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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:38:28 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. Who knows...when there's big money at play, people will do anything. And if anyone thinks leaks never happen, I have a bridge to sell you.
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Post by podboy on Jan 3, 2014 9:39:45 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. I don't understand this huge sell off but I have my tinfoil hat on now thanks to you.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:40:29 GMT -8
News flash: Apple didn't start trading at $400. Your 40% in 6 months is a ridiculous measuring stick. What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2014 9:43:41 GMT -8
The evil Overlord gene in me says that since we know December earnings can't be "bad" (they may be just o.k....but can't be really bad), and CM is actually going to start selling iphones to a minimum interested group of 50 million people (my wag), this is the final opportunity for the dark forces to squeeze out every bullish retail investor. And the squeeze is on.....(maybe a margin call or two on the way)....
Pretty soon we trade at 13 times trailing earnings and then we post $15.00 in a few weeks, with guidance for 48 billion in revenues or some such......and every little guy, every January bullish call holder......has been pushed out, decimated, squeezed to death....so exhausting!
And then, suddenly, things look better.....
But the next ten days? Ugh!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:43:50 GMT -8
I shouldn't be, not after reading the same tripe from the same people all these years, but I'm shocked by some of the sky is falling, TC's job is on the line, bullshit we're seeing today. The really shocking thing is that these half-assed claims come from people that refuse to do any due diligence, and couldn't manage a chain of lemonade stands, let alone the world's largest technology firm.
This MAR quarter is going to have the largest carrier in Japan in the mix, as well as the largest carrier in the world.
I don't care about weak kneed, lazy traders that refuse to do any due diligence, or what their fears are about the MAR quarter. Other than their own fears they bring nothing to the table to support those fears.
Historically (I know, there are people that don't like history, they don't like to do research either) the MAR quarter drops ~5% from DEC results. That data point comes from 9+ years of observation.
You can rant and rave, but you can't ignore FACTS, well you can, but not if you want to be taken seriously.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:43:52 GMT -8
What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. So what is an appropriate context? You're only happy if we're at an ATH? Apple is up on a 3 year, 5 year and 10 year basis...basically anything over 2 years. I just don't get how people are so miserable all the time here...we're up almost 200 points in 6 months and then we go down 20 points and everyone screams the market is rigged. It's a little sad if you ask me. Yes we're down from our ATH, but Apple also had a bad 2013 so I don't see anything unfair about the price.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:44:18 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. I don't understand this huge sell off but I have my tinfoil hat on now thanks to you. More likely, it's what another posted, part de-leveraging and my speculation, part tax deferral. Who knows what else. I very much doubt this is earnings-related, which I expect will be more than fine. However, it's possible CM is disappointing some expectations with insiders?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 3, 2014 9:45:14 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. Is there any possibility that institutions are just driving price down to load up before earnings?
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Post by macwire on Jan 3, 2014 9:47:01 GMT -8
What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. Also implies catching bottom as well.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 3, 2014 9:47:59 GMT -8
What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Exactly...maybe we should use 5 years as a measuring stick? Or 3 years? Or 10 years? Usually people use multiple timeframes to assess an investment's performance, and benchmark it against the S&P and/or it's sector to evaluate it's performance compared to peers. 5 years AAPL +500% SPY +105% NAS +169% 3 years AAPL +61.5% SPY +45.5% NAS +55.7% 1 year AAPL +0% SPY +28.75 % NAS +39% Doing so reveals that yes, AAPL has performed well in the past and on the long term, but serious underperformance in the last year and 2 years would give anyone doubts about putting new money into the stock. Imagine you are an experienced investor (but not an apple-centric one like us) who just received a windfall inheritance and need to figure out where to invest it. Why in hell would you choose to put it in aapl as opposed to one of the indexes or any number of better performing equities? Because over 5 years or 10 years aapl has done better? Nope. In fact, looking at those longer term timeframes would give more credence to the "apple's best days are behind it" or "apple without Steve Jobs isn't doing well" narratives. The only thing that will turn this ship around is earnings growth surprises and/or explosive new products.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 9:48:05 GMT -8
Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. So what is an appropriate context? You're only happy if we're at an ATH? Apple is up on a 3 year, 5 year and 10 year basis...basically anything over 2 years. I just don't get how people are so miserable all the time here...we're up almost 200 points in 6 months and then we go down 20 points and everyone screams the market is rigged. It's a little sad if you ask me. Yes we're down from our ATH, but Apple also had a bad 2013 so I don't see anything unfair about the price. Look up the word "context," as it applies to AAPL and other stocks. You clearly don't "get" most things here.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 3, 2014 9:51:05 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. Is there any possibility that institutions are just driving price down to load up before earnings? Jason Schwarz used to post articles about the slingshot effect into AAPL earnings.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 3, 2014 9:51:36 GMT -8
Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. So what is an appropriate context? You're only happy if we're at an ATH? Apple is up on a 3 year, 5 year and 10 year basis...basically anything over 2 years. I just don't get how people are so miserable all the time here...we're up almost 200 points in 6 months and then we go down 20 points and everyone screams the market is rigged. It's a little sad if you ask me. Yes we're down from our ATH, but Apple also had a bad 2013 so I don't see anything unfair about the price. The appropriate context is that the market has been screaming to new highs, particularly anything in tech besides AAPL. If AAPL were flat for the year and the market were flat as well, it wouldn't be so abysmal. Instead, AAPL has been one of the worst performing large cap tech stocks for a while, and may continue to be so.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2014 9:51:55 GMT -8
Meanwhile, there is pretty good news out there on iBeacon, product outlooks, iphone deals, etc. The sky isn't falling, its just grey.... appleinsider.com/
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Jan 3, 2014 9:55:17 GMT -8
I don't understand this huge sell off but I have my tinfoil hat on now thanks to you. More likely, it's what another posted, part de-leveraging and my speculation, part tax deferral. Who knows what else. I very much doubt this is earnings-related, which I expect will be more than fine. However, it's possible CM is disappointing some expectations with insiders? Maybe also part Icahn unloading some/all of his position, after TC "dissed" him earlier this week. He is buying a big position in HTZ, so maybe he needs some cash.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:03:40 GMT -8
Apparently AAPL has never started out a year down two days in a row in its history as a public company. I guess there is a first time for everything. Not true. January 2, 3 and 4, 2008, and January 2, 3, and 4, 2013. In both cases AAPL finished the week lower than it did on the last Friday of December. The important data point seems to be whether the trading started in December. Observation: With one exception (2008 - start of the bank meltdown) the first FULL January trading week, traded UP. My take (based on trading volumes and day of week that the holidays fell on) is that institutional decision makers have yet to return to their respective desks. By and large, this leaves trading to Retail accounts that don't have the resources to bid AAPL up. Thanks for starting the discussion Rob.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2014 10:04:31 GMT -8
There is a lack of any real news regarding Apple. Momentum is not on AAPL's side right now .... investors care only about "What have you done for me lately ? " and in that scenario APPL is not looking too good.
The only thing that is going to help before earnings is real news like a product announcement, earnings revision etc .... I don't see any of that coming so it's hang on for earnings.
I understand that people are really interested in EPS growth as I am but IMHO financial engineering can do enough to get us to a new ATH. Buybacks as well as a larger dividend should propel AAPL in '14.
There is simply too much negative sentiment on this stock right now .... hard for an optimist like myself to understand ...
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 3, 2014 10:04:58 GMT -8
Well if Icahn were to unload you could expect further down once it's announced. Traders will just hit it on that news. Logical? No but it will still happen. So I hope it's not the case....and don't think it is.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:06:46 GMT -8
An earnings CC is not that important. I think it's going to be pivotal inflection point for near term 6 month time period. Very good Macwire. Can't say the same for Appledoc.
