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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2013 1:40:53 GMT -8
Wall Street Journal today: While China Mobile Chief Executive Li Yue remained mum on the iPhone deal on Wednesday morning, the company's Zhejiang unit put a new iPhone 5S reservation advertisement on the front page of its official website Wednesday afternoon. On the page was a picture of a gold iPhone 5S, along with the blurb: "The best iPhone 5S is here. China Mobile's 4G Apple handset is making a shock debut." According to the reservation portal, China Mobile is taking preorders for the 4G iPhone 5S through the website, its 10086 hotline and some dedicated retail outlets in Zhejiang from Dec. 18 to Dec. 31. Buyers will need to subscribe to China Mobile's 4G data plan. China Mobile Zhejiang said it will notify the preorder customers once the iPhone shipment arrives. The 10086 hotline operators in Zhejiang and Suzhou said the company is finalizing the pricing plan for iPhone 5S and it may announce more details later this month. We also have bullish comments from Foxconn: finance.yahoo.com/news/foxconn-sees-15-percent-sales-010929463.html
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Post by Lstream on Dec 20, 2013 4:18:17 GMT -8
Wall Street Journal today: While China Mobile Chief Executive Li Yue remained mum on the iPhone deal on Wednesday morning, the company's Zhejiang unit put a new iPhone 5S reservation advertisement on the front page of its official website Wednesday afternoon. On the page was a picture of a gold iPhone 5S, along with the blurb: "The best iPhone 5S is here. China Mobile's 4G Apple handset is making a shock debut." According to the reservation portal, China Mobile is taking preorders for the 4G iPhone 5S through the website, its 10086 hotline and some dedicated retail outlets in Zhejiang from Dec. 18 to Dec. 31. Buyers will need to subscribe to China Mobile's 4G data plan. China Mobile Zhejiang said it will notify the preorder customers once the iPhone shipment arrives. The 10086 hotline operators in Zhejiang and Suzhou said the company is finalizing the pricing plan for iPhone 5S and it may announce more details later this month. We also have bullish comments from Foxconn: finance.yahoo.com/news/foxconn-sees-15-percent-sales-010929463.htmlAccording to a Chinese poster over at Braeburn, those websites are not taking preorders at all. For me, this is the most plausible explanation for the non launch that I have seen.
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Post by renee on Dec 20, 2013 5:24:46 GMT -8
Maybe Apple and CM are waiting until January 1st to start selling iphones. This would give them plenty of time to sell for Chinese new year, but push revenues into the next quarter (thereby giving Apple a few weeks to measure response before committing to guidance for next quarter).
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 20, 2013 6:11:36 GMT -8
Can someone explain this one to me: BBRY reported HUGE losses of $4.4B for the quarter and 56% drop in revenue (amounting to $8.37/share loss). finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-posts-3q-loss-4-123330232.htmlThey initially dropped in PM to $5.70, but are now trading up at $6.40 +0.25. Most of the sales were the old Blackberry 7 devices. They also announced they're moving production to Foxconn. Read analysts were concerned that Government clients might be concerned with production for the devices being in China. So, with what I see as bad news, how is it trading green?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 20, 2013 6:11:38 GMT -8
Poor Blackberry....we hardly knew ye..... money.cnn.com/2013/12/20/technology/mobile/blackberry-earnings/index.htmlBlackBerry is finally saying goodbye to its terrible 2013 ... with yet another awful quarterly financial report. The struggling smartphone maker posted a whopping $4.4 billion loss during the quarter that ended in November. Excluding charges, BlackBerry lost 67 cents per share, worse than what analysts expected. And sales fell 56% over the year to $1.2 billion. That was also below Wall Street consensus forecasts. BlackBerry (BBRY) stock fell more than 7% in premarket trading following the results. But there was a small bit of good news as well. BlackBerry's cash position at the end of the quarter was $3.2 billion, up from $2.6 billion in the previous quarter. BlackBerry also announced a five-year strategic partnership with Foxconn, the world's largest manufacturer of electronic parts. Under the terms of the deal, Foxconn will develop and manufacture certain BlackBerry devices and manage that inventory itself. The partnership will first focus on a smartphone for Indonesia and other emerging markets, which is set for early 2014. Foxconn is the Apple supplier that has made headlines over the past few years for myriad labor violations in China.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 7:03:13 GMT -8
Gleaning solid information from China media is akin to reading tea leaves. It can be inconsistent, inaccurate and just plain deceptive, as I learned earlier this week. It's correct that no money is yet being accepted and how could it with prices still being finalized?
