|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 4, 2024 3:18:57 GMT -8
Well, that was a great earnings. I'm hoping we can keep the momentum in to next week too.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 4, 2024 3:21:03 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on May 4, 2024 3:22:54 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,152
|
Post by Dave on May 4, 2024 5:39:04 GMT -8
As always I'm just guessing, but if by the end of the WWDC Apple hasn't giving the world anything but promises concerning AI then I see the stock price dropping like a rock. It will be an indication that Apple is trying to play catch-up with AI as they continue buying AI companies that can provide them with a clue. At the very least Shri should be re-introduced as something amazing, a true personal assistant that does connect with all of Apples devices and software. Tim should share his "extreme optimism" with the rest of the world with a few details.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 4, 2024 8:03:32 GMT -8
Dave, Dan I'ves recently: "Tim Cooke is 10% politician, and 90% CEO" WWDC are the events with details, and Machine Learning (AI) has been detailed for years. Apple WWDC June 10, 10AM PST, Queue slides:AI hardware: Apple Neural Engine in SOC chips, Cores and Operations/second (or TOPS) (from 2017) Software: Core ML and Models (from 2017) Presenter Intro: John Giannandrea, Senior Vice President Machine Learning and AI Strategy (hired 2018) Efficient, small LLM: Privacy, on device LLM: Both on device and cloud: Overwhelming xx% of user task will be performed on device. iOS 18: Supporting iPhone 12 and forward (2020 model, indicating the planning revealed at WWDC since 2017. *newest features require A15) ... Etc.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 4, 2024 8:11:54 GMT -8
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 4, 2024 8:54:10 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,152
|
Post by Dave on May 4, 2024 10:24:40 GMT -8
Thanks Ono for that information. While reading over the transcript I noticed the two questions that continue to come up are about AI and China. I think that those two items are the things that most people are most concerned about, and rightfully so. Tim Cook saying that he is very optimistic about the future of AI and Apple will not satisfy Mr. Market. When the bears start to put pressure on the stock price the bulls need something with a little more substance then Tims optimism to hold on to. I don't doubt that there are tons of app developers out there right now waiting for Apple to provide the hardware and the date for release, and we will be amazed at what will be made available. I'm very much looking forward to what they have created. China is what it is, for better or for worse and Tim has little to no control with how it plays out. But AI is something that he does have some control over. Throw the media a bone to naw on for the next few weeks, or months, with examples of what is in the AI pipeline for the public and for the investors. I don't think that is asking too much.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on May 4, 2024 14:04:35 GMT -8
WWDC is normally mostly software. Seems like many devices have had lots of power for a while now. The biggie is harnessing that power to do awesome things, especially that amaze the crowds.
In thinking about Tim Cook being optimistic, I think of Steve and all the times that he would say the upcoming product line was the best ever. Or Elon, of course. They make fun of that one with Tesla time.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 6:51:41 GMT -8
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 7:16:57 GMT -8
It's very-like Apple to let anticipation build. Apple has sold a lot of iPhones since 2020, so performant A14 hardware is well seeded in the installed base.
Patience. Re lack of AI news until June 10th, 5 weeks to go. Then, iOS 18 in September. Then, Apple's Q1 (CQ4) earnings call ~ Feb 1, 2025. Thats a pregnancy! AAPL Feb = Boom!🤞🥳
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 5, 2024 8:29:38 GMT -8
I categorically do not believe that “getting a clue” is why Apple buys any company, including in the AI space.
My belief is that they have an overall plan, which includes buying companies that accelerate or enhance that plan. Not because they are sitting around clueless.
Apple keeps their mouths shut until they have something of substance to announce. Unlike what all kinds of companies are doing in the AI space. Burning money because they can generate empty hype or release junk products like Humane and Rabbit.
With that said, they really need to do something about Siri.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 9:18:58 GMT -8
(From 2017 to Sept 25th, 2023) Apple has purchased 21 AI startups since 2017, nearly double the number that Microsoft and Meta have bought. Accenture, a global consulting firm, bought 19—good for second-most behind Apple. <insert graphic> DarwinAI is just the latest AI startup Apple has acquired in recent years. Since 2017, the Cupertino, California-based tech giant has been the top buyer of AI and machine learning companies, purchasing nearly twice as many as Microsoft and Meta. (March 2024) Apple has included AI related hardware since 2017, for photos etc. See the above picture for when the TOPS performance has jumped. Ahead of Qualcomms mobile chip. So, yeah, I agree Apple hasn't just woken up to the concept. They clued themselves in several years ago.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 9:28:37 GMT -8
China is an issue, many issues. Luca attempts to address it by pointing to addressible virgin markets with huge populations and low installed base. Knowing how quickly those markets can mature is tough to tell.
