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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2014 3:58:42 GMT -8
Sorry about the late start today...I have four dogs...too long to explain the morning. So AAPL green in PM this morning. The biggest news on the stock today and what talking heads are discussing is:
Apple (AAPL) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) agreed to attend a mediation session to be held on or before February 19, as they prepare to battle in court in March over smartphone patents, reports Reuters. Apple CEO Tim Cook and Samsung CEO Oh-Hyun Kwon will attend the session with in-house lawyers only, according to a court filing.
Again, have to believe it is good to put this behind us and set rules in place (assuming that Samsung will now follow them). 8:30 am we get Jobless Claims ~ biggest economic number for today....and we approach Friday and our weekly PIN. By the way, I follow a few technicians out there and it's interesting on the spectrum of disagreement as to where we are with AAPL....it can go either direction it seems...but then again, that's what makes markets, right?
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2014 4:37:04 GMT -8
… (assuming that Samsung will now follow them)… That's one very big assumption.
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Post by jmolloy on Jan 9, 2014 5:16:44 GMT -8
… (assuming that Samsung will now follow them)… That's one very big assumption. I liked Dalrymple's take, but I won't quote it here, it's over at LoopInsight.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 5:32:03 GMT -8
Let's hope this meeting is more than a dog and pony show for the judge.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 5:35:41 GMT -8
The Apple Samsung mediation talks are most likely to please the judge for the march trial.
As I said last week here, judge Koh wanted a joint settlement proposal from apple & Samsung by Jan 8th, this is it right on schedule.
The exact same type of CEO level settlement talks were requested by the judge before last years trial, and in that instance nothing eventuated.
I expect nothing from these talks either, the companies are doing it at the request of the judge - I would be shocked if either company refused to take part as it would be the fastest way to piss off the judge before the next trial has even begun.
Don't get me wrong, I think a settlement would be great, but I think this is just a charade.
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Post by macwire on Jan 9, 2014 8:10:53 GMT -8
Losing the 50 day.
Lots of time left but market seems precarious Lotta red ink and reversals everywhere.
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2014 8:46:37 GMT -8
The day of Apple's announcement concerning the deal with China Mobile AAPL closed @ $549. The following day AAPL traded up to ~ $572 and closed @ $570. AAPL is now down ~$10 from the close before the China Mobile deal was announced. I guess the China Mobile deal was built into the price prior to the announcement. I thought maybe part of the deal was built in but after the announcement AAPL would continue up another few bucks/share. How wrong I was.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 9, 2014 9:03:47 GMT -8
I don't think the deal was priced in and I still don't think it's priced in. Right now, the stock price is reflecting Fear and Doubt that China Mobile will do anything for AAPL... the conventional wisdom right now is that China Mobile's pricing is too high compared to the other China carriers, who are offering better subsidies, and that the CM sales impact will be minor.
This is misguided and China Mobile will sell HUGE numbers of iphones.
However, this will still not be priced in until Apple PROVES that these sales have already happened... AAPL has become a show-me stock to the extreme -- no one believes that anything they do will work until long after it has worked, and then They move the goal posts to say "OK, that might have worked... but their new future plans won't work."
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2014 9:21:24 GMT -8
I don't think the deal was priced in and I still don't think it's priced in. Right now, the stock price is reflecting Fear and Doubt that China Mobile will do anything for AAPL... the conventional wisdom right now is that China Mobile's pricing is too high compared to the other China carriers, who are offering better subsidies, and that the CM sales impact will be minor. This is misguided and China Mobile will sell HUGE numbers of iphones. However, this will still not be priced in until Apple PROVES that these sales have already happened... AAPL has become a show-me stock to the extreme -- no one believes that anything they do will work until long after it has worked, and then They move the goal posts to say "OK, that might have worked... but their new future plans won't work." I agree with what you say. I guess I worded my comment too vaguely. I still felt just the announcement of a China Mobile deal was worth more than a ~$10 drop in AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 9:45:59 GMT -8
I don't think the deal was priced in and I still don't think it's priced in. Right now, the stock price is reflecting Fear and Doubt that China Mobile will do anything for AAPL... the conventional wisdom right now is that China Mobile's pricing is too high compared to the other China carriers, who are offering better subsidies, and that the CM sales impact will be minor. This is misguided and China Mobile will sell HUGE numbers of iphones. However, this will still not be priced in until Apple PROVES that these sales have already happened... AAPL has become a show-me stock to the extreme -- no one believes that anything they do will work until long after it has worked, and then They move the goal posts to say "OK, that might have worked... but their new future plans won't work." How do you KNOW that China Mobile will sell HUGE numbers? And what exactly defines huge. No one has any idea what China Mobile is worth, other than the more people that have access to the iPhone, the better. I certainly don't think anyone thinks China Mobile will not help Apple at all, that's crazy...but will it help earnings by 2%, 4% or 8%? Cause if it's at the low end, it's not a big deal obviously. No one has any idea how it will sell...perhaps if Apple releases pre-sale numbers on the 17th, we'll have an idea.
