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Post by redinaustin on Sept 22, 2013 13:22:01 GMT -8
Looks like Tim Cook is enjoying Twitter. He already retweeted Conan and Jimmy Fallon's tweets on the new iOS and 5S. Good / smart publicity. (: I'm using twitter just for him! C'mon timmay Careful, it's addictive and rightly so
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Post by rickag on Sept 22, 2013 13:45:49 GMT -8
Well that was fast. Very depressing, Apple will be hammered over this, not sure the effect on AAPL.
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Post by leonb on Sept 22, 2013 13:51:20 GMT -8
I disagree. I believe Apple is more fragile than Google and Amazon (which are both extremely sticky), but also that Apple is the better value stock. Apple is my top holding, I've never been long or short Google, I've shorted Amazon before. I'm confident my outlook and position are consistent. Not seeing it. Fragility should directly affect conviction. You'd think fragility and revenue level were related as well. Fragility does affect conviction. But fragile businesses have some value nonetheless. Apple's future revenue is less reliable (more fragile) than Google's or Amazon's, so its past or near term revenue merits a bigger discount (once you adjust for normal profit margins, of course, since you've focused on revenue, rather than earnings). It's really not inconsistent to be less confident about future revenue and more confident about fundamental value vs other companies. I often invest in small cap distressed companies that have simply become too cheap, for example.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 13:51:58 GMT -8
Can this be verified? tinyurl.com/iPhone-Sell-OutIf it indeed took longer to sell out this year, than it did last year, then logic says more inventory was available this year, because demand certainly wasn't lower.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 13:57:37 GMT -8
leonb, using profit is an even more unfair comparison than revenues for Google and Amazon, depending on how you look at it. ;D Yes, margins, but I have a go-for-share theory on that that needs another 3-4 quarters to support or refute.
Well, if you see AAPL as a value stock, that's great. But like anything, it's a hypothesis. One _thinks_ value stocks are safer, and they generally seem to be, but not always. And you can't cleanly apply the "value stock" moniker to a high-wire-act company like Apple - which is also a high-beta tech stock.
And I'm not being dismissive when I say high-wire-act, because it's true. Apple is taking the "hard way" to its revenues and profits via intricate vertical integration and build quality aspirations (for hardware and software) that are much higher than the norm, which exponentially raises consumer brand expectations.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 13:59:26 GMT -8
Gregg, visibility is incredibly poor on account of the iPhone mix this year vs. any other. At least we'll get answers (or, non-answer answers) in less than a day.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 14:04:18 GMT -8
Well that was fast. Very depressing, Apple will be hammered over this, not sure the effect on AAPL. Depressing hell, that was exciting. The technology the Mythbusters © 2011 cracked is the same technology used by Motorola's failed attempt at fingerprint recognition. It read the surface of the print, not the LIVING tissue underneath. The technique used will not/does not work on Apple's fingerprint reader technology. It shouldn't be long for similar attempts to crack Apple's reader fall flat on their face.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 22, 2013 14:07:30 GMT -8
Well that was fast. Very depressing, Apple will be hammered over this, not sure the effect on AAPL. Depressing hell, that was exciting. The technology the Mythbusters © 2011 cracked is the same technology used by Motorola's failed attempt at fingerprint recognition. It read the surface of the print, not the LIVING tissue underneath. The technique used will not/does not work on Apple's fingerprint reader technology. It shouldn't be long for similar attempts to crack Apple's reader fall flat on their face. Gregg - did you watch the applicable video before you posted this?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 14:08:47 GMT -8
The Chaos Computer Club would beg to differ, which is why I brought up the Mythbusters video. Older yes, same alleged method yes.
It won't take long for some independent data points on this and for Apple to re-think its security policy, which is great. There's plenty of ways for Apple to fix/mitigate, as long as it's possible in hardware/software.
