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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 20, 2014 3:40:02 GMT -8
AAPL is ~$544 in Frankfurt ... but can't really go by that although it's certainly in the right direction. No numbers out of CHL or AAPL on this weekend as of right now. We aren't even certain there will be any. A little news out of Brazil - Nextel will be offering the latest iPhones down there: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/ Yesterday I posted the Braeburn numbers for this quarter - if you missed it, here ya go: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/Earnings are a week from today but his week there are some pretty big earnings releases like IBM, TXN, AMD, VZ, NFLX, JNPR, MSFT, etc. to mention but a few. Enjoy the rest of your holiday - congrats to Red and his Seahawks but my money is on Peyton and his Broncos for the Superbowl! Sorry, Red ... I prefer the somewhat more reserved players (in demeanor) and I love the comeback kid story.
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Jan 20, 2014 4:17:13 GMT -8
I agree they are mellow in Denver. I to am a Manning fan. I hope VZ numbers are good and MA splits this week. I have never lost money on a split and have sold half my purchase on the $50 run up to the split this time. I am anxious to see the stock performance after the split which is a 10/1.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 20, 2014 4:24:41 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 20, 2014 4:27:00 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 20, 2014 6:22:38 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 20, 2014 6:32:26 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2014 7:13:51 GMT -8
AAPL is ~$544 in Frankfurt ... but can't really go by that although it's certainly in the right direction. No numbers out of CHL or AAPL on this weekend as of right now. We aren't even certain there will be any. A little news out of Brazil - Nextel will be offering the latest iPhones down there: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/ Yesterday I posted the Braeburn numbers for this quarter - if you missed it, here ya go: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/Earnings are a week from today but his week there are some pretty big earnings releases like IBM, TXN, AMD, VZ, NFLX, JNPR, MSFT, etc. to mention but a few. Enjoy the rest of your holiday - congrats to Red and his Seahawks but my money is on Peyton and his Broncos for the Superbowl! Sorry, Red ... I prefer the somewhat more reserved players (in demeanor) and I love the comeback kid story. I hear you Phoebes.....the Seahawks faithfull are ecstatic and then we listen to Richard Sherman and the face plant is the only reaction...sigh... Verizon next...and PED has some early indicators of good iPad ASPs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2014 7:21:14 GMT -8
AAPL is ~$544 in Frankfurt ... but can't really go by that although it's certainly in the right direction. No numbers out of CHL or AAPL on this weekend as of right now. We aren't even certain there will be any. A little news out of Brazil - Nextel will be offering the latest iPhones down there: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/ Yesterday I posted the Braeburn numbers for this quarter - if you missed it, here ya go: tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/19/apple-iphone-q1-2014/Earnings are a week from today but his week there are some pretty big earnings releases like IBM, TXN, AMD, VZ, NFLX, JNPR, MSFT, etc. to mention but a few. Enjoy the rest of your holiday - congrats to Red and his Seahawks but my money is on Peyton and his Broncos for the Superbowl! Sorry, Red ... I prefer the somewhat more reserved players (in demeanor) and I love the comeback kid story. I hear you Phoebes.....the Seahawks faithfull are ecstatic and then we listen to Richard Sherman and the face plant is the only reaction...sigh... Verizon next...and PED has some early indicators of good iPad ASPs +1. R. Sherman put his foot in mouth, completely unnecessary and not representative of Seattle, really. And yes, iPad ASPs are going to do the trick for FQ1 Revenues.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 20, 2014 8:02:59 GMT -8
Looks like no announcement on china mobile sales
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 20, 2014 8:10:03 GMT -8
Verizon next...and PED has some early indicators of good iPad ASPs Did anyone else do the math on those iPad version breakdowns? Using the base price for each model as well as an estimated $449 for the iPad 4 in December 2013 (since it's no longer officially for sale), I get an ASP of 421 in 2012 and an ASP of 421.5 in 2013. I don't see how that data implies any sort of a meaningful jump in ASP. What am I missing?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2014 8:29:37 GMT -8
Who cares what Sherman said? Trash talking is hilarious. Guess who else were notorious trash talkers...Michael Jordon, Larry Bird, and perhaps the greatest trash talker of all time, Mohammed Ali. I see no issue with him calling Crabtree a mediocre receiver...he had 4 catches for 52 yards. Doesn't sound any better than mediocre to me.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 20, 2014 9:51:35 GMT -8
Benedict Evans tweets today:
"Looking at Umeng data indicating that there are 6x more of the iPhone 5S than the 5C active in China now".
