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Post by awcabot on Jun 4, 2013 9:52:06 GMT -8
TC better pull out a nice rabbit at the WWDC keynote speech on Monday. The Bollinger bands are narrowing, historic and implied volatility are very low. All of this is a harbinger of strong, rapid changes.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 9:54:11 GMT -8
Dissapointing action today How so? The 5 DMA of AAPL's daily trading range is ~$8.00. If today's intraday high holds, then theoretically the intraday low will be ~$446.xx. So far, the intraday low is $448.68. Both the theoretical intraday low, and today's actual intraday low, are the second highest since May 16s intraday low of $418.19, and well within AAPL's upward trading range since then. edit to add:Theoretical intraday low and actual intraday low ($447.39) are now $1.12 apart. We may see the theoretical low, and that would remain a good thing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 10:00:01 GMT -8
Yes, I was off...but still the average Chinese worker makes around $7500/year, which if they're looking to buy a new iPhone prices it at around 8-10% of their yearly income. That's too much money still. You continue to focus on the same useless metric. The metric you need to focus on is how many of ~1,200,000,000 (nearly 1/4 of the world's population) Chinese CAN afford an iPhone. How about 10%? That's not unrealistic and would be the equivalent of ~1/3 of the total population of the US. More important, the number of Chinese that CAN afford an iPhone is growing rapidly. There's no point in offering a less expensive handset, to address the 90% that CAN'T afford an iPhone (1,080,000,000 people), if you can't produce in those quantities. The question becomes where do you draw the line? I like the line Apple has drawn. It balances units, gross margins and ability to produce. After all, what's the point of lowering your price (lower gross margins), to ostensibly sell more you can't produce (supply chain constraints), when you make less for the effort? So you're going to completely disregard 90% of the largest, fastest growing country? Everyone talks about App Store stickiness, but what about Google's stickiness...what if the bottom 90% in China continue to use and know nothing but Android? When their wages do get enough to afford an iPhone, why will they switch to Apple and not just upgrade to the latest Samsung Galaxy S5 or whatever other Android phone is the "phone to have" and all they know is Android and already own Apps and are tied into the Google Ecosystem. Also, who says Apple is supply constrained? I sure haven't seen supply constraint in the last year, except for maybe a few weeks when the iPhone 5 first came out. Is Apple having supply issues right now?
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Post by Lstream on Jun 4, 2013 10:00:04 GMT -8
Yes, I was off...but still the average Chinese worker makes around $7500/year, which if they're looking to buy a new iPhone prices it at around 8-10% of their yearly income. That's too much money still. You continue to focus on the same useless metric. The metric you need to focus on is how many of ~1,200,000,000 (nearly 1/4 of the world's population) Chinese CAN afford an iPhone. How about 10%? That's not unrealistic and would be the equivalent of ~1/3 of the total population of the US. More important, the number of Chinese that CAN afford an iPhone is growing rapidly. There's no point in offering a less expensive handset, to address the 90% that CAN'T afford an iPhone (1,080,000,000 people), if you can't produce in those quantities. The question becomes where do you draw the line? I like the line Apple has drawn. It balances units, gross margins and ability to produce. After all, what's the point of lowering your price (lower gross margins), to ostensibly sell more you can't produce (supply chain constraints), when you make less for the effort? To further Gregg's point, look at the following graph from McKinsey. The amount of people that can afford small luxury goods in China is exploding. Average salary is meaningless. The day Apple goes cheap is the day they lose their aspirational status in China. They then forfeit their appeal to the most attractive demographic in my opinion. Note the following money quote. The full report: solutions.mckinsey.com/insightschina/_SiteNote/WWW/GetFile.aspx?uri=%2Finsightschina%2Fdefault%2Fen-us%2Fabout%2Four_publications%2FFiles%2Fwp2055036759%2FMcKinseyInsightsChina-MeetThe2020ChineseConsumer_fd6a761f-2b88-4e8f-a7cc-8afac03a88f1.pdf
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2013 10:02:27 GMT -8
Dammit, SPY puts beckon like Lucy's football.
It'll work this time!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 10:25:25 GMT -8
So you're going to completely disregard 90% of the largest, fastest growing country? Everyone talks about App Store stickiness, but what about Google's stickiness...what if the bottom 90% in China continue to use and know nothing but Android? When their wages do get enough to afford an iPhone, why will they switch to Apple and not just upgrade to the latest Samsung Galaxy S5 or whatever other Android phone is the "phone to have" and all they know is Android and already own Apps and are tied into the Google Ecosystem. Also, who says Apple is supply constrained? I sure haven't seen supply constraint in the last year, except for maybe a few weeks when the iPhone 5 first came out. Is Apple having supply issues right now? Yes, I am. In fact, I'm going to ignore 90% of the world's population, in favor of those that will pay my price, and still give me a respectable unit market share. There is a point between unit market share and profit market share that generates the greatest overall profit. Apple is walking that line very well. Unlike you, I do not worship at the [alter of unit market share at all costs]. I'm done with this discussion.
