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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 9:47:50 GMT -8
20: 434.52 50: 435.11 They almost assuredly will cross tomorrow. Thanx Now I feel even more bullish that 418 is the bottom and the. 430.
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Post by tuffett on May 16, 2013 10:03:34 GMT -8
We should implement a daily post limit. Would help cut down on a lot of garbage. I don't think doc and mav would be happy with that idea. This place is much funner with activity and posts from everyone. The ignore button work very well and the garbage disappears. Unfortunately, half the posts are from you and the majority of the other half reference your posts, so ignore wouldn't work too well.
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 10:06:50 GMT -8
Lets see if we can get more then 26 million shares traded. Volume had dried up in the last hour.
We seem to be making a second attempt towards the high of the day.
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Post by prazan on May 16, 2013 10:19:26 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful:
"The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback.
If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks."
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 16, 2013 10:34:25 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful: "The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback. If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks." From his computer to God's ears......
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Post by podboy on May 16, 2013 10:38:54 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful: "The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback. If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks." holy shit..
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2013 10:40:43 GMT -8
Interesting. My divy was reinvested at $428.54. Right in the middle of that rally this morning. Anyone else? Actually, mine is going to be reinvested in a Retina MacBook Pro. And beer.
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Post by lance on May 16, 2013 10:46:21 GMT -8
Anyone remember the days where the 200Day MA acted as the ultimate resistance to dips? It hasn't even been on the radar for all of 2013. I miss those days.
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Post by Lstream on May 16, 2013 10:46:35 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful: "The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback. If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks." holy shit.. This is right up there with believing in Santa Claus and Easter Bunnies. I sure hope people are not going to risk their hard earned money because they believe that this scenario will play out for reasons other than pure luck.
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Post by aapl4kiki on May 16, 2013 10:47:01 GMT -8
I don't think doc and mav would be happy with that idea. This place is much funner with activity and posts from everyone. The ignore button work very well and the garbage disappears. Unfortunately, half the posts are from you and the majority of the other half reference your posts, so ignore wouldn't work too well. Give it a rest dude. Use the ignore function and then use some discipline to disregard anything that get's copied/replied. Seems like you have trouble fighting the urge to read his posts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 10:57:08 GMT -8
This is right up there with believing in Santa Claus and Easter Bunnies. I sure hope people are not going to risk their hard earned money because they believe that this scenario will play out for reasons other than pure luck. I'd much rather believe in this than the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus
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Post by phoebear611 on May 16, 2013 11:08:20 GMT -8
WAIT - there's no Santa Claus ??
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Post by sponge on May 16, 2013 11:14:51 GMT -8
That is the issue I have with EW targets.
When I thought we would get to ATH by end of this year, I had a p/e and eps associated with those numbers.
Even if we have a strong 1st quarter in 2014, I cant see a new ATH in January or February no matter how big some new iPhone or product is.
The p/e would need to get to 16, but what would drive it from 10.6 today to such a big number when YOY TTM eps would still be negative.
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Post by fas550 on May 16, 2013 11:18:01 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful: "The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback. If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks." Been a few If/then situations since then I'm sure, although I haven read the actual post. I would verify that is still the prediction.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 16, 2013 11:21:35 GMT -8
Seems to me the market tries to price for future YOY EPS and the past growth doesn't matter at all. So it's conceivable that the PE multiple could rise significantly if new products come out that make investors believe in apple's future eps growth
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 11:27:57 GMT -8
Seems to me the market tries to price for future YOY EPS and the past growth doesn't matter at all. So it's conceivable that the PE multiple could rise significantly if new products come out that make investors believe in apple's future eps growth Ding...we have a winner! It doesn't matter what Apple has done, it matters what Apple will do. What that is, no one really knows...if something special comes out, we could sky rocket. If not, we'll probably hover in the 400's for a while.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 11:33:37 GMT -8
Been a few If/then situations since then I'm sure, although I haven read the actual post. I would verify that is still the prediction. Avi had 465 as the end of 3. Not sure if he's changed to a five wave count from 385 to 465. Assuming we're in bull mode... 3 waves to 465 > up to 470s then back down to 420s then rocket launch 5 waves to 465 > rocket launch This is simplified a bit, but you eat the idea
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 11:34:33 GMT -8
The p/e would need to get to 16, but what would drive it from 10.6 today to such a big number when YOY TTM eps would still be negative. Expectations of higher revenue (Guidance). The big boys buy for long term benefits. On whole they do not think in terms of quarterly, but 3 or 4 quarters out (and further). That being the case I think the following scenario is the beginning of the beginning (as Winnie would say). July's September quarter guidance is going to show resumed revenue/earnings growth. October's guidance is going to accelerate that growth. Then, assuming that China Mobile and DOCOMO have been added to iPhone distribution, starting in the March quarter (I believe this will be the case), January's March quarter guidance will sustain December quarter results. Without a historical March quarter slump, investor sentiment will elevate substantially. Starting in April 2014 the YoY compares will be very positive. This is what I think will drive ISM (PE) to 15/16 in the December quarter.
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Post by rickag on May 16, 2013 11:52:00 GMT -8
Pain range for tomorrow's expiration? Strike | OI Calls | OI Puts | 420 | 1,984 | 14,425 | 425 | 2,724 | 11,523 | 430 | 6,364 | 11,533 | 435 | 7,688 | 7,273 | 440 | 12,199 | 11,753 | 445 | 11,320 | 6,119 | 450 | 21,968 | 14,353 | 455 | 11,981 | 4,893 |
Pin between $430.01 and $439.99? or just make it $430.01 and $434.99?