Enigma, mystery and riddle.
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Post by mightydog on Dec 20, 2013 7:06:14 GMT -8
Maybe Apple and CM are waiting until January 1st to start selling iphones. This would give them plenty of time to sell for Chinese new year, but push revenues into the next quarter (thereby giving Apple a few weeks to measure response before committing to guidance for next quarter). I agree. With each media established deadline that has now passed, without an official announcement, I am more convinced than ever that the launch was always going to be early 2014. There are two events which have always made me think this is true. The first event is Christmas. With production of the 5s and 5c running 24/7 I could never imagine what would be necessary to add the demand of China Mobile to the mix. The second event is Chinese New Year. China Mobile would likely want to have the highest launch demand possible and if you combine the usual anticipated launch demand with the biggest holiday of the year, kaboom! In my mind the launch is near. The delay is not some sort of torture meant to extract deal concessions from Apple but rather an agreed upon contract point meant to manage production, inventory and to provide for the maximum demand at launch.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 20, 2013 7:12:37 GMT -8
Gleaning solid information from China media is akin to reading tea leaves. It can be inconsistent, inaccurate and just plain deceptive, as I learned earlier this week. It's correct that no money is yet being accepted and how could it with prices still being finalized? Enigma, mystery and riddle. To me the point is different. Those Chinese web sites were portrayed as evidence that some kind of launch was happening soon. When in fact, it is just putting your name on a list that you might buy. That is way different than what we normally think of with a pre order. So instead of being a launch signal, it was very likely just a tactic to buy some time to stop customers from switching networks. So for our purposes of trying to decipher when CM is going to be real, I think those sites were entirely meaningless. I think there needs to be a more skeptical eye attached to these signs. The web sites were so trashy that alarm bells should have been going off everywhere that Dec 18 was highly uncertain. And yet the vast majority believed they were some kind of valid signpost when in fact, they were useless.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 7:38:30 GMT -8
So instead of being a launch signal, it was very likely just a tactic to buy some time to stop customers from switching networks. Exactly. These "announcements" are nothing more than trapping deer in your headlights. But worthless? Hardly. There would be no value to CM to deceive the "deer" by promising that which it cannot ultimately deliver. Quite the opposite, failing to deliver would seriously harm CM's customer credibility and could cause an even greater exodus. Apple and CM entered into a definitive agreement, all i's dotted and t's crossed, back in August (when TC met with CM leadership). Official announcement to occur very late in the December quarter (at the earliest), with early to mid January more likely - launch occurring one week later. All stories of needing to finalize pricing, or some other minutiae, are pure, uninformed crap (the media has to say something), impossible to independently verify, so safe to print.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 7:47:00 GMT -8
Spent some loose change on a bet for the $550 pin tomorrow - bought some $547.50c/$550.00 call spreads for .70c Well that was some easy money. "Dr. StrangeAAPL or How I Learnt to Stop Worrying and Love the Friday Pinning"
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 20, 2013 7:47:20 GMT -8
Gleaning solid information from China media is akin to reading tea leaves. It can be inconsistent, inaccurate and just plain deceptive, as I learned earlier this week. It's correct that no money is yet being accepted and how could it with prices still being finalized? Enigma, mystery and riddle. To me the point is different. Those Chinese web sites were portrayed as evidence that some kind of launch was happening soon. When in fact, it is just putting your name on a list that you might buy. That is way different than what we normally think of with a pre order. So instead of being a launch signal, it was very likely just a tactic to buy some time to stop customers from switching networks. So for our purposes of trying to decipher when CM is going to be real, I think those sites were entirely meaningless. I think there needs to be a more skeptical eye attached to these signs. The web sites were so trashy that alarm bells should have been going off everywhere that Dec 18 was highly uncertain. And yet the vast majority believed they were some kind of valid signpost when in fact, they were useless. I'm sure those sites had nothing to do with the "official" CM. Teasing a product you don't actually have does nothing more than salivate the public to go and explore options ... the iPhone is available in China on different carriers. It also weakens your bargaining position so it never made any sense to me. All of this talk of CM takes the focus away from what is important here: Apple's product line is the best I've ever seen it and they are killing it this holiday quarter .... just think how much that cash pile is going to grow when Apple reports in Jan.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 20, 2013 7:53:54 GMT -8
Apple and CM entered into a definitive agreement, all i's dotted and t's crossed, back in August (when TC met with CM leadership). Official announcement to occur very late in the December quarter (at the earliest), with early to mid January more likely - launch occurring one week later. Unless you work at a very high level at either Apple or CM, you cannot know this.
