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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 17, 2013 7:50:51 GMT -8
Agree with you fellas on Fortt - he is usually very fair but he works for an organization that wants ratings so let's keep that in perspective as well. Glad you were able to engage him in a bit of a debate. I do think he tries to be balanced as best he could though.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 17, 2013 7:52:50 GMT -8
MY WORK IS DONE! Time to go biking....
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 17, 2013 8:41:09 GMT -8
It is not helpful to have a blast tweet out from John Fortt saying that he guesses AAPL did not have pre-orders of over 3 million on the 5c or else they probably would have made a statement. I know you will say it is CNBC but this goes out to everyone and it is simply not helpful -- so more pain here I am afraid. ( Not that the masses listen to me but I was not expecting ANY announcements this week and I believe it was Mercel or Red that said we would get hurt if these idiots are waiting for an announcement this week since it will only fuel negative speculation.) got him to respond to a tweet of mine, so at least that means he read the one i wrote about the above where i called him out Way to go, terps ;D
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Post by jss on Sept 17, 2013 9:03:20 GMT -8
Wow. Two more days like this and I'm never leaving Amsterdam Amsterdam my home town! aaah! For a good evening go to restaurant at Sir Albert and after go to the Butcher for cocktails. Was there a month ago and had a super evening there with my fiancee. :-)
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 17, 2013 9:22:58 GMT -8
Congrats gtrplyr! THAT's what I'm talking about -- push these guys who are slouching on the job Sorry I can't take credit .... But TERPS Can !
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Post by prazan on Sept 17, 2013 9:35:31 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 9:38:15 GMT -8
Congrats gtrplyr! THAT's what I'm talking about -- push these guys who are slouching on the job Sorry I can't take credit .... But TERPS Can ! Sorry about that, Terps. Props to you!!!
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Post by rob_london on Sept 17, 2013 10:36:41 GMT -8
John Gruber makes a very good point regarding the absence of 5c pre-order numbers from Apple: daringfireball.net
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 10:45:18 GMT -8
Which was obvious. Besides, no 5S to add/blend. That's the first principle.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 17, 2013 11:45:40 GMT -8
Since we're now hearing more FUD about how supply-constrained the 5s is, I thought I'd post this again to see what people think....
- Let's say demand for 5s is great but because of advanced components, apple wasn't able to make very many for the launch. Lets say 2 million total worldwide. That's why they didn't do preorders with this model -- if they had done preorders they wouldn't have had any for launch weekend. - demand for 5c is solid, but not among early adopter types who go preorder. It's more a like-it-when-you-see-it item. Preorders come in around 2 million. - on launch weekend, lines are crazy. They quickly sell out of their 5s stock, and they sell another 3 million 5Cs, as people see them up close, or people who couldn't get the 5s settle for the 5c.
In this scenario, total first wknd sales including 5c preorders: 7 million.
Fundamentals still positive because of all the pent-up demand for 5s, and because the more people see the 5cs, the more they want them. Still, 7 million is seen as a bad number by investors, who were disappointed by last year's 5 million 5's. Especially with china and Japan in that initial launch this time, since China had 2 million first weekend sales of iPhone 5, this is a flatline y/y. Stock tanks to 400 and below.
Plausible? Probability? Alternative predictions?
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 17, 2013 11:55:58 GMT -8
Somebody just bought 40,500 shares @ 455.00
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Post by lance on Sept 17, 2013 11:59:56 GMT -8
Watch for the Supply chain constraints articles to start up Friday, after a week of low demand articles before the launch. The problem with this stock is you never win. If Apple does well the worry is can it do better, if it does okay the worry is will it do worse. No matter what the launch or product is the media can take high sales and huge profits and turn it into a complete mess and sadly investors believe it.
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Post by prazan on Sept 17, 2013 12:07:56 GMT -8
Since we're now hearing more FUD about how supply-constrained the 5s is, I thought I'd post this again to see what people think.... - Let's say demand for 5s is great but because of advanced components, apple wasn't able to make very many for the launch. Lets say 2 million total worldwide. That's why they didn't do preorders with this model -- if they had done preorders they wouldn't have had any for launch weekend. - demand for 5c is solid, but not among early adopter types who go preorder. It's more a like-it-when-you-see-it item. Preorders come in around 2 million. - on launch weekend, lines are crazy. They quickly sell out of their 5s stock, and they sell another 3 million 5Cs, as people see them up close, or people who couldn't get the 5s settle for the 5c. In this scenario, total first wknd sales including 5c preorders: 7 million. Fundamentals still positive because of all the pent-up demand for 5s, and because the more people see the 5cs, the more they want them. Still, 7 million is seen as a bad number by investors, who were disappointed by last year's 5 million 5's. Especially with china and Japan in that initial launch this time, since China had 2 million first weekend sales of iPhone 5, this is a flatline y/y. Stock tanks to 400 and below. Plausible? Probability? Alternative predictions? If I remember correctly, you posted this question before. I've been flipping the coin since then, coming up heads one time, tails the next. It's difficult to judge reaction, except that I'd tilt toward a negative reaction unless Apple clearly beats last year's sales, after factoring in China and Japan. What strikes fear into my heart is a sales number of about 5 million, which seems possible to me given the widely believed, restricted supply of 5s models. If I remember correctly, Apple has reported sales in the past, not orders. Orders for the 5s might be off the charts, but that won't affect the reported number. I'm hoping that Apple has already figured this one out and will announce both sales and orders.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 12:08:36 GMT -8
Used the spare cash I had to buy some 2016 $600 LEAPS.
