|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 10:44:58 GMT -8
Gregg - if ios7 is going to be available on almost every apple mobile device - what is your logic behind more folks buying the new iPhone? Don't follow your logic but want to. I think the new iOS will help drive upgrades to the latest iPhone. But the new processor and camera will do more then the OS itself to drive demand. |
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Jul 15, 2013 11:19:32 GMT -8
i have a 4S, and will be upgrading, solely to go from 3G to 4G LTE. The only reason I wouldn't get a 5S would be if the the upgrades from the 5-->5S are extremely limited to justify saving $100. I believe there are a lot of others in my camp who became upgrade-eligible April/May, but figured to hold off for a 5S instead of getting the 5.
After getting a 4G LTE phone though, I'll be honest in saying it will be a bit more difficult for me to just auto-upgrade every 2 years.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 11:21:14 GMT -8
Gregg - if ios7 is going to be available on almost every apple mobile device - what is your logic behind more folks buying the new iPhone? Don't follow your logic but want to. I think the new iOS will help drive upgrades to the latest iPhone. But the new processor and camera will do more then the OS itself to drive demand. I really don't think the general consumer pays attention to what processor is installed...as long as the phone runs fast, that's all they care about. I doubt more than 5% could even tell you what kind of processor was installed in their iPhone. The cameras on Smartphones now are so good, I don't think someone will upgrade from a 5 to a "5s" just for a few extra megapixels, assuming the 5S is just a slightly better processor and camera. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 11:43:53 GMT -8
i have a 4S, and will be upgrading, solely to go from 3G to 4G LTE. The only reason I wouldn't get a 5S would be if the the upgrades from the 5-->5S are extremely limited to justify saving $100. I believe there are a lot of others in my camp who became upgrade-eligible April/May, but figured to hold off for a 5S instead of getting the 5. After getting a 4G LTE phone though, I'll be honest in saying it will be a bit more difficult for me to just auto-upgrade every 2 years. This is exactly the problem facing Apple and other high end phones...people are getting to the point, especially when LTE/4G is mass market, where the hardware itself is "good enough". Apple needs to focus on software and adding valuable content to drive sales. For example, they have a close relationship with Disney...offer access to the Disney library and ESPN content on the iPads/iPhones that are not available to Android. We all know Apple has the cash to make this happen...use that cash to grow the brand instead of it sitting overseas earning 1% interest. Or make Pages/Numbers/etc free on the iPad and iPhone and encourage people to start creating content on Apple apps instead of on Microsoft Word and Excel. The day is coming quickly that new hardware will not be able to drive growth...software/services will need to be the main focus. I do like the small step in that direction though with iOS and iRadio. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 11:46:24 GMT -8
If the rumours of Samsung getting an apple contract to produce the A9 in 2015 at 14nm size are true, I'm thinking phones released two years from now are going to be incredibly power efficient and have amazing battery life upgrades. That will likely be reason enough for people buying this year to upgrade again in 2 more years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 15, 2013 11:52:44 GMT -8
The sponge out forecasted me today
|
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 15, 2013 11:54:55 GMT -8
i have a 4S, and will be upgrading, solely to go from 3G to 4G LTE. The only reason I wouldn't get a 5S would be if the the upgrades from the 5-->5S are extremely limited to justify saving $100. I believe there are a lot of others in my camp who became upgrade-eligible April/May, but figured to hold off for a 5S instead of getting the 5. After getting a 4G LTE phone though, I'll be honest in saying it will be a bit more difficult for me to just auto-upgrade every 2 years. I also will be upgrading from a 4S to the 5S (or whatever it is called), unless my wife commandeers my upgrade, she does a lot more on her iPhone 5 than I do on my iPhone 4S. As far as the 2 year upgrade cycle, I expect IGZO displays to come out in the next 2 years and the probable increase in battery life will be irresistible. So I do expect to be upgrading again in 2 years. ......maybe liquid metal also coming, or sapphire glass (or transparent aluminum) for the touch screen, or larger screen and ? ? ? ? ? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 11:55:29 GMT -8
Jeffries is probably the least reliable source on Apple (on BRBY too, for that matter, given his buy call on it). It is pure white noise; annoying and it's not likely to go away.... Jeffries Misek seems to have made his predictions without including any iPhone 5 units being built, see the link below which has all the details of individual unit sales he has for the next 2 quarters, and notice he only has figures for the new low cost iPhone, the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 5S. Not a single mention of the iPhone 5. www.cnbc.com/id/100886541 |
|
|
|
Post by macwire on Jul 15, 2013 12:03:30 GMT -8
Barf close.
|
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Jul 15, 2013 12:09:02 GMT -8
Sponge. Respectfully - I asked Gregg not you.
|
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 15, 2013 12:10:18 GMT -8
burgess
I think either he or the article has a typo -
In the second paragraph I think the 5 million should have been the iPhone 5, as he stated in the previous paragraph no iPhone 4S will be made.
