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Post by tuffett on Sept 5, 2013 11:34:52 GMT -8
I am excited for the launch 1 for the new phones to be out so I can buy one and 2 to add some volatility to this stock. It is just plain boring the past 15 or so sessions. I want to see some movement of signifigance either way is fine with me just something. Pretty ignorant comment. Your need for excitement may be better satiated at a casino, since you don't seem to care if you win or lose.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 5, 2013 11:45:22 GMT -8
I am excited for the launch 1 for the new phones to be out so I can buy one and 2 to add some volatility to this stock. It is just plain boring the past 15 or so sessions. I want to see some movement of signifigance either way is fine with me just something. Pretty ignorant comment. Your need for excitement may be better satiated at a casino, since you don't seem to care if you win or lose. i think he cares if he loses. you are assuming he is only betting it to go up, vs betting it to go not sideways. im getting antsy for the event mostly because i want to order my 5s ASAP!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 11:46:20 GMT -8
I have charted AAPL's move from day of Earnings to the second Friday following Earnings several different ways.
What I am getting from quarters in which Apple nearly met (or exceeded) expectations AND provided positive Guidance is an average 8.3% to 8.7% pop.
I charted intraday high to intraday high, mid-point intraday range to mid-point intraday range and Closing to Closing moves.
Should AAPL remain at ~$500, the potential for a $40 (8%) pop (from day of Earnings to second Friday following Earnings) looks quite possible. If you are fortunate enough to Buy at the Intraday Low on the day of Earnings the average pop increases to >10%.
A $20 (half the average) pop in the same time frame will yield about a 300% ROI on $5.00 Call Spreads. Not bad for a 9 trading day investment.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 11:50:23 GMT -8
I am excited for the launch 1 for the new phones to be out so I can buy one and 2 to add some volatility to this stock. It is just plain boring the past 15 or so sessions. I want to see some movement of signifigance either way is fine with me just something. Pretty ignorant comment. Your need for excitement may be better satiated at a casino, since you don't seem to care if you win or lose. Everybody expresses constrained anticipation differently.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 11:50:23 GMT -8
We are getting no pre-event run up. So maybe we get no "sell the news" --who the F knows. I'm confident that Apple will have a solid event, but I have little confidence in the market's response to it. Who would have thought a year ago, on the eve of new iPhones and the prospect of CM and DoCoMo deals that we'd struggle with $500. I am glad to see the fingerprint sensor is very likely coming after part leaks, along with everything else. I have zero options that expire this year and anyone to trade them short term is crazy or likes losing money. Well, I'm crazy. ;D (Though IIRC my current trade is Jan14, so borderline crazy? ) Not trading the event, I have sufficient conviction even with the base case (iPhone 5C, iPhone 5S, iOS 7). Adding China to launch schedule sooner is a bonus. Adding carriers is a bonus. Adding China Mobile is still something of a lottery ticket without more news reports, but no way in heck that's not a bonus within a couple months.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 5, 2013 12:12:54 GMT -8
Blah. I hate the mid-channel.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 5, 2013 12:15:19 GMT -8
I am excited for the launch 1 for the new phones to be out so I can buy one and 2 to add some volatility to this stock. It is just plain boring the past 15 or so sessions. I want to see some movement of signifigance either way is fine with me just something. Pretty ignorant comment. Your need for excitement may be better satiated at a casino, since you don't seem to care if you win or lose. Pretty rude comment. Kindly curb yourself before I curb you.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 12:32:25 GMT -8
I'd like to see what distribution looks like with the line separating 'premium' from 'low end' were raised to $400. Sub $300 'Smartphones' are being used as nothing more than over powered feature phones. Given that in Apple's business model hardware is sold to increase ecosystem software and services usage, the sub $300 handset buyer does not satisfy the model.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 12:40:09 GMT -8
iPhone 5C has a chance of sticking around another year. Further price drops in store? Meet the far more formidable "iPhone 4" of 2013-2015?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 5, 2013 12:45:18 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 13:37:07 GMT -8
I'm confident that Apple will have a solid event, but I have little confidence in the market's response to it. You can't really blame the Street if they can't recognize paradigm shifts, or at the minimum, the potential in supposed competitors or Apple's products. These are finance people, not marketing types. Generally speaking finance types are conservative, and they aren't likely to get excited about something they don't truly understand. Buffett is a great example of this. He admits to not having a clue about technology. From that I believe he means he doesn't understand how it is monetized. So he stays away from it, and puts his money where he does understand the business models. Add WS's lack of understanding, the lack of any real insight into what is going to be announced AND APPLE'S PERFORMANCE OF THE PAST YEAR, and you get deer in the headlights. WS really needs to be told what the future foretells, and that is Guidance. On September 10, and more importantly, October 23 the future will be shown to us all, until then its channel trading. That begs the question: What makes WS so "smart" about AMZN and so dumb about "AAPL?"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 14:40:26 GMT -8
Disrespect gap on an epic scale. Nothing more than that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 14:43:45 GMT -8
It's always been when, not if. Measure twice, cut once. Tens of millions of people are OK with "smaller" phones and I don't see that changing even as Samsung upsizes their stuff faster than generations of compact cars.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 5, 2013 15:14:24 GMT -8
So China Telecom accidently posts on a Chinese website that it will have the 5s and 5c on September 20. Then we have the China Mobile strong speculation, the DoCoMo strong speculation, the repurchase programs for existing phones from every carrier and Apple itself, which will accelerate sales of millions of new phones and allow for sale of the older phones (some by Apple) in developing countries.