Maestri: I think, Richard, you’re asking a really interesting question. We were looking at something similar recently. Obviously, China is by far the largest emerging market that we have. But when we start looking at places like India, like Saudi, like Mexico, Turkey, of course Brazil and Mexico, and Indonesia, the numbers are getting large and we’re very happy because these are markets where our market share is low, the populations are large and growing, and our products are really making a lot of progress in those markets. The level of excitement for the brand is very high. Tim was in Southeast Asia recently, and the level of excitement is incredibly high. So it is very good for us, and certainly the numbers are getting larger all the time and so the gap as you compare it to the numbers in China is reducing and hopefully that trajectory continues for a long time.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 9:35:56 GMT -8
Kill Siri.
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 9:46:10 GMT -8
Speaking of killing. I'm killing time while I upgrade my young adult kid's iPhone 11 to a 14 Pro. It was tough to steal it away to perform a backup and now migration. Kid doesn't want to upgrade. It'll be nice though, with satellite SOS, roadside assist, fresh battery, great cameras, bright screen, etc. USB C for future migrations ought to be fast, but this is slow going.
Has anyone used the new subscription version 3 of iMazing app?
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 9:54:55 GMT -8
Has anyone calculated what the dividend would be if the $110B buybacks were instead paid as a dividend this year? I'll look for a number of the current outstanding (shrinking) number of shares. Such a dividend would have an attractive yield, I think. What would a share price multiple be on such a (low revenue growth) dividend value stock?
Apple's Board has been, so far, right in betting on share buybacks vs. dividends. (In my case, I'm pleased. A lot of others aren't I understand.)
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2024 13:53:05 GMT -8
Has anyone calculated what the dividend would be if the $110B buybacks were instead paid as a dividend this year? I'll look for a number of the current outstanding (shrinking) number of shares. Such a dividend would have an attractive yield, I think. What would a share price multiple be on such a (low revenue growth) dividend value stock? Apple's Board has been, so far, right in betting on share buybacks vs. dividends. (In my case, I'm pleased. A lot of others aren't I understand.) I believe it's about 15.4B diluted outstanding shares, or that at least gets you close. Roughly speaking, that $110B gets you about 4% of the shares. So instead, that would give about a 4% dividend addition, so 4.5%. I don't think people fully value share buybacks in the short term (instead people are focused on the same number they were, like a share price of $200, $220, $250, or whatever). In the longer term it should matter more, but it is hard to quantify it exactly, since the P/E changes quite a bit based on how people are feeling about the company, stock, future, past, market, global items, and just about everything. So instead you just kinda have to trust that it all works out in the long run. But on dividends, some people really put value on a slowly increasing but consistently increasing dividend payout. So making a special one time increase wouldn't do that, and you never know if there is going to be some problem that makes a 4+% rate unsustainable. I think the issues of ~1997 still stick in the minds of those at the top at Apple, which is part of why Apple has this cash pile, which also gives them lots of flexibility in economic downturns while other companies are having layoffs. But buybacks are a bit more flexible, letting a company ease off when finances aren't great, even if they would be ideal during a stock downturn. Hope the switchover to the new iPhone went well. When I remember, I try to delete as many things off of an iPhone or Mac before switching over, especially if it is something that is easy to refresh later. Like music, and sometimes photos/videos. It seems like valid time estimates on installs or transfers are something that they haven't managed to do well.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,575
|
Post by mark on May 5, 2024 14:10:36 GMT -8
I don't like dividends at all. Dividends mean that a company decides when you will pay taxes on [part of] your gains instead you deciding on your own. I much prefer share buybacks with excess cash. If you REALLY want/need a dividend of 4%, simply sell 4% of your shares [perhaps even to Apple] each year, it is effectively the exact same thing.
|
|
aapl
fire starter
Posts: 194
|
Post by aapl on May 5, 2024 16:09:17 GMT -8
Speaking of killing. I'm killing time while I upgrade my young adult kid's iPhone 11 to a 14 Pro. It was tough to steal it away to perform a backup and now migration. Kid doesn't want to upgrade. It'll be nice though, with satellite SOS, roadside assist, fresh battery, great cameras, bright screen, etc. USB C for future migrations ought to be fast, but this is slow going. Has anyone used the new subscription version 3 of iMazing app? Fastest migration is to use a cable for the iPhone to iPhone transfer? Or are you the migration/upgrade from backup on a Mac?
