Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 12:16:07 GMT -8
If you were Tim Cook, how would you feel that after all your hard work, mind blowing and world changing inventions, that your personal future and company valuation was dictated by option traders. I would be very pissed....but hey, that is just me. The question is why would Apple be targeted by Option Traders more than other stocks? It's the largest stock in the world, and theoretically, the hardest to move.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 10, 2014 12:32:04 GMT -8
I know I've said it before, but investing in this stock makes me think of Woody Allen,
"Life is divided into the horrible and the miserable." ... and it's all over much too soon."
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 10, 2014 12:39:21 GMT -8
Archibald,
as far as calling it quits goes... remember Apple BORROWED $60B to buyback it's own stock.
It's not going to settle for what piddly diddly gains we've seen since that announcement.
Believe it, they've got plans to see the stock go significantly higher, and yes, well exceed the $700ish high. Apple was even undervalued then.
Sooner or later it's gonna pop and go on a tear without too much ryhme or reason.
Just as this stock responds illogically to favorable earnings reports, it doesn't need anything logical to radically change direction upward.
Don't chase pendulums, you/we have already paid for the gains we'll see in 2014 by hanging in there through the long winter or 2013 (aka Apple's buy back season).
We've been stalled before (2008-2009) be patient.
btw... this new interface is terrible.
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 12:42:02 GMT -8
The question is why would Apple be targeted by Option Traders more than other stocks? It's the largest stock in the world, and theoretically, the hardest to move.
And yet it is moved harder and faster than any other stock I follow...(especially with no news or good news)
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 10, 2014 12:55:32 GMT -8
I can sum that up in 2 words...
Goldman Sachs
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 13:30:25 GMT -8
The question is why would Apple be targeted by Option Traders more than other stocks? It's the largest stock in the world, and theoretically, the hardest to move. And yet it is moved harder and faster than any other stock I follow...(especially with no news or good news) I disagree, there are plenty of other tech stocks which are much more volatile in their daily moves than AAPL: tesla, netflix, pandora, twitter, Facebook, the 3D printer names, the solar power companies, even google & amazon - they all generally move a larger % every day than Apple.
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 13:43:42 GMT -8
disagree, there are plenty of other tech stocks which are much more volatile in their daily moves than AAPL: tesla, netflix, pandora, twitter, Facebook, the 3D printer names, the solar power companies, even google & amazon - they all generally move a larger % every day than Apple.
Yes, and they move substantially higher....
I will no longer point the obvious out....but AAPL can no longer grow revenue (let alone earnings) more than a few percent a year at most.
Fair value is a PE of 12. Traders swing it from a PE of 10-14. If you want to trade the swing, fine. The reason institutional and value investors want no part of this stock is because of option traders.
If I am a value investor and want a good dividend, I buy KMB, CLX, LMT, MO, PG, JNJ....not AAPL.
If you want to trade , follow the options. If you want to have a solid long term investment, find another stock.
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Post by macwire on Jan 10, 2014 13:51:48 GMT -8
disagree, there are plenty of other tech stocks which are much more volatile in their daily moves than AAPL: tesla, netflix, pandora, twitter, Facebook, the 3D printer names, the solar power companies, even google & amazon - they all generally move a larger % every day than Apple. Yes, and they move substantially higher.... I will no longer point the obvious out....but AAPL can no longer grow revenue (let alone earnings) more than a few percent a year at most. Fair value is a PE of 12. Traders swing it from a PE of 10-14. If you want to trade the swing, fine. The reason institutional and value investors want no part of this stock is because of option traders. If I am a value investor and want a good dividend, I buy KMB, CLX, LMT, MO, PG, JNJ....not AAPL. If you want to trade , follow the options. If you want to have a solid long term investment, find another stock. Bingo. The wild card is new products. But no one knows. And not only that. No one knows time frames on new products. And that's not an investing plan. That's gambling.
