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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 27, 2013 4:01:56 GMT -8
Not seeing any news on AAPL this morning. Should be quiet but of course given that it is Friday - the PIN will come into play. According to my mobile app for Max Pain - it's showing $560 as the PIN but who knows. Still not seeing anything out of China re pre-orders .... so either we drift to make the MMs richer/happier or some institution comes in to begin establishing a position and lifts the stock. It's anyone's guess. Again, my extreme frustration with AMZN and TWTR...having market moves on an uneventful day (or even a day when there is bad news associated with them) that are exorbitant .... and I can't find the kid who will scream out that the king isn't wearing any clothes! Where the hell is that kid?!
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Post by macwire on Dec 27, 2013 4:17:58 GMT -8
Agree. Looks like IBM double bottomed if anyone cares...
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 27, 2013 5:10:15 GMT -8
Well - TWTR's parabolic and unfounded rise gives forth the first of downgrades this morning. Let the fun begin. Hey fellas! Come over to my side of the water...it's nice on this end...this company makes money...put your dollars HERE!
One more thing - and I will stop talking about other stocks - AMZN putting out stats on how many Prime Members they signed up. Who cares? You weren't able to get it to the end customer on time regardless of your guarantees so WTF!? How many Kindles did you sell, Jeff? What's your margin on THOSE?! Bezos just spins things and the WS sheep just follow....where the hell is that kid to scream out that the king isn't wearing SHIT!
Ok ... I'm done. Need to go exercise and get rid of some of this morning energy. Don't think today is my day to save the world.
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coma
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Post by coma on Dec 27, 2013 5:46:13 GMT -8
Don't think today is my day to save the world. You started off great but your follow through sucked.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 5:52:02 GMT -8
I'm with you Phoebes. When AAPL soared to $700 with a P/E of 18, Melissa Lee screamed "It's a Bubble." I guess P/E's over 1,000 are ok now...her silence is deafening. I'm not expecting much today. Has AAPL reported a deal with CM yet?
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Post by nagrani on Dec 27, 2013 6:04:55 GMT -8
I think apple hangs in the 560-580 range till mid jan and then we jump to 600 post earnings. Apple is now a show me stock
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 6:22:19 GMT -8
I think apple hangs in the 560-580 range till mid jan and then we jump to 600 post earnings. Apple is now a show me stock Probably right, unless Tim announces revised guidance. Don't hold your breath given CM sales are not in FQ1.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 27, 2013 6:48:28 GMT -8
One more thing - and I will stop talking about other stocks - AMZN putting out stats on how many Prime Members they signed up. Who cares? You weren't able to get it to the end customer on time regardless of your guarantees so WTF!? How many Kindles did you sell, Jeff? What's your margin on THOSE?! Bezos just spins things and the WS sheep just follow....where the hell is that kid to scream out that the king isn't wearing SHIT! Ok ... I'm done. Need to go exercise and get rid of some of this morning energy. Don't think today is my day to save the world. Apparently, the root cause for this is demand that greatly exceeded forecasts. Like it or not, Wall Street values AMZN on sales growth, so this issue is actually a positive sign for them, not negative. Amazon continues to take share from traditional retailers. This is not the issue that will poke a pin in the "bubble".
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Post by macwire on Dec 27, 2013 6:56:35 GMT -8
lol aapl. Pathetic
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2013 7:30:58 GMT -8
Apple to $1,000 in 2014Rocco Pendola article in The Street SIAP Quite a reversal from his forecasts from the past. Color me skeptical for $1000/share in 2014. But I would be ecstatic if it happens.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2013 7:54:09 GMT -8
Note to self.
Max Pain at 560-565 last Friday for today. Should have sold at 570 on Tuesday. Lesson learned with small loss.
Pinning is alive and well in the weekly world of options. Buy on Friday and sell on Tuesday.
Will be given the opportunity next week. I do enjoy playing with loose change.
Tuesday Jan 14 can't come soon enough.
I do think 2014 will be a good year for Apple longs, but remember we won't see it until Jan 2015.
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Dec 27, 2013 8:31:20 GMT -8
Don't know about China but apparently demand is still high in the States.
Teen Arrested For Pulling Knife on Dad After Not Getting iPhone for Xmas by JON DAVID KAHN 26 Dec 2013 BROCKTON - A Massachusetts teenager was arrested on Christmas day after police say he pulled a knife on his father because he did not receive an iPhone he wanted for Christmas. 18-year-old Alexander Torres was charged with assault and battery with a dangerous weapon, assault and battery and malicious damage to a motor vehicle, according to Brockton Police Lt. Bruce Zeidman. “The suspect was fighting with everyone in the house and he pulled out a knife on his father,” Zeidman said. Torres' father was uninjured but the teen's 24-year-old stepbrother was sent to Good Samaritan Medical Center, although police did not provide information as to why. The teenage Torres was scheduled to be arraigned in Brockton District Court yesterday.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 27, 2013 8:52:49 GMT -8
$560 pin in full force. Bought some shares @ $559.85. Will sell Monday/Tuesday when we normalize.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 8:54:14 GMT -8
Note to self: Stay away from stocks where weekly options are out of control, filling the casino with gamblers so MM can make money on the backs of AAPL longs. If weeklies are constraining AAPL from rising (absent catalysts), then the option burn imposes additional cost to LEAP holders.
