aapl
fire starter
Posts: 267
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Post by aapl on Jul 11, 2024 1:41:03 GMT -8
Apple is down in the premarkets: 232.69 -$0.29 (-0.12%)
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 11, 2024 3:24:51 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 11, 2024 4:56:25 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,230
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 11, 2024 6:24:57 GMT -8
They didn’t waste any time trying to take out those 230 calls. ☠️
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ems
Member
Posts: 99
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Post by ems on Jul 11, 2024 7:24:05 GMT -8
Opening up NFC might even increase market share for AAPL if there were holdouts not buying phones due to that. Hopefully won’t erode much from revenues as a result. I am sure Apple can spin their own wallets/solutions as more secure and trustworthy anyway. Who is going to install some sketchy third party wallet? It’s like third party app stores… and if banks pull out of Apple Pay as a result (to pimp their own wallet), well , time to switch banks in that case.
Kinda academic at this point personally since this only applies to overly-nannied euro crowd
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,230
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 11, 2024 7:58:16 GMT -8
This sell off reminds me of the good old days when we used to joke that good news (rate cuts) = bad news (OMG the economy is dying!).
BTFD!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jul 11, 2024 8:27:01 GMT -8
I see this as very troubling. Why should someone, that has invested a lot of capital on R/D to bring a new product to market, only to be forced to share it with your competitors. So why bother to copyright or patent a product? I know, being successful just isn’t fair.
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Post by nwjade on Jul 11, 2024 9:01:05 GMT -8
Rotation to small caps, Russell 2000 up +3.00% with interest rates falling. I'm not buying the growth for small caps will be there and thus changing the trend from mega cap tech growth.
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Post by duckpins on Jul 11, 2024 9:31:35 GMT -8
"I see this as very troubling. Why should someone, that has invested a lot of capital on R/D to bring a new product to market, only to be forced to share it with your competitors. So why bother to copyright or patent a product? I know, being successful just isn’t fair." The bankers who run Europe are trying to destroy the culture that FDR's aids built in Wester Europe, the society with a broad safety net and free health care in most countries is now ending. Europe is becoming a third world continent thanks to the Euro, open borders and resultant decline of the social infrastructure.
So they are applying the same "make it fair to all" rhetoric to any business but banking. Especially non-Euro businesses. We should be protecting Apple etc. from these folks who want what they believe to be equality.
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Post by duckpins on Jul 11, 2024 10:28:10 GMT -8
BRK looks like it is finally catching up to AAPL. BRK had great earnings and has AAPL as its largest holding. It has been consolidating since March. High was 430. Should break through that fairly soon if the Bull Run continues. Tried to use Apple TV to watch Humans, only season 2 or 3 available/ Odd? No 1? Couldn't get the remote to work. Had no idea the remote had to be charged like the phone? AApl TV interface is a disgrace. Why not use the scroll wheel technology from the old iPod to go thru multiple channels and choices rapidly?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 11, 2024 11:02:08 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 11, 2024 12:47:45 GMT -8
So, after 7 straight market days where AAPL set an ATH, we got a bit of a pullback in share price. Raise your hand if you remember earlier in the year(March and April) when AAPL was still <$170 and had share price drops. This is not that.
If we compare AAPL's drop to how a few other popular Tech stocks fared today, they looks like this: AAPL -$5.41, finished at $227.57 NVDA -$7.51, finished at $127.40 MSFT -$11.55, finished at $454.70 META -$21.99, finished at $512.70
But what should make AAPL Longs feel a bit better is to look at the % drops: AAPL -2.32% MSFT -2.48% META -4.11% NVDA -5.57%
All in all...not a bad day...*relatively* speaking.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,230
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 11, 2024 13:10:25 GMT -8
I saw somewhere yesterday, probably on X, that Apple had 7 straight ATH days, the most since 2012. So we were due for a pullback, especially when the broader markets overreacted to the fact that money (and margin accounts) are about to become cheaper.
