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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 13:45:19 GMT -8
Better be, or what? There should've been a decent iPad number this quarter. And yet. Sub 10M iPad number? It may not be the iPhone, but the iPad contributes to revs and earnings too. Maybe I'm the only one, but I am extremely worried about this quarter.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 13:46:47 GMT -8
Back to school will help iPad.
New phones are coming. This next quarter looks pretty solid
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 13:49:25 GMT -8
Apple is saving $67 million on their upcoming dividend payment due to the reduced share count.
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Post by moltenfire on Jul 23, 2013 13:50:48 GMT -8
ASPs are down for iPhones: Saw significant growth in lower price point YOY (aka iPhone 4) If Apple does a lot better in the lower end, then ASPs would be down We're selling more iPhone 4 this quarter than 3GS in year ago quarter A product has the highest mix during its initial few months of sales; so a natural seasonal decline in the product cycle is expected
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 13:52:57 GMT -8
Better be, or what? There should've been a decent iPad number this quarter. And yet. Sub 10M iPad number? It may not be the iPhone, but the iPad contributes to revs and earnings too. Maybe I'm the only one, but I am extremely worried about this quarter. why so worried? given what apple just reported compared to their guidance for Q3, Q4 guidance implies both a sequential and year-on-year increase - why would you be extremely worried about that? strictly using apples Q4 guidance, along with the share count reduction - EPS should be a lot closer on an annual compare than Q2 & Q3 were.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 13:54:35 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 13:56:21 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum? Yep, that's what I heard...imagine what AAPL would be without all these shares being repurchased.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 13:57:38 GMT -8
it looks like the mini sell off from $440 in after hours was when a cnbc reporter mistakingly said that TC said new products in October (when he was actually referring to October earnings report) - doesn't look like the reporter corrected the mistake, so the new products in October meme might keep us lower.
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Post by po1nt on Jul 23, 2013 13:59:57 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum? Yep, that's what I heard...imagine what AAPL would be without all these shares being repurchased. Thats what i was thinking.... lots of sold shares for apple to buy.....
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 14:03:32 GMT -8
Sub 10M iPad number? It may not be the iPhone, but the iPad contributes to revs and earnings too. Maybe I'm the only one, but I am extremely worried about this quarter. why so worried? given what apple just reported compared to their guidance for Q3, Q4 guidance implies both a sequential and year-on-year increase - why would you be extremely worried about that? strictly using apples Q4 guidance, along with the share count reduction - EPS should be a lot closer on an annual compare than Q2 & Q3 were. I don't see how you figure an implied YoY increase. If anything, it's going to be close.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2013 14:05:29 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum? Yep, that's what I heard...imagine what AAPL would be without all these shares being repurchased. That is a worry but I think it's the best thing for Apple to do. If they keep this up there is going to be a material impact to EPS, YoY compares and possibly even dividend increases above the norm. These will all help get the ball rolling the opposite way. Then Apple can hang into their cash for a few quarters until the next crash (and there will almost certainly be one). The only way to address the games being played is to join in and become a key player.
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Post by captainboom on Jul 23, 2013 14:07:43 GMT -8
gah - wish i could trade spreads in AH, stock well off its highs now. Have you considered futures? /NQ moved in sync with AAPL after hours. You get leverage without the other option related shenanigans.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 14:17:42 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum? That's a minimum. Apple is not going to straight-line its repurchase plans. I think another $15 - 17B in repurchases will occur in the Sept. quarter.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 23, 2013 14:19:30 GMT -8
Apple is back. Why would this drop sub 420 now? Apple is second half of the year story anyway. Lets see how market plays tomorrow.
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Post by po1nt on Jul 23, 2013 14:20:54 GMT -8
Overall i'm "pleased" with the results. Good not great. I'm very happy with the buyback they did- I was really afraid that they would be a little bitch about it ;D We'll see how things hold up tomorrow. That will be the true test. Technically, we could have a runner here....
