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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 9:34:29 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 9:36:58 GMT -8
Growth in top and bottom line in IMHO is minimum for him to stay as CEO What are we to do with Jeff Bezos...lol
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 9:43:59 GMT -8
Growth in top and bottom line in IMHO is minimum for him to stay as CEO What are we to do with Jeff Bezos...lol Bezos is given an indefinite pass on results...because "in the future" he will control the world through Amazon. Some day the future will arrive....so cut him some slack.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 22, 2013 9:44:57 GMT -8
99% of the S&P 500 would gladly take such a "bad quarter" anytime. Let the naysayers have their moment....such as it is. This doesn't bother me at all. Never more than now, it isn't about the past its about the......next......two....quarters.. guidance... An Aria, Red is singing my Aria. My ears rejoice at the sound. LOL...you have obviously never heard me sing in real life. It sounds more like Microsofts's conference call highlights..
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 9:54:47 GMT -8
I'd like to share thoughts on an observation re: share count. I'm looking for some feedback.
Observation Share count as described in Apple's latest 10Q is: Basic . 936.596 Million Shares Diluted 947.059 Million Shares
Share Count as described by Finviz is: Share Float ........ 936.760 Million Shares Share Outstanding 939.630 Million Shares
First of all, is Basic (as reported by Apple March 30, 2013) the same thing as Share Float (as reported by Finviz July 22, 2013)?
936.596 Million Shares 936.760 Million Shares
If yes, then is Diluted (as reported by Apple) the same thing as Shares Outstanding (as reported by Finviz)?
947.059 Million Shares 939.630 Million Shares
Finviz updates Share count throughout the quarter. Could the Delta between Apple's Diluted and Finviz's Shares Outstanding be indicative of the quantity of Shares bought back by Apple through the quarter?
If yes, then Apple isn't buying publicly traded shares, but rather is reducing Dilution (Shares that are obligated but not yet traded). Could this be why Apple's buyback isn't showing up in daily trading volume?
Why would Apple buy back the Dilution vs Basic? Because it isn't bound by rules on what/how to pay for them. Could this be Apple's solution to grants made but now not worth as much as when granted?
The impact, if true, to my EPS estimate is 3¢.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 9:58:36 GMT -8
What are we to do with Jeff Bezos...lol Bezos is given an indefinite pass on results...because "in the future" he will control the world through Amazon. Some day the future will arrive....so cut him some slack. Double the lol, double the fun...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 10:01:21 GMT -8
Growth in top and bottom line in IMHO is minimum for him to stay as CEO In what time frame for each and both?
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Post by lance on Jul 22, 2013 10:18:39 GMT -8
Gregg - For FY2014 they better make more profits and higher revenues than FY2013. Otherwise he is not growing the company and wasting investors time. IMHO if you can't grow the best company you shouldn't be running it. He gets a pass this year cause margin compression, but investors should expect at minimum revenue and profit growth for the year. If he can't produce it someone else can.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 10:34:23 GMT -8
Gregg - For FY2014 they better make more profits and higher revenues than FY2013. Otherwise he is not growing the company and wasting investors time. IMHO if you can't grow the best company you shouldn't be running it. He gets a pass this year cause margin compression, but investors should expect at minimum revenue and profit growth for the year. If he can't produce it someone else can. They should, but history tells us that Shareholders are more forgiving than bloggers. Just look at how long Ballmer, Dell, Bezos, and many others have survived the scenario you describe as reason for the guillotine. TC isn't going to get sacked, even under your worst case scenario. The reason is simple. Who do you replace him with?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 10:41:41 GMT -8
Funny how capital return programs address shareholder return and "obligations" to shareholders when a company is transitioning its growth strategy, isn't it.
Note that last Board vote, too.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 10:43:22 GMT -8
AAPL up so far. I'll take it. Even though Tuesday AH session really sets the tone.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 22, 2013 10:45:52 GMT -8
Gregg - For FY2014 they better make more profits and higher revenues than FY2013. Otherwise he is not growing the company and wasting investors time. IMHO if you can't grow the best company you shouldn't be running it. He gets a pass this year cause margin compression, but investors should expect at minimum revenue and profit growth for the year. If he can't produce it someone else can. And who could be that someone else? Phil Schiller seems like the immediate best choice. He's been dedicated to Apple for many many years and is also more aggressive in standing up for the company.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 10:53:43 GMT -8
There are two reasons to sack AAPL's management, and only one of them makes half sense
1) Apple failed to warn us of the "lean years" in growth ahead. Uh...sure.