Meanwhile, I'm not important enough for anyone to care to go through the trouble of lifting my print and lifting my phone (or trying to take my print and use it for nefarious purposes) so I think I'm good. Still on course to get a 5S.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 14:22:24 GMT -8
Gregg, visibility is incredibly poor on account of the iPhone mix this year vs. any other. At least we'll get answers (or, non-answer answers) in less than a day. You are absolutely correct, which is why I am dismissive, to the point of being rude/obnoxious, of those that are decrying Apple's abilities/decisions. As stated many times before, and always around product launches, the business geniuses from Mayberry RFD, with no credentials, knowledge or expertise, always know better than the people actually doing the job. If those geniuses were/are so talented why aren't they being sought out to rescue Blackberry, Nokia, HTC, Motorola or Microsoft? There's a wide open market for management talent of the caliber at Apple. These geniuses don't have to be shy, there are headhunters all over the planet looking for their special abilities. I hear the pay is fantastic, and the recognition goes far beyond forum guru. But wait, their expertise only applies to Apple management abilities/decisions. I don't recall any of them leveling the same 'critical thinking' to the leadership of the aforementioned firms. Talent like this, being so narrowly defined, makes me think idiot savant.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 14:28:10 GMT -8
Depressing hell, that was exciting. The technology the Mythbusters © 2011 cracked is the same technology used by Motorola's failed attempt at fingerprint recognition. It read the surface of the print, not the LIVING tissue underneath. The technique used will not/does not work on Apple's fingerprint reader technology. It shouldn't be long for similar attempts to crack Apple's reader fall flat on their face. Gregg - did you watch the applicable video before you posted this? I did. They lifted a print, photocopied, enlarged and enhanced it. Then made a 3D gel replica that was "read" by a computer reader. The only consumer grade fingerprint reader technology available when that episode ran (2011), was based on reading the surface of the fingerprint, as evidenced by a mere paper photocopy foiling the system. This is when Motorola introduced a very short (less than 6 months) lived handset, using the same technology.
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Post by applemuncher on Sept 22, 2013 14:31:42 GMT -8
And you can't cleanly apply the "value stock" moniker to a high-wire-act company like Apple - which is also a high-beta tech stock. Apple's beta is less than one, meaning the shares are less volatile than the market average. Over the past year Apple has transitioned from a high growth stock to a value stock.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 22, 2013 14:45:30 GMT -8
Gregg - did you watch the applicable video before you posted this? I did. They lifted a print, photocopied, enlarged and enhanced it. Then made a 3D gel replica that was "read" by a computer reader. The only consumer grade fingerprint reader technology available when that episode ran (2011), was based on reading the surface of the fingerprint, as evidenced by a mere paper photocopy foiling the system. This is when Motorola introduced a very short (less than 6 months) lived handset, using the same technology. No, I mean the one that apparently was used on the 5S. AppleInsiderEDIT: I think that the test should have been done on a finger that was not used to teach the iphone. If it reads below the surface, who is to say that it was not reading through the fake print?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 15:05:58 GMT -8
Per the video, his index finger was registered and his middle finger with the fake index finger was used to authenticate. But we don't know anything else.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 22, 2013 15:07:13 GMT -8
I did. They lifted a print, photocopied, enlarged and enhanced it. Then made a 3D gel replica that was "read" by a computer reader. The only consumer grade fingerprint reader technology available when that episode ran (2011), was based on reading the surface of the fingerprint, as evidenced by a mere paper photocopy foiling the system. This is when Motorola introduced a very short (less than 6 months) lived handset, using the same technology. No, I mean the one that apparently was used on the 5S. AppleInsiderEDIT: I think that the test should have been done on a finger that was not used to teach the iphone. If it reads below the surface, who is to say that it was not reading through the fake print? As long as your not working for the CIA this is a non-issue. From what I've heard it does exactly what it's supposed to do and quite elegantly .
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Post by Lstream on Sept 22, 2013 15:12:10 GMT -8
Per the video, his index finger was registered and his middle finger with the fake index finger was used to authenticate. But we don't know anything else. Yep, my mistake. I am withholding judgement on any of this stuff for a bit. It could be a page-hit motivated hoax for all we know.