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Post by mace on Jan 3, 2014 10:10:09 GMT -8
What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Exactly...maybe we should use 5 years as a measuring stick? Or 3 years? Or 10 years? For traders, it starts from the day he opens the position (long or short).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:10:22 GMT -8
So what is an appropriate context? You're only happy if we're at an ATH? Apple is up on a 3 year, 5 year and 10 year basis...basically anything over 2 years. I just don't get how people are so miserable all the time here...we're up almost 200 points in 6 months and then we go down 20 points and everyone screams the market is rigged. It's a little sad if you ask me. Yes we're down from our ATH, but Apple also had a bad 2013 so I don't see anything unfair about the price. Look up the word "context," as it applies to AAPL and other stocks. You clearly don't "get" most things here. What I get is Apple reported $45 in EPS in 2012 and in 2013 it was under $40...I see a reason for not being at an ATH. If you don't understand why Apple is down from $700 after the past year of results, that's not my problem.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:19:02 GMT -8
Well, I guess it's rotation out of AAPL into AMZN. Makes perfect sense. /s Honestly, until option interest in this stock fades, I can't recommend this stock anymore. China Mobile news has just left this stock to add insult to injury. I cannot fathom why anyone does not give this post a yay unless you are a participant or accessary to the game. Give it up. Unless a split happens no small investor even with a 1yr plus hold period will not touch it. The swings of big money is too much to bear. Maybe you haven't notice, but 39% of AAPL is owned by retail traders. That's a ratio of 1:1.56. Artificially lowering the price through a stock split will do nothing to change that ratio. What will change that ratio is belief by the institutions that they will make more money owning AAPL, than they have been with AMZN, GOOG, FB, etc. When that happens, the retail account will get squeezed out, as the Institutions, using resources the retail trader doesn't have, accumulate AAPL in volume. At that time the ratio will go to 1:2.30.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:24:11 GMT -8
When the market goes up, appl goes sideways or down. When the market goes down, aapl goes down more. When will this end? No amount of analytics will tell you that, because it has to do with future levels of hope and faith and belief in the company. Apple is up around 40% in 6 months...that must be hard to do when Apple goes only sideways or down As of today's trading more like 30%. $417 to $544.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:29:20 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. Who knows...when there's big money at play, people will do anything. And if anyone thinks leaks never happen, I have a bridge to sell you. Maybe you will, but not everyone. Not even half, more like a very few.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:30:22 GMT -8
Apple is up around 40% in 6 months...that must be hard to do when Apple goes only sideways or down As of today's trading more like 30%. $417 to $544. OK, well from June 27th, which is like 6 months and a week, we're up 40%...I think everyone got my point though, we're up significantly over the past 6 months. Complaining about how we only go sideways or down is silly, since we're actually up significantly over the past 6 months.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:31:31 GMT -8
This is so hard and fast that I'm wondering if some weakness in earnings has been leaked. Is there any possibility that institutions are just driving price down to load up before earnings? Only by their absence.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:31:36 GMT -8
Who knows...when there's big money at play, people will do anything. And if anyone thinks leaks never happen, I have a bridge to sell you. Maybe you will, but not everyone. Not even half, more like a very few. Yep, but all it takes is one person to leak the numbers...if it's leaked to a few big traders, they can make a ton of money. But thanks for the insult
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Post by mace on Jan 3, 2014 10:38:05 GMT -8
Market has been worried that Apple would lose the carrier subsidy eventually. Has the day arrived? Starting from CHL deal?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:38:24 GMT -8
Exactly...maybe we should use 5 years as a measuring stick? Or 3 years? Or 10 years? Usually people use multiple timeframes to assess an investment's performance, and benchmark it against the S&P and/or it's sector to evaluate it's performance compared to peers. 5 years AAPL +500% SPY +105% NAS +169% 3 years AAPL +61.5% SPY +45.5% NAS +55.7% 1 year AAPL +0% SPY +28.75 % NAS +39% Doing so reveals that yes, AAPL has performed well in the past and on the long term, but serious underperformance in the last year and 2 years would give anyone doubts about putting new money into the stock. Imagine you are an experienced investor (but not an apple-centric one like us) who just received a windfall inheritance and need to figure out where to invest it. Why in hell would you choose to put it in aapl as opposed to one of the indexes or any number of better performing equities? Because over 5 years or 10 years aapl has done better? Nope. In fact, looking at those longer term timeframes would give more credence to the "apple's best days are behind it" or "apple without Steve Jobs isn't doing well" narratives. The only thing that will turn this ship around is earnings growth surprises and/or explosive new products. Thank you Archie, for affirming my theory that Apple failed to perform during F2013. The roots of that failure was in the last half of F2012. AAPL is down because of Apple's failure to perform, and not for any other reason. AAPL is trading this month like a pony just learning to walk. It will be erratic until its legs strengthen. MARCH QUARTER GUIDANCE (which I think is going to be very good), followed by an even stronger JUNE QUARTER.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:38:31 GMT -8
Is there any possibility that institutions are just driving price down to load up before earnings? Only by their absence. Yes. The call walls are real. Even retail investors (well, most) know there will be opportunities from here to January expiration to buy. There's a lack of buying because there's no urgency if the options keep AAPL here (or lower). In other words, it's not that the institutions are selling, it's that they don't have to buy. I thought CM would have counted for something. Guess not.
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