2) Apple didn't provide either sufficient warning or some additional hinting that GM could not be sustained at the 40%+ level and that over time, they would be more aggressive on this front. Considering Amazon and Netflix AND Apple putting in a MASSIVE buyback/dividend program (aka "paid to wait"), this is more like a quibble when you put it into the broader market context. As you kinda should. ;D
The best companies plan many years ahead, not quarter to quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 11:10:45 GMT -8
Gregg - For FY2014 they better make more profits and higher revenues than FY2013. Otherwise he is not growing the company and wasting investors time. IMHO if you can't grow the best company you shouldn't be running it. He gets a pass this year cause margin compression, but investors should expect at minimum revenue and profit growth for the year. If he can't produce it someone else can. And who could be that someone else? Phil Schiller seems like the immediate best choice. He's been dedicated to Apple for many many years and is also more aggressive in standing up for the company. You didn't mention his vision or managerial skills. Both much more important than length of service, dedication and willingness to stand up for the Company.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 11:12:15 GMT -8
The best companies plan many years ahead, not quarter to quarter. Voila. Give that man a kewpie doll.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 11:17:11 GMT -8
TC isn't going to get sacked, even under your worst case scenario. The reason is simple. Who do you replace him with? Isn't it obvious? Sponge. Sponge has an incredible passion for Apple/AAPL. Controlling that passion is difficult for him. If you understand that, you'll find that he's really a nice guy that gets carried away in his enthusiasm. He isn't deserving of derision.
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Post by rickag on Jul 22, 2013 11:19:26 GMT -8
I'd like to share thoughts on an observation re: share count. I'm looking for some feedback. ObservationShare count as described in Apple's latest 10Q is: Basic . 936.596 Million Shares Diluted 947.059 Million Shares Share Count as described by Finviz is: Share Float ........ 936.760 Million Shares Share Outstanding 939.630 Million Shares First of all, is Basic (as reported by Apple March 30, 2013) the same thing as Share Float (as reported by Finviz July 22, 2013)? 936.596 Million Shares 936.760 Million Shares If yes, then is Diluted (as reported by Apple) the same thing as Shares Outstanding (as reported by Finviz)? 947.059 Million Shares 939.630 Million Shares Finviz updates Share count throughout the quarter. Could the Delta between Apple's Diluted and Finviz's Shares Outstanding be indicative of the quantity of Shares bought back by Apple through the quarter? If yes, then Apple isn't buying publicly traded shares, but rather is reducing Dilution (Shares that are obligated but not yet traded). Could this be why Apple's buyback isn't showing up in daily trading volume? Why would Apple buy back the Dilution vs Basic? Because it isn't bound by rules on what/how to pay for them. Could this be Apple's solution to grants made but now not worth as much as when granted? The impact, if true, to my EPS estimate is 3¢. I can't find it but I think Float = Basic. Also noted that short float is 2.96%, that is 27.8 million shares sold short. Short Float Short float is the percent of a stock's float that is sold short. Selling a stock short is a way to profit from a stock's fall in price. To calculate a stock's short float, you have to find the number of shares of a stock and divide it by the size of the float. For example, a stock has a float of 100 shares, and 20 of those shares are held short. To find the short float, you have to simply divide 20 shares by 100 shares and find the short float is 20 percent. EDIT: the fully diluted shares include total number of shares that would be outstanding if all possible sources of conversion, such as convertible bonds and stock options, were exercised. Outstanding shares include restricted shares owned by the company's officers and insiders, as well as those held by the public. So the large difference between Diluted and Outstanding may be the fact that diluted contains stock options while outstanding only includes restricted stocks. I am confused - this indicates Apple hasn't really been buying back much stock at all. Or Finviz doesn't update outstanding shares or diluted shares during the quarter.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 22, 2013 11:28:33 GMT -8
Sponge has an incredible passion for Apple/AAPL. Controlling that passion is difficult for him. If you understand that, you'll find that he's really a nice guy that gets carried away in his enthusiasm. He isn't deserving of derision. Point taken - deleted the post.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 12:04:11 GMT -8
"NFLX". Survey sayyyyyyyysss... The "funny" thing is, it's an EPS beat, though there's still plenty of info to digest. Was it the "priced for perfection" aspect? The in-line revs? The EPS guidance? www.cnbc.com/id/100900559(Didn't place any bets. I might not for AMZN either.)
