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Post by Lstream on Jan 3, 2014 10:39:41 GMT -8
Look up the word "context," as it applies to AAPL and other stocks. You clearly don't "get" most things here. What I get is Apple reported $45 in EPS in 2012 and in 2013 it was under $40...I see a reason for not being at an ATH. If you don't understand why Apple is down from $700 after the past year of results, that's not my problem. Ya, I don't get the mystery and conspiracy theories either. High flying company with great sales and EPS growth transforms rapidly into a slow grower and shrinks earnings. In spite of apparently great fundamentals, provides disappointing guidance for Q1. We don't need to look at: 1. Wall Street overlords 2. Options traders 3. Money flowing to AMZN or other undeserving destinations 4. CNBC or a whole host of other bogus villains Apple had a crap year per the metrics that most understand. That's the problem, and the stock is still fragile while the market awaits real evidence that the story is not going to keep getting worse. Hence a downgrade from a moron like we saw yesterday sends us into another tailspin. The market needs this company to prove it will resume growth. Until then it will be fragile, and at least on this Board people will continue to look past the obvious reason why, and continue to rant about irrelevant villains and causes. C'est la vie around here.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:40:33 GMT -8
Is there any possibility that institutions are just driving price down to load up before earnings? Jason Schwarz used to post articles about the slingshot effect into AAPL earnings. Happens every year (except 2008 bank meltdown), during first full week after New Year's Day.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:40:55 GMT -8
Market has been worried that Apple would lose the carrier subsidy eventually. Has the day arrived? Starting from CHL deal? I don't think so. The subsidy works for both parties. ATT's bluff to ditch the subsidy model seems contradicted by its new strategy of bribing T-Mobile customers with up to $450 if they transfer service. But yeah, there's probably some fear in the stock over it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:43:18 GMT -8
What I get is Apple reported $45 in EPS in 2012 and in 2013 it was under $40...I see a reason for not being at an ATH. If you don't understand why Apple is down from $700 after the past year of results, that's not my problem. Ya, I don't get the mystery and conspiracy theories either. High flying company with great sales and EPS growth transforms rapidly into a slow grower and shrinks earnings. In spite of apparently great fundamentals, provides disappointing guidance for Q1. We don't need to look at: 1. Wall Street overlords 2. Options traders 3. Money flowing to AMZN or other undeserving destinations 4. CNBC or a whole host of other bogus villains Apple had a crap year per the metrics that most understand. That's the problem, and the stock is still fragile while the market awaits real evidence that the story is not going to keep getting worse. Hence a downgrade from a moron like we saw yesterday sends us into another tailspin. The market needs this company to prove it will resume growth. Until then it will be fragile, and at least on this Board people will continue to look past the obvious reason why, and continue to rant about irrelevant villains and causes. C'est la vie around here. Hooray ! ! !
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:47:54 GMT -8
Market has been worried that Apple would lose the carrier subsidy eventually. Has the day arrived? Starting from CHL deal? Given the number of firms that are discounting iPhones (vs subsidies that are really loans), I'd say there should be no fear of that. Any complaints from carriers most likely has to do with their cost of money going up.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:48:14 GMT -8
It's curious that Apple management can gush over its financial performance for FY2013 while others here say they had a "crap year." What nonsense. In fact, sales increased YOY close to 10%. The difference in EPS was all margin, something that WS cautioned everyone would not be sustainable. Yet, Apple's average margin was 38% for FY 2013, among the highest in tech and in line with Apple's historical results.
Context. Look it up, before my head explodes.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 3, 2014 10:51:55 GMT -8
Maybe you will, but not everyone. Not even half, more like a very few. Yep, but all it takes is one person to leak the numbers...if it's leaked to a few big traders, they can make a ton of money. But thanks for the insult I think there was a leak in the CM numbers, and there are leaks on every single product Apple makes. Think of it as a sieve.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:51:57 GMT -8
tinyurl.com/Samsung-In-TroubleAnd you thought Apple had a bad 2013 ...Samsung 2013 FORTUNE -- Samsung chairman Lee Kun-hee, 71, looked a little shaky Thursday as he arrived to deliver his annual new year's address. And so did the conglomerate he's run since 1987 (not counting the two years he took off after his 2008 conviction for embezzlement and tax evasion). Samsung plays the heavy in so many global markets -- and so many Apple (AAPL) stories -- that it's a little hard to see the world's largest information technology manufacturer in terms of its frailties. But with shares down 10% in 2013 and another 4.6% in the first day of 2014 trading -- Samsung's largest one-day percentage drop in seven months -- those frailties are what analysts are talking about. Their list may sound familiar to Apple investors: * Slowing growth -- Samsung next week is expected to report fourth quarter operating profits up 9.2% -- "a sharp slowdown," according to the Wall Street Journal, "from the 26% gain in the third quarter." * Growing competition -- Mainly from Chinese manufacturers that can make knockoff smartphones even more cheaply than Samsung. * Shrinking margins -- "The proportion of less-premium smartphones appears to have increased within the portfolio, squeezing margins," Mirae's Doh Hyun-woo told the Journal. But Lee knows that Samsung faces deeper, more structural problems. No electronics manufacturer is better at rapidly turning out in huge quantities smartphones and tablets of different sizes and specs. But in the mobile device market that accounts for more than 50% of its profits, Samsung can't match Apple's software ecosystem, is dependent on Google (GOOG) for Android, and can't seem to shake off the 2012 Apple patent infringement verdict that branded it a "copycat" -- no matter how many flashy innovations it adds to its high-end Galaxy line. Lee, who 20 years ago famously advised employees to "change everything but your wife and children," stressed on Thursday the need to drop old habits and come up with new technologies -- particularly in software. Samsung must "get rid of business models and strategies from five, ten years ago and hardware-focused ways, he said. "Research & development center(s) should work around the clock, non-stop."