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Post by zzmac on Dec 20, 2013 8:02:39 GMT -8
When Apple announces the deal then it's game on.
Before that who cares??
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 8:07:33 GMT -8
Apple and CM entered into a definitive agreement, all i's dotted and t's crossed, back in August (when TC met with CM leadership). Official announcement to occur very late in the December quarter (at the earliest), with early to mid January more likely - launch occurring one week later. Unless you work at a very high level at either Apple or CM, you cannot know this. Nobody knows anything FOR SURE. But the tiniest bit of manufacturing contract negotiation/implementation experience screams this is the way it is. I stand by my statement.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 8:08:52 GMT -8
When Apple announces the deal then it's game on. Before that who cares?? That's the way CM should be viewed.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 20, 2013 8:11:29 GMT -8
Meanwhile, AAPL is up to 551 amid trading on one of those oh so weird days....quadruple witching, rebalancing of the Nasdaq (done only once a year), and very near the last likely day for many traders to get positions in place for year end window dressing...
the last hour should be kind of fun to watch....
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Post by Lstream on Dec 20, 2013 8:15:13 GMT -8
Unless you work at a very high level at either Apple or CM, you cannot know this. Nobody knows anything FOR SURE. But the tiniest bit of manufacturing contract negotiation/implementation experience screams this is the way it is. I stand by my statement. My experience in those fields is way beyond tiny, and I don't agree. We can agree to disagree.
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Post by The Big Toe on Dec 20, 2013 8:29:28 GMT -8
While I am adjusting my tinfoil hat, could it be possible that CM (PRC) makes a ton of money manipulating AAPL? Buy options of AAPL, leak a posible deal, then once the run up is done, short AAPL, leak that there is no deal. Rince and repeat. That may be a more reliable source of income for CM (and PRC) than selling mobile services and devices.
I am now off to chase unicorns!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 8:40:08 GMT -8
Another approach: Sell AAPL and buy naked calls in AMZN (hitting $400 today). Rename AFB the Amazon Finance Board and make some real money.
Where is the media skepticism on this stock?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Dec 20, 2013 8:42:20 GMT -8
While I am adjusting my tinfoil hat, could it be possible that CM (PRC) makes a ton of money manipulating AAPL? Buy options of AAPL, leak a posible deal, then once the run up is done, short AAPL, leak that there is no deal. Rince and repeat. That may be a more reliable source of income for CM (and PRC) than selling mobile services and devices. I am now off to chase unicorns! LOL. Asked myself the same question this morning.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 20, 2013 8:46:17 GMT -8
Google too. I know people hate when I compare the performance of AAPL and GOOG but the fact is they were both at the same per-share price 18 months ago and now, even with this fall's AAPL bounce, GOOG is still 2x AAPL... We all chose the wrong stock to put our money in over that time period.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 9:15:40 GMT -8
Google too. I know people hate when I compare the performance of AAPL and GOOG but the fact is they were both at the same per-share price 18 months ago and now, even with this fall's AAPL bounce, GOOG is still 2x AAPL... We all chose the wrong stock to put our money in over that time period. You guys are barking up the wrong tree. GOOG has ~334 million shares outstanding. AAPL has ~905 million shares outstanding. The market is valuing Google, the enterprise, at ~$334 billion. The market is valuing Apple, the enterprise, at ~$497 billion. Price per share, as a metric for anything, is meaningless without putting it into context with shares outstanding. I'm getting a headache. Going back to lurk mode.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 20, 2013 9:25:19 GMT -8
Gregg - it's not meaningless at all when it comes to the opportunity cost of an investment. 10k invested in AAPL in June 2012 is now worth about 9350. 10k invested in GOOG at the same time is now worth almost 19k.
It's clear to me that we all chose poorly over the last 18 months when we picked AAPL instead of GOOG. To not recognize the relevance of that is ignore a potentially educational mistake and to risk repeating it again. The question is, what will the next 18 months bring? The market chose to value GOOG very differently than AAPL over that time period -- will that change, or continue.
