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Post by CdnPhoto on May 29, 2024 2:55:10 GMT -8
AAPL is currently at $189.67 -0.32 (-0.17%) RSI is 63.98
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 29, 2024 2:57:09 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 29, 2024 2:59:56 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 29, 2024 6:09:21 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on May 29, 2024 6:28:06 GMT -8
Apple should do well with AI, but the stock is a lot more finicky. For a direct AI boost it will depend a lot more on people's reactions to announcements. I'm sure Apple will announce some good stuff, and probably even useful stuff, but it seems unlikely that it will completely blow people's socks off. But that's just not Apple these days. They're a big company, and especially when making big moves they are more cool and calculating, trying to make the right choice instead of one of the many tiny startups that can build and break and fix, or jump into one strategy and then pivot the next week if it isn't right. AAPL might outperform NVDA in the next 12 months (looks like that was the question on the video), but if it does it will likely be more to if NVDA is currently at the upper end of it's range, and AAPL is at the lower part of their range. Looking over a longer range, say 5 years, and not worrying too much about current company size or market cap, AAPL seems more likely to be in the 10-15 or possibly 20% long term annualized return category, while NVDA is more like 20-30%. The amazing thing is that this is happening while NVDA stock has grown so much, and basically has the same market cap as Apple. And while they have huge growth, income, and profit margins, there's also a lot of momentum and so much P/E ratios, with a huge following. It's closer to something like TSLA, where you just can't expect it to behave like a standard car company. And so at least in a little way, there's the X factor in it which can be distilled out to think about the GameStop principle, that with some rabid investor fans you just don't know what will happen or how quickly it will happen. Apple has some rabid fans too, both of the product and the investment. But it's a much lower percentage. How many stories and people have we seen in the last few years where people say they are using AAPL as their bank, where they store money when they are between other investments or when they want something safe? I just meet another person last week that said that, though he also said most of his AAPL ownership was through BRK. For the stock to really take off on a tear people will have to be really excited by it. And while it's possible for WWDC to get people all excited (Think sweaty Ballmer, with "Developers Developers Developers Developers") that's just a different path than Apple has chosen to take for a long time now, even back in SJ's days. Maybe that will shift at some point, and really they probably should, more for continuing to keep the excitement and get great new employees. But for a long time there has definitely been a mix of calm and thoughtfulness in the decisions and announcements, which some people take as not being innovative but which is really just being a bit more conservative in making their choices and announcements. It would be like hitting the home runs (but maybe no grand slams) but in a cool and collect way with no cheering going on, ticking them up and coming in for the win. We'll see how it goes. I expect AAPL will have a good year with solid announcements and a move forward in the economy, but that might be 15-20% from here, with 30% being a possible outlier. And while nice and profitable, that doesn't get the fans cheering like the momo stocks off to the side that might gain 50-100% in a quarter, or lose 30% just as quickly. It's just a different game, or a different gameplan.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on May 30, 2024 1:19:55 GMT -8
Apples silence the last couple of years has been deafening to investors. And that silence has cost its shareholders dramatically and caused many to lose hope and move their money elsewhere. And it could take a lot more than just promises to bring their money back. If the share price isn’t at least keeping up with inflation then you’re losing money. I’ve been losing money, with AAPL. Right now, my biggest regret is that I didn’t cash out more of my AAPL holdings and invested more heavily in Nivida than I did, which has grown dramatically. Thanks Tim.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on May 30, 2024 17:03:29 GMT -8
Apples silence the last couple of years has been deafening to investors. And that silence has cost its shareholders dramatically and caused many to lose hope and move their money elsewhere. And it could take a lot more than just promises to bring their money back. If the share price isn’t at least keeping up with inflation then you’re losing money. I’ve been losing money, with AAPL. Right now, my biggest regret is that I didn’t cash out more of my AAPL holdings and invested more heavily in Nivida than I did, which has grown dramatically. Thanks Tim. I wrote a long drawn out response to this, and then our internet went down for most of the day, and I took my engine apart. Basically, Apple is much different from 10, 20 or 30 years ago, but is pretty consistent in the last 1-3-5 years. It seems like you should sit down and think of your goals and expectations, and if AAPL isn't a good match you should probably sell a portion. 10%, 30%, 50% or more? That's on you. And it is rough to have to pay taxes all at once, but if it really isn't a good investment fit for what you are looking for, don't let taxes change your mind. It's a complex thing, and we never know what will happen in the future. I'm going through the same thing, a little bit with AAPL and planning on selling off 1-20% within the next 3 years, but also with my F150 that has a stuck open injector. And that's fixable, but it makes me re-question the long term viability and needs. And in that way it is very similar. We all have to make choices, and most of the time they are made while having plenty of unknowns, and no perfect solution. The best we can do is make the choice that fits us the best, and not worry too much about the downsides, while remembering in the investment arena it's not a heads or tails choice, and instead we can decide to partially move out of or in to a position. And if you change your mind, you can easily switch that too. Sometimes it's nice to have a fungible asset, unlike a house or used car, where each one is a little different.
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