"Umeng data suggests the iPad Air has outsold the Mini by 2:1 in China".
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 20, 2014 10:37:29 GMT -8
Who cares what Sherman said? Trash talking is hilarious. Guess who else were notorious trash talkers...Michael Jordon, Larry Bird, and perhaps the greatest trash talker of all time, Mohammed Ali. I see no issue with him calling Crabtree a mediocre receiver...he had 4 catches for 52 yards. Doesn't sound any better than mediocre to me. I could care less what Sherman said ON the field .... after the game is over that kind of stuff shows a huge lack of class as well as sportsmanship .... save it for the field. It will make for one hell of a game when they meet again ...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2014 11:03:35 GMT -8
Who cares what Sherman said? Trash talking is hilarious. Guess who else were notorious trash talkers...Michael Jordon, Larry Bird, and perhaps the greatest trash talker of all time, Mohammed Ali. I see no issue with him calling Crabtree a mediocre receiver...he had 4 catches for 52 yards. Doesn't sound any better than mediocre to me. I could care less what Sherman said ON the field .... after the game is over that kind of stuff shows a huge lack of class as well as sportsmanship .... save it for the field. It will make for one hell of a game when they meet again ... They asked him immediately after the game, after he went up to shake Crabtree's hand and Crabtree ignored him. He's full of adrenaline after the biggest play/game of his life. Crabtree apparently tried to fight him at some charity event, and they don't like each other. To play in the NFL you have to be a bit crazy on the field, you risk your livelihood every game where you know every game could be your last. It's the most testosterone filled sport around, which is what makes it so popular...then we expect these people to go from that to church going gentleman as soon as the game is over? I see no issue with anything he said...he doesn't like Crabtree, why should he say anything good about him? It's refreshing to see an athlete speak his mind instead of the usual PC quotes we get from almost all of them.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 20, 2014 11:12:23 GMT -8
I remember Ali's trash talking. Frankly, he was entertaining and often very funny. What I witnessed yesterday was not sportsmanship. Rules we abide by in our home was that you didn't talk yourself up or anyone down - you simply let your performance on the field speak loudly for itself. Think of all the "wonderful things" being said about Mr. Sherman today by sportscasters who would have pretty much covered what he ranted about.....the difference is that he didn't need to be the one to say it. So much chatter about his words in the media today instead of focusing on his great play. Ok - back to AAPL!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2014 11:57:40 GMT -8
It'd sure be nice to see Apple have a BLOWOUT quarter, like $16 EPS or something crazy. When was the last time Apple really had a WOW quarter? It's been almost 2 years. I'd just like one more, just to shut the naysayers up for a while.
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2014 12:18:57 GMT -8
Looks like no announcement on china mobile sales Maybe later or tomorrow. If not the FUD will be an avalanche. For example: "[Insert Analyst name] Apple and China Mobile have not announced sales due to anemic numbers. Therefore [Insert Analyst name] is lowering guidance to - $200/share"
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Post by appledoc on Jan 20, 2014 12:21:54 GMT -8
It'd sure be nice to see Apple have a BLOWOUT quarter, like $16 EPS or something crazy. When was the last time Apple really had a WOW quarter? It's been almost 2 years. I'd just like one more, just to shut the naysayers up for a while. I don't see how they would report outside of guided range without any guidance revision/update.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2014 12:27:49 GMT -8
They've done this once before (not counting fiscal Q4, of course).
