Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 0:53:19 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 19, 2013 1:20:29 GMT -8
Guidance upgrades. The new guidance blowouts.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 19, 2013 2:30:54 GMT -8
Upgrades are good to help lift the stock a little but most of us know how clueless these WS analysts are....and I can't think of anyone on this Board that follows them or trades on any of their recommendations. That said, the general public tends to do so - more than many of you can appreciate and would be stunned to know .... so like anything else you need to be aware of any upgrades/downgrades, etc...just another variable -- and only at times.
As much as I get annoyed that TC hasn't had this agreement with CHL "done and dusted" yet, I am reminded that GOOG couldn't even function in China and pulled out. It's not easy doing business there - doubt anyone here would disagree. TC seems to have a great deal of patience...I'm not so sure that SJ wouldn't have told them where to stick there agreement already - we'll never know.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 19, 2013 6:56:48 GMT -8
So Nasdaq rebalancing also tomorrow (along with S&P rebalancing-and quadruple witching). The stocks that are for sale should be AAPL and Exxon-Mobil due to their large buy-backs. All of this coupled with a PIN (potentially) and lack of announcements - we should see near term weakness into the weekend. Don't forget that lots of funds own AAPL so to the extent they need to rebalance, they'll be doing it tomorrow. Just pointing out what may be obvious to some and a heads up for others.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 19, 2013 8:01:11 GMT -8
My comment on guidance upgrades was meant to insinuate that if PO starts issuing upgrades each quarter, it's going to become expected in the way that huge guidance blowouts became expected.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 19, 2013 8:06:41 GMT -8
My comment on guidance upgrades was meant to insinuate that if PO starts issuing upgrades each quarter, it's going to become expected in the way that huge guidance blowouts became expected. I posted the following on a different site: The SEC filing: On September 23, 2013, Apple Inc. (the "Company") announced that it has sold over nine million new iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c models, just three days after the launch of the new iPhones on September 20. Apple expects total company revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter to be near the high end of the previously provided range of $34 billion to $37 billion, and expects gross margin to be near the high end of the previously provided range of 36% to 37%. IMHO: Apple decided to announce that they were STILL within both ranges because bloggers were posting that 9 million was just a huge number. New guidance is not coming. Oppie KNOWS what the sales will be within a range. He is like Santa Claus. He knows what sold. Where it is sold. What is made.... IMHO: OPPIE did not REALLY increase guidance.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 19, 2013 9:44:37 GMT -8
Nothing much to say today, I guess.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 9:52:23 GMT -8
New guidance is not coming. NoiPadmini dude: Apple BEAT revenues for the Sept. quarter. Your certainty begs for skepticism. Although the lack of a CM deal makes revised guidance less likely, I still think it happens. Peter O. doesn't know demand like you think he does, given all the variables he has NO control over, like Apple's competition and the acceptance of a FULL SLATE of new Apple products in the December quarter. Personally, I can't get under $59B in revenues, no matter how hard I try. It would be a bigger surprise they keep it under $58B than it would be them to report $59B - $60B.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 19, 2013 10:18:27 GMT -8
New guidance is not coming. NoiPadmini dude: Apple BEAT revenues for the Sept. quarter. Your certainty begs for skepticism. Although the lack of a CM deal makes revised guidance less likely, I still think it happens. Peter O. doesn't know demand like you think he does, given all the variables he has NO control over, like Apple's competition and the acceptance of a FULL SLATE of new Apple products in the December quarter. Personally, I can't get under $59B in revenues, no matter how hard I try. It would be a bigger surprise they keep it under $58B than it would be them to report $59B - $60B. Revenue for the quarter was $37.5 billion (The difference with upper guidance was $500 million OR 1 million iPhones). I think OPPIE nailed it. In total we expect revenue to be between $55 billion and $58 billion compared to $54.5 billion in the year ago quarter. We expect gross margins to be between 36.5% and 37.5%GUIDANCE must be believed. Until HE changes it.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 19, 2013 10:34:42 GMT -8
