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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 21:23:16 GMT -8
I would like to point out that beating management's top Revenue Guidance for FQ1/2014 by $1 billion ($59 billion results vs $58 billion Guidance) would entail a beat of the low of the Guidance range of 7.78%. A beat of this magnitude is not without precedent. Note the FQ4/2013 beat % in my previous post. $1 billion in Revenue equals about 1.7 million iPhones, or about 2.2 million iPads, or about 800K Macs, or some combination of all 3. Underestimating top end Revenue by $1 billion represents an error of about 1.7%. This is a thought exercise, and should not be viewed as an argument that a Guidance beat of this degree, should be expected. I agree with the 1.7% per $1B, making Apple's guidance range a spread of 5%, not .5% skipping a decimal as I did. Still small, no? And of course I intended YOY, not sequential for Dec 2011 - 2012, etc. That's what I get for typing on an iPad! Getting both supply and demand right is certainly in Peter's wheelhouse, but still, 5% is overstated as Peter doesn't really expect anything close to the low end of the range.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 21:26:51 GMT -8
Well, Mercel did make a minor math error on the guidance range. Happens to the best of us. As far as iPhone - the compare is YOY. I don't care if bloggers don't get it. WS _does_. Now if Apple does that sequential goalpost-switching deal from fiscal Q1 2013, I'll be a bit worried. Let's be factual on guidance. Never mind beat factor or whatever, actual methodology according to Oppenheimer did not change until fiscal Q1 2013 or so. I sure did. But as I just posted above, does anyone really believe Peter expects the low range of revenue guidance? Accordingly, he's probably thinking $57-$58B, or a very minor 2% precision level.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 21:59:49 GMT -8
Anything short of $58B really isn't good news from Apple IMHO, not with the ASP projections I have in mind (which I think are pretty reasonable).
Right now I'm guessing ASP for iPhone is up a bit (even with $10ish higher deferrals per unit) and iPad up YOY from the year-ago $466.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 22:06:43 GMT -8
Getting both supply and demand right is certainly in Peter's wheelhouse, but still, 5% is overstated as Peter doesn't really expect anything close to the low end of the range. I don't think he does either. The low end of the range is protection against missing on the top end.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 22:10:59 GMT -8
Anything short of $58B really isn't good news from Apple, not with the ASP projections I have in mind (which I think are pretty reasonable). I would agree with that as well. Given the degree of 5S sales over 5C (which I always thought was just an upgraded #2 iPhone over the 5's LTE radio compatibility problems with a TD-CDMA enhancement) iPhone ASP's should go up. I'm expecting an increase of $16 QoQ.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 22:18:46 GMT -8
Updated OI tomorrow suggests Apple Air landing on runway $544.XX or something short of $550.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2013 22:26:37 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 22:43:51 GMT -8
Updated OI tomorrow suggests Apple Air landing on runway $544.XX or something short of $550. I hope it's in that range. Below 545ish would make me wonder some about the short-term.
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