aapl
fire starter
Posts: 267
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Post by aapl on Jul 12, 2024 3:27:05 GMT -8
Apple is up in the premarkets: 228.38 +$0.81 (+0.36%)
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Post by benoir on Jul 12, 2024 5:40:09 GMT -8
$230 in the pre market….
…… and tumbleweeds
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Post by benoir on Jul 12, 2024 6:54:20 GMT -8
$232…. Is everyone having a sleep in today?
Way past my bed time.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 12, 2024 7:15:04 GMT -8
Looks like AAPL is trying to make up most if not all of yesterday's losses. We'll see how we close.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 12, 2024 7:52:25 GMT -8
There have been bad times in the past, where a $6 equivalent drop was just the start of something much bigger.
AAPL, top techs, and the market are all above the long term average right now.
It doesn't seem like things are near the very top, but often it is hard to know in the heat of the moment, especially as upswings tend to make bullish folks giddy and even more optimistic.
The quietness while AAPL retakes most or all of what was lost yesterday is like a sigh of relieve. There was no real news yesterday, and there was no real news today. There's always something, banks or worries. But really, not anything that should really make these big swings. But things are going on, and there is a lot of uncertainty in the coming 2-6 months, AAPL specific, economy specific, and otherwise.
It seems like volatility will be ticking up. And though it seems like this should be close to the top for AAPL and the market, looking at the broad scope of things it seems like in 3-6 months there will be fewer unknowns, and the market should react positively as companies do better while interest rates decrease and spending increases. But some of those things have quite a bit of lag time.
We'll see. I am looking to shrink my margin borrowing, and though I see lots of positives going forward I think AAPL might be close to a cycle top since it actually feels fairly valued to me at the moment. I will be selling some, but will also consider writing some covered calls at 20-30% annualized growth rates, where I will feel fine if they are called away.
I think Apple has many good years or even decades in front of it. But on the investment side of things, I think they will have a harder time of outperforming, so will be doing some diversification into indexes (because I don't have AAPL like faith in most outperforming individual stocks), while likely still remaining more than 50% in AAPL.
We all have different timelines and mindsets. For us, as with some others here, we've been more than 100% in AAPL for decades. But it's time to whittle that down a little, whether that is down to 90% or 50%.
But for now, the path I see is for a good run while headed towards the iPhone 16 launch. Timing is just a guess, but I could see a replay of history from 5-6 years ago, with the top hit a few days into September. But there are so many non-Apple things going on, it's really hard to think there is any accuracy in that guess.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,230
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 12, 2024 9:48:52 GMT -8
Yesterday was a broader market overreaction to the marginal economic news. And also an overreaction by those analyzing it (e.g., "OMG everyone is pivoting away from M7 stocks!") Finishing at an ATH on an options expiry Friday would be indisputably, indubitably bullish. ![](https://i.postimg.cc/fLBRXmR3/Running-Bull.gif)
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Post by duckpins on Jul 12, 2024 11:52:50 GMT -8
Anyone have insight into MPWR? Chart looks good and lots of upgrades to the price level.
Off topic-Beware the Hair, Newsome is putting cops into Oakland to stem the crime wave by the same people who he created laws for to encourage a crime wave. Getting ready to make his move if Biden exits. Soft on crime is not a winner in the flyover states. I do wonder how the Biden situation will affect the market-will the instability cause a sell now reaction if he steps away? Thoughts.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,230
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 12, 2024 12:04:32 GMT -8
Well, at least those market makers had to eat ~45K 230 calls, despite their best efforts at the end of the session.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,845
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 12, 2024 12:45:54 GMT -8
Off topic-Beware the Hair, Newsome is putting cops into Oakland to stem the crime wave by the same people who he created laws for to encourage a crime wave. Getting ready to make his move if Biden exits. Soft on crime is not a winner in the flyover states. I do wonder how the Biden situation will affect the market-will the instability cause a sell now reaction if he steps away? Thoughts. I was just going to say how well we have done at staying away from politics here. We know that politics play a part, though it is mainly market wide instead of AAPL specific. Right now, the biggie is the unknowns, on multiple levels. The market doesn't like unknowns. There will likely be a bit of a discount, along with added volatility, during this presidential cycle just as there is in most presidential cycles, even if the magnitude may vary. There are times it is tempting to say more than that here, myself included, even when I am often not that into politics. But past performance has shown this is difficult to do. Let's continue to keep politics that aren't very specifically affecting Apple or AAPL off of here, while remembering there are a multitude of sites out there that are a great fit for political discussion. Thanks everyone!
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,624
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Post by mark on Jul 12, 2024 14:37:37 GMT -8
Well, at least those market makers had to eat ~45K 230 calls, despite their best efforts at the end of the session. I highly doubt the market makers had to eat many of those calls. The vast majority of the time, as open interest rises, there are regular traders on both sides of option trades. Every once in a while, a market maker might step in for a small number of contracts to maintain orderly trading, but never near expiry, and almost never in size. Options trading is way different than regular stock trading in this regard. That's why you often see wide spreads on options ... because the other side of the trade hasn't shown up yet.
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