NoiPadmini dude: Apple BEAT revenues for the Sept. quarter. Your certainty begs for skepticism. Although the lack of a CM deal makes revised guidance less likely, I still think it happens. Peter O. doesn't know demand like you think he does, given all the variables he has NO control over, like Apple's competition and the acceptance of a FULL SLATE of new Apple products in the December quarter. Personally, I can't get under $59B in revenues, no matter how hard I try. It would be a bigger surprise they keep it under $58B than it would be them to report $59B - $60B. Revenue for the quarter was $37.5 billion (The difference with upper guidance was $500 million OR 1 million iPhones). I think OPPIE nailed it. In total we expect revenue to be between $55 billion and $58 billion compared to $54.5 billion in the year ago quarter. We expect gross margins to be between 36.5% and 37.5%GUIDANCE must be believed. Until HE changes it. I agree.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 10:45:43 GMT -8
NoiPadmini dude: Apple BEAT revenues for the Sept. quarter. Your certainty begs for skepticism. Although the lack of a CM deal makes revised guidance less likely, I still think it happens. Peter O. doesn't know demand like you think he does, given all the variables he has NO control over, like Apple's competition and the acceptance of a FULL SLATE of new Apple products in the December quarter. Personally, I can't get under $59B in revenues, no matter how hard I try. It would be a bigger surprise they keep it under $58B than it would be them to report $59B - $60B. Revenue for the quarter was $37.5 billion (The difference with upper guidance was $500 million OR 1 million iPhones). I think OPPIE nailed it. In total we expect revenue to be between $55 billion and $58 billion compared to $54.5 billion in the year ago quarter. We expect gross margins to be between 36.5% and 37.5%GUIDANCE must be believed. Until HE changes it. Apple guided 34 - 37B for the Sept quarter in July on the June earnings call. That it reported 9M iPhones at the same time gave Apple an added reason to curtail expectations, but nonetheless, it exceeded guided revenues. Nailing guidance would have been 35.5B, not 37.5B
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 10:48:23 GMT -8
"Guidance must be believed. Until HE changes it."
Of course. ^ This means nothing. It's like saying, "Joe Blow is right, until he's wrong"
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 11:12:30 GMT -8
If you can't get under 59M, then either a revision is coming or your estimates are too high? So if a revision doesn't come out in the next 2 weeks, you should lower expectations.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 11:23:54 GMT -8
While Apple makes it _look_ fairly easy, turning over iPhone and then iPad in relatively short order is hardly an ideal supply chain/production situation. You can't totally account for the uncertainty of ramping up both of Apple's most important product lines to max levels from rest (since unit sales will probably not be higher than in fiscal Q1). The $55B-58B range guidance was more than warranted. I was actually surprised it wasn't more uncertain in terms of the $3B bandwidth of the range.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 11:45:38 GMT -8
Spent some loose change on a bet for the $550 pin tomorrow - bought some $547.50c/$550.00 call spreads for .70c
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 11:56:47 GMT -8
If you can't get under 59M, then either a revision is coming or your estimates are too high? So if a revision doesn't come out in the next 2 weeks, you should lower expectations. Tim is sitting on the couch with me right now and he's nodding his head.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 19, 2013 11:57:09 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 19, 2013 12:01:13 GMT -8
Is there much precedent for a 59/58 = 0.7% beat of the high end driving guidance changes in other companies? That seems so close to not even bother. Last quarter was different after that 9M opening weekend. There was a need to keep expectations in line.
Should we really expect an upgrade if Apple expects such a small beat?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 12:01:30 GMT -8
So if I'm understanding you Artman - you think Apple issued a guidance reiteration to stop any expectations of an earnings blowout.
One way to interpret that: if apple doesn't issue a guidance reiteration before earnings, then a unexpected earnings blowout is one possibility (as would simply meeting guidance).