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 11:53:10 GMT -8
Pain range for tomorrow's expiration? Strike | OI Calls | OI Puts | 420 | 1,984 | 14,425 | 425 | 2,724 | 11,523 | 430 | 6,364 | 11,533 | 435 | 7,688 | 7,273 | 440 | 12,199 | 11,753 | 445 | 11,320 | 6,119 | 450 | 21,968 | 14,353 | 455 | 11,981 | 4,893 |
Pin between $430.01 and $439.99? or just make it $430.01 and $434.99? Old numbers. Wait until tonight.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2013 12:00:44 GMT -8
Looking ahead to the next few days or weeks. Nice bounce back, and right before a potential "golden cross" event IIRC (even if it's only symbolic). Of course, MACD-h daily going back to positive in a short period of time would also attract some notice, should it happen. Another smaller AAPL bet for today. Only "active" trade I have right now.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 16, 2013 12:10:44 GMT -8
There is a Business Insider article on TC and what is expected for next week (speaks in front of Congress on taxes). "Apple CEO Tim Cook is doing a round of interviews with political reporters as a preemptive maneuver before Congress questions him over Apple's taxes." TC's quotes to Politico: "I hope to make some clear recommendations, and I trust there will be receptive parties there." "We don't have a large presence in Washington, as you probably know, but we care deeply about public policy and believe creative policy can be a huge catalyst for a better society and a stronger economy." “I can tell you unequivocally Apple does not funnel its domestic profits overseas. We don't do that. We pay taxes on all the products we sell in the U.S., and we pay every dollar that we owe. And so I'd like to be really clear on that.” "Apple is contributing in a lot of different ways to the economy, and we're very, very proud of it, particularly in the job creation area and the work we do to protect our environment." Here is the link to the Politico article: www.politico.com/story/2013/05/apple-tim-cook-congress-tax-91501.html
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2013 12:21:52 GMT -8
Why does the media keep forgetting that Apple has been accruing deferred tax liability this entire time? That would make Apple one of the most "transparent" "tax dodgers" in all of tech. Better than 8% tax Google.
IIRC - and please correct me if I'm wrong - Apple's true net income would be quite different if it could reach a better income repatriation deal.
Not sure about deferred tax liability vs. cash tho.
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Post by prazan on May 16, 2013 12:22:11 GMT -8
Someone posted a link to Avi Gilbert's May 3 article on Apple EW analysis in Market Watch. Please forgive me for forgetting who posted it. I read the article when it was first posted, and appreciated the reminder. Here's the money quote, for those who might find it useful: "The pattern for a 5 wave move has us targeting the 463-473 region in AAPL to complete a 5 wave structure off the lows. If AAPL is able to complete this structure, then I would expect a pullback in AAPL to the 438 region, but, ideally as deep as the 418-428 region in a corrective pullback. If this pattern plays out, then AAPL is a very strong buy, with a potential target as high as the 655 region, which is the 2.618 extension for wave 3. This should lead AAPL to an all-time high by early 2014, assuming we see this initial pattern take shape over the next few weeks." Been a few If/then situations since then I'm sure, although I haven read the actual post. I would verify that is still the prediction. EW makes my brain hurt. I'm not testifying for or against. I'm also not discounting it. Lovemyipad knows far more about this than I do. But The numbers are pretty clear. Call it voodoo if you like. But his targets have been hit for some time, so if it's luck, it's very specific and consistent luck. The past if/then scenario seems pretty clear. We hit 464 and change on May 8th, the lower range of his 463-473 target. We hit 420 and change today, in the lower part of his targeted range of 418 to 428 in a deeper corrective pullback. The if/then scenario for the future is always subject to adjustments, though, so I'm not selling one of my kidneys on the assumption we hit 655 anytime soon.
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Post by rickag on May 16, 2013 12:23:06 GMT -8
Pain range for tomorrow's expiration? Strike | OI Calls | OI Puts | 420 | 1,984 | 14,425 | 425 | 2,724 | 11,523 | 430 | 6,364 | 11,533 | 435 | 7,688 | 7,273 | 440 | 12,199 | 11,753 | 445 | 11,320 | 6,119 | 450 | 21,968 | 14,353 | 455 | 11,981 | 4,893 |
Pin between $430.01 and $439.99? or just make it $430.01 and $434.99? Old numbers. Wait until tonight. I just pulled them off of Trademonster @ about 3 pm. Don't these numbers get updated throughout the day??
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2013 12:23:15 GMT -8
AAPL actually hit 418.9 at one point, apparently.
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 12:43:40 GMT -8
Old numbers. Wait until tonight. I just pulled them off of Trademonster @ about 3 pm. Don't these numbers get updated throughout the day?? No. Not until tonight. Which is why I find max pain to be BS. The only time you can accurately look at OI is pre-market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 16, 2013 12:55:45 GMT -8
AH = ?
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Post by appledoc on May 16, 2013 12:56:26 GMT -8
It was just one trade. Back down.
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Post by rickag on May 16, 2013 13:00:40 GMT -8
I just pulled them off of Trademonster @ about 3 pm. Don't these numbers get updated throughout the day?? No. Not until tonight. Which is why I find max pain to be BS. The only time you can accurately look at OI is pre-market. Thanks for the heads up.
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