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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 10, 2014 4:09:33 GMT -8
Good morning everyone ~ Friday PIN day ~ December Jobs Report at 8:30 am AAPL +2 right now in PM but wish my crystal ball could tell me where the heck it's going (may have to ask my trusted 8 Ball). At the end of next week we start to see the actual sales thru China Mobile ... but not sure what numbers we will be privy to before earnings. Other than that - not much in the news or on AAPL specifically. Cheers to the longs! - Good luck
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 4:59:17 GMT -8
@jasonyng: #AppleStore goes on sale, and #HongKong goes crazy. It's like a refugee camp! t.co/M5bHao2afT
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 10, 2014 5:58:10 GMT -8
That is the definition of aspirational
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Post by aapl4kiki on Jan 10, 2014 6:07:42 GMT -8
@jasonyng: #AppleStore goes on sale, and #HongKong goes crazy. It's like a refugee camp! t.co/M5bHao2afTSupplies must be short. We're doomed. #500callwall
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Post by nagrani on Jan 10, 2014 6:08:11 GMT -8
I love seeing this. Shows price elasticity for apples products
I hope china mobile IPO is silly next week
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 10, 2014 6:14:37 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Jan 10, 2014 6:43:09 GMT -8
Gap fill imminent. And done.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 10, 2014 7:13:06 GMT -8
I had downloaded the MaxPain app for my iPhone and iPad and it has yet to be correct on the PIN. Today it tells me $545 -- which is clearly wrong. Does anyone know the correct one? I have limited access to info right now.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 7:36:19 GMT -8
Somewhere between $530 - $540, probably $533.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 10, 2014 7:41:44 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 7:45:43 GMT -8
You can always be found near the asian ladies, Red...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 10, 2014 7:48:13 GMT -8
I could go for some capitulation about now.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 8:24:06 GMT -8
I could go for some capitulation about now. Well, how's this? I've written off my Jan. positions. As a long-timer here, if Tommo UK were still around, he'd be reaching for his blood pressure pills and a pithy "What CROOKS!"
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 10, 2014 8:32:18 GMT -8
One great news story after another ..... unfortunately WS does not seem to care . Maybe the 17th launch will help but I'm not holding my breath.
CNBC did a story about the two disparate PC market share reports .... one reports a 5% decline for AAPL YOY the other a 28% GAIN I guess we will see who is right in a few weeks.
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Post by macwire on Jan 10, 2014 8:33:00 GMT -8
I could go for some capitulation about now. Well, how's this? I've written off my Jan. positions. As a long-timer here, if Tommo UK were still around, he'd be reaching for his blood pressure pills and a pithy "What CROOKS!" Sold remaining runners too. Bitter. Way green but 2x more green week ago. Groan.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 10, 2014 9:04:00 GMT -8
Serious question here folks.
When do we call it quits?
I mean, clearly there have been better investments for time and money in the last 18 months. But we have all been sticking with AAPL because better days always seem right around the corner.
But what if earnings this quarter come in flat y/y and in line with guidance, and next quarter guidance is given that would also be flat? Ie,, that the hitting-on-all-cylinders sales successes we've seen in the last few months are required just for earnings to remain flat? Would that be enough to convince most of us to finally focus on other investments?
I'm asking for myself as much as for any of you. At each stage of the AAPL downdraft and sideways action I've convinced myself that greener days for the stock are right around the corner... What could cause me to snap out of that notion, if necessary?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 9:07:59 GMT -8
11 more market days! And only 5 more till the huge wall of Jan Options is gone
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 9:08:32 GMT -8
Archibald:
The answer to your question is when you stop thinking with your heart and start thinking with your head.
It took me almost 5 years, but it finally happened in the last month or so.
You will no it when it happens.Everyone is different. Good luck.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 9:10:21 GMT -8
Serious question here folks. When do we call it quits? I mean, clearly there have been better investments for time and money in the last 18 months. But we have all been sticking with AAPL because better days always seem right around the corner. But what if earnings this quarter come in flat y/y and in line with guidance, and next quarter guidance is given that would also be flat? Ie,, that the hitting-on-all-cylinders sales successes we've seen in the last few months are required just for earnings to remain flat? Would that be enough to convince most of us to finally focus on other investments? I'm asking for myself as much as for any of you. At each stage of the AAPL downdraft and sideways action I've convinced myself that greener days for the stock are right around the corner... What could cause me to snap out of that notion, if necessary? If Apple doesn't post better than $14.50 this quarter, I'm out. This is the best chance for growth in a while...full scale iPhone 5S rollout, iPad Air, iPad Retina Mini all launched with better availability than last year. Macs showing positive over December. First full quarter of a major Japanese carrier (DoCoMo). If Apple can't grow with all that, the only hope is a new product, and I can't hold my breath for that any longer.
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Post by macwire on Jan 10, 2014 9:16:07 GMT -8
Already gone. It's just another trading stock for me.
