made me laugh. CNBC has become a rogue's gallery hasn't it? |
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Post by terps530 on May 2, 2013 5:41:13 GMT -8
how bout aapl, 450 challenge #1 this mornin
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 5:43:00 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 5:47:54 GMT -8
HOLD THE PHONE....you expect HONESTY from BLODGET??? -- who is now backed by AMZN? Hmm.... The new Blodget-Bezos alliance is doing much for AMZN: Today, it's down some more. Too bad my puts expired in April. I'm done chasing this Hindenburg with a leak. |
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2013 5:48:06 GMT -8
how bout aapl, 450 challenge #1 this mornin I'm looking for 450 before we retrace the move from 392.50. Should retrace to around 430. Will look to start adding there. |
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Post by staralpha on May 2, 2013 5:55:00 GMT -8
Position open and closed for 7 May 3 445 Call.
In @ $2.96
Out @ $3.70
I wanted to let it run a bit more, but most times I try to on a Thursday I've been burned, so I'll take my gains and call it a day. Standard psychological resistance at 450.
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 6:13:36 GMT -8
Despite my new Bearish view I am still on a high level of margin and will continue do so for a long time. This time however I am leaving myself much more breathing room. So I have not bought shares since earnings day in AH. I have been buying a few 550 contracts which I will sell as soon as we get to 475-480 area and then decide weather to roll into jan15 calls right away or just wait for a correction and rebuy jan14 again.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 2, 2013 6:16:38 GMT -8
how bout aapl, 450 challenge #1 this mornin I'm looking for 450 before we retrace the move from 392.50. Should retrace to around 430. Will look to start adding there. I'm right behind you! |
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2013 6:26:02 GMT -8
Can't rule out the chart really ripping upward here either, so be ready for it. Bollinger band is opening up, and for a change we're headed in the right direction.
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Post by terps530 on May 2, 2013 6:27:25 GMT -8
Despite my new Bearish view I am still on a high level of margin and will continue do so for a long time. This time however I am leaving myself much more breathing room. So I have not bought shares since earnings day in AH. I have been buying a few 550 contracts which I will sell as soon as we get to 475-480 area and then decide weather to roll into jan15 calls right away or just wait for a correction and rebuy jan14 again. welcome back i just saw the posts from yesterday and today. Sponge a bear? this is epic! also it completely explains the disaster stock performance while you were a bull and the 15% gain thus far while you are bearish. stay bearish please it will be good for aapl  |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 6:36:21 GMT -8
Despite my new Bearish view I am still on a high level of margin and will continue do so for a long time. This time however I am leaving myself much more breathing room. So I have not bought shares since earnings day in AH. I have been buying a few 550 contracts which I will sell as soon as we get to 475-480 area and then decide weather to roll into jan15 calls right away or just wait for a correction and rebuy jan14 again. welcome back i just saw the posts from yesterday and today. Sponge a bear? this is epic! also it completely explains the disaster stock performance while you were a bull and the 15% gain thus far while you are bearish. stay bearish please it will be good for aapl Being bearish is good for me. I can move more cautiously. The best news is that I will buying in the next two years with more of my own money if we stay under 600 for a long time. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 6:46:26 GMT -8
Being bearish is good for me. As a contrarian indicator, it's good for all of us. Keep it up. ;D |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 6:58:30 GMT -8
I posted this in yesterday's thread: IDC's numbers have always been suspect, IMO. The biggest problem with them is that the media picks them up and rebroadcasts them as fact, which they clearly are not. Collectively, if we all spent the day noting which tablets we observed in the wild (Android and iPad), we'd be much closer to actual than is IDC. Oh, you might notice that the difference between IDC and SA numbers is in Android units. For those wondering, that's the difference between shipped and sold. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 7:03:42 GMT -8
The problem I have is that with Apples guidance for this quarter we will see a flat YOY number in iPads and a drop in iPhones. Not good signs in a growing market.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 7:05:33 GMT -8
SOLD
Closed my 3rd trade (since earnings) less than 2 minutes into today's session. Seven trading days, three trades, initial trade amount up 81%.
In the meantime, P/C Ratio continues to favor Puts by increasing amounts. Yesterday new Puts exceeded new Calls (WoW). P/C Ratio on new contracts 1.27:1. Not good.
