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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 28, 2013 2:45:52 GMT -8
Well - it's Friday PIN day perhaps. This week the suspicion was that funds dumped the name so as not to show they owned it. If that's the case then next week should be up since it will be the start of the quarter they launch the new iPhone. Of course, we don't know for certain but try to rationalize the completely irrational behavior path the stock seems to take so often. Yesterday - GOOG Finance (of course) - ran a story of how AAPL executives sold thousands of shares. No one mentioned that they were in a 10b-5 program that is "preset." And yes, although these programs can be cancelled - chances are pretty great that when the Company made the decision to have its executives hold on to many of their shares, they probably grandfathered those that were already in programs. The media continues to drag AAPL through the mud on any little crumb of news and exploit it in order to make a HUGE story and attract eyeballs, clicks, ratings....whatever. You would think the general public could see through the bull shit but I guess that's hoping for too much. Also, next week is a short week - for some it is a 4 day week (4th of July in the US holiday on Thursday) -- and for many a 3 day week as they have either been given or have taken Friday off. So expect liquidity and volume to be light - which can exacerbate moves in either direction as we all know all too well. Good luck to all today ~ but especially to my favorites, the longs.
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Post by rezonate on Jun 28, 2013 3:18:01 GMT -8
In Rome today, watching mobile devices. Have seen a bunch of phablets & android tablets, several android feature phones. So far no Apple stuff.
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Post by rob_london on Jun 28, 2013 3:21:52 GMT -8
BlackBerry down 18% in PMT.
In the last quarter Apple shipped 5.5 x more smartphones than BlackBerry.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jun 28, 2013 3:33:09 GMT -8
In Rome today, watching mobile devices. Have seen a bunch of phablets & android tablets, several android feature phones. So far no Apple stuff. Take a stroll down the Via Condotti ... you'll probably find some there.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 28, 2013 3:45:08 GMT -8
BlackBerry down 18% in PMT. In the last quarter Apple shipped 5.5 x more smartphones than BlackBerry. I like waking up to news like this. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 3:46:03 GMT -8
You shorted BBRY, I take it.
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Post by osx10 on Jun 28, 2013 3:47:37 GMT -8
18 months ago the talking heads would be running a headline that Blackberry earnings were off because everybody is buying an iphone.
Today, we'll see the headline that everybody who wants a smart phone already owns one and there's no one left to buy.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 4:03:57 GMT -8
+1 to Phoebes. The window dressing should be over. The range is $390 - $400. $395+ has the edge but by a narrow margin. The media coverage of Apple is appalling. High profile company + Negative news = Eyeballs.
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Post by nkmho on Jun 28, 2013 4:11:02 GMT -8
BlackBerry down 18% in PMT. In the last quarter Apple shipped 5.5 x more smartphones than BlackBerry. W00t! Good thing I picked up a handful of puts yesterday morning. It had been awhile since I've played BBRY.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 4:13:50 GMT -8
In short: Eh, what's new.
AAPL has to show something different. Closing lower than the open 10 or so days in a row doesn't inspire confidence, even though one of those days was an up day.
There are some *cough* interesting technical levels to watch (not that I'm any good as a fundamentals type who tries to incorporate technicals), but as of now I'm just watching. If there's "good" news we're close to action areas and might get a few technical clues. AAPL is $10-12 from the intermediate trend low ($382ish-$385 depending on div adjustment); a few bucks less than that away from a potential channel I've been following (unfortunately, a descending price channel). So yes, Mercel, technicals can be as "simple" as trendlining price action.
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Post by terps530 on Jun 28, 2013 5:39:19 GMT -8
hey sponge so far yesterday's bottom call for is at least looking in line with all of your other predictions
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Post by appledoc on Jun 28, 2013 5:40:52 GMT -8
So close to that 200 week average.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 28, 2013 5:45:36 GMT -8
My portfolio ado about nothing continues.
Today, net gain on the AAPL "pain range" trade (based on Thursday reads). Around 50% from a very small butterfly trade. But meaningless against all my other "learning" trades in this chopfest.
Still have the put spread on.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 5:55:01 GMT -8
+1 to Phoebes. The window dressing should be over. The range is $390 - $400. $395+ has the edge but by a narrow margin. The media coverage of Apple is appalling. High profile company + Negative news = Eyeballs. Just wondering why you think window dressing would be over already?
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Post by lance on Jun 28, 2013 6:01:19 GMT -8
As much as people poke fun at Sponge I actually for once agree this is a key session today. AAPL is extremely close to to having a heavy fall or rebounding off this dip in this session. It has to hold the 200 weekly. That is basically the last trendline left.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 6:05:21 GMT -8
+1 to Phoebes. The window dressing should be over. The range is $390 - $400. $395+ has the edge but by a narrow margin. The media coverage of Apple is appalling. High profile company + Negative news = Eyeballs. Just wondering why you think window dressing would be over already? Do fund managers really wait for the last day to do it? I suppose some do, but it IS Friday and the Hamptons are waiting....