iOS 7 is a hit....
Samsung, Blackberry, HTC and Nokia have taken their best shots and nothing stuck...
How does Apple NOT sell millions upon millions upon millions of phone starting on September 20?
I've not two 4s that will become 5s at no cost to me...I'm not alone.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 15:25:30 GMT -8
If the 5S is compelling enough, I'll be right there with Mercel doing the sell-iPhone 5-and-get-5S deal
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 5, 2013 15:45:23 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 15:48:25 GMT -8
If the 5S is compelling enough, I'll be right there with Mercel doing the sell-iPhone 5-and-get-5S deal Oh, I'm doing it, even if it doesn't come with a cupholder. ;D Black/graphite or White for me.
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 5, 2013 15:55:21 GMT -8
silly question but...why is it so hard to break $500 (and leave it in the dust)? Didn't we go right through it on our way down? ): Current Guidance has Apple's Earnings essentially flat IoY. Trusted Guidance is King in investing. I think WS believes AAPL is undervalued, but is waiting for Apple management to confirm it with updated Guidance in October. Until then AAPL isn't going to do much beyond $500. That said, the September 10 event could provide the kind of evidence that WS needs to climb onboard at higher prices. After the big drop we should take heart in the fact that AAPL's trend line for the past 2 months has been up. Thanks Gregg!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 16:17:18 GMT -8
DAMMIT.
Well it's off to Android and Kit Kat upgrades in 6-12 months. At least I can get a phablet to use as a cold-drink coaster. Especially if there's a BOGO deal.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 5, 2013 16:18:31 GMT -8
If the 5S is compelling enough, I'll be right there with Mercel doing the sell-iPhone 5-and-get-5S deal Oh, I'm doing it, even if it doesn't come with a cupholder. ;D Black/graphite or White for me. You always struck me as a gold guy...or is it sparkling wine?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 5, 2013 16:20:12 GMT -8
DAMMIT. Well it's off to Android and Kit Kat upgrades in 6-12 months. At least I can get a phablet to use as a cold-drink coaster. Especially if there's a BOGO deal. Kit Kat? My OS is called Kit Kat? Should be called Litter Box.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 16:35:25 GMT -8
Hmm. Is it "Kit Kat" or "KitKat"? Tomato tomahto.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 17:41:36 GMT -8
Oh, I'm doing it, even if it doesn't come with a cupholder. ;D Black/graphite or White for me. You always struck me as a gold guy...or is it sparkling wine? The gold looks great, but I'll let Paris Hilton wear the bling. I did learn I'm eligible for some kind of upgrade pricing today. The black/graphite looks all business. I did see a new Moto X today -- it felt cheap. And I'll NEVER get used to OLED displays.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 18:44:59 GMT -8
Hopefully Apple's keeping an eye on the still-small Xiaomi outfit, if only to keep an eye on it. They have a $10B VC valuation, an iPod-mini-ripoff exterior aesthetic, a Bezos-esque founder, and the as-ever-not-at-all-sorta-like-iOS user interface. Sales were apparently 7M through the first half of 2013, but with all the backing it's getting, the volume push will most certainly show up in the next year or two.
If there was an example of an Amazon of phones, this is it, though in the sense of high-end hardware at least on paper (Tegra 4, Sharp-sourced 1080p 5" screen, etc.) at little-to-no-margin. Not sure about LTE support though. Apparently Xiaomi leverages web services to make up for the lack of margin in device sales.
One thing I like about Xiaomi - their aggressiveness, which Apple should take note of. The fact that their 64GB version is nowhere near $200US higher than the base version means Apple needs to step up and get with the times in terms of iPhone storage capacity. Even the less app-savvy iPhone user base continues to add media (at the least, photos and high-def video), and it's long overdue for the flagship iPhone, even the iPhone 5C, to start with a more generous storage loadout - 32GB/64GB/128GB ideally, 24GB/48GB/96GB would be fine as a half-step for a year or two.