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Post by lance on Jun 4, 2013 10:34:28 GMT -8
Heading to 1600 S&P as I mentioned a few weeks ago is basically a guarantee. Good news AAPL doesn't seem to care.
How do you know when and how many shares Apple is buying back? When do they have to release that information? Or will we simply be told every 3 months at the earnings report the new share count?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 10:37:35 GMT -8
You continue to focus on the same useless metric. The metric you need to focus on is how many of ~1,200,000,000 (nearly 1/4 of the world's population) Chinese CAN afford an iPhone. How about 10%? That's not unrealistic and would be the equivalent of ~1/3 of the total population of the US. More important, the number of Chinese that CAN afford an iPhone is growing rapidly. There's no point in offering a less expensive handset, to address the 90% that CAN'T afford an iPhone (1,080,000,000 people), if you can't produce in those quantities. The question becomes where do you draw the line? I like the line Apple has drawn. It balances units, gross margins and ability to produce. After all, what's the point of lowering your price (lower gross margins), to ostensibly sell more you can't produce (supply chain constraints), when you make less for the effort? To further Gregg's point, look at the following graph from McKinsey. The amount of people that can afford small luxury goods in China is exploding. Average salary is meaningless. The day Apple goes cheap is the day they lose their aspirational status in China. They then forfeit their appeal to the most attractive demographic in my opinion. Note the following money quote. THANK YOU LSTREAMAffluent and Mainstream households will represent 58% of all Chinese households in the next 6.5 years, while Value and Poor households are rapidly shrinking in number. The growth market in China are those that CAN afford an iPhone. That's where I want to be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 10:41:37 GMT -8
So you're going to completely disregard 90% of the largest, fastest growing country? Everyone talks about App Store stickiness, but what about Google's stickiness...what if the bottom 90% in China continue to use and know nothing but Android? When their wages do get enough to afford an iPhone, why will they switch to Apple and not just upgrade to the latest Samsung Galaxy S5 or whatever other Android phone is the "phone to have" and all they know is Android and already own Apps and are tied into the Google Ecosystem. Also, who says Apple is supply constrained? I sure haven't seen supply constraint in the last year, except for maybe a few weeks when the iPhone 5 first came out. Is Apple having supply issues right now? Yes, I am. In fact, I'm going to ignore 90% of the world's population, in favor of those that will pay my price, and still give me a respectable unit market share. There is a point between unit market share and profit market share that generates the greatest overall profit. Apple is walking that line very well. Unlike you, I do not worship at the [alter of unit market share at all costs]. I'm done with this discussion. There's no need to be rude... All I was asking for was where was Apple supply constrained, which you alluded to earlier, cause it sure seems to me that Apple has supply capacity. I just find it funny that everyone here touts getting into the Apple ecosystem and if someone buys an iPhone, they'll be more likely to buy an iPad and iMac and so on. This also works with other ecosystems as well, which Google is quickly building. Why not allow more people in developing countries to get into that ecosystem before they get stuck in another ecosystem? Apple obviously cares about this because they released a cheap, lower margin iPad Mini because there was demand for it. It's obviously not the exact same scenario, but margins were lower and it was done to get people into the Apple ecosystem.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 10:59:18 GMT -8
So with a large call wall at $460, is that looking like Max Pain this week?? I'm seeing Max Pain between $450 and $455.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 4, 2013 11:33:26 GMT -8
So with a large call wall at $460, is that looking like Max Pain this week?? I'm seeing Max Pain between $450 and $455. It's Tuesday. That stuff is irrelevant right now.
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Post by tuffett on Jun 4, 2013 11:52:35 GMT -8
I worship at the altar of profit and growth. The growth is now trending down, largely because the iPhone is struggling (on a relative basis) internationally. China is extremely important, whether it be the top 10% or top 50%. The lack of a deal with the world's largest carrier in the most important market is troubling. I believe Samsung is outgrowing Apple in China. I'm talking growth, not units, and I'd bet a good chunk of that growth comes from the top end as well as the bottom.
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Post by sponge on Jun 4, 2013 12:18:24 GMT -8
I worship at the altar of profit and growth. The growth is now trending down, largely because the iPhone is struggling (on a relative basis) internationally. China is extremely important, whether it be the top 10% or top 50%. The lack of a deal with the world's largest carrier in the most important market is troubling. I believe Samsung is outgrowing Apple in China. I'm talking growth, not units, and I'd bet a good chunk of that growth comes from the top end as well as the bottom. I agree. I see growth starting in 2014.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 4, 2013 12:38:15 GMT -8
Affluent and Mainstream households will represent 58% of all Chinese households in the next 6.5 years, while Value and Poor households are rapidly shrinking in number. The growth market in China are those that CAN afford an iPhone. That's where I want to be. The top household income of the mainstream bracket is $34,000. How many $500 iPhones (the price of the iPhone 4 using today's exchange rate) would you buy with that income for your family? And that's just the top of the bracket. Apple needs one of two things to resume EPS growth: a new product line or a cheaper international market-only iPhone. I think they should do both.