Enough about Max Pain from me, at least. Pogo modified: We have met the enemy and he is u.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 9:05:30 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2013 9:12:28 GMT -8
More evidence that an Apple TV is coming. I still think it won't happen until middle of 2015. No need to speed it up. Start slowly with iPad then iMac. Saw a 4k Samsung 55 at Sears for $3k. I was very impressed with the resolution. I see an updated Apple TV box with gaming first next year.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Dec 27, 2013 9:32:43 GMT -8
I think there are three kinds of people in the market. There are the long term investors, the traders and the noise traders. The long term investors are looking at fundamentals and to some extent the technical behavior. When the fundamentals are attractive, they will use technical analysis to time their move into or out of the stock. They are concerned with "why" a stock moves
The traders are concerned with momentum. Obviously, technical analysis provides a more sophisticated basis for predicting momentum, but they generally do not care why the stock moves, more "how" it moves.
The noise traders are the least knowledgeable and most predictable. They trade on greed and fear. For them, it is as much about ego as money. They re going to follow and invest in whatever allows them to feel good about themselves. You could see their presence when Ichan moved the stock 25 points. You can assail them with knowledge and logic but you would be more productive trying to stop the tides.
There will always be stocks like Twitter and Amazon and Tesla, just like there will always be fear and greed. If Apple split 10:1 these people would drive us to 100 in weeks. But then what? We would have a stock that is worth 40% more but could drop in half on a whim.
I think of it like this. The value of the stock (i,e, the ability of the stock to maintain or increase its share price) is a function of the percentage of ownership by the three classes of investors. I think that the past year with the combination of Apples inexplicable drop and the gains in the S&P have greatly improved the quality of the stocks owners. Twitter and Amazon and others are doing us a favor by drawing away the noise traders and improving the quality of Apple ownership.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 9:33:46 GMT -8
More evidence that an Apple TV is coming. I still think it won't happen until middle of 2015. No need to speed it up. Start slowly with iPad then iMac. Saw a 4k Samsung 55 at Sears for $3k. I was very impressed with the resolution. I see a lot of rumors and speculation, I not see any "evidence".
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2013 9:38:44 GMT -8
I don't think we will see evidence, but there is enough movement in this market that points to 4k screens.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 27, 2013 10:57:22 GMT -8
This means nothing, of course, but I dropped by my local Apple Store and had a visit with the assistant manager, whom I've come to know pretty well over the past year.
I asked him to give me a sense of his take on business this holiday season vs. the past two (his experience period in the store). He says this year was different in a few ways:
1) He believes store traffic was no heavier but sales activity was certainly heavier. Last year the iMac problem left a bit of a bad vibe but this year everything was in stock and everything was selling. He said foot traffic is getting to be deceptive because a lot of people are getting comfortable with buying on line for instore pickup. If they don't require setup help, these people are in and out of the store in five minutes...sometimes less....and with maybe a thousand dollars of purchases!
2) gift cards on the 26th were in full force. Here was more of the lookey lou kind of shopper. "I have this card but what to buy...what product, what color, what case"? he says staff time per customer on the 26th to the 30th will usually be higher than staff time per customer on the 20 throug the 24th. Set-ups, choices, follow ups.
3) He thinks the Ipad Air is probably the biggest surprise of the year, period. Everyone knew the phones would sell. The Macs do what the Macs do. The Ipad mini retina had a group of people waiting for it, and that was expected. But the Ipad Air could have been a big hit or just an imcremental upgrade product. It certainly proved to be the former....Many, many people buying it on impulse or moving up from the Mini retina choice
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2013 11:02:28 GMT -8
Good report Red.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 11:10:09 GMT -8
This means nothing, of course, but I dropped by my local Apple Store and had a visit with the assistant manager, whom I've come to know pretty well over the past year. I asked him to give me a sense of his take on business this holiday season vs. the past two (his experience period in the store). He says this year was different in a few ways: 1) He believes store traffic was no heavier but sales activity was certainly heavier. Last year the iMac problem left a bit of a bad vibe but this year everything was in stock and everything was selling. He said foot traffic is getting to be deceptive because a lot of people are getting comfortable with buying on line for instore pickup. If they don't require setup help, these people are in and out of the store in five minutes...sometimes less....and with maybe a thousand dollars of purchases! 2) gift cards on the 26th were in full force. Here was more of the lookey lou kind of shopper. "I have this card but what to buy...what product, what color, what case"? he says staff time per customer on the 26th to the 30th will usually be higher than staff time per customer on the 20 throug the 24th. Set-ups, choices, follow ups. 3) He thinks the Ipad Air is probably the biggest surprise of the year, period. Everyone knew the phones would sell. The Macs do what the Macs do. The Ipad mini retina had a group of people waiting for it, and that was expected. But the Ipad Air could have been a big hit or just an imcremental upgrade product. It certainly proved to be the former....Many, many people buying it on impulse or moving up from the Mini retina choice In November my father's wife chose to get a new mini vs having her current iPad repaired. Then yesterday my brother-in-law bought his first iPad. He called to talk about the different options (was looking at the 16mb mini due to price). He ended up getting the Air with 32mb.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2013 11:24:00 GMT -8
I played with my wife's mini Retina last night. I think the my Air is much faster.