Really hard to read, the article has FQ4 build plans with no iPhone 5, then in first fiscal quarter starting in December he has the iPhone 4S in the plans.
Kind of a jumbled mess of an article.
|
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 12:18:42 GMT -8
I think the new iOS will help drive upgrades to the latest iPhone. But the new processor and camera will do more then the OS itself to drive demand. I really don't think the general consumer pays attention to what processor is installed...as long as the phone runs fast, that's all they care about. I doubt more than 5% could even tell you what kind of processor was installed in their iPhone. The cameras on Smartphones now are so good, I don't think someone will upgrade from a 5 to a "5s" just for a few extra megapixels, assuming the 5S is just a slightly better processor and camera. I was reffering to overall speed not actual specs. The iPhone 5S owner will be those upgrading from Android, 4, 4S. Between those three groups there are enough to drive minimum of 20% YOY growth. There will be plenty of 5 owners who upgrade. I am one of them and price is not an issue if the opportunity is there to upgrade. The camera is the biggest feature of the iPhone. People who spend the money on a smart phone will look at the specs and quality of pictures. Apple will market that and people will respond. Heck Apple did a 1 minute commercial just on the camera alone. |
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 12:21:41 GMT -8
Sponge. Respectfully - I asked Gregg not you. Don't worry he will respond as well. A bad close in my book but not a deal breaker. Anything above 426 is good enough for me. I think we will surpass 431 by Friday. Next Monday and Tuesday will be the days to watch. If we don't get passed 445, then we are in for another long 2.5 months until the iPhone 5S comes out. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 12:32:16 GMT -8
burgess I think either he or the article has a typo - In the second paragraph I think the 5 million should have been the iPhone 5, as he stated in the previous paragraph no iPhone 4S will be made. Really hard to read, the article has FQ4 build plans with no iPhone 5, then in first fiscal quarter starting in December he has the iPhone 4S in the plans. Kind of a jumbled mess of an article. Its definitely not a cnbc typo, as I found Miseks prediction with the same figures on other articles. au.businessinsider.com/apple-to-begin-production-of-the-iphone-5s-this-month-2013-7 |
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jul 15, 2013 12:38:56 GMT -8
Sponge. Respectfully - I asked Gregg not you. Don't worry he will respond as well. A bad close in my book but not a deal breaker. Anything above 426 is good enough for me. I think we will surpass 431 by Friday. Next Monday and Tuesday will be the days to watch. If we don't get passed 445, then we are in for another long 2.5 months until the iPhone 5S comes out. I don't think an incremental 5S moves the stock at all, until sales results are known. In fact, if all we get is a 5S in a refresh, it could push the stock down. I don't think Apple is a catalyst or event-driven stock any more. Unless they realease an obvious blockbuster and huge surprise. Then again, no matter what they release we can expect it to be critized. I think that proven sales and earnings growth is what moves the stock now. Not events like the release of a 5S. |
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 15, 2013 12:40:40 GMT -8
I just stumbled across an article of some interest. UMC joins IBM chip alliance for 10nm process developmentIf Apple were investing in fabs and UMC is under consideration, they might have access to a 10 nm process being developed by IBM and apparently UMC has had agreements with IBM on a 14 nm process since 2012. In other tinfoil hat conjecture, in an article on Appleinsider, Apple viewed as better off focusing on chip process development rather than fabrication there was the following quote. So in a matter of a few days we have Apple potentially buying into UMC, but no, now it seems Apple could be buying IBM's process development operations. Time for me to add a few layers of aluminum foil to my now rather large Texas sized 10 gal tin foil hat. |
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Jul 15, 2013 12:50:14 GMT -8
burgess
I'm confused.
He is saying the in the FQ4 (the current quarter we are in)no iPhone 4S models will be produced.
Then he is saying that in the first fiscal quarter starting in December (which doesn't make sense since the FQ1 begins in October) Apple will then produce 5 million iPhone 4S.