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Post by Lstream on Jun 4, 2013 12:50:26 GMT -8
Affluent and Mainstream households will represent 58% of all Chinese households in the next 6.5 years, while Value and Poor households are rapidly shrinking in number. The growth market in China are those that CAN afford an iPhone. That's where I want to be. The top household income of the mainstream bracket is $34,000. How many $500 iPhones (the price of the iPhone 4 using today's exchange rate) would you buy with that income for your family? And that's just the top of the bracket. Apple needs one of two things to resume EPS growth: a new product line or a cheaper international market-only iPhone. I think they should do both. I think that people proposing cheap in China need to state how cheap. The cheap bar over there is like $100. And if you go too cheap, poof goes the brand cachet at the higher end. I don't think we can assume that there is zero mutual exclusivity in pursuing cheap and high end. If you pursue cheap, you will stunt your sales in the high end.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 4, 2013 12:51:52 GMT -8
Daily SMA-100 held on retest (so far)...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 12:51:53 GMT -8
I'm seeing Max Pain between $450 and $455. It's Tuesday. That stuff is irrelevant right now. I agree. That's why I continue to hold $450/$455 BCS
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mark
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Post by mark on Jun 4, 2013 12:52:51 GMT -8
Yes, I was off...but still the average Chinese worker makes around $7500/year, which if they're looking to buy a new iPhone prices it at around 8-10% of their yearly income. That's too much money still. Okay. But what does the top-10% make a year? And keep in mind that the top-10% is 134 MILLION people!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2013 12:53:36 GMT -8
Apple is most definitely brewing a "lower-cost" strategy for iPhone. I think we'll get a new product line geared for the entire world.
As far as price, there's always Apple's strategy in India as one possible way to go about things. And the lower-cost iPhone will have an appreciably lower cost, just not "too" low, is my guess. Kinda like iPod mini and nano.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2013 12:54:36 GMT -8
Daily SMA-100 held on retest (so far)... This whole div-adjusted vs. non-div-adjusted thing is frustrating, though.
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Post by prazan on Jun 4, 2013 12:57:27 GMT -8
If Apple launches a new, less expensive iPhone, I trust them to find the sweet spot between aesthetic appeal, technical capability, and price. Just because a phone is less expensive doesn't mean it needs to be cheap. We've all listened to CEO Cook often enough to realize he isn't interested in guiding Apple to cheap. But a more affordable phone that creates demand through superior design? I think Apple can do that. If they can't, they shouldn't. And won't.
The discussion about what folks in China can and can't afford needs to include the power of subsidies. The economic model isn't the same as it is for the U.S. Who wouldn't buy an iPhone at $99? Sales figures in the U.S. show most would buy one at that price. But at $500 - $650?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 12:59:21 GMT -8
Apple needs one of two things to resume EPS growth: a new product line or a cheaper international market-only iPhone. I think they should do both. I disagree. EPS growth shrank in relation prior year results. Those results were abnormal, and non-sustainable. If you compare current EPS growth rates to the 12 quarter period prior to last year, they are doing fine. We will be completely past that abnormal compare come July 2013 earnings report. Until then, people believing Apple has a problem are comparing peaches to watermelons.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2013 13:00:54 GMT -8
The book's still being written on China and smartphones. LTE coverage is nonexistent, IIRC. Fast data access is a big part of the "speed" factor and without it, iPhone 4/4S-level phones may seem like more than enough.
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Post by wheeles on Jun 4, 2013 13:07:00 GMT -8
Oh great, Apple considered to have violated a Samsung patent. What about all the Apple patents that Samsung violated and continues to violate?
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Post by appledoc on Jun 4, 2013 13:09:11 GMT -8
The top household income of the mainstream bracket is $34,000. How many $500 iPhones (the price of the iPhone 4 using today's exchange rate) would you buy with that income for your family? And that's just the top of the bracket. Apple needs one of two things to resume EPS growth: a new product line or a cheaper international market-only iPhone. I think they should do both. I think that people proposing cheap in China need to state how cheap. The cheap bar over there is like $100. And if you go too cheap, poof goes the brand cachet at the higher end. I don't think we can assume that there is zero mutual exclusivity in pursuing cheap and high end. If you pursue cheap, you will stunt your sales in the high end. $275-$300. I'm sure Apple could preserve an acceptable GM at that price.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 4, 2013 13:09:14 GMT -8
Huh? Oh, I see now.
See FOSS Patents for details. It's FRAND/SEP stuff. No way that stands.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 13:09:53 GMT -8
ITC issues limited ban on apple products
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2013 13:10:07 GMT -8
Oh great, Apple considered to have violated a Samsung patent. What about all the Apple patents that Samsung violated and continues to violate? Yeah, I'm so fed up with Samsung and the attorneys. Bloomberg is reporting that Apple could face an import ban on some devices after Samsung win. It's complete B.S. Apple is tanking AH. Down $5 so far.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 4, 2013 13:11:34 GMT -8
WTF IS GOING ON AFTER HOURS?! STOCK IS DOWN OVER 6 POINTS! Wait - I just read some of the comments....are you kidding me?!
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 4, 2013 13:11:38 GMT -8
Shit, Apple down $4 after hours. Patent news regarding Samsung.
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