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 19, 2013 12:06:31 GMT -8
So if I'm understanding you Artman - you think Apple issued a guidance reiteration to stop any expectations of an earnings blowout. One way to interpret that: if apple doesn't issue a guidance reiteration before earnings, then a unexpected earnings blowout is one possibility (as would simply meeting guidance). I agree with Artman on why that reiteration happened. Keeping expectations in line. I also think that there is no way Apple keeps quiet about an unexpected earnings blowout. They have worked too hard to force Wall Street to think properly about the company to let that happen. I think they even modulate channel inventory if necessary to report in-line with expectations.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 19, 2013 12:08:53 GMT -8
So if I'm understanding you Artman - you think Apple issued a guidance reiteration to stop any expectations of an earnings blowout. One way to interpret that: if apple doesn't issue a guidance reiteration before earnings, then a unexpected earnings blowout is one possibility (as would simply meeting guidance). I believe $54 Billion last year was a very big number. Not everyone buys a new iPad or iPhone every year. If Apple reports revenue between $54-58, that would be GREAT.IT IS A HUGE NUMBER.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 12:14:00 GMT -8
If you can't get under 59M, then either a revision is coming or your estimates are too high? So if a revision doesn't come out in the next 2 weeks, you should lower expectations. Tim is sitting on the couch with me right now and he's nodding his head. Trololol (unless that's the name of your family member or pet cat/dog/iguana, in which case, it's still a trololol ;D)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 12:17:02 GMT -8
Remember, it was a non-revision revision.
A non-upgrade upgrade.
It was a reiteration/clarification of guidance to expect the high end of the range. For Apple/Oppenheimer to give _two_ guidance statements "in between quarters" is no big sin, though I'd prefer guidance updates to be given either (1) rarely or (2) every quarter, one or the other.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 12:17:05 GMT -8
So if I'm understanding you Artman - you think Apple issued a guidance reiteration to stop any expectations of an earnings blowout. One way to interpret that: if apple doesn't issue a guidance reiteration before earnings, then a unexpected earnings blowout is one possibility (as would simply meeting guidance). I believe $54 Billion last year was a very big number. Not everyone buys a new iPad or iPhone every year. If Apple reports revenue between $54-58, that would be GREAT.IT IS A HUGE NUMBER. I agree that meeting the top end of guidance will be a good result given the negative revenue effects of iPod (less $1 billion) & increased revenue deferral (less $1-1.5 billion). All the same I'm expecting Apple to once again beat the top end of revenue guidance.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 19, 2013 12:20:14 GMT -8
Profits from the high margin Mac Pro will not be counted in this quarter, as none of them will arrive at doors until next quarter.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 12:47:41 GMT -8
I'm not sure Mac Pro makes much of a difference in Apple's financials anymore.
It _should_ help out Mac ASP significantly, but is Mac Pro even a 100k units/qtr proposition? Can't say yet. My pie-in-the-sky, "unrealistic" hope is that Mac Pro can manage 200-250k units a quarter, but is there a pro market that big?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 12:53:04 GMT -8
I'm not sure Mac Pro makes much of a difference in Apple's financials anymore. It _should_ help out Mac ASP significantly, but is Mac Pro even a 100k units/qtr proposition? Can't say yet. My pie-in-the-sky, "unrealistic" hope is that Mac Pro can manage 200-250k units a quarter, but is there a pro market that big? Its definitely a prestige product - good for the brand more than anything. I hope Apple can build upon the production & distribution setup of the US Mac Pro production to slowly bring all mac production back to the USA (at least for all mac units actually sold in the US).
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 12:55:48 GMT -8
Don't get me wrong, Mac Pro is a positive to the financials. But I have no clue how well it will sell over time (Apple hasn't broken out "PowerMac" sales for years now). And ASP/margin projections are all complete WAGs, especially without any filled orders just yet. $3500? $4000? 30-40% margins? No one knows.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 19, 2013 13:02:33 GMT -8
I am reminded that GOOG couldn't even function in China and pulled out. Let's keep that in context. Google is mostly a search company whose chief goal is tracking people. In China, that's the government's job, and they already have a sweetheart deal with Baidu. Same tracking, except censored results and they come and take you away if you search for the wrong things. No doubt the PRC has agents working full time inside Baidu's HQ and servers. Google: Do no evil in China: the government doesn't like the competition. I am aware that the NSA is probably doing a lot of the same things here, just less openly, is not censoring, and is not hauling people away for their searches. It is likely that sticking points with Apple-CM negotiations are related to user privacy on a state-owned network. I'd also suggest that Apple playing it cool as a cucumber and not blinking is the best negotiating approach. Every day, Unicom and Telecom sell tons of iPhones... Apple: "We're in no hurry, CM, whenever you're ready." CM is probably replying, "Have you read the AAPL message boards?"
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 13:04:34 GMT -8
Aren't all three of China's biggest carriers (which includes Telecom and Unicom) state-run to some degree?
|
|