Took place this year. Swimming upstream against manure is pointless.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 10, 2014 9:19:56 GMT -8
To move the stock we will need new product categories. The stock has always traded this way in the past. The street will still want to see how sales are for the new product categories but it will do the trick because, as we all know, nobody does a product category better than Apple. This is why we still own the stock.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Jan 10, 2014 9:41:46 GMT -8
Very much napkin math here but... 58B revenue (Top of Guidance), at 37.5% GM (ToG), divide by 900m shares vs 950m last year, gets me to $15 EPS. No 8K needed, just ToG. That adds over $1 to TTM.
For me this says hold hold hold, unless I'm missing something? I just can't see how they could have failed to AT LEAST hit ToG with:
- New iPad 10" form factor - Retina mini - 5S and 5C both in Top 3 phones across all tracked carriers - Phones in China in Q1 for first time
I'm not selling down here. Short term mentality predominates here recently, but remember we're up from 385 in six months, and the "show me" still hasn't ACTUALLY been shown even though sentiment has clearly turned a corner. That 61% institutional could run back to 70%+ at any point, and when it does you'll need to hold on. We were due a dip after our aggressive run to 575, here it is. Frustrating but no big deal. Numbers will prevail....... ...... ...... ...... ... eventually!
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 10, 2014 9:44:06 GMT -8
+1
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 10, 2014 9:55:29 GMT -8
Very much napkin math here but... 58B revenue (Top of Guidance), at 37.5% GM (ToG), divide by 900m shares vs 950m last year, gets me to $15 EPS. No 8K needed, just ToG. That adds over $1 to TTM. Guidance: 58b rev 37.5% gm 4.4b opex 200m oi&e 26.25% tax Assuming 900m shares = 14.38 eps
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Post by leonb on Jan 10, 2014 9:56:55 GMT -8
Very much napkin math here but... 58B revenue (Top of Guidance), at 37.5% GM (ToG), divide by 900m shares vs 950m last year, gets me to $15 EPS. No 8K needed, just ToG. That adds over $1 to TTM. For me this says hold hold hold, unless I'm missing something? I just can't see how they could have failed to AT LEAST hit ToG with: - New iPad 10" form factor - Retina mini - 5S and 5C both in Top 3 phones across all tracked carriers - Phones in China in Q1 for first time I'm not selling down here. Short term mentality predominates here recently, but remember we're up from 385 in six months, and the "show me" still hasn't ACTUALLY been shown even though sentiment has clearly turned a corner. That 61% institutional could run back to 70%+ at any point, and when it does you'll need to hold on. We were due a dip after our aggressive run to 575, here it is. Frustrating but no big deal. Numbers will prevail....... ...... ...... ...... ... eventually! But supposing you're right and we're looking at $15 at least, that doesn't mean the stock can't go lower on that announcement.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 10:17:36 GMT -8
Very much napkin math here but... 58B revenue (Top of Guidance), at 37.5% GM (ToG), divide by 900m shares vs 950m last year, gets me to $15 EPS. No 8K needed, just ToG. That adds over $1 to TTM. Guidance: 58b rev 37.5% gm 4.4b opex 200m oi&e 26.25% tax Assuming 900m shares = 14.38 eps Pretty big difference...whats bloodylongaapl using for tax rate and opex?
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 10, 2014 10:46:14 GMT -8
Can anyone explain this number to me? It sure seems rather large! It is good until the end of 2017 and does NOT include any employee purchases through the ESOP.The maximum number of shares that may be issued or transferred pursuant to awards under the 2014 Plan as a result of applying the share limit formula described above will not exceed 109,477,000 shares, which is the sum of (i) the 55 million shares referred to above, plus (ii) the 16,608,000 shares available for new award grants under the 2003 Plan on November 11, 2013, plus (iii) the 3,361,000 shares subject to stock options previously granted and outstanding under the 2003 Plan as of November 11, 2013, plus (iv) two (2) times (the premium share counting ratio described below) the 17,254,000 shares subject to restricted stock and restricted stock units previously granted and outstanding under the 2003 Plan as of November 11, 2013). page 49: www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312513486406/d648739dpre14a.htm
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 10, 2014 11:06:27 GMT -8
Random thought after seeing the Red Friday photo: Perhaps Apple chose a later earnings report date this month so that they could get a more accurate read on China Mobile demand? Not positive or negative really, but just that guidance should be accurate than if it had been earlier.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 10, 2014 11:20:05 GMT -8
I've also written off some of my Jan positions. The question is - what is the minimum I need to do to close them out?
* 350 calls, obviously just sell them I suppose * 400 calls, same * 500 calls, same * 600 calls, allow to expire and that's it * 600/650 BCS, do I need to buy the short-end? sell the long-end? both?
Any advice is appreciated!
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Post by cbingle on Jan 10, 2014 12:07:42 GMT -8
If you were Tim Cook, how would you feel that after all your hard work, mind blowing and world changing inventions, that your personal future and company valuation was dictated by option traders.
I would be very pissed....but hey, that is just me.
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