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,324
|
Post by benoir on May 5, 2024 16:16:18 GMT -8
Interesting that the amount allocated to dividends over the years has remained somewhere around $3B. (was it $3.7B last call?). The increase in dividend is in lockstep with the share reduction.
Here's my wet-thumb-thrust-into-the-breeze calculation for buyback effect:
Outstanding shares were 15.4B at the end of last qtr. Let's assume PE stays the same at around 28.5. and EPS climbs to $6.75 on the current sale count. And finally lets assume that the $110B buys shares at an average of $190/share = approx 580million shares or 3.8%
So the new share count would be 14.82B. On this the EPS would be around $7 and at a PE 28.5 the share price would be $200 (at the end of buyback).
Another way to think of it is spread $110B across 15.4B shares = $7.14 per share of buyback growth, then add real growth.
Of course as 4aapl says PE is variable, so if the right signals are broadcast at WWDC then we might see a higher PE (remembering that the market is irrational).
comments/ridicule welcome...
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2024 16:47:22 GMT -8
Interesting that the amount allocated to dividends over the years has remained somewhere around $3B. (was it $3.7B last call?). The increase in dividend is in lockstep with the share reduction. Here's my wet-thumb-thrust-into-the-breeze calculation for buyback effect: Outstanding shares were 15.4B at the end of last qtr. Let's assume PE stays the same at around 28.5. and EPS climbs to $6.75 on the current sale count. And finally lets assume that the $110B buys shares at an average of $190/share = approx 580million shares or 3.8% So the new share count would be 14.82B. On this the EPS would be around $7 and at a PE 28.5 the share price would be $200 (at the end of buyback). Another way to think of it is spread $110B across 15.4B shares = $7.14 per share of buyback growth, then add real growth. Of course as 4aapl says PE is variable, so if the right signals are broadcast at WWDC then we might see a higher PE (remembering that the market is irrational). comments/ridicule welcome... The problem that I have had over the years is that the P/E isn't always logical, at least in my way of thinking. And we can say that I'm just not thinking about it right (such as reasonably taking into account the shrinking growth rate), because just like those that get stuck on a $200 share price, I might get stuck on a P/E of 30. And then there is the problem of TTM P/E vs looking forward, which has it's own issues of precision. In the end, it's best to just understand that it is a variable that varies. And like Gregg, I start to think of it as an Investor Sentiment Multiplier. Because really it just all depends on what multiple the investors want to give it. While we've seen that investors also don't really seem to value the company keeping a huge cash pile. Fun stuff. Dream big, dream green, dream big green! Long ago I looked for a floor at the big oil multiples, which were a P/E of 10. But then they went lower in ~2008, and AAPL got below 10 too. In the end you just have to realize that nothing is exact or a given, and give some big variable to it. Because not only are there variations that you can't expect (earthquake causes a 10% Q setback) there are others that you just can't guess at too well, though you hope that there is some logic and equivalence across the board, and that saner minds and valuations eventually prevail. I agree with Mark, that buybacks give you more control of when you take your gains. That said, while the AAPL dividend normally pays our bills, and I don't need more nor really want a 4.5% dividend, I wouldn't feel bad about a 1% dividend, and occasionally I am tempted by the ~1.5% dividend of the S&P, which wouldn't be a bad target for Apple either.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 5, 2024 16:55:53 GMT -8
I don't like dividends at all. Dividends mean that a company decides when you will pay taxes on [part of] your gains instead you deciding on your own. I much prefer share buybacks with excess cash. If you REALLY want/need a dividend of 4%, simply sell 4% of your shares [perhaps even to Apple] each year, it is effectively the exact same thing. Mark, I've read that "it is effectively the exact same thing"...but I confess I don't see how that's the case. My wife and I have 60% of our AAPL in our IRA's and have been DRIPing AAPL dividends since Apple restarted their dividend program in 2012. Since 2012, we've received thousands of new AAPL shares...all of my DRIP shares get sold to help satisfy my yearly RMD but she still has all of her DRIP AAPL shares which, with the dividend raised to $0.25/share, will bring her an extra $9,677.22 every quarter. And, of course, that money will buy her hundreds of additional shares of AAPL. Selling *any* % of our shares to pay ourselves a sum of money(if we didn't get a dividend) would decrease the number of share we own...but, with dividends we end up with substantially *more* shares in our IRA's and the same number of shares in our trust account that we had before dividends were paid. I didn't mention that the AAPL dividends in our trust account are used to help pay taxes, travel, etc. What am I not understanding?