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:57:16 GMT -8
It's curious that Apple management can gush over its financial performance for FY2013 while others here say they had a "crap year." What nonsense. In fact, sales increased YOY close to 10%. The difference in EPS was all margin, something that WS cautioned everyone would not be sustainable. Yet, Apple's average margin was 38% for FY 2013, among the highest in tech and in line with Apple's historical results. Context. Look it up, before my head explodes. We know what context means. We can't help it if you don't get it.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 10:57:47 GMT -8
It's curious that Apple management can gush over its financial performance for FY2013 while others here say they had a "crap year." What nonsense. In fact, sales increased YOY close to 10%. The difference in EPS was all margin, something that WS cautioned everyone would not be sustainable. Yet, Apple's average margin was 38% for FY 2013, among the highest in tech and in line with Apple's historical results. Context. Look it up, before my head explodes. So if Apple had a great 2013 and Wall Street knew margins weren't sustainable at 47%, why did the stock drop almost 50%? Also, institutional ownership declined considerably, so if they expected the margin slide, why did they sell off since Apple had such a great year?
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Post by Lstream on Jan 3, 2014 10:59:58 GMT -8
It's curious that Apple management can gush over its financial performance for FY2013 while others here say they had a "crap year." What nonsense. In fact, sales increased YOY close to 10%. The difference in EPS was all margin, something that WS cautioned everyone would not be sustainable. Yet, Apple's average margin was 38% for FY 2013, among the highest in tech and in line with Apple's historical results. Context. Look it up, before my head explodes. Jeez man, do you need to be spoon fed? I said crap year per the metrics that most understand. Look at the rapid downward shift in sales and EPS performance. That is the context that the market is looking at. I don't need to look it up. Sounds like you do. I am standing by the company because I think they will improve performance soon. But it should be blazingly obvious why so many are not giving them that benefit of the doubt. But carry on with your rants against imaginary bogeymen, since it seems to give you purpose.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 11:02:18 GMT -8
It's curious that Apple management can gush over its financial performance for FY2013 while others here say they had a "crap year." What nonsense. In fact, sales increased YOY close to 10%. The difference in EPS was all margin, something that WS cautioned everyone would not be sustainable. Yet, Apple's average margin was 38% for FY 2013, among the highest in tech and in line with Apple's historical results. Context. Look it up, before my head explodes. We know what context means. We can't help it if you don't get it. No Gregg, you don't get it, and haven't for a very long time. ISM, free shares, buyback cluelessness, and analysis paralysis. ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 11:06:42 GMT -8
Jeez man, do you need to be spoon fed? I said crap year per the metrics that most understand. Look at the rapid downward shift in sales and EPS performance. That is the context that the market is looking at. I don't need to look it up. Sounds like you do. I am standing by the company because I think they will improve performance soon. But it should be blazingly obvious why so many are not giving them that benefit of the doubt. But carry on with your rants against imaginary bogeymen, since it seems to give you purpose. Fine if you want to dispute the influence of options, but you're the guy that desperately needs a clue. And if you don't think there's manipulation of this stock, you're as dimwitted as the analysts that cover Apple. No one, except you possibly, expected Apple to grow at the levels it did in 2011-2012. And yeah, I'm going to call you on your B.S. regarding "crap year" even though I know that's an exercise in futility.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 3, 2014 11:21:08 GMT -8
And yeah, I'm going to call you on your B.S. regarding "crap year" even though I know that's an exercise in futility. So I take it that you still don't understand that I am not calling it a crap year? I am attempting to say that lots of others will look at the rapid deceleration of earnings and sales growth and will draw that conclusion.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 3, 2014 11:23:13 GMT -8
What's an appropriate measuring stick then? Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. Boo FUCKING hoo. Don't you ever get tired of posting the same fucking complaints over and over again? I trade. So what. You think my measly thousands of dollars makes any difference? I post here daily because I trade. You follow micro-action and post here daily because..... ? Most of you would do yourselves some good and take a step away from the day to day action.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 11:31:42 GMT -8