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 10, 2014 13:56:42 GMT -8
The question is why would Apple be targeted by Option Traders more than other stocks? It's the largest stock in the world, and theoretically, the hardest to move. And yet it is moved harder and faster than any other stock I follow...(especially with no news or good news) Like burgess alluded to, what method are you using to calculate volatility? Apple has shown extremely low volatility of late, and to see people on here comment about how volatile AAPL is, is pretty baffling. According to my volatility calculations, here are the realized volatility values for over the past 3 months in these stocks: AAPL: 21% GOOG: 23% AMZN: 29% NFLX: 47% TSLA: 68% It's actually hard to find stocks that have been less volatile than AAPL of late, you have to go to a stock like KO (16%) to find a lower realized volatility.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 13:57:26 GMT -8
disagree, there are plenty of other tech stocks which are much more volatile in their daily moves than AAPL: tesla, netflix, pandora, twitter, Facebook, the 3D printer names, the solar power companies, even google & amazon - they all generally move a larger % every day than Apple. Yes, and they move substantially higher.... I will no longer point the obvious out....but AAPL can no longer grow revenue (let alone earnings) more than a few percent a year at most. Fair value is a PE of 12. Traders swing it from a PE of 10-14. If you want to trade the swing, fine. The reason institutional and value investors want no part of this stock is because of option traders. If I am a value investor and want a good dividend, I buy KMB, CLX, LMT, MO, PG, JNJ....not AAPL. If you want to trade , follow the options. If you want to have a solid long term investment, find another stock. Isn't Apple's Dividend higher than most of those? And with a lower payout ratio, so room for higher dividend growth? I don't disagree that Apple isn't a fair value in the 12 to 14 range...unless a company is growing earnings, it's not worth much higher IMHO. Do you think JNJ, PG, MO, KMB or any of those stocks grow earnings consistently in the 20% range either? It's just not possible to grow 20%+ forever, not when Global GDP is growing in the 3 - 5% range. It's fine if you don't want to trade or invest in Apple anymore...but I just think your justifications are wrong. There are plenty of stocks that swing more and are more influenced by traders...you just don't know because you don't watch them every single day for years.
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Post by lucy on Jan 10, 2014 14:29:00 GMT -8
Mark
Just let the BCS expire.
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 14:30:23 GMT -8
Isn't Apple's Dividend higher than most of those? And with a lower payout ratio, so room for higher dividend growth? I don't disagree that Apple isn't a fair value in the 12 to 14 range...unless a company is growing earnings, it's not worth much higher IMHO.
Do you think JNJ, PG, MO, KMB or any of those stocks grow earnings consistently in the 20% range either? It's just not possible to grow 20%+ forever, not when Global GDP is growing in the 3 - 5% range.
It's fine if you don't want to trade or invest in Apple anymore...but I just think your justifications are wrong. There are plenty of stocks that swing more and are more influenced by traders...you just don't know because you don't watch them every single day for years.
OK. No more comments from me....other than this....invest with your brain and not with your heart....
GLTA
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 14:33:36 GMT -8
Sorry....one last comment....
This is for JD....is CM priced in yet?
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Jan 10, 2014 15:28:48 GMT -8
Somewhere between $530 - $540, probably $533. Can you get a little closer next week?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2014 15:54:58 GMT -8
I've also written off some of my Jan positions. The question is - what is the minimum I need to do to close them out? * 350 calls, obviously just sell them I suppose * 400 calls, same * 500 calls, same * 600 calls, allow to expire and that's it * 600/650 BCS, do I need to buy the short-end? sell the long-end? both? Any advice is appreciated! You could roll the ITM calls out to JAN'15 or JAN'16. If you want to hedge a portion, sell some higher strikes against them to make bull call spreads. On the 600/650 bull call spreads, if you roll any of the ITM calls out, you could sell the 600s and leave the 650s (paired with the rolled out long calls as calendar spreads) to expire worthless. I haven't checked prices... Is there any value in the 600s? EDIT: okay, I just checked... Unless you have a boatload of the 600/650 bull call spreads, just let them die. I would roll the ITM calls out to JAN'15 or JAN'16, and *I* would hedge at least half, which may or may not be what you choose to do with them.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2014 16:01:52 GMT -8
Somewhere between $530 - $540, probably $533. Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2014 16:04:06 GMT -8
Serious question here folks. When do we call it quits? I mean, clearly there have been better investments for time and money in the last 18 months. But we have all been sticking with AAPL because better days always seem right around the corner. But what if earnings this quarter come in flat y/y and in line with guidance, and next quarter guidance is given that would also be flat? Ie,, that the hitting-on-all-cylinders sales successes we've seen in the last few months are required just for earnings to remain flat? Would that be enough to convince most of us to finally focus on other investments? I'm asking for myself as much as for any of you. At each stage of the AAPL downdraft and sideways action I've convinced myself that greener days for the stock are right around the corner... What could cause me to snap out of that notion, if necessary? Doesn't have to be "all or nothing." Consider diversification, for mental health if nothing else.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2014 16:06:58 GMT -8
btw... this new interface is terrible. I hate it too. But I've seen worse. AFB1's "upgrade" comes to mind... This is at least functional.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2014 16:09:29 GMT -8
The question is why would Apple be targeted by Option Traders more than other stocks? It's the largest stock in the world, and theoretically, the hardest to move. And yet it is moved harder and faster than any other stock I follow...(especially with no news or good news) I disagree, there are plenty of other tech stocks which are much more volatile in their daily moves than AAPL: tesla, netflix, pandora, twitter, Facebook, the 3D printer names, the solar power companies, even google & amazon - they all generally move a larger % every day than Apple. What burgess said.
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