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,575
|
Post by mark on May 5, 2024 18:34:07 GMT -8
I don't like dividends at all. Dividends mean that a company decides when you will pay taxes on [part of] your gains instead you deciding on your own. I much prefer share buybacks with excess cash. If you REALLY want/need a dividend of 4%, simply sell 4% of your shares [perhaps even to Apple] each year, it is effectively the exact same thing. Mark, I've read that "it is effectively the exact same thing"...but I confess I don't see how that's the case. My wife and I have 60% of our AAPL in our IRA's and have been DRIPing AAPL dividends since Apple restarted their dividend program in 2012. Since 2012, we've received 73,472.4 new AAPL shares...all of my DRIP shares get sold to help satisfy my yearly RMD but she still has all of her DRIP AAPL shares, which with the dividend raised to $0.25/share will bring her an extra $9,677.22 every quarter. Selling any % of our shares would decrease the number of share we own...but, with dividends we end up with substantially more shares in our IRA's and the same number of shares in our trust account. I didn't mention that the AAPL dividends in our trust account are used to help pay taxes, travel, etc. What am I not understanding? Let's say a company has 1,000,000 shares worth $10/share. And they earn $1,000,000. Dividend. Company gives dividend of $1 per share: Person A owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Person B owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Buyback. Company buys back $1,000,000 of shares. That's 100,000 shares bought back, leaving 900,000 shares remaining: Person A owns 1000 shares, and is happy with that, they now own 1.11% of the company. Person B wants some cash, like a dividend of $1000, so they sell 100 shares. Now they have 900 shares, or 0.1% of the company AND they have $1000 minus taxes. This is effectively the same scenario as the dividend case above.You can see that in the buyback case, each individual investor can decide how they want to allocate their capital, while in the dividend case, the company decided the same choice for both of them. Furthermore, if you reinvest dividends, you end up with a lower percentage of the company because you have to pay the taxes before you reinvest them, while in the buyback case, you own a larger percentage of the company because no taxes are due until someday in the future when you sell those shares. And the kicker is that after the company buys back the shares, sometimes the share price goes up a bit because there are fewer shares to split next year's earnings into. Maybe instead of $10, the shares are $10.25. That's yet another added benefit to buybacks, but it should never be the primary reason a company does a buyback. In my opinion, the only valid reason to do a buyback is if you have sufficient excess cash that no other investment seems worthwhile at the time (similar to Berkshire Hathaway onyl doing buybacks at certain intrindic value levels, but not at others).
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 552
|
Post by ono on May 5, 2024 20:42:26 GMT -8
Thanks everyone! I need to catch up with all of this tomorrow. From a glance great info!