Because it has no context. Anyone feeling good about a 40% move up AFTER a 60% decline? Most here are LONGs, not short-term traders hell bent on making coin off weekly options and destroying the stock in the process. Boo FUCKING hoo. Don't you ever get tired of posting the same fucking complaints over and over again? I trade. So what. You think my measly thousands of dollars makes any difference? I post here daily because I trade. You follow micro-action and post here daily because..... ? Most of you would do yourselves some good and take a step away from the day to day action. Your measly 1000's of dollars? Times 1? You're it? lol.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 3, 2014 11:34:17 GMT -8
Valuation is all relative. Lots of people have made very strong arguments as to why AAPL dropped from the ATH at the same time there are MANY pros and people on this board who simply think even with those arguments that AAPL is still undervalued ... trading at 8X forward earnings is simply too cheap. The ONE thing I know for sure is that none of you know SHIT. Everyone chiming in including myself has been very wrong as to the direction of AAPL at some point ... can we not act like know-it-all pricks Probably not
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Post by cbingle on Jan 3, 2014 11:39:34 GMT -8
And I thought I was the problem.....;-)
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Post by Lstream on Jan 3, 2014 11:41:22 GMT -8
Valuation is all relative. Lots of people have made very strong arguments as to why AAPL dropped from the ATH at the same time there are MANY pros and people on this board who simply think even with those arguments that AAPL is still undervalued ... trading at 8X forward earnings is simply too cheap. The ONE thing I know for sure is that none of you know SHIT. Everyone chiming in including myself has been very wrong as to the direction of AAPL at some point ... can we not act like know-it-all pricks Probably not Well in the world of prickdom, everyone else thinks the other guy is the prick. So ya, probably not.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 11:46:33 GMT -8
Jeez man, do you need to be spoon fed? I said crap year per the metrics that most understand. Look at the rapid downward shift in sales and EPS performance. That is the context that the market is looking at. I don't need to look it up. Sounds like you do. I am standing by the company because I think they will improve performance soon. But it should be blazingly obvious why so many are not giving them that benefit of the doubt. But carry on with your rants against imaginary bogeymen, since it seems to give you purpose. Fine if you want to dispute the influence of options, but you're the guy that desperately needs a clue. And if you don't think there's manipulation of this stock, you're as dimwitted as the analysts that cover Apple. No one, except you possibly, expected Apple to grow at the levels it did in 2011-2012. And yeah, I'm going to call you on your B.S. regarding "crap year" even though I know that's an exercise in futility. Now I know I'm right.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2014 12:35:57 GMT -8
Wow, everybody ran out of steam....
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Post by macwire on Jan 3, 2014 12:40:34 GMT -8
Closing on some strength except AAPL crapping. :/
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 3, 2014 12:41:48 GMT -8
from page 29-30 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312513486406/d648739dpre14a.htmThe Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4.
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Post by rickag on Jan 3, 2014 12:46:53 GMT -8
from page 29-30 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312513486406/d648739dpre14a.htmThe Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4. Just wish I would have had bug in the room during those conversations.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 13:00:52 GMT -8
Wow, everybody ran out of steam.... No buyers. I can't say I blame them. The steam vapor has misted even my optimism for this stock. Great company, just not a stock to own unless you are very brave (and probably foolish).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2014 13:01:37 GMT -8
from page 29-30 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312513486406/d648739dpre14a.htmThe Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4. This says it all, it wasn't MM manipulation, options trading, or anything else other than reduced (to the point go going negative) Net Income, that caused AAPL to swoon. Thank you you Artman.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2014 13:13:02 GMT -8
Fugly!
Sitting on the daily SMA-50 and not looking pretty.
*Should* bounce here, even if it's only an oversold bounce. "Should" being the operative word.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2014 13:22:10 GMT -8
Hey, guess what? We have a "No Personal Attacks" Rule. I know, sometimes stuff slips by me. I must admit I don't always read every scintillating word posted on this forum. But if you find your posting privileges disabled (for 5 days), that means I read you, and I didn't like what I read, and you should have known better. Thank you, The Management
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 3, 2014 13:24:42 GMT -8
Hey, guess what? We have a "No Personal Attacks" Rule. I know, sometimes stuff slips by me. I must admit I don't always read every scintillating word posted on this forum. But if you find your posting privileges disabled (for 5 days), that means I read you, and I didn't like what I read, and you should have known better. Thank you, The Management You don't read All my posts?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 3, 2014 13:25:39 GMT -8
Yours, I do.
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