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Post by nkmho on Jan 9, 2014 9:49:34 GMT -8
Looks like someone just picked up 3100 Apr 590 calls at $12.70. $3.9M play there.
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Post by rickag on Jan 9, 2014 10:17:50 GMT -8
Looks like someone just picked up 3100 Apr 590 calls at $12.70. $3.9M play there. I wonder how they hedged this play.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 9, 2014 10:23:10 GMT -8
Looks like someone just picked up 3100 Apr 590 calls at $12.70. $3.9M play there. I wonder how they hedged this play. Or that is the hedge....
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Post by macwire on Jan 9, 2014 10:57:10 GMT -8
Bleeding out till earnings IMO. micro picture sucks. Rejected 570 a few times lost the 50 day...still a decent picture from 385 double bottom I guess.
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 9, 2014 11:27:45 GMT -8
Looks like someone just picked up 3100 Apr 590 calls at $12.70. $3.9M play there. I wonder how they hedged this play. That trade went through tied to stock on a 28 delta. So for every call that was purchased, the buyer also sold 28 shares of AAPL to the seller.
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Post by cbingle on Jan 9, 2014 11:32:03 GMT -8
Glad I have been diversifying my portfolio the last few months from AAPL. Still hold 1500 shares (down from 3000). New positions in other stocks make my days more enjoyable (and profitable). Much happier now. Will sell my remaining AAPL shares this year. Timing will depend on pre earnings run (if there is one), and Q1 results/ guidance. Probably will be all out by April.
Watching how WS treats AAPL is more of a side show to me now. Yeah, still a little painful, but not stressful at all.
What I don't understand is that Apple has the most desirable products in the world, but does nothing to manage their image with the investment community. Apple only has themselves to blame. I have finally stopped making excuses. I have made well over a million dollars from my AAPL investments, so I am a happy camper.
Looking forward to setting myself free from the nonsense.
GLTA
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Post by macwire on Jan 9, 2014 11:42:34 GMT -8
Glad I have been diversifying my portfolio the last few months from AAPL. Still hold 1500 shares (down from 3000). New positions in other stocks make my days more enjoyable (and profitable). Much happier now. Will sell my remaining AAPL shares this year. Timing will depend on pre earnings run (if there is one), and Q1 results/ guidance. Probably will be all out by April. Watching how WS treats AAPL is more of a side show to me now. Yeah, still a little painful, but not stressful at all. What I don't understand is that Apple has the most desirable products in the world, but does nothing to manage their image with the investment community. Apple only has themselves to blame. I have finally stopped making excuses. I have made well over a million dollars from my AAPL investments, so I am a happy camper. Looking forward to setting myself free from the nonsense. GLTA Well played. My stress level has also decreased markedly after diversifying away from AAPL. Last year I was tearing my hair out. In the end it doesn't matter how WS treat AAPL. It simply is what it is. Trade within that knowledge. It took a year but I've finally divested my love of Apple from my love of AAPL Forward, onward.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 9, 2014 11:43:32 GMT -8
I'm sticking by my 550 prediction for next Friday. There are so many Puts expiring at 550, option pinning *should* help us for once...
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Post by nkmho on Jan 9, 2014 11:49:19 GMT -8
I wonder how they hedged this play. That trade went through tied to stock on a 28 delta. So for every call that was purchased, the buyer also sold 28 shares of AAPL to the seller. Ah yes, I see it now, a block of 86800 shares at 12:37 PM.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2014 12:08:18 GMT -8
I will not sleep in late. I will not sleep in late. I will not sleep in late. I will not sleep in late. I will not sleep in late. I will not sleep in late. Really cost me some opportunity. #callwall
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Mav
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[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2014 12:43:25 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Jan 9, 2014 12:50:14 GMT -8
about an hour ago cbingle said: Glad I have been diversifying my portfolio the last few months from AAPL. Still hold 1500 shares (down from 3000). New positions in other stocks make my days more enjoyable (and profitable). Much happier now. Will sell my remaining AAPL shares this year. Timing will depend on pre earnings run (if there is one), and Q1 results/ guidance. Probably will be all out by April.