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Post by nathanstevens on Sept 22, 2013 15:25:35 GMT -8
Can this be verified? tinyurl.com/iPhone-Sell-OutIf it indeed took longer to sell out this year, than it did last year, then logic says more inventory was available this year, because demand certainly wasn't lower. I'm inclined to believe that the significant number of 5C leaks indicated a huge initial supply. Waiting for confirmation tomorrow am.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 15:29:36 GMT -8
Well, it's certainly clear why China Mobile wasn't a launch carrier, lack of TD-LTE network aside. Would've been a horrific constraint on 5S units.
I'd hope at least a couple million people have picked up the 5C, but who knows - and I doubt Apple will ever say for obvious reasons. Tomorrow morning can't get here soon enough.
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 22, 2013 16:23:05 GMT -8
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Sept 22, 2013 17:01:21 GMT -8
His own phone. Kind of fishy?
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Post by Gridlock on Sept 22, 2013 17:04:23 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 22, 2013 17:13:07 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2013 17:38:54 GMT -8
When I brought up earlier about a bounty being given to whoever hacks the ID thumb print thing ....I was told it was merely glory hunting. So which is it fellas? You really DON'T think this will be splattered all over the business news and spun negatively tomorrow?! Good numbers will take the focus off of this. So let's be hopeful we get them!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2013 17:45:06 GMT -8
It's not really hacking as much as it is tricking, but the PR effect is very similar...
I give Apple a week to respond assuming there's verification that what the Chaos Computer Club supposedly did can be replicated. The downside of secrecy is a flood of third-party testing only _after_ launch.
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Post by BillH on Sept 22, 2013 17:48:57 GMT -8
I'd echo the comment posted below the video. No way to know if the middle finger had been previously indexed. It's hard to understand why the chaos club is so opposed to biometric data given that the whole point of identifying you as you is exactly that. Really weird all in all.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 17:56:45 GMT -8
Well, it's certainly clear why China Mobile wasn't a launch carrier, lack of TD-LTE network aside. Would've been a horrific constraint on 5S units. I'd hope at least a couple million people have picked up the 5C, but who knows - and I doubt Apple will ever say for obvious reasons. Tomorrow morning can't get here soon enough. For the last 12 months over any 2 week period Apple would normally sell a couple million units of 4/4s iPhones. I would hope that between the preorder deliveries, instore purchasers and reseller channel build, that at least 2 million 5c units would be counted as "sold" tomorrow morning.
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Post by leonb on Sept 22, 2013 17:56:46 GMT -8
I'd echo the comment posted below the video. No way to know if the middle finger had been previously indexed. It's hard to understand why the chaos club is so opposed to biometric data given that the whole point of identifying you as you is exactly that. Really weird all in all. The possibility of having previously indexed the middle finger is so obvious, I find it suspicious that the video didn't demonstrate in one cut the absence of stored prints. Doesn't look like a 5s either (no silver ring). I say, fake.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 18:04:13 GMT -8
Did apple ever say that touchID was completely secure? I don't think so.
From the marketing and intro videos I got the impression that it simply makes it easier to unlock you phone, make iTunes purchasers & stop someone else from unlocking your phone if they are using their own fingers.
Saying that its possible to gain access by way of some elaborate act involving gaining high resolution photos of a fingerprint and manufacturing a fake finger layer might be accurate, but I'll give consumers the benefit of the doubt that they see how implausible that sounds as a threat to everyday use.
And if media come out saying a passcode is more secure, then that's just plain stupid. Anyone standing within a reasonable distance on the street can easily see what number you enter to unlock a passcode - and then can simply grab your phone right away or at a later time of their choosing since they know your passcode. No mission impossible fake fingertips required.
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Post by prazan on Sept 22, 2013 18:09:28 GMT -8
The technique they use to break fingerprint security is far too complex to pose any significant real world threat, except to evildoers in the Mission Impossible world.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2013 18:45:33 GMT -8
For the last 12 months over any 2 week period Apple would normally sell a couple million units of 4/4s iPhones. I would hope that between the preorder deliveries, instore purchasers and reseller channel build, that at least 2 million 5c units would be counted as "sold" tomorrow morning. Now this is the kind of thinking that excites me, but I have to ask you about your data points, so I can better understand your results.
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