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,679
|
Post by 4aapl on May 5, 2024 20:52:15 GMT -8
Mark, I've read that "it is effectively the exact same thing"...but I confess I don't see how that's the case. My wife and I have 60% of our AAPL in our IRA's and have been DRIPing AAPL dividends since Apple restarted their dividend program in 2012. Since 2012, we've received 73,472.4 new AAPL shares...all of my DRIP shares get sold to help satisfy my yearly RMD but she still has all of her DRIP AAPL shares, which with the dividend raised to $0.25/share will bring her an extra $9,677.22 every quarter. Selling any % of our shares would decrease the number of share we own...but, with dividends we end up with substantially more shares in our IRA's and the same number of shares in our trust account. I didn't mention that the AAPL dividends in our trust account are used to help pay taxes, travel, etc. What am I not understanding? Let's say a company has 1,000,000 shares worth $10/share. And they earn $1,000,000. Dividend. Company gives dividend of $1 per share: Person A owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Person B owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Buyback. Company buys back $1,000,000 of shares. That's 100,000 shares bought back, leaving 900,000 shares remaining: Person A owns 1000 shares, and is happy with that, they now own 1.11% of the company. Person B wants some cash, like a dividend of $1000, so they sell 100 shares. Now they have 900 shares, or 0.1% of the company AND they have $1000 minus taxes. This is effectively the same scenario as the dividend case above.You can see that in the buyback case, each individual investor can decide how they want to allocate their capital, while in the dividend case, the company decided the same choice for both of them. Furthermore, if you reinvest dividends, you end up with a lower percentage of the company because you have to pay the taxes before you reinvest them, while in the buyback case, you own a larger percentage of the company because no taxes are due until someday in the future when you sell those shares. And the kicker is that after the company buys back the shares, sometimes the share price goes up a bit because there are fewer shares to split next year's earnings into. Maybe instead of $10, the shares are $10.25. That's yet another added benefit to buybacks, but it should never be the primary reason a company does a buyback. In my opinion, the only valid reason to do a buyback is if you have sufficient excess cash that no other investment seems worthwhile at the time (similar to Berkshire Hathaway onyl doing buybacks at certain intrindic value levels, but not at others). I did similar math, but used that they didn't want to sell any, and so either were keeping their shares or reinvesting if they got a dividend. Owning 10 of 100 shares, a 10% dividend that they reinvest gives them 11 of 100 shares, or 11%. If the company instead buys back 10% of the shares, the person then owns 10 of 90 shares, or 11.11% of the company. The difference is 1.01 (repeating)%. It sounds small, but it adds up over time. And in most cases it's advantageous for someone to delay paying taxes. Switching over to roughly AAPL's case, with a 4% dividend or buyback (keeping the current dividend portion out for simplicity), and using fractional shares with someone initially holding 1 of 10,000 shares (really doesn't matter) Reinvesting a dividend after year 1, the person owning 1 of 10,000 shares now owns 1.04 of 10,000 shares, or 0.0104% of the company. Instead if Apple buys back 4%, the person goes from owning 1 of 10,000 shares to now owning 1 of 9600 shares, or 0.010417% of the company. The difference is even smaller, just 0.1634%. Compounded over 20 years, this is 3.3% Squaring it to make 40 years, this is 6.75% Squaring again for 80 years, it's up to 21.6% The numbers aren't earth shattering, but 3.3% or 6.75% extra doesn't sound bad. The much larger difference is likely due to (in many cases) having to pay taxes on the dividend, and so having less to reinvest. And for the cases where it makes sense to pay taxes early, such as taking full advantage of the 0% rate during a year, or wanting income while in a low or no tax state before moving to a state with a higher tax rate, you could always sell some. Thanks Lucky for encouraging the calculation. Though the difference isn't huge, it does favor the buybacks, for more reasons than just delaying taxes for the investors. It is a small enough difference that tax rules for Apple may more than negate the difference, such as the 1% add-on fee. But for most investors that likely is more than balanced out by the tax delay.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 5, 2024 21:06:44 GMT -8
Mark, I've read that "it is effectively the exact same thing"...but I confess I don't see how that's the case. My wife and I have 60% of our AAPL in our IRA's and have been DRIPing AAPL dividends since Apple restarted their dividend program in 2012. Since 2012, we've received 73,472.4 new AAPL shares...all of my DRIP shares get sold to help satisfy my yearly RMD but she still has all of her DRIP AAPL shares, which with the dividend raised to $0.25/share will bring her an extra $9,677.22 every quarter. Selling any % of our shares would decrease the number of share we own...but, with dividends we end up with substantially more shares in our IRA's and the same number of shares in our trust account. I didn't mention that the AAPL dividends in our trust account are used to help pay taxes, travel, etc. What am I not understanding? Let's say a company has 1,000,000 shares worth $10/share. And they earn $1,000,000. Dividend. Company gives dividend of $1 per share: Person A owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Person B owns 1000 shares, or 0.1% of the company. They receive a dividend check of $1000. They now own 0.1% of the company and have $1000 minus taxes. Buyback. Company