The Air is one mean tablet. Apple needs to now fix the iOS bugs. Safari and apps crash much too often.
On a side note both of my nephews and nieces got iPad Minis for Christmas because the parents got tired of sharing.
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2013 12:05:21 GMT -8
I played with my wife's mini Retina last night. I think the my Air is much faster. The Air is one mean tablet. Apple needs to now fix the iOS bugs. Safari and apps crash much too often. On a side note both of my nephews and nieces got iPad Minis for Christmas because the parents got tired of sharing. I don't know what would cause your wife's mini Retina to be much slower. They both have the same cpu, but the mini is clocked @ 1.3GHz. with the 1 GB ram stacked on the SOC and the Air @ 1.4 GHz. with a separate 1 GB ram chip. Bench mark testing was on par for both the Mini and Air. On a side note, I played the "misunderstood" part at our family Christmas gathering. I video taped snippets on my phone, loaded into iMove on my iPad using airdrop, edited them and exported a video in HD to my camera roll. Takes only minutes and I didn't read any instructions at all, very intuitive interface. iMovie is unreal and powerful on my iPad mini.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 27, 2013 12:06:19 GMT -8
I loved Red's store report and I love the iPad Air, so don't take this the wrong way...
And, please correct me if I'm wrong... but considering they didn't raise guidance, don't we already know roughly how much revenue they will report for the Dec quarter? Something within a couple of percent of the top of their guidance range. So even with iPad air being a big hit it's not like we're going to get an earnings surprise in January. The only positive catalyst would be March quarter guidance, and that's all about China Mobile. Right?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 12:13:13 GMT -8
In November my father's wife chose to get a new mini vs having her current iPad repaired. Then yesterday my brother-in-law bought his first iPad. He called to talk about the different options (was looking at the 16mb mini due to price). He ended up getting the Air with 32mb. Agreed. The 32GB is the sweet spot this year, and supports my iPad ASP at $500 for FQ1 2014. That may be low.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 12:18:04 GMT -8
I loved Red's store report and I love the iPad Air, so don't take this the wrong way... And, please correct me if I'm wrong... but considering they didn't raise guidance, don't we already know roughly how much revenue they will report for the Dec quarter? Something within a couple of percent of the top of their guidance range. So even with iPad air being a big hit it's not like we're going to get an earnings surprise in January. The only positive catalyst would be March quarter guidance, and that's all about China Mobile. Right? It's too early for Apple to revise guidance, if they do at all. I think Oppie felt good about 57-58B in Sales (few expected 55-56B) for Dec. quarter. A 5% beat is 60B in Sales (57.5 * 1.05). Given the hit of the iPad Air (and more 5s than 5c, producing higher ASPs), could Apple see a 5% uptick in Revs. if demand proved stronger for iPad and iPhones? Yeah, sure. But I'm not predicting another Xmas gift from Tim w/out CM in FQ1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2013 12:23:50 GMT -8
I played with my wife's mini Retina last night. I think the my Air is much faster. The Air is one mean tablet. Apple needs to now fix the iOS bugs. Safari and apps crash much too often. On a side note both of my nephews and nieces got iPad Minis for Christmas because the parents got tired of sharing. I have both Sponge, and I don't notice any difference in speed. Are you playing some Sponge Bob game? ;D Wow! AMZN is below $400 -- what a steal!!! Anyone buying? /s
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 27, 2013 12:36:04 GMT -8
I played with my wife's mini Retina last night. I think the my Air is much faster. The Air is one mean tablet. Apple needs to now fix the iOS bugs. Safari and apps crash much too often. On a side note both of my nephews and nieces got iPad Minis for Christmas because the parents got tired of sharing. I have both Sponge, and I don't notice any difference in speed. Are you playing some Sponge Bob game? ;D Wow! AMZN is below $400 -- what a steal!!! Anyone buying? /s won't touch AMZN until the truth is out....real earnings. I own some shares with a cost basis of $70 so those just sit and look pretty, but adding? No. As for the Sponge and the seeming difference in Ipad Air vs. Ipad Mini speeds....he is playing against himself on some games and having a little trouble with a pad in each hand....
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2013 12:36:44 GMT -8
I loved Red's store report and I love the iPad Air, so don't take this the wrong way... And, please correct me if I'm wrong... but considering they didn't raise guidance, don't we already know roughly how much revenue they will report for the Dec quarter? Something within a couple of percent of the top of their guidance range. So even with iPad air being a big hit it's not like we're going to get an earnings surprise in January. The only positive catalyst would be March quarter guidance, and that's all about China Mobile. Right? If I remember guidance was revised on 9/23 about a week before the end of the quarter. So unless monster numbers roll in from Christmas sales, I am not expecting revised guidance for FQ 1 14. It wouldn't hurt my feelings if I am wrong.
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