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 14:24:51 GMT -8
Does anyone else see 27M shares short? That could be fuel tomorrow.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 14:26:11 GMT -8
did they just say expect an extra 11 million share repurchases for next quarter based on already executed plans? so 11 million minimum? That's a minimum. Apple is not going to straight-line its repurchase plans. I think another $15 - 17B in repurchases will occur in the Sept. quarter. Agree. I think 15 million is now your lowest expectation. It could again be significantly higher...but if AAPL rallies during the quarter and makes those shares oh so much more expensieve to buy.......well, then maybe a bit fewer. A win-win for shareholders.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 14:29:57 GMT -8
Technically, we could have a runner here Ideally I would like to see it do one of two things: 1. Open below the SMA100 and quickly grab it and hold it. 2. Open above the SMA100, come down to test it, and bounce off. Here's what I said yesterday... Very glad we appear to be in the later scenario. I'll be a buyer if we have a rising daily MACDh at the close.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 14:32:17 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 14:34:04 GMT -8
Correct. No worries. Now let's close out July and get on with production ramps of new iPhones (2 flavors), new iPads (at least 1 flavor) and new MacBook Pros.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 14:40:55 GMT -8
Would suggest that a new iPad(s) is on the way this quarter. That's all I ask for.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 14:44:30 GMT -8
Would suggest that a new iPad(s) is on the way this quarter. That's all I ask for. And you will get it. The channel burn establishes that they don't want product in inventory that can't be moved efficiently. The continuing back to school crowd will chew up those current generation Ipads..then in September...you get your wish.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 14:52:46 GMT -8
This was a very solid quarter....right in line with the high side of estimates. But there is tons of fodder here for the Analysts (the guys who get paid to do it) to chew on... Product launches for Phones, Ipads, Mac Pros...virtually confirmed for September (We'll talk about it in October...). Share buybacks will be at APPLE's discretion, not some straightline approach that lets Wall Street guess how to play the price swings. If Apple could buy 24 million shares in a quarter they could (cash available) buy 30 million shares in a quarter....so..retiring 50 million shares in a stable much less growing revenues environment over the next five months....hmmm Iphones of all types still sell great. old ones, new ones, sort of old ones...they sell everywhere... IOS is where data is used...83% in tablets. New Products. New Product Catagories.... A 'Busy Fall" "products rolling out in the Fall and throughout 2014" As someone noted, 2013 is the "lost year..the year of transition". momentum picks up now and off we go. Oh...and I hope everyone noted that Mercel's harping on those who thought Itunes/services/software would decline or be flat was right on. He nailed it. Up 24% in a not thrilling sales environment. (but, after all..he said it was easy) Buy with a price target of 580.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2013 15:00:42 GMT -8
Would suggest that a new iPad(s) is on the way this quarter. That's all I ask for. And you will get it. The channel burn establishes that they don't want product in inventory that can't be moved efficiently. The continuing back to school crowd will chew up those current generation Ipads..then in September...you get your wish. So you think they sandbagged the high side of the guidance? Or stuck to their history of not including unannounced products in guidance? Because if we get a new iPad and new iPhones before the end of the quarter, I would think revs would come in higher than guidance. One thing is for certain, the October earnings release is going to be highly scrutinized.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 23, 2013 15:03:01 GMT -8
And you will get it. The channel burn establishes that they don't want product in inventory that can't be moved efficiently. The continuing back to school crowd will chew up those current generation Ipads..then in September...you get your wish. So you think they sandbagged the high side of the guidance? Or stuck to their history of not including unannounced products in guidance? Because if we get a new iPad and new iPhones before the end of the quarter, I would think revs would come in higher than guidance. One thing is for certain, the October earnings release is going to be highly scrutinized. personally, I think they are being cautious on guidance. Just assuming some kind of glinch caused supply constraints from September 14 (the planned rollout) to September 28...well, Q4 woudl lose millions of sales...so I think they are being careful here but the hints are very persuasive that many new and wonderful things are near at hand...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 23, 2013 15:10:51 GMT -8
Oppenheimer continues to be masterful at threading the needle when it comes to guidance.
I think he just said "probably new iPhone or two shipping in volume, we're not sure about iPad".
Apple did release both iPads in November last year after all.
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Post by cbingle on Jul 23, 2013 15:14:09 GMT -8
What price did AAPL get their shares at? From notes I saw 23.5 M shares with $12 B. That is over $500 per share. That cannot be right.
Anyone have a better idea of price paid per share?
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Post by BillH on Jul 23, 2013 15:26:48 GMT -8
Oh...and I hope everyone noted that Mercel's harping on those who thought Itunes/services/software would decline or be flat was right on. He nailed it. Up 24% in a not thrilling sales environment. (but, after all..he said it was easy) Buy with a price target of 580. That Mercel is a smart guy!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 23, 2013 15:48:40 GMT -8
24%? Not 30%? *innocent*
;D
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 15:57:22 GMT -8
apples guidance of $34-$37 billion implies a stronger quarter than the $35 billion quarter just passed. this to me implies it includes guidance for new products. Or they're just going to sell more of what they already have (my guess).
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