aapl
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Post by aapl on Jun 27, 2024 2:17:27 GMT -8
Apple is up in the premarkets: 214.09 +$0.84 (+0.39%)
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jun 27, 2024 6:02:28 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 27, 2024 9:03:55 GMT -8
Probably a decent bet, with variances based on your preferences. It just really comes down to what you are hunting for. Personally, I don’t see either as “once-in-a-generation investment opportunity” from here, no matter the timeframe. But I can see both outperforming the S&P for some period of time. Nvidia might be closer to the end of its streak, but that may just be based on my investment preferences, and I felt the same way back at $400 presplit. It all depends on goals and timeframes. The Tour de France is about to start, here in Florence. They were introducing teams in a plaza with statues and replicas that had been there since the 1500’s. And a random plaza had a Beatles cover band last night. Fun times, but a reminder of varying timeframes and perspectives.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 320
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Post by crispin on Jun 27, 2024 14:35:30 GMT -8
I just got back from a few weeks in Tuscany and Cinque Terre, arriving from New Zealand which is such a comparatively young country I was also thinking along the same lines. I couldn't get over the fact that the stones I was walking on were laid a thousand or more years ago, and I'm standing there with my iPhone in one hand and gelato in the other... I can't imagine what the guy who laid those pavers would think. The Tour de France is about to start, here in Florence. They were introducing teams in a plaza with statues and replicas that had been there since the 1500’s. And a random plaza had a Beatles cover band last night. Fun times, but a reminder of varying timeframes and perspectives.
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mark
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Posts: 1,624
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Post by mark on Jun 29, 2024 18:49:04 GMT -8
Probably a decent bet, with variances based on your preferences. It just really comes down to what you are hunting for. Personally, I don’t see either as “once-in-a-generation investment opportunity” from here, no matter the timeframe. I assume it should be obvious to everyone that neither one could possibly be a "once in a generation" opportunity. Both Apple and Nvidia were "once in a lifetime" opportunities 20 years ago, but they can't be one again today. The reason I say "obvious" is because Apple is 500X over 20 years and Nvidia is 750X over the last 20 years. And that can't happen again unless you somehow think one company can become worth more than just about everything else on earth. Combined.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jun 30, 2024 1:01:13 GMT -8
Probably a decent bet, with variances based on your preferences. It just really comes down to what you are hunting for. Personally, I don’t see either as “once-in-a-generation investment opportunity” from here, no matter the timeframe. I assume it should be obvious to everyone that neither one could possibly be a "once in a generation" opportunity. Both Apple and Nvidia were "once in a lifetime" opportunities 20 years ago, but they can't be one again today. The reason I say "obvious" is because Apple is 500X over 20 years and Nvidia is 750X over the last 20 years. And that can't happen again unless you somehow think one company can become worth more than just about everything else on earth. Combined. Unless you factor in inflation. It wasn’t that long ago the very thought of a company with a 1 trillion dollar market value would have been considered foolish. But today we look at a 3 trillion dollar value as acceptable. “Never say never.”
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mark
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Post by mark on Jun 30, 2024 8:44:27 GMT -8
I assume it should be obvious to everyone that neither one could possibly be a "once in a generation" opportunity. Both Apple and Nvidia were "once in a lifetime" opportunities 20 years ago, but they can't be one again today. The reason I say "obvious" is because Apple is 500X over 20 years and Nvidia is 750X over the last 20 years. And that can't happen again unless you somehow think one company can become worth more than just about everything else on earth. Combined. Unless you factor in inflation. It wasn’t that long ago the very thought of a company with a 1 trillion dollar market value would have been considered foolish. But today we look at a 3 trillion dollar value as acceptable. “Never say never.” I don't think you understood my point, or I didn't make it clear enough. I am NOT restating that old "law of large numbers" thing because that in itself is nonsense. And it has nothing to do with inflation. If "once in a generation" is something that is SO GOOD that it way outpaces inflation, like Apple and Nvidia over the last 20 years, then "once in a generation" cannot possibly happen AGAIN for these two. It is simple arithmetic. These two had compound growth rates of 35-39%, or about 32-35% above inflation. You CANNOT see another 20 years of 32-33% above inflation because then the company will be worth more than everything else combined. And that's obviously not possible. For example, another 500X from here and the company is worth $1500 trillion. Do you think that is possible?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jun 30, 2024 13:46:35 GMT -8
Unless you factor in inflation. It wasn’t that long ago the very thought of a company with a 1 trillion dollar market value would have been considered foolish. But today we look at a 3 trillion dollar value as acceptable. “Never say never.” I don't think you understood my point, or I didn't make it clear enough. I am NOT restating that old "law of large numbers" thing because that in itself is nonsense. And it has nothing to do with inflation. If "once in a generation" is something that is SO GOOD that it way outpaces inflation, like Apple and Nvidia over the last 20 years, then "once in a generation" cannot possibly happen AGAIN for these two. It is simple arithmetic. These two had compound growth rates of 35-39%, or about 32-33% above inflation. You CANNOT see another 20 years of 32-33% above inflation because then the company will be worth more than everything else combined. And that's obviously not possible. For example, another 500X from here and the company is worth $1500 trillion. Do you think that is possible? Thank you for the explanation, and no I didn’t think that is possible. But just to for arguments sake, if you look at a company that was broken up, such as Standard Oil but combine all of its offspring’s growth, what would its worth be? So, if sometime in the future Apple is broken up into several companies, that all become very successful on their own, what would their total worth be?
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Post by hledgard on Jun 30, 2024 16:38:14 GMT -8
GREAT post, Dave ! ! !
Really good awareness and logic !
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,624
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Post by mark on Jul 1, 2024 12:50:33 GMT -8
I don't think you understood my point, or I didn't make it clear enough. I am NOT restating that old "law of large numbers" thing because that in itself is nonsense. And it has nothing to do with inflation. If "once in a generation" is something that is SO GOOD that it way outpaces inflation, like Apple and Nvidia over the last 20 years, then "once in a generation" cannot possibly happen AGAIN for these two. It is simple arithmetic. These two had compound growth rates of 35-39%, or about 32-33% above inflation. You CANNOT see another 20 years of 32-33% above inflation because then the company will be worth more than everything else combined. And that's obviously not possible. For example, another 500X from here and the company is worth $1500 trillion. Do you think that is possible? Thank you for the explanation, and no I didn’t think that is possible. But just to for arguments sake, if you look at a company that was broken up, such as Standard Oil but combine all of its offspring’s growth, what would its worth be? So, if sometime in the future Apple is broken up into several companies, that all become very successful on their own, what would their total worth be? I don't know exactly what its worth would be. But I do know that its worth wouldn't ever even be close to more than everything else in the world combined. Standard Oil is a very good example. The top 350 oil companies in the world, only a portion of them spawned from Standard Oil, are worth about $7T in total. And that's 113 years after being broken up. Even if Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, etc were broken into pieces, and even if the pieces end up valued more than the combined company, it will still never do a 500X again (or 32-35% above inflation over 20 years).
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jul 1, 2024 13:02:51 GMT -8
Thank you Mark , I've enjoyed this.
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