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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 26, 2013 4:29:16 GMT -8
Boxing Day - lots of folks in Europe still out - markets there closed. Still not seeing any numbers on China Mobile pre-orders...perhaps someone here has a better handle on that. Slightly green in pre-market. In the general market, the only economic news out is at 8:30 am today on Initial Claims. Should be somewhat of a quiet day given many folks have taken the balance of the week off but one never knows. Tomorrow is PIN day...I'm sure someone will look it up later and tell us where that stands as well.
Hope everyone got what they had wished for at Christmas! Onto New Year's celebrations!
(By the way - gotta love the finger pointing between AMZN and UPS over late package delivery. I see it this way, who chooses to send things UPS? AMZN chooses it. Therefore the buck stops there. It's their responsibility to create the whole customer experience by who THEY choose to partner with on deliveries. As a customer, I interface with THEM. When I have an issue (ie a missing package) with a retailer - my fight is not with UPS - it is with the retailer....if THEY see a problem with the deliverer then THEY are the ones who need to deal with it since THEY are the ones who chose it. People should be furious with AMZN and direct anger at them, not UPS. IMHO )
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Post by macwire on Dec 26, 2013 6:02:00 GMT -8
I don't think there will be any numbers announced.
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Post by macwire on Dec 26, 2013 6:49:56 GMT -8
Aapl. Sigh.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 26, 2013 7:08:42 GMT -8
I hope the market is not going to just piss away our recent gains, but I wouldn't be at all surprised.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 26, 2013 7:21:48 GMT -8
What is Max Pain for tomorrow? Is it $560 ?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 26, 2013 7:49:47 GMT -8
Lots of folks still benefiting from the 562 gap....bigger money wants to see if we can stay above that while traders move in and out...watch 562
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Post by macwire on Dec 26, 2013 7:55:14 GMT -8
Not to bemoan the point but stock is so unloved. It's not like they just tapped the biggest market in the world or anything...LETS ALL GO BUY TWTR INSTEAD!!!
(Before anyone bitches to go ahead and do so, I did but sold on Tue. I have gone in the last year from trading all aapl to basically 35 percent aapl....but it still makes zero sense to me how the stock moves sometimes)
Anyone ready to buy up twtr loss per share when it reports?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 8:59:57 GMT -8
Not to bemoan the point but stock is so unloved. No it isn't. AAPL is worth what management Guided. Management only Guided Flat YOY growth (Net Income). This should be the last of the poor results quarters. Given F2013 poor performance, starting with FQ2/2014 (March quarter), the YoY compares are going to be very, VERY good. Management's Guidance for FQ2 is the thing to watch. A smart investor would be wise to hang on to his/her hat after that.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 9:00:07 GMT -8
Not to bemoan the point but stock is so unloved. It's not like they just tapped the biggest market in the world or anything...LETS ALL GO BUY TWTR INSTEAD!!! (Before anyone bitches to go ahead and do so, I did but sold on Tue. I have gone in the last year from trading all aapl to basically 35 percent aapl....but it still makes zero sense to me how the stock moves sometimes) Anyone ready to buy up twtr loss per share when it reports? It's up $200 since June...not sure how high you think it should go, but nothing goes up in a straight line. It's also near a 15 PE for a company that hasn't shown any EPS growth in over a year. I'm quite happy ending the year near $600, it could be much worse (see June)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 26, 2013 9:53:27 GMT -8
That's odd. You figure if an Apple Retail Store glass door fell on a customer as supposedly happened in Maryland, some reputable news source like at least a local paper would be all over it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 26, 2013 10:07:47 GMT -8
Hey Mav,
You are the guru on regional China Mobile websites. Any sense how pre-order traffic is going? Seems awfully quiet on that front...(but we've all been distracted by holiday fever).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 26, 2013 10:11:37 GMT -8
No guru, just checked em a lot.
This must still be the "pre-registration" phase as the joint press release put it. No word on subsidies yet.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 10:26:47 GMT -8
That's odd. You figure if an Apple Retail Store glass door fell on a customer as supposedly happened in Maryland, some reputable news source like at least a local paper would be all over it. I went to the originating site for that story, then followed several links to articles written by its staff. "American Live Wire" is not what an intelligent reader would deem a reliable news source. Rather than describe the tripe it posts under misleading headlines, you should make your own determination. Just be prepared for stories headlined (as one is) "Obama prepared to terminate 16 States".
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 26, 2013 11:17:06 GMT -8
Question for the technicians among us: If AAPL doesn't break through low 570s next week, are we going to have a double top on our hands?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 26, 2013 11:54:23 GMT -8
Well, charts are hardly ever all bullish or all bearish, right?
It's resistance until a breakout. It's consolidation until a breakdown. Right now, AAPL is very bullish until we see otherwise (intermediate timeframe), and still micro bearish by at least one metric (daily MACD-h).
AAPL is in an interesting spot right now - defending a decent gap from about 550, with various technicians saying 562ish should ideally hold.