Fiscal Q2 rev guide max $43B (first range guidance Apple had given out in a little while), actual $43.6B
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Post by po1nt on Jan 20, 2014 12:34:52 GMT -8
It'd sure be nice to see Apple have a BLOWOUT quarter, like $16 EPS or something crazy. When was the last time Apple really had a WOW quarter? It's been almost 2 years. I'd just like one more, just to shut the naysayers up for a while. I don't see how they would report outside of guided range without any guidance revision/update. +1 and if the do report out(which I think they might) it will only be by a small about.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 20, 2014 12:42:06 GMT -8
They've done this once before (not counting fiscal Q4, of course). Fiscal Q2 rev guide max $43B (first range guidance Apple had given out in a little while), actual $43.6B 1.4% Outside range. Maybe anything less that 2% goes without revision?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2014 12:46:29 GMT -8
SO little data to go on, but it's not TOO far out there to think Apple has the "green light" to report revs of around $59B without a guidance revision.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 20, 2014 12:53:30 GMT -8
SO little data to go on, but it's not TOO far out there to think Apple has the "green light" to report revs of around $59B without a guidance revision. Either way guidance will trump all.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2014 13:17:05 GMT -8
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Post by mstrmac on Jan 20, 2014 13:27:26 GMT -8
The comment section from that Forbes piece has agreeable opinions: Zabitsky • 4 hours ago Isn't it time to start thinking about why Apple's stock price is so out of whack with it's story? Miller does a great job stating the bull case but I believe that the stock has become the ultimate "options" stock and until the options game calms down, the stock is going to trade within a very defined range. Apple is often linked with Google and Amazon. Go to Yahoo Finance and take a look at the options activity of Apple/Google/Amazon. Just pick the months of January/February. The amount of Apple options is incredible compared to these other tech giants. I think Apple's overwhelmingly good news resonates with retail investors and plays right into the hands of the options markets. Maybe its a few hedge funds that are conspiring to bring it down. How can we blame Friday's drop on an uninformed NYT story? Do you really think there are that many bears waiting for the slightest of bad news to drop this puppy right before earnings? I believe this is an orchestrated event and will continue to be as long as retail investors choose to play the stock through options. 7 •Reply•Share › Avatar willo Zabitsky • 3 hours ago This guy. This guy gets it. I´ve been saying this for a long time. There are just too many out of sync trades on Apple, and it correlates to Max Pain Theory too much. A small group of Hedge Fund managers have worked out how to control the share through options. They are manipulating the stock to win big in the option market. Ped should investigate more. 1 •Reply•Share › Avatar Sacto_Joe willo • 3 hours ago I agree that the options market is influencing AAPL. I'm not convinced that there's some major active conspiracy behind it. I do think that there's a likelihood of some manipulation via negative stories, because they so obviously feed the volatility of the stock.
But it's much more complex than that, and IMHO, it really gets down to a "get rich quick" mentality that's pervaded the market more than anything else. That mentality is essentially what's driving the options market, and is what manipulators are taking advantage of.
But underpinning it all is the strength of Apple itself. When a company is showing such strength and certainty for the future, it becomes a "trampoline" for options. They can literally bounce on it as much as they want, because they know that eventually it will recover.
Apple has come up with a plan to dampen the volatility, however, and that's the stock buybacks. It is SO rich that it can literally make itself a major net buyer and holder of its own stock. Over time, that allows it to take up slack when the stock price gets submarined, buying back when it gets maximum bang for its buck. And for the long holder, that means that when the excess cash gets divided up, it'll be divided into fewer shares, making the remaining shares more valuable.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Apple's stock buyback plan is a genius move from the point of view of the long holder.
Edit: I voted my shares with Icahn.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 20, 2014 14:25:21 GMT -8
congrats to Red and his Seahawks but my money is on Peyton and his Broncos for the Superbowl! Sorry, Red ... I prefer the somewhat more reserved players (in demeanor) and I love the comeback kid story. Yep, Sherman is a classless bum. The irony is, not only is Manning a class act, but he does not just spew cliches in interviews. If you ever hear Manning interviewed, he actually answers the question and offers game analysis, since he is already running the game through his head again, since he is essentially a coach on the field. It is true that media relations staff try to make their players PC, but you don't have to denigrate your opponent to give a good interview (the problem is, most players are too dumb and inarticulate to do so). Trash talk is fine on the field, but in interviews, show your opponent respect. You don't see Champ Bailey or other Hall of Fame DB's running their yappers like that. It's called being a professional, not a child. It's also logically idiotic. If your opponent sucks, so what that you beat him? But if your opponent is a future Hall of Famer, and you just