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aapl
fire starter
Posts: 267
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Post by aapl on Jul 11, 2024 13:54:20 GMT -8
This sell off reminds me of the good old days when we used to joke that good news (rate cuts) = bad news (OMG the economy is dying!). BTFD! BTFD! I did...bought more than I sold yesterday.
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Post by nwjade on Jul 11, 2024 14:36:57 GMT -8
This sell off reminds me of the good old days when we used to joke that good news (rate cuts) = bad news (OMG the economy is dying!). BTFD! BTFD! I did...bought more than I sold yesterday. Whoa, prescient timing on your part
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 171
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Post by jz on Jul 11, 2024 14:53:07 GMT -8
They didn’t waste any time trying to take out those 230 calls. ☠️ CHAT GPT: Options expirations on Fridays, particularly on the third Friday of each month, can indeed have a significant impact on the stock prices of companies like Apple (AAPL). This phenomenon is often referred to as "quadruple witching," which occurs four times a year and involves the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. These expirations can lead to increased volatility and trading volume as traders adjust their positions. Here are some reasons why options expirations might affect Apple stock: 1. **Increased Trading Volume**: As options expire, traders need to either roll their positions into future months or close them out, leading to a surge in trading volume. This can cause significant price movements in the underlying stock. 2. **Hedging Activities**: Market makers and institutional investors often hedge their positions in options by buying or selling the underlying stock. As expiration approaches, they may need to adjust these hedges, contributing to stock price fluctuations. 3. **Psychological Factors**: The market's anticipation of increased volatility and trading activity can itself lead to more pronounced price swings, as traders react to or preempt expected movements. 4. **Technical Factors**: Certain technical levels, such as strike prices with large open interest, can act as magnets for the stock price. Traders might push the stock price toward these levels to maximize the value of their options positions. For Apple, being one of the most heavily traded stocks, these factors can be especially pronounced. The high volume of options traded on Apple means that its stock price is particularly susceptible to the influences of options expiration dynamics. However, while options expirations can cause short-term volatility, the overall impact on Apple's long-term stock performance tends to be minimal. The fundamental drivers of Apple's stock price, such as earnings reports, product launches, and broader market trends, play a more significant role over the long term.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 11, 2024 16:20:09 GMT -8
They didn’t waste any time trying to take out those 230 calls. ☠️ CHAT GPT: Options expirations on Fridays, particularly on the third Friday of each month, can indeed have a significant impact on the stock prices of companies like Apple (AAPL). This phenomenon is often referred to as "quadruple witching," which occurs four times a year and involves the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. These expirations can lead to increased volatility and trading volume as traders adjust their positions. Here are some reasons why options expirations might affect Apple stock: 1. **Increased Trading Volume**: As options expire, traders need to either roll their positions into future months or close them out, leading to a surge in trading volume. This can cause significant price movements in the underlying stock. 2. **Hedging Activities**: Market makers and institutional investors often hedge their positions in options by buying or selling the underlying stock. As expiration approaches, they may need to adjust these hedges, contributing to stock price fluctuations. 3. **Psychological Factors**: The market's anticipation of increased volatility and trading activity can itself lead to more pronounced price swings, as traders react to or preempt expected movements. 4. **Technical Factors**: Certain technical levels, such as strike prices with large open interest, can act as magnets for the stock price. Traders might push the stock price toward these levels to maximize the value of their options positions. For Apple, being one of the most heavily traded stocks, these factors can be especially pronounced. The high volume of options traded on Apple means that its stock price is particularly susceptible to the influences of options expiration dynamics. However, while options expirations can cause short-term volatility, the overall impact on Apple's long-term stock performance tends to be minimal. The fundamental drivers of Apple's stock price, such as earnings reports, product launches, and broader market trends, play a more significant role over the long term. Nothing about the size of the OI These aren’t big numbers. 60k-120k are big. 30-40k is just average. It might help move things. But the market ebbs and flows by itself. Sometimes it’s just standard market moves.