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Post by macwire on Dec 26, 2013 12:12:43 GMT -8
Question for the technicians among us: If AAPL doesn't break through low 570s next week, are we going to have a double top on our hands? Leaning toward yes.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 26, 2013 13:43:57 GMT -8
Anybody know anything about gift cards and when they can be counted as revenue by AAPL?
Is it once they have been redeemed (codes entered into iTunes store) or when the actual product is bought/downloaded?
I m sitting on about $150 in iTunes gift cards and will do what I can to get these registered as revenue in this qtr. Maybe Oppy will give me a shout out on the conference call if this $150 in cards puts them over their goals.
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Post by michelc on Dec 26, 2013 13:54:02 GMT -8
Gift card are revenue only when used
If not use it is a deferred income on the balance sheet
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 14:55:28 GMT -8
Anybody know anything about gift cards and when they can be counted as revenue by AAPL? Is it once they have been redeemed (codes entered into iTunes store) or when the actual product is bought/downloaded? I m sitting on about $150 in iTunes gift cards and will do what I can to get these registered as revenue in this qtr. Maybe Oppy will give me a shout out on the conference call if this $150 in cards puts them over their goals. For Apple (or anyone else) gift cards represent an obligation to perform at some undetermined time in the future. As such Apple records the obligation as a contingent liability on its Balance Sheet. When the gift card is redeemed the revenue is recognized when the item purchased is delivered. The cash used to purchase the gift card is recognized at the time card is purchased.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 16:38:27 GMT -8
Amazon drops the ball with Christmas deliveries and climbs over $400. Is there ANYTHING that the stock market gets right about valuation? I'd love to short it, but I don't dare.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 18:21:17 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 26, 2013 18:37:24 GMT -8
Still not seeing any numbers on China Mobile pre-orders... Still? Pre-orders started on 12/25.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 20:58:26 GMT -8
Weekly OI appears to put AAPL below $560 tomorrow. Bullish if over, I suppose. This week is a bit less reliable given the CM news that is a catalyst.
Note to weekly gamblers: Please, go bet on the ponies: You are no friend of AAPL longs.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2013 21:20:29 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 26, 2013 21:24:39 GMT -8
Yes weekly options have some effect, increasing the net selling pressure towards the end of the week. But the real problem with AAPL is that there has been very little interest from buyers. With everything else, including the indexes, screaming up to new highs, there is little desire or urgency to buy apple, which has been a laggard in the past year's extreme bull market. Only the diehard faithful (us) and smart number crunchers (Icahn) see the potential and care enough to buy. Everyone else has out their money to better use in twtr and fb and tsla and spy and nikkei and whatever else has outperformed aapl in the past 18 months.
As far as I can tell, this will continue until it doesn't... In other words, because I believe apple will finally start to grow eps again this spring, the stock price should appreciate with it and hopefully the people returning to the stock will create some panic-buying push-ups that should take us higher quite quickly.
My biggest worry right now is that the broader market might crash just as AAPL is finally starting to perform. I do not believe apple can see the 30% appreciation it deserves if the market corrects 20%
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 26, 2013 22:26:39 GMT -8
Question for the technicians among us: If AAPL doesn't break through low 570s next week, are we going to have a double top on our hands? I wouldn't put a "next week" label on it. More like, we want resistance to break and support to hold, but it doesn't have to be in that order. Short-term: bullish above 558-560. Intermediate-term: bullish above 530-ish.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 26, 2013 22:32:10 GMT -8
My biggest worry right now is that the broader market might crash just as AAPL is finally starting to perform. I do not believe apple can see the 30% appreciation it deserves if the market corrects 20% Maybe; maybe not. AAPL already crashed and recovered. The market has some catching up to do. I'd settle for a 10% market correction, but until support breaks decisively (not for one mere day), it's not happening.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 26, 2013 22:42:41 GMT -8
F-ing obnoxious share price... I honestly don't know if we're in a "new" bull market or a bubble. I'm jaded enough that I certainly wouldn't recognize the former if it bit me ...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 26, 2013 23:50:23 GMT -8
My biggest worry right now is that the broader market might crash just as AAPL is finally starting to perform. I do not believe apple can see the 30% appreciation it deserves if the market corrects 20% Maybe; maybe not. AAPL already crashed and recovered. The market has some catching up to do. I'd settle for a 10% market correction, but until support breaks decisively (not for one mere day), it's not happening. A decent sentiment/megatrend could allow AAPL to see some sector-of-one rotation/flight-to-AAPL-safety. I mean, big buyback program, stable company with bucketloads of cash, and dividends. ;D If there's one thing the markets haven't been this year, it's weak...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 26, 2013 23:52:06 GMT -8
AMZN = crazy bubble IMHO. With all that implies - you may have all of one day to short it (maybe no real warning signs that day!) before some super-sharp move that takes everyone by surprise, and it might not even be the day after earnings. Eh, who knows.
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