This week is a great buying opportunity.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 12:10:17 GMT -8
Since we're now hearing more FUD about how supply-constrained the 5s is, I thought I'd post this again to see what people think.... - Let's say demand for 5s is great but because of advanced components, apple wasn't able to make very many for the launch. Lets say 2 million total worldwide. That's why they didn't do preorders with this model -- if they had done preorders they wouldn't have had any for launch weekend. - demand for 5c is solid, but not among early adopter types who go preorder. It's more a like-it-when-you-see-it item. Preorders come in around 2 million. - on launch weekend, lines are crazy. They quickly sell out of their 5s stock, and they sell another 3 million 5Cs, as people see them up close, or people who couldn't get the 5s settle for the 5c. In this scenario, total first wknd sales including 5c preorders: 7 million. Fundamentals still positive because of all the pent-up demand for 5s, and because the more people see the 5cs, the more they want them. Still, 7 million is seen as a bad number by investors, who were disappointed by last year's 5 million 5's. Especially with china and Japan in that initial launch this time, since China had 2 million first weekend sales of iPhone 5, this is a flatline y/y. Stock tanks to 400 and below. Plausible? Probability? Alternative predictions? If I remember correctly, you posted this question before. I've been flipping the coin since then, coming up heads one time, tails the next. It's difficult to judge reaction, except that I'd tilt toward a negative reaction unless Apple clearly beats last year's preorders, after factoring in China and Japan. What strikes fear into my heart is a sales number of about 5 million, which seems possible to me given the widely believed, restricted supply of 5s models. If I remember correctly, Apple has reported sales in the past, not orders. Orders for the 5s might be off the charts, but that won't affect the reported number. I'm hoping that Apple has already figured this one out and will announce both sales and orders. Announcing orders made I think would be a true indication of demand. I hope they do that instead of sales.
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Post by kloot on Sept 17, 2013 12:11:50 GMT -8
Somebody just bought 40,500 shares @ 455.00 Sponge's money transfer must have completed.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 12:12:36 GMT -8
On another topic: Does anyone know when iOS7 will be available for download ? I understand that the 18th is the official date but I seem to remember Apple making earlier versions available later in the evening the day before ... Depends what they mean by the 18th. Its been the 18th here in New Zealand for over 8 hours already its no sign of iOS7. I'm guessing it will be 18th PST
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2013 12:26:25 GMT -8
Not impressed today. Better be impressed tomorrow, or I'm going short-term bear.
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Post by sponge on Sept 17, 2013 12:30:14 GMT -8
Somebody just bought 40,500 shares @ 455.00 Sponge's money transfer must have completed. LOL You made me laugh. I only wish I could buy at 455 any shares. Just hanging on for dear life right now. Will be forced to sell for a loss tomorrow for the first time in a few months. We will recover come Monday post my forced selling and I will be a happy and great full sponge.
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Post by po1nt on Sept 17, 2013 12:31:37 GMT -8
Not impressed today. Better be impressed tomorrow, or I'm going short-term bear. Word. Bought OCT Calls at open and will sell if we can hold 100-DMA
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 12:47:44 GMT -8
Not impressed today. Better be impressed tomorrow, or I'm going short-term bear. Momo bear? I think that's the strategy at this point, right? With all the news of constrained iPhone 5S (which hasn't surprised me since the keynote), who knows. IF Apple is "proactive" about stock price, of course it has the option to provide a "blended" look at initial iPhone interest. Say, "6 million sold, 5 million pre-orders we're working overtime to fill as best we can". Like prazan said, flip a coin for Monday. Though you might get a small bit of insight from tracking 5S availability starting Friday.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 17, 2013 12:56:17 GMT -8
Not impressed today. Better be impressed tomorrow, or I'm going short-term bear. I agree. Would have liked to see the early rise hold better than it did. Dumped my Oct calls for a 5% gain. Will reassess later this week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2013 13:40:29 GMT -8
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Post by pauls on Sept 17, 2013 13:52:11 GMT -8
If there is any truth to the 'grotesque' low supply of 5S, I predict a frenzy at stores, and of course, a lot of mainstream coverage. Which will only light a fire under everyone considering a 5S. And drive some overflow to the robustly-margined 5C. I don't see constrained 5S numbers as a horrible thing, particularly if production is accelerating for the holiday quarter. Demand WILL be gauged.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 17, 2013 14:07:56 GMT -8
When is ios7 coming out.
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Post by elmar on Sept 17, 2013 14:08:13 GMT -8
Just checked the German AppleStore and it does now say "5 business days" instead of "9/20" for all 5C models. So delivery has now moved to 9/25. I would see this as good news!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 17, 2013 14:17:45 GMT -8
Just checked the German AppleStore and it does now say "5 business days" instead of "9/20" for all 5C models. So delivery has now moved to 9/25. I would see this as good news! This is a doomsday scenario. It simply means the supply of 5Cs is "grotesquely" underwhelming. No way they would sell out if ample supplies were available. Shortage of plastic?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 14:28:09 GMT -8
Email him; I'm going to this evening. With bulls like him, who needs bears?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 14:29:17 GMT -8
Just checked the German AppleStore and it does now say "5 business days" instead of "9/20" for all 5C models. So delivery has now moved to 9/25. I would see this as good news! This is a doomsday scenario. It simply means the supply of 5Cs is "grotesquely" underwhelming. No way they would sell out if ample supplies were available. Shortage of plastic? 1. Bull = High Demand 2. Bear = Low Supply.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 14:32:23 GMT -8
I don't know where Glen Yeung gets his info, but at least he's closer than his 17M iPhone # for last June (31M actual). He's saying 7.75m combined 5c and 5s sales through this coming weekend. I'm still noodling a # but this is higher than what I'd expect from this AAPL bear. bgr.com/2013/09/17/iphone-5c-preorders-total-est/
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