To bring up the market cap or number of shares outstanding is irrelevant to the point I'm making.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 9:47:21 GMT -8
Gregg - it's not meaningless at all when it comes to the opportunity cost of an investment. 10k invested in AAPL in June 2012 is now worth about 9350. 10k invested in GOOG at the same time is now worth almost 19k. It's clear to me that we all chose poorly over the last 18 months when we picked AAPL instead of GOOG. To not recognize the relevance of that is ignore a potentially educational mistake and to risk repeating it again. The question is, what will the next 18 months bring? The market chose to value GOOG very differently than AAPL over that time period -- will that change, or continue. To bring up the market cap or number of shares outstanding is irrelevant to the point I'm making.It was not irrelevant to the original state that compared AAPL's price to GOOG's price. I've stated on several occasions that Apple failed to perform during fiscal 2013, and that this led to AAPL's decline from $705. GOOG, on the other hand, did perform, which why GOOG went up. Cash rotated out of AAPL (Institutional ownership dropped from 70+% to today's 61%). Based on past PERFORMANCE, both GOOG and AAPL are fairly valued. Based on future estimates AAPL will go up dramatically over the next year, while GOZOG (based on its growth prospects) will not. We did choose poorly, and did so because we first accused the bogeyman for AAPL's decline, and failed to discern a change in Apple's fundamentals. Its all in Apple's and Google's 10Qs.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 9:47:38 GMT -8
Gregg - it's not meaningless at all when it comes to the opportunity cost of an investment. 10k invested in AAPL in June 2012 is now worth about 9350. 10k invested in GOOG at the same time is now worth almost 19k. It's clear to me that we all chose poorly over the last 18 months when we picked AAPL instead of GOOG. To not recognize the relevance of that is ignore a potentially educational mistake and to risk repeating it again. The question is, what will the next 18 months bring? The market chose to value GOOG very differently than AAPL over that time period -- will that change, or continue. To bring up the market cap or number of shares outstanding is irrelevant to the point I'm making. But the point is to look back and learn....did you make a mistake picking AAPL instead of GOOG 18 months ago? If so, what? Sometimes you can make the right decision but get the wrong result...it doesn't mean the decision was wrong. Also, the most important question is where will AAPL be in 18 months and are there any better/safer stocks to invest in for the next 18 months? Is GOOG better? If so, why?
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Post by nagrani on Dec 20, 2013 9:53:39 GMT -8
Gregg what is your 6month and 12 month price target for apple?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 9:54:55 GMT -8
P/E Ratios are being looked at, of course. Yeah, I'm a little bitter about Mr. Market, an institution that values companies by its own set of undisclosed rules.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 9:57:27 GMT -8
Google too. I know people hate when I compare the performance of AAPL and GOOG but the fact is they were both at the same per-share price 18 months ago and now, even with this fall's AAPL bounce, GOOG is still 2x AAPL... We all chose the wrong stock to put our money in over that time period. You guys are barking up the wrong tree. GOOG has ~334 million shares outstanding. AAPL has ~905 million shares outstanding. The market is valuing Google, the enterprise, at ~$334 billion. The market is valuing Apple, the enterprise, at ~$497 billion. Price per share, as a metric for anything, is meaningless without putting it into context with shares outstanding. I'm getting a headache. Going back to lurk mode. Only fools would look at share price in isolation. Do you think we don't give regard to shares outstanding? I can't believe you typed this.
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Post by macwire on Dec 20, 2013 10:20:09 GMT -8
People keep saying it tho. That's prolly why Greg flagged that comment. I've done that a few times too.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 20, 2013 10:47:12 GMT -8
So instead of being a launch signal, it was very likely just a tactic to buy some time to stop customers from switching networks. Exactly. These "announcements" are nothing more than trapping deer in your headlights. But worthless? Hardly. There would be no value to CM to deceive the "deer" by promising that which it cannot ultimately deliver. Quite the opposite, failing to deliver would seriously harm CM's customer credibility and could cause an even greater exodus. Yep. It's clear to me that we all chose poorly over the last 18 months when we picked AAPL instead of GOOG. Well if you are a swing or position trader with benefit of hindsight, perhaps. But I stand by my FA view that Google is in a lot of trouble. Just because you win 6 games of Russian Roulette in a row doesn't mean that's a smart game to play. And the Hindenberg had 62 successful flights. I'd imagine the investors in the Zeppelin Company were crowing, "Ha ha, and the dummkopfs said a hydrogen airship wasn't practical! Today Germany, tomorrow, the world!"
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