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platon
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Post by platon on Sept 5, 2013 19:13:41 GMT -8
From the Fool. www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/05/whoops-did-china-telecom-just-spoil-the-apple-surp.aspxAs Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) two most widely anticipated September media events approach -- the first beginning next Tuesday in the U.S., and the second scheduled a mere nine hours later in China -- the world has grown increasingly more frantic in its attempts to figure out what, exactly, the Cupertino-based tech giant has in store. Of course, one of the most persistent bits of yet-to-be-verified speculation involves a lower-priced "iPhone 5C," which investors hope will be targeted toward penetrating the fast-growing Chinese mobile market. Apparently, though, someone at China Telecom (NYSE: CHA ) managed to jump the gun Thursday, as the following press release (roughly translated) was posted on the company's Weibo customer service page: Image source: techweb.com.cn For those of you who can't read Chinese, here it is roughly translated: China has been chosen as [a/the] first country where the iPhone 5S/5C will be shipped! Weibo preorder time! If you want to be one of the people who gets a handset on day one, click: [Pre-order Link]. Those who successfully preorder will also enjoy a high-end gift bag. (Because the iPhone products haven't actually shipped yet, detailed numbers and actual shipping information may change.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 5, 2013 19:21:12 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 5, 2013 21:48:03 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 8:50:31 GMT -8
You can't really blame the Street if they can't recognize paradigm shifts, or at the minimum, the potential in supposed competitors or Apple's products. These are finance people, not marketing types. Generally speaking finance types are conservative, and they aren't likely to get excited about something they don't truly understand. Buffett is a great example of this. He admits to not having a clue about technology. From that I believe he means he doesn't understand how it is monetized. So he stays away from it, and puts his money where he does understand the business models. Add WS's lack of understanding, the lack of any real insight into what is going to be announced AND APPLE'S PERFORMANCE OF THE PAST YEAR, and you get deer in the headlights. WS really needs to be told what the future foretells, and that is Guidance. On September 10, and more importantly, October 23 the future will be shown to us all, until then its channel trading. That begs the question: What makes WS so "smart" about AMZN and so dumb about "AAPL?" Bezos has convinced WS that AMZN, whenever it wants to, can drop a few services and/or raise prices 2% or 3% and be incredibly profitable. For the time being AMZN is in acquire customers mode. It is the potential for serious profits that WS is buying. Being an online "general" store so to speak, with no real competition, AMZN's business will be very stable, and WS likes that. Take AMZN's gross revenue and assume that it throws off 4% to Net Income, and you get an ISM of 5.83. Each 1% increase in Net Income i.e., 4% of Gross Revenue to 5% of Gross Revenue, increases ISM 1.45 points. It would not be unreasonable that AMZN grows Net Income to 8%. That results in an ISM of 11.67, and all it requires is turning on the spigot, AMZN has the customers, top of mind for online shopping, and consumers' perception (like Wal-Mart) that its prices are the lowest.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2013 10:08:44 GMT -8
From the Fool. www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/05/whoops-did-china-telecom-just-spoil-the-apple-surp.aspxAs Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) two most widely anticipated September media events approach -- the first beginning next Tuesday in the U.S., and the second scheduled a mere nine hours later in China -- the world has grown increasingly more frantic in its attempts to figure out what, exactly, the Cupertino-based tech giant has in store. Of course, one of the most persistent bits of yet-to-be-verified speculation involves a lower-priced "iPhone 5C," which investors hope will be targeted toward penetrating the fast-growing Chinese mobile market. Apparently, though, someone at China Telecom (NYSE: CHA ) managed to jump the gun Thursday, as the following press release (roughly translated) was posted on the company's Weibo customer service page: Image source: techweb.com.cn For those of you who can't read Chinese, here it is roughly translated: China has been chosen as [a/the] first country where the iPhone 5S/5C will be shipped! Weibo preorder time! If you want to be one of the people who gets a handset on day one, click: [Pre-order Link]. Those who successfully preorder will also enjoy a high-end gift bag. (Because the iPhone products haven't actually shipped yet, detailed numbers and actual shipping information may change. Doing some crude extrapolation (incomplete starting data) and assuming that the new iPhones will ship day/date with the US, we could see Greater China (including China Mobile) December quarter iPhone unit sales increase QoQ by ~4,000,000 units. Three million of those units are not included in my current iPhone unit estimate of 61,000,000.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 6, 2013 13:58:29 GMT -8
Just 4M? I'm thinking up to 10. Only as an initial burst if demand is there, but an impossible-to-ignore start.
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