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 12:26:45 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Jul 22, 2013 12:44:12 GMT -8
I think the world would be a better place if PED stopped publishing the independent analyst numbers. No one uses them for anything anyway. These guys just end up as canon fodder for this whole smack down thing. Comes across as a big side show. Who bases investment decisions on this stuff anyway?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 12:48:23 GMT -8
Call it "tradition" at this point. One big problem is that the independents were wrong at the wrong time. If the independents acquitted themselves better, there wouldn't be a "cannon fodder" element. It's a shame that really bad outliers still present themselves, though. $8.70 EPS? (Sorry pats, IMHO that's way over what anyone can expect.) 38.5% GM? (When Oppenheimer changed the guidance methodology, and then reported GM at the lowest point on the guidance range for the first time in forever?) That's not good.
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 12:59:09 GMT -8
Asymco gave PED his numbers, but he's charging $20 for an iPad-only "PadCast" with the full graphs-and-commentary treatment.
Which is his absolute right to do of course, but I do wonder a bit about the timing and the amount of interest, since the info has a short shelf life at this point.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 22, 2013 13:25:24 GMT -8
Asymco gave PED his numbers, but he's charging $20 for an iPad-only "PadCast" with the full graphs-and-commentary treatment. Which is his absolute right to do of course, but I do wonder a bit about the timing and the amount of interest, since the info has a short shelf life at this point. HORACE has a new podcast. HEREI think he is using a Male SIRI voice in his introductory remarks on his podcast. What do you think?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 22, 2013 13:25:56 GMT -8
Don't know what it says, but with that intro, I ain't clickin. Sounds like link bait to me. +1
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Post by Mav on Jul 22, 2013 13:35:38 GMT -8
Smart article (via Gruber): www.tuaw.com/2013/07/22/iphone-activations-on-verizon-grew-41-percent-year-over-year-an/My iPhone estimates were specifically adjusted to reflect that "counter-narrative". It'd be quite something for a bellwether carrier (even one rumored to SELL TONS OF IPHONES OR ELSE) to grow activations _that much_ in a transition quarter without it being an indication of, well, growth? Verizon isn't the friendliest of carriers to Apple (they're the home of Droid after all), and iPhone has to contend with the very latest and greatest on that carrier. Sure, there's growth mitigation factors like Europe and pricing worldwide, but that's why my YOY growth estimate isn't 40%. If Apple sellthrough compares or a fluke Verizon outlier quarter prove me wrong, they do.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 13:51:10 GMT -8
Call it "tradition" at this point. One big problem is that the independents were wrong at the wrong time But they were all wrong for the same reason. Getting that reason behind them (into the history books) has grouped both the independents and Pro estimates closer together.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 13:58:38 GMT -8
I communicated with PED about Goldman. Goldman is not PED's boss, as you would expect an editor to be, but rather, "a young impressionable reporter who -- like much of the press -- has been on an anti-Apple kick since the stock started falling." I offered my services as an Apple/AAPL mentor to David. I doubt he'll take me up on that.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 14:03:48 GMT -8
Smart article (via Gruber): www.tuaw.com/2013/07/22/iphone-activations-on-verizon-grew-41-percent-year-over-year-an/My iPhone estimates were specifically adjusted to reflect that "counter-narrative". It'd be quite something for a bellwether carrier (even one rumored to SELL TONS OF IPHONES OR ELSE) to grow activations _that much_ in a transition quarter without it being an indication of, well, growth? Verizon isn't the friendliest of carriers to Apple (they're the home of Droid after all), and iPhone has to contend with the very latest and greatest on that carrier. Sure, there's growth mitigation factors like Europe and pricing worldwide, but that's why my YOY growth estimate isn't 40%. If Apple sellthrough compares or a fluke Verizon outlier quarter prove me wrong, they do. I liked this part.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 14:06:42 GMT -8
Asymco gave PED his numbers, but he's charging $20 for an iPad-only "PadCast" with the full graphs-and-commentary treatment. Which is his absolute right to do of course, but I do wonder a bit about the timing and the amount of interest, since the info has a short shelf life at this point. As a forecaster of Apple's financials Horace gets a C+ from me. Analyzing market factors and specific trend analysis he gets an A+.
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