What am I missing? I am utterly confused.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 13:01:57 GMT -8
burgess I'm confused. He is saying the in the FQ4 (the current quarter we are in)no iPhone 4S models will be produced. Then he is saying that in the first fiscal quarter starting in December (which doesn't make sense since the FQ1 begins in October) Apple will then produce 5 million iPhone 4S. What am I missing? I am utterly confused. What you might be missing is that Misek is a complete tool - his reports usually make little sense and the best advice is to do the opposite of whatever he recommends. Yet for some reason he continues to get coverage. www.cultofmac.com/215736/a-history-of-horrible-apple-predictions-from-peter-misek/ |
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 15, 2013 13:11:56 GMT -8
Don't worry he will respond as well. A bad close in my book but not a deal breaker. Anything above 426 is good enough for me. I think we will surpass 431 by Friday. Next Monday and Tuesday will be the days to watch. If we don't get passed 445, then we are in for another long 2.5 months until the iPhone 5S comes out. I don't think an incremental 5S moves the stock at all, until sales results are known. In fact, if all we get is a 5S in a refresh, it could push the stock down. I don't think Apple is a catalyst or event-driven stock any more. Unless they realease an obvious blockbuster and huge surprise. Then again, no matter what they release we can expect it to be critized. I think that proven sales and earnings growth is what moves the stock now. Not events like the release of a 5S. I would agree. But prior to WWDC the stock behaved like before. News made it go higher. Weekend numbers along with what other cheaper iPhone comes out should move the stock. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 13:24:50 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Jul 15, 2013 13:26:22 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Jul 15, 2013 13:35:55 GMT -8
Don't worry he will respond as well. A bad close in my book but not a deal breaker. Anything above 426 is good enough for me. I think we will surpass 431 by Friday. Next Monday and Tuesday will be the days to watch. If we don't get passed 445, then we are in for another long 2.5 months until the iPhone 5S comes out. I don't think an incremental 5S moves the stock at all, until sales results are known. In fact, if all we get is a 5S in a refresh, it could push the stock down. I don't think Apple is a catalyst or event-driven stock any more. Unless they realease an obvious blockbuster and huge surprise. Then again, no matter what they release we can expect it to be critized. I think that proven sales and earnings growth is what moves the stock now. Not events like the release of a 5S. You are absolutely right. The 5S scares me right now. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 13:53:29 GMT -8
Gregg - if ios7 is going to be available on almost every apple mobile device - what is your logic behind more folks buying the new iPhone? Don't follow your logic but want to. If you think about earlier upgrade cycles (all using some enhancement of the original OS), iPhone sales of the new model have experienced significant YoY growth rates. iOS 7 is different, and within that different will be a perception (real or not) that it will be better. People with 2, or more, year old iPhones are going to be inclined to upgrade because of the OS AND a desire for the latest hardware, which (in this cycle) will include a larger/crisper screen and much improved battery life. Beyond that, I have read about the kinds of feature enhancements iOS 7 will enable that I believe a/ will require latest hardware and b/ be compelling. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 14:10:50 GMT -8
and much improved battery life. hmmm, that thought triggered another motive for upgrading. What's the half life on iPhone batteries? If I recall correctly, the more often they are charged the more capacity is degraded. Apple guarantees batteries to retain 50% of original capacity for 2 years. So what would your charge life be today, if it was now 30% less than it was when new? (really need some answers to this). Now compare that to a hypothetical 12 hour battery life. Would that compel you to upgrade? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 14:29:26 GMT -8
That's such a simple concept that it might be brilliant. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 14:29:42 GMT -8
I think that proven sales and earnings growth is what moves the stock now. Not events like the release of a 5S. Do sales need to be proven, or confidence in guidance re-established? The new guidance metrics were first used to guide FQ3/2012 results. July's earnings report will be the 5th quarter that new metric guidance standard have been used. That's more than enough history to determine management's ability to perform as they guided. So, assuming that Apple's June quarter result exceed the low end of guidance ranges, then gives FQ4/2013 guidance that exceeds FQ4/2012 results, we don't need sales confirmation to get stock appreciation. This has been my argument about AAPL's year long malaise since January earnings. Want proof of the market's growing confidence in management's guidance? Look at a chart of AAPL's trading activity from June 2012 through January 2013, then compare that to the period February to date 2013. During January's conference call PO specifically mentioned the metric change. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 14:42:03 GMT -8
That's such a simple concept that it might be brilliant. An interface that allows me to watch what I want to watch without commercial interruption could bring me back to TV. As it is now, I only watch Netflix and Hulu+. My best guess is that getting the above would cost me another $15 - $20/month, watching what I want without paying for commercial laden content I don't want. Others may pay more (more content no commercials), or less (more content with commercials), or some mix in between. In this scenario, and without time slot limitations, producers can more accurately target audiences for their proct. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 14:47:10 GMT -8
I think improved battery life is going to be a "sleeper feature" in iPhone 6. Apple gets it with the MacBook Airs; I think that is coming to the next round of iPhones.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2013 15:18:08 GMT -8
That's such a simple concept that it might be brilliant. An interface that allows me to watch what I want to watch without commercial interruption could bring me back to TV. As it is now, I only watch Netflix and Hulu+. My best guess is that getting the above would cost me another $15 - $20/month, watching what I want without paying for commercial laden content I don't want. Others may pay more (more content no commercials), or less (more content with commercials), or some mix in between. In this scenario, and without time slot limitations, producers can more accurately target audiences for their proct. The networks will eventually be very eager to agree to this when they realise they can get people to pay to skip advertisements, but still sell advertising within the show through product placement. |
|
|
|
Post by podboy on Jul 15, 2013 16:05:29 GMT -8
I was wondering if anyone could help me out.
I asked an apple developer to register my UDID so that I could download ios7, and he did it for free. Now does anyone know where I have to go to download it?
|
|