I'm going to sit it out until Monday on fear of a pullback.
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 7:13:46 GMT -8
The problem I have is that with Apples guidance for this quarter we will see a flat YOY number in iPads and a drop in iPhones. Not good signs in a growing market. A quarter, or two, does not a history make. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 7:14:29 GMT -8
SOLD Closed my 3rd trade (since earnings) less than 2 minutes into today's session. Seven trading days, three trades, initial trade amount up 81%. In the meantime, P/C Ratio continues to favor Puts by increasing amounts. Yesterday new Puts exceeded new Calls (WoW). P/C Ratio on new contracts 1.27:1. Not good. I'm going to sit it out until Monday on fear of a pullback. More puts are better --applies buying pressure from the option writers. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 7:15:32 GMT -8
To me the only catalysts for big moves in the near term will be pre all digital conf when TC speaks at end of May and maybe WWDC at beginning of June.
We could have some further strength next week before dividend cut off date of May 8.
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Post by appledoc on May 2, 2013 7:18:35 GMT -8
To me the only catalysts for big moves in the near term You don't need catalysts to make big moves, and I'd argue that the biggest catalyst has already occurred. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 7:21:05 GMT -8
The problem I have is that with Apples guidance for this quarter we will see a flat YOY number in iPads and a drop in iPhones. Not good signs in a growing market. A quarter, or two, does not a history make. Yes I agree. It just confirms some of the data we see from IDC. I no longer look at iPhone or iPad numbers. I look at overall iOS numbers. If we are growing at a healthy rate of 15-20% then we are doing fine. We will struggle the next two quarters so we must look next year for real growth to return. I don't have high expectations for the rest of the year. The second half growth story won't be as impressive as some on WS expect. I don't see margins moving much past 39% since it is clear the iPhone 5 costs a great deal more to make and Apple is selling many more lower priced iPhones and less expensive iPads as well. |
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Post by tuffett on May 2, 2013 7:21:07 GMT -8
The problem I have is that with Apples guidance for this quarter we will see a flat YOY number in iPads and a drop in iPhones. Not good signs in a growing market. But it's a supply issue, right? Why doesn't Apple just add more carriers and supply more phones? Perhaps because carriers are unwilling to accept Apple's terms? If so, that is a demand issue. Carriers do not want to "buy" what Apple is "selling". |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 7:27:19 GMT -8
To me the only catalysts for big moves in the near term You don't need catalysts to make big moves, and I'd argue that the biggest catalyst has already occurred. For me a big move would be seeing 480 end of June. I think we will need more news to get us there beyond the most recent ER. The buyback has kept us above 400. That was a catalyst to prevent further selling. We are still well below the initial lows post Jan earnings. So I want us to get above 465 and hold it. |
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 7:36:37 GMT -8
SOLD Closed my 3rd trade (since earnings) less than 2 minutes into today's session. Seven trading days, three trades, initial trade amount up 81%. In the meantime, P/C Ratio continues to favor Puts by increasing amounts. Yesterday new Puts exceeded new Calls (WoW). P/C Ratio on new contracts 1.27:1. Not good. I'm going to sit it out until Monday on fear of a pullback. More puts are better --applies buying pressure from the option writers. I understand the dynamic when options are written, my concern is the sentiment being expressed by all those Put buyers. Intraday low is now trading above the 50 DMA. The only other time this has happened since last September (March 25-26) AAPL peaked, then dropped $35.xx. Is this what those Put buyers are preparing for? Or does this run have legs? Inquiring minds want to know. |
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Post by sponge on May 2, 2013 7:36:40 GMT -8
The problem I have is that with Apples guidance for this quarter we will see a flat YOY number in iPads and a drop in iPhones. Not good signs in a growing market. But it's a supply issue, right? Why doesn't Apple just add more carriers and supply more phones? Perhaps because carriers are unwilling to accept Apple's terms? If so, that is a demand issue. Carriers do not want to "buy" what Apple is "selling". Apple has made it clear they will not lower prices to spur demand for their products other then selling older iPhones at a discount. The ball is in Apples court and they won't budget. I like their strategy. It hurts them short term but makes them stronger in the long run. That is why their margins are high. They keep a tight ship in manufacturing which may negatively impact them in high demand periods. But they won't increase supply and lower their prices to counter the weaker months. |
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