Watching how WS treats AAPL is more of a side show to me now. Yeah, still a little painful, but not stressful at all.
What I don't understand is that Apple has the most desirable products in the world, but does nothing to manage their image with the investment community. Apple only has themselves to blame. I have finally stopped making excuses. I have made well over a million dollars from my AAPL investments, so I am a happy camper.
Looking forward to setting myself free from the nonsense.
GLTA
Well played. My stress level has also decreased markedly after diversifying away from AAPL. Last year I was tearing my hair out.
In the end it doesn't matter how WS treat AAPL. It simply is what it is. Trade within that knowledge. It took a year but I've finally divested my love of Apple from my love of AAPL
Forward, onward.
My sentiments exactly. It is a new day...so refreshing.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 9, 2014 13:18:39 GMT -8
I don't think the deal was priced in and I still don't think it's priced in. Right now, the stock price is reflecting Fear and Doubt that China Mobile will do anything for AAPL... the conventional wisdom right now is that China Mobile's pricing is too high compared to the other China carriers, who are offering better subsidies, and that the CM sales impact will be minor. This is misguided and China Mobile will sell HUGE numbers of iphones. However, this will still not be priced in until Apple PROVES that these sales have already happened... AAPL has become a show-me stock to the extreme -- no one believes that anything they do will work until long after it has worked, and then They move the goal posts to say "OK, that might have worked... but their new future plans won't work." China Mobile isn't priced in - despite this ridiculous sell off. And it isn't fear and doubt moving the share price. #500callwall
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 9, 2014 13:21:13 GMT -8
However, this will still not be priced in until Apple PROVES that these sales have already happened... AAPL has become a show-me stock to the extreme -- no one believes that anything they do will work until long after it has worked, and then They move the goal posts to say "OK, that might have worked... but their new future plans won't work." So it isn't a show-me stock as you say. Because once they "show" the street it won't matter.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2014 13:22:35 GMT -8
You guys should read the whole CNN article. The more quotes you read, the more hilarious it gets. "Uh, we're still not sure if we'll put in a scanner yet." Really? And crickets - absolute crickets - on 64-bit. Samsung could shoehorn a Exynos 64-bit in - assuming they don't just outsource from Qualcomm as they ironically so often do - but you'd figure it would be a decent selling point to mention, right?
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Post by VicaVale on Jan 9, 2014 13:47:32 GMT -8
I'm sticking by my 550 prediction for next Friday. There are so many Puts expiring at 550, option pinning *should* help us for once... I have no idea what will happen next week, but, someone bought 4715 contracts of the Jan14 555/575 call spread for $1.40 just before the close @3:42 (cost: $660,100). China Mobile starts selling iPhones on Jan 15. Hmmmm...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 9, 2014 13:49:46 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 14:05:35 GMT -8
What I don't understand is that Apple has the most desirable products in the world, but does nothing to manage their image with the investment community. Apple only has themselves to blame. I have finally stopped making excuses. I have made well over a million dollars from my AAPL investments, so I am a happy camper. THIS is the single most perplexing fact about AAPL, the stock vs. Apple, Inc. Institutional interest is PATHETIC at 61%.
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 9, 2014 14:31:37 GMT -8
What I don't understand is that Apple has the most desirable products in the world, but does nothing to manage their image with the investment community. Apple only has themselves to blame. I have finally stopped making excuses. I have made well over a million dollars from my AAPL investments, so I am a happy camper. THIS is the single most perplexing fact about AAPL, the stock vs. Apple, Inc. Institutional interest is PATHETIC at 61%. If Apple is actively buying its own shares, then isn't it in the company's best interest for the stock to be as cheap as possible? The only reason I could think of where having an undervalued stock price would be a problem is in employee retention. But I'm sure management would know if that was an issue. Other than that, what reason would Apple have to keep its stock price from going down?
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 9, 2014 14:39:30 GMT -8
Yes Mercel; and Google's is 87.1% and Microsoft's is 78.7%. AAPL is definately considered to be the riskier stock of the group which certainly doesn't make sense from a PE perspective.
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