beat him, well then you must be pretty good. One thing the late, great Walter Payton said: "When you are good at something, you tell people about it. When you are great at something, people tell you." For those who haven't seen it, SI's piece on Manning is well worth a read. Definitely rooting for him, class guy, extremely cerebral, sick work ethic, dumped like a turd by that a team he put on the map and essentially built a stadium for. Much schadenfreude for the Colts. ************************ Once again, if Apple were to do a release on China Mobile sales, I seriously doubt it would be on MLK day. Go look at the 4 MLK-related tweets on Tim Cook's Twitter feed. C'mon people, think about it. Not saying there will be a release, but Cook is not Steve Jobs. ************************ I visited a Best Buy on Saturday, just to see some laptops up close. I need a big screen for various reasons, plus I want some upgradability, so MacBooks are out. Anyway, what struck me was, how huge Samsung's display area is, and how miniscule Apple's is. Samsung has this gigantic display, with a BB employee staffing the desk. This is aside from their 3-4 person general mobile desk. I had to actually ask an employee WTH the iPhones were. One tiny little kiosk (not my pics): Meanwhile, Samsung had its entire phone line out on two tables, with every one of them running some flashy video on their admittedly bright & gorgeous screens (not my pics): The pic above really doesn't do the current BB Samsung display justice. The phones have two full tables to themselves, and every single one of them is running some flashy demo, with a Samsung-specific sales guy hovering around at all times. Meanwhile, the iPhones sat all alone, dark, and inconspicuous. The truth is, I am highly inclined to like Apple products. I first used the Apple II in high school, a Mac Plus in college, and a IIfx in law school. I was an Apple guy before there were such things as Macs. I've also been long AAPL shares since 1993. But that display (granted, likely underwritten by Samsung's enormous marketing budget) made me a little jealous. They really were effective, because the videos looked awesome, and did a great job of disguising the generally Windows 95-looking UI on the S3's and S4's. I also finally admitted something to myself. I am 46, just beginning to experience myopia this year, and my hands have been called "pressed ham-like" by a friend. Frankly, the iPhone screen is just too small for me. I make errors *every time* I type on it, and I have found myself beginning to squint at the screen. Holding a 4.8" S3 in my hand, it was the perfect size for me (the S4's 5" seemed too big). Now, I am not here to tell Apple what it must do to be successful. But I have decided that if the new iPhones are not larger than the current 4" screen, I will be upgrading to another brand of phone (kind of ironic, since I went to BB because I had already written off MacBooks since they don't offer 17"). And if that Samsung display can make a guy with my inclinations feel that way, it is food for thought. I realize Best Buy is a dying, big box dinosaur, and that Apple sells about all the phones it can make. But something about that experience shook my confidence. Go to any other retailer that sells iOS devices (Fry's, Target, Wal-Mart), and you see the same neglect. Why not stick a part-time Apple employee in those stores? For my hands and eyes, bigger is better. /rant
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2014 14:36:13 GMT -8
It'd sure be nice to see Apple have a BLOWOUT quarter, like $16 EPS or something crazy. When was the last time Apple really had a WOW quarter? It's been almost 2 years. I'd just like one more, just to shut the naysayers up for a while. I don't see how they would report outside of guided range without any guidance revision/update. I don't see it as likely...but when was the last time Apple actually issued a guidance revision? Their own revision was a "yes we sold 9M opening week, but please don't take that as us crushing guidance, we're still only going to be at the top end of guidance" revision. All I'm saying is I'd think it's a small possibility that Tim wants to blow away expectations once more, I mean it can't be easy to accurately guide to a 3B range when you're talking about almost 60B in Revenue. Again, I'm not hopeful of a massive beat, but it'd sure be nice to get a positive surprise at earnings...it's been almost 2 years since one.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 20, 2014 14:46:01 GMT -8
I'm with you, I really like the larger screen (maybe not galaxy note big) but S3/S4 is really nice. I REALLLY hoping that Apple decides to introduce multiple screen sizes on the next version of the iPhone, then people can buy what they prefer. I would even pay more for a larger phone. ps. dont be bashful JD, the larger laptop screen you want is for porn!
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Post by rickag on Jan 20, 2014 14:53:41 GMT -8
The comment section from that Forbes piece has agreeable opinions: ... Apple's AAPL situation doesn't require a big conspiracy or much market manipulation. While sales did increase in 2013, it wasn't at anywhere near previous breakneck rates. And to top if off EPS declined. The big funds reduced exposure for that reason. The big funds stopped buying and many sold for probably a variety of reasons. The one reason that sticks in the back of my mind is any fund that handles both mutual funds and hedge funds would have a conflict of interest. Fidelity has stated as much and to this day I don't believe they control or offer any hedge fund investing.
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Post by po1nt on Jan 20, 2014 14:56:38 GMT -8
Also Verizon reports tomorrow pre-market....
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