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 11, 2024 16:35:22 GMT -8
Opening up NFC might even increase market share for AAPL if there were holdouts not buying phones due to that. Hopefully won’t erode much from revenues as a result. I am sure Apple can spin their own wallets/solutions as more secure and trustworthy anyway. Who is going to install some sketchy third party wallet? It’s like third party app stores… and if banks pull out of Apple Pay as a result (to pimp their own wallet), well , time to switch banks in that case. Kinda academic at this point personally since this only applies to overly-nannied euro crowd For 2.5 weeks in Europe I only used Apple Pay. My wife used her card once, and cash at some farmers markets and to pay a room tax in Italy that they wanted cash. In Yosemite for 4 days we also only used Apple pay It’s nice not to need a wallet. And 2% back with the Apple Card is nice. I wish my wife used it for a ring she bought, and wish I could have used it for the ibis exie for all that I bought. But that’s just wishing for getting 2% back on some bigger purchases, instead of 1%. Personally, I try to use ApplePay whenever I can, if only to promote the brand. But it’s great to not need a card, and to feel there is some extra security. Especially when my wife’s card just had a $1 test charge that flagged security, and so she’s waiting for a new card. Todays action helps me enjoy a nice cold margarita after a few hot days in the Yosemite valley. But it’s only a partial backtrace of the past week, and though disliked should not be unexpected. Offhand, maybe we’ll see red for a while tomorrow and then near flat. But no matter what, my statement from the last month says things were pretty positive. For AAPL specific, I’m guessing there will be a positive run in the week before earnings. But we’ll see how the coming weeks fare.
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Post by benoir on Jul 12, 2024 4:35:35 GMT -8
Opening up NFC might even increase market share for AAPL if there were holdouts not buying phones due to that. Hopefully won’t erode much from revenues as a result. I am sure Apple can spin their own wallets/solutions as more secure and trustworthy anyway. Who is going to install some sketchy third party wallet? It’s like third party app stores… and if banks pull out of Apple Pay as a result (to pimp their own wallet), well , time to switch banks in that case. Kinda academic at this point personally since this only applies to overly-nannied euro crowd For 2.5 weeks in Europe I only used Apple Pay. My wife used her card once, and cash at some farmers markets and to pay a room tax in Italy that they wanted cash. In Yosemite for 4 days we also only used Apple pay It’s nice not to need a wallet. And 2% back with the Apple Card is nice. I wish my wife used it for a ring she bought, and wish I could have used it for the ibis exie for all that I bought. But that’s just wishing for getting 2% back on some bigger purchases, instead of 1%. Personally, I try to use ApplePay whenever I can, if only to promote the brand. But it’s great to not need a card, and to feel there is some extra security. Especially when my wife’s card just had a $1 test charge that flagged security, and so she’s waiting for a new card. Todays action helps me enjoy a nice cold margarita after a few hot days in the Yosemite valley. But it’s only a partial backtrace of the past week, and though disliked should not be unexpected. Offhand, maybe we’ll see red for a while tomorrow and then near flat. But no matter what, my statement from the last month says things were pretty positive. For AAPL specific, I’m guessing there will be a positive run in the week before earnings. But we’ll see how the coming weeks fare. Contactless payment is ubiquitous in the Great Southern Land as is Apple Pay. I can’t remember the last time I used a physical card to buy something, although I had to pay a contractor physical cash, a few days ago, so I had to use a card at an ATM. Felt so retro. I even bought a car with contactless EFTPOS using my iPhone the other day - just waved it over the EFTPOS machine and ‘ding’ it was mine. I think there was a time that the banks here resisted Apple Pay but it’s too embedded now. It’s a bit like CarPlay, everyone expects it.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 12, 2024 7:27:19 GMT -8