buys back $1,000,000 of shares. That's 100,000 shares bought back, leaving 900,000 shares remaining: Person A owns 1000 shares, and is happy with that, they now own 1.11% of the company. Person B wants some cash, like a dividend of $1000, so they sell 100 shares. Now they have 900 shares, or 0.1% of the company AND they have $1000 minus taxes. This is effectively the same scenario as the dividend case above.You can see that in the buyback case, each individual investor can decide how they want to allocate their capital, while in the dividend case, the company decided the same choice for both of them. Furthermore, if you reinvest dividends, you end up with a lower percentage of the company because you have to pay the taxes before you reinvest them, while in the buyback case, you own a larger percentage of the company because no taxes are due until someday in the future when you sell those shares.Thanks for the detailed explanation, Mark. As I mentioned, 60% of our AAPL is in our IRA's so no tax is due on those dividends as long as they aren't removed from the IRA. Plus, I'm happy to use those dividend-purchased shares to take the place of shares I've owned for years when I pay my yearly RMD for my IRA's. And the kicker is that after the company buys back the shares, sometimes the share price goes up a bit because there are fewer shares to split next year's earnings into. Maybe instead of $10, the shares are $10.25. That's yet another added benefit to buybacks, but it should never be the primary reason a company does a buyback. In my opinion, the only valid reason to do a buyback is if you have sufficient excess cash that no other investment seems worthwhile at the time (similar to Berkshire Hathaway onyl doing buybacks at certain intrindic value levels, but not at others). I put a quick spreadsheet together to show the difference over 12 years between receiving AAPL dividends or selling shares for the same amount every year, assuming that the AAPL share price increased $30/year with no splits. Even though the total value of the shares using both methods is about the same after 12 years, I'm still pleased that AAPL pays quarterly dividends...that works best for me. The spreadsheet is only to give approximate values and I apologize for any mistakes.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,152
|
Post by Dave on May 6, 2024 2:02:30 GMT -8
China is an issue, many issues. Luca attempts to address it by pointing to addressible virgin markets with huge populations and low installed base. Knowing how quickly those markets can mature is tough to tell. Maestri: I think, Richard, you’re asking a really interesting question. We were looking at something similar recently. Obviously, China is by far the largest emerging market that we have. But when we start looking at places like India, like Saudi, like Mexico, Turkey, of course Brazil and Mexico, and Indonesia, the numbers are getting large and we’re very happy because these are markets where our market share is low, the populations are large and growing, and our products are really making a lot of progress in those markets. The level of excitement for the brand is very high. Tim was in Southeast Asia recently, and the level of excitement is incredibly high. So it is very good for us, and certainly the numbers are getting larger all the time and so the gap as you compare it to the numbers in China is reducing and hopefully that trajectory continues for a long time.The problem that I have is the Chinese leadership and their militarism towards others. Namely Taiwan. That one event of expansion would truly change not just Apple but the world.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,152
|
Post by Dave on May 6, 2024 2:05:53 GMT -8
The problem is not with the share buybacks or the dividends, as they both have their own advantages. The problem is with the taxes.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,575
|
Post by mark on May 6, 2024 5:11:40 GMT -8
China is an issue, many issues. Luca attempts to address it by pointing to addressible virgin markets with huge populations and low installed base. Knowing how quickly those markets can mature is tough to tell. Maestri: I think, Richard, you’re asking a really interesting question. We were looking at something similar recently. Obviously, China is by far the largest emerging market that we have. But when we start looking at places like India, like Saudi, like Mexico, Turkey, of course Brazil and Mexico, and Indonesia, the numbers are getting large and we’re very happy because these are markets where our market share is low, the populations are large and growing, and our products are really making a lot of progress in those markets. The level of excitement for the brand is very high. Tim was in Southeast Asia recently, and the level of excitement is incredibly high. So it is very good for us, and certainly the numbers are getting larger all the time and so the gap as you compare it to the numbers in China is reducing and hopefully that trajectory continues for a long time.The problem that I have is the Chinese leadership and their militarism towards others. Namely Taiwan. That one event of expansion would truly change not just Apple but the world. One of the primary purposes of keeping the Russia-Ukraine war going is to provide an abject lesson to China what may happen if they ratchet up their military adventures in Taiwan. Russia is being degraded, economically, politically, militarily, and mostly losing their world power status due to their military adventures. It is in the western interest to keep it simmering for as long as possible. China, having a long history, is generally very patient. They can take over Taiwan completely in a much easier, albeit slower, way. All they have to do is slowly seed Taiwan with China loyalists, and keep doing it over decades. After a few decades of that, Taiwan will de facto be part of China in all ways that matter.
|
|