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 6:10:31 GMT -8
Mr. Market thinks if BBRY can't do well in the June quarter, no one can. I'm sure the media is riffing on this, but I stopped watching CNBC altogether so will have to learn that from others (not that I'm all that interested).
I spent some time last evening modeling the Sept. and Dec. quarter. It's going to all about margins and to lesser extent, the count of share repurchases (screw the plan of buying through December 2015!). If Apple can launch the next iPhone a week earlier this year AND have new iPads in early September, we stand a reasonable chance of a YOY EPS beat (despite margin pressure).
I'm not worried about December's EPS -- Apple can beat it with what has been speculated for new product all hitting the holiday quarter. Margins should start to improve as well.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 28, 2013 6:45:22 GMT -8
Of course we're going to play monkey in the middle today. Can't break below 385 or above yesterday's low. Ugh.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 28, 2013 6:52:43 GMT -8
hmmmmm....I cannot figure this one out. 1) a Foxconn prototype of a future Apple product? (Terry shows off an ugly prototype) 2) a Foxconn prototype of a future Foxconn product? It was at a shareholder meeting, so it should not be dismissed.
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Post by lance on Jun 28, 2013 6:56:02 GMT -8
Sponge may have predicted the bottom....... only time will tell
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 7:28:04 GMT -8
Just wondering why you think window dressing would be over already? Do fund managers really wait for the last day to do it? I suppose some do, but it IS Friday and the Hamptons are waiting.... The 'window dressing' began June 3, and was fueled by expectations that this quarter's reported EPS (my estimate $8.10) would be lower than last year's earnings (actual $10.70), and defensive positioning just in case September quarter guidance doesn't meet expectations. On top of that the selloff was exacerbated by Bernanke's statement of last week. September quarter guidance that indicates revenue and earnings growth (which I believe we will get) will re-ignite AAPL, although not until the week after earnings, and not as much as we'd like.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 28, 2013 7:33:31 GMT -8
Unless they change their guidance technique or we have a product announcement before earnings, I don't see how September guidance will top last year's actual.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 28, 2013 7:38:19 GMT -8
GOOG vs. AAPL
from a tweet:
Benedict Evans @benedictevans
Larry Page's turnaround of Google won't be complete until it launches a new web product that succeeds. Would be the 1st since Maps in 2005
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 28, 2013 7:49:24 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Jun 28, 2013 7:56:36 GMT -8
First Half of 2013 AAPL ends today. Everyone can agree the stock has basically been straight down the whole time. We are currently dollars from the 52week low. The question is the second half more of the same, sideways or up.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 7:57:16 GMT -8
Mr. Market thinks if BBRY can't do well in the June quarter, no one can. I'm sure the media is riffing on this, but I stopped watching CNBC altogether so will have to learn that from others (not that I'm all that interested). I spent some time last evening modeling the Sept. and Dec. quarter. It's going to all about margins and to lesser extent, the count of share repurchases (screw the plan of buying through December 2015!). If Apple can launch the next iPhone a week earlier this year AND have new iPads in early September, we stand a reasonable chance of a YOY EPS beat (despite margin pressure). I'm not worried about December's EPS -- Apple can beat it with what has been speculated for new product all hitting the holiday quarter. Margins should start to improve as well. Its nice to be in agreement with someone every now and then, although I am modeling Apple beating FQ4/2012 results handily. Guidance will tell the story. I'm expecting Apple to guide revenue minimum $38 Billion (which translates to $40 Billion actual results). Since this extended sell off began YoY Revenue growth has been: FQ3/2012 22% FQ4/2012 27% FQ1/2013 17% FQ2/2013 11% FQ3/2013 4% (my estimate) FQ4/2013 13% (my estimate) Any FQ4/2013 Revenue growth above 6% will result in YoY EPS growth despite YoY GM% compares.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 8:01:34 GMT -8
Margins should start to improve as well. I'm modeling FQ1/2014 GM at 38%, and getting $15.50 EPS against last year's $13.81. An improvement in GM would be stellar.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2013 8:13:36 GMT -8
Unless they change their guidance technique or we have a product announcement before earnings, I don't see how September guidance will top last year's actual. I model two different ways. First I adjust guidance by the average variance of prior guidance/results. Secondly, I average prior three YoY quarter growth rates tweaked to follow implied trend. Until Apple changed its guidance metric, averaging prior three quarterly growth rates worked quite well. Today, because guidance is so much tighter than it had been historically, I defer to the first method for quarters Apple has guided, and the second method for quarter's Apple has not yet guided.
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Post by appledoc on Jun 28, 2013 9:02:04 GMT -8
Let's see if the bullish divergence on the daily MACDh holds. I'll buy commons at the close for a short term play if it does.
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Post by prazan on Jun 28, 2013 9:35:03 GMT -8
Jeffries & Co.'s Peter Misek rates BBRY a "Buy," forecasting blow out earnings, and downgrades AAPL to "Hold." Good call, buddy!
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