Contactless payment is ubiquitous in the Great Southern Land as is Apple Pay. I can’t remember the last time I used a physical card to buy something, although I had to pay a contractor physical cash, a few days ago, so I had to use a card at an ATM. Felt so retro. I even bought a car with contactless EFTPOS using my iPhone the other day - just waved it over the EFTPOS machine and ‘ding’ it was mine. I think there was a time that the banks here resisted Apple Pay but it’s too embedded now. It’s a bit like CarPlay, everyone expects it. We still have some places in the US that don't work with contactless payments. I think Lowes and Walmart. I'm sure there are others, but of the standard ~10 places we go on a monthly basis, that might be it. For our car a few years back I put a deposit over the phone so couldn't use "contactless", and the fees are too high for them to want to use it for the main payment. On one I wrote a check, and the other I did a wire transfer. I think our only odd thing was for a chocolate tour in Geneva, where we were encouraged to do a private tour for 15 since our group was 14....and go outside of booking.com or whatever it was. And then the tour guide my wife was working with felt the best method of payment was via an international wire transfer, 4 weeks before we went, for the ~$1400. That was a bit sketchy, and not something I would have done, but it all worked out. Like real estate fees, I'm just surprised in this day and age that credit card fees haven't come down. There were some bathrooms in Europe that I think allowed contactless payments, even though some were just half a Euro. If they have the same ~.0.25 fee + percentage, that meant half of it was taken by the transaction fee. But the simplicity of the transaction from the consumer's point of view was great, even for a $1 maxi pain au chocolat from a grocery store's bakery.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jul 12, 2024 11:59:28 GMT -8
So, after 7 straight market days where AAPL set an ATH, we got a bit of a pullback in share price. Raise your hand if you remember earlier in the year(March and April) when AAPL was still <$170 and had share price drops. This is not that. If we compare AAPL's drop to how a few other popular Tech stocks fared today, they looks like this: AAPL -$5.41, finished at $227.57 NVDA -$7.51, finished at $127.40 MSFT -$11.55, finished at $454.70 META -$21.99, finished at $512.70 But what should make AAPL Longs feel a bit better is to look at the % drops: AAPL -2.32% MSFT -2.48% META -4.11% NVDA -5.57% All in all...not a bad day...*relatively* speaking. This is a chart comparing the percentage of growth of Apple and Nvidia. The divergence began in January of 2023 and my guess is that had Apple announced its plan for the implementation of AI into its product line at that time Apples chart line may have followed that of Nvidia. ![](https://i.postimg.cc/Bt6yJqCD/temp-Imageon5-C5-E.avif)
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,624
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Post by mark on Jul 12, 2024 13:36:23 GMT -8
This is a chart comparing the percentage of growth of Apple and Nvidia. The divergence began in January of 2023 and my guess is that had Apple announced its plan for the implementation of AI into its product line at that time Apples chart line may have followed that of Nvidia. ![](https://i.postimg.cc/Bt6yJqCD/temp-Imageon5-C5-E.avif) Hmmm, do you really think Apple would have been worth $17.5 trillion now had they mentioned AI back then???
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 12, 2024 13:39:48 GMT -8
So, after 7 straight market days where AAPL set an ATH, we got a bit of a pullback in share price. Raise your hand if you remember earlier in the year(March and April) when AAPL was still <$170 and had share price drops. This is not that. If we compare AAPL's drop to how a few other popular Tech stocks fared today, they looks like this: AAPL -$5.41, finished at $227.57 NVDA -$7.51, finished at $127.40 MSFT -$11.55, finished at $454.70 META -$21.99, finished at $512.70 But what should make AAPL Longs feel a bit better is to look at the % drops: AAPL -2.32% MSFT -2.48% META -4.11% NVDA -5.57% All in all...not a bad day...*relatively* speaking. This is a chart comparing the percentage of growth of Apple and Nvidia. The divergence began in January of 2023 and my guess is that had Apple announced its plan for the implementation of AI into its product line at that time Apples chart line may have followed that of Nvidia. ![](https://i.postimg.cc/Bt6yJqCD/temp-Imageon5-C5-E.avif) Dave, it's difficult to speak to what *might* have happened...and you may be right. But if one looks at 5 year segments of % gain in share price, NVDA had already started pulling away from AAPL by the 5 year period 2013-2018...NVDA: 944%, AAPL: 101%...NVDA had 9 times the % gain...much more than AAPL.Although considering *total* % gain from 2001, it was AAPL: 14,507% to NVDA: 2,683%. AAPL had over 5 times the *total* gain as NVDA had. However, for the 5 year period between 2019 and present, it has completely reversed and is a blowout...NVDA: 3,690%, AAPL: 484%...NVDA had over 7.5 times the % gain of AAPL *and* a total gain of 107,600% Vs AAPL's 85,285%.
![](//storage.proboards.com/3493312/thumbnailer/QELzpHFBxUVjbXAeZw0e.png) These huge gain have, IMO, made all other stocks look like laggards by comparison to NVDA and, for the sake of AFB members who have bought NVDA, I hope the gains continue. As for me, I'm content with what I consider AAPL's more realistic 5 year % gain of 484% to date.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jul 12, 2024 15:16:30 GMT -8
So it’s not the chart that you disagree with? It is what it is. Then please provide an explanation for the divergence in the chart. And NVIDA wasn’t the only stock that was advancing so rapidly. But why was Apple so flat while all of this was happening? I’m open to any explanation.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,624
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Post by mark on Jul 12, 2024 15:40:47 GMT -8
So it’s not the chart that you disagree with? It is what it is. Then please provide an explanation for the divergence in the chart. And NVIDA wasn’t the only stock that was advancing so rapidly. But why was Apple so flat while all of this was happening? I’m open to any explanation. I'd guess that it was for a few reasons. Apple's revenue and profit growth were very low (even negative) over the period, Nvidia's revenue and profit growth were MUCH higher. Apple is a relatively staid company with a well understood product line (despite new entrants to their product line that aren't contributing much yet to the top or bottom line), and Nvidia is in the hottest new thing that everyone wants. Furthermore, Nvidia is in the b2b business and their customers are willing to massively overpay (remember my post about the comparison between Apple and Nvidia silicon a few months ago?) in order to be "first".
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 12, 2024 16:08:18 GMT -8
So it’s not the chart that you disagree with? It is what it is. Then please provide an explanation for the divergence in the chart. And NVIDA wasn’t the only stock that was advancing so rapidly. But why was Apple so flat while all of this was happening? I’m open to any explanation. Who really knows why Apple was so flat? Certainly not me. I have nothing to say about the chart one way or the other. As far as providing an "explanation for the divergence in the chart"...that's easy...NVDA's share price increased *incredibly* over those 5 year periods compared to AAPL... 933% compared to 101% and then 3,690% compared to 484%. No contest. I'm just wary of the market's tendency to chase the latest and greatest...and a stock that went from 2,683% to a 107,600% total gain in 5 years makes me nervous. YMMV For example, Monster Beverage, MNST, has a total gain of 126,975% since 2001...but the great years for the stock were between 2002-2005. Year 2002 showed essentially a 0% gain. But that year was followed by 125% gain in 2003, 322% in 2004 and 321% in 2005...it hasn't exceeded 100% since 2005...last year it had a 4% gain and this year it's -12%. Those early MNST investors did very well, very quickly. Both NVDA And AAPL can do very well at the same time and I hope they do.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,313
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Post by Dave on Jul 13, 2024 1:54:02 GMT -8
So it’s not the chart that you disagree with? It is what it is. Then please provide an explanation for the divergence in the chart. And NVIDA wasn’t the only stock that was advancing so rapidly. But why was Apple so flat while all of this was happening? I’m open to any explanation. I'd guess that it was for a few reasons. Apple's revenue and profit growth were very low (even negative) over the period, Nvidia's revenue and profit growth were MUCH higher. Apple is a relatively staid company with a well understood product line (despite new entrants to their product line that aren't contributing much yet to the top or bottom line), and Nvidia is in the hottest new thing that everyone wants. Furthermore, Nvidia is in the b2b business and their customers are willing to massively overpay (remember my post about the comparison between Apple and Nvidia silicon a few months ago?) in order to be "first". Thank you Mark for your description of why. I do appreciate it. I had forgotten about your previous post and should have tagged it earlier for reference. For years I have quoted Warren Buffet’s advice about “keeping all of your eggs in one basket but watching that basket very closely” to many people. And that is what I try to do with Apple, watching it very closely and looking for signs of decline. Risk and reward